Recommandations
L'entrée est le cours de clôture de l'actif à la date de publication. Le cours actuel est la dernière clôture enregistrée.
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Entrée $148,58 09 oct 2026Actuel $148,58 09 oct 2026Résultat +$0,00vs. indice +0,0% SPY +0,0% sur la même période
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Contexte de la transcription source
…ould watch service capabilities, roll out, economics, pricing, and losses of profitable subscribers. A headline moves the stock immediately. A lasting change in value depends on how competition affects the business and its cash generation. My verdict is a higher risk candidate for a staged purchase. Third, reflects apparent value rather than certainty. Next offers less estimated upside with stronger recent operating evidence supporting the demand behind the cash flow assumptions. And second is Taiwan Semiconductors, TSM. We can see it…
My verdict is a higher risk candidate for a staged purchase.
Contexte extrait par IA A headline moves the stock immediately. A lasting change in value depends on how competition affects the business and its cash generation. My verdict is a higher risk candidate for a staged purchase. Third, reflects apparent value rather than certainty.
Transcription Complète
$20 billion. That is the difference in this open AI headline. But before deciding the AI trade is breaking, we need to establish whether this reflects lost business or a different accounting comparison. Meanwhile, SpaceX has shaken telecom stocks, T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon, they're all sharply lower in the market. So, in fact, are we having a bargain handed to us? Or are we getting a warning that the future of these businesses have completely changed? These are all different risks, but have the same buying decision. Being below a high tells us what happened to a stock's price. It doesn't tell us whether that price offers an attractive return from here. So, today I'm ranking seven stocks for fresh money. We start with extraordinary growth at a demanding price. For each company, we'll identify what must happen for the current valuation to work. And then we're going to finish with a business that benefits from financing this investment boom. The valuation looks promising, but just a small change to the model, it makes the buying decision much tighter. That matters today. First though, let's separate the dates. We can see the smaller figure here concern September's annualized revenue. 70 billion here is a year-end expectation. An annualized run rate is also different from a completed year's reported sales. So, different treatment of partner sales explains the comparison. It doesn't establish a sudden $20 billion loss of customers. That distinction, it changes how I read the market's reaction. And you can see this chart explaining why those questions matter beyond technology. A handful of companies carry enormous market weight. We're going to listen to Scott Wapner describe the dependence. Then we'll separate concentration from a crash prediction. >> It speaks to the fragility of the trade itself. And I'm talking about the the tech trade. how exposed, leverage, whatever word you want to use that the entire trade and for that matter if we're talking about a trade that is essentially 40 plus% of the market the entire stock market is leveraged at the current time to open AI and anthropic in many respects the takeaway is dependence rather than direct exposure in every stock energy and technology they dominate this chart index strength it can hide weaker results elsewhere And that makes today's individual buying decisions much more important. I mean the spending is enormous. These are hypers scalar capital expenditures though not spending exclusively on AI. The scale creates opportunities across the buildout alongside a very large bill that future demand must justify. And here's the harder question. Usage increases while spending falls. Cheaper tokens they help customers. Suppliers need enough additional volume to offset lower prices and earn returns on their investment. Meanwhile, we've got bonds offering meaningful competition for investment capital, 5.3%. Stocks need to offer enough additional expected return to really justify taking the equity risk and the gap between stock returns and bond yields. That's the cushion that Ray Dallio discusses. We're going to listen to him explain why higher yields can coexist with rising shares and why the price we pay still matters. >> What's happened is that represented a cusher. In other words, when we started this cycle, the expected returns of equities were much higher than the expected returns of bonds. Because of that change in pricing, that cushion has come down. And so now you're starting to see credit spreads start to widen. you're starting to see that issue enter into it. So, we're in the part of the cycle where interest rates can rise um without um sending the equity market down because there's enough earnings growth and there's enough expected return. But with that cushion comes down, then you're coming later into that cycle. So, that's where we are. We know that we haven't yet put the brakes on. The takeaway there is higher rates alone do not give a reliable sell signal. We've got a historical table here including many positive periods. Earnings can absorb the pressure, but our entry price determines how much of a cushion that we have. Now, we're going to kick things off in seventh place with AMD. Now, just yesterday it was down. We're talking around 4%. But this is a company that we can see year to date has done absolutely phenomenal. up around 190% over the last 5 years is up around 500% trading around all-time highs that sits around $658 where we still get even after this run a double strong buy from Wall Street Quan seeking out for buy but this is on the weekend. So bear in mind, even a small pullback yesterday after a huge rally, it doesn't establish any value. And worth pointing out that even though we get an average price target for AMD from analysts at 636, which implies only 2 to 3% upside, more bullish analysts, they see this going well above $1,000, $1,250 to be precise. And maybe you can see that especially when we look at the growth. The case here is very powerful. We've got forward revenue expectations accelerating to 51%. I mean, if we look at EPS even faster at 68, long-term EPS over the next 3 to 5 years sitting at 65. So, investors have good reasons for excitement. My concern today is how much they're already paying for it. And the revenue chart, it makes the excitement tangible. Forecast rise sharply beyond the latest reported period. Now, obviously, these future bars are estimates, but the steepness represents what AMD must deliver rather than performance that's already completed. But here's the counterweight. We're talking about a company that's trading 82 times forward adjusted earnings. Excellent growth can still produce a disappointing investment if the entry price requires the company to exceed all the enormous expectations. This is trading 105% richer than their own 5-year average. Now the bullish response to that is that the multiple falls quickly as earnings expand. That happens in these forecasts as we can see but it depends on delivering those profits. Today's price does not automatically become cheap with time. And these rack capacity projections explain why expectations are so large. They connect deployment to major revenue possibilities. Now the analyst estimates not commitments guaranteeing every projected deployment becomes attractive profitable revenue for AMD. where the road map strengthens the technology case. This target describes an intended performance improvement rather than achieves earnings increase. Now, better hardware still needs customer demand and attractive commercial economics before shareholders ultimately receive the benefit. And you can see the revisions here show analysts raising forecast aggressively. This is analyst research. Bigger estimates, they strengthen the opportunity, but they also raise the hurdle for results that will end up satisfying investors. Now translate that opportunity into cash. We can see 2025 free cash flow was 5.5 billion. Analysts are forecasting 10 billion from 2026 where we've used a middle rate growth sitting around 20%. That ultimately gives us $468. When we look at that is actually downside. We're talking around 26%. But what I would say here is the strongest scenario. We have the higher rate. That's quite revealing. 25% growth. we can note in fact comes to $626. That's pretty much around fair value today despite what you could argue here is a demanding expansion assumption. So my verdict for a company that we see to have around 35% premium Wall Street very minimal upside is wait for a better entry. Stronger cash flow evidence could lift this estimated value. A lower price could create protection today. The base case leaves too little room for disappointing execution. Now, the AI uncertainty, it explains yesterday's sector backdrop. It doesn't prove AMD's demand collapsed. Equally, the bounce that we're seeing, although fairly minimal, around 2% as of recording in the pre-market, is not evidence that cash flow prospects improve. For fresh money, this price just asks too much of the future. Seventh means weakest value among these seven candidates. It doesn't mean weakest technology or automatically requiring existing shareholders to sell. Now, before we move into number six, just want to flag that I released yesterday a free copy going through McDonald's. In fact, the entire deep dive, dividend safety, turnaround, what I believe the shares are worth. I release one every single week covering severely undervalued stocks, as well as what's going on in the market. You can click below on the pin comments, sign up, read all of these straight away. In sixth place, we have CocaCola. Now, it gained around 2% yesterday. It's a familiar defensive business which feels reassuring during technology uncertainty. But the reassurance is valuable only at the right entry price. Year to date very strong up 26% over the last year 33. Over the last 562 over the last 10 it has underperformed the S&P 500 where we can see trading towards 52- week highs. We get one respectable buy that's coming from Wall Street. And in terms of their predictions, they see around 8% upside on average over the next year, $945, some as high as 104. More bears see it falling to 75. And the revenue history here supports the durability argument. Consumers repeatedly buy these products. Still, the share price, it can move differently from the underlying sales. So owning a dependable business and earning a tractor return, they're completely separate questions. Now, forward revenue growth, it is fairly modest. Here we can see earnings expectations. They're coming in stronger at 7% around 7 1/2 over the longer term. It leaves less room to overpay because growth has a smaller opportunity to rescue an expensive entry. Now the yield it is below the 5-year average. We're talking 2.4. 5year coming at 2.9 while the forward earnings multiple sits above 26 versus 23. Both suggest a richer price. Familiar products do not eliminate the risk of paying too much. In fact, we look at this typically and say a potential overvaluation signal which when we look at the blue tunnel from simply safe dividends gives us a similar answer. It's sitting right there at the upper end of the blue tunnel pointing out intrinsic fair price over the last 5 10 years. Very very rare to see this in a severely undervalued level. You'd have to go end of 23 and then back to the COVID drop. It's also a company that we can see has raised dividends. We're talking around 4% over the last five over the last 10 years. On top of that, we also see this is a dividend king with more than 50 years of consecutive increases. And we also know they've been paying a dividend for the last 106 years without a reduction. There's also no apparent risk when we take a look at the dividend and the payout. Whether you look at the earnings ratio or the free cash flow, both of them on a training basis sitting around the mid60%. And likewise, net debt to EBIT are where we want to see below four for this industry is hitting 1.61 coming all the way down from the highs of 2020 expected to continue to fall over the next year. And analysts are forecasting a growth from free cash flow into 26 sitting around 12.4 billion. It matches the company's outlook. This does anchor their calculation. Just bear that in mind. The demanding part I'd say here is 10% annual free cash flow growth and that is over the longer term. And then when we compare that with the growth screen, we can see here in fact free cash flow expected to grow 44% over the next year. Obviously a strong near-term cash flow recovery doesn't establish 10% annual growth for a decade. We need to see recurring improvement rather than permanently extending one favorable comparison into the future. Now the combined valuation here comes to $81. We can see here in fact price today sitting around $87. So it indicates no margin of safety is a premun 8% which is slightly better than what we saw from AMD. If we solely look at the DCF that comes to 87 which pretty much tells us bang on fair value where the other methods ultimately pull it down to around 80 leaving limited protection today. Now the 8% discount rate here matters too with meaningful bond yields available. I want enough expected return for equity risk. Requiring a higher return reduces what I should pay for future cash flows. Now yesterday's strength fit with defensive rotation. Although that's an interpretation rather than a verified company catalyst. The dividend remains appealing. At this yield, earnings growth must contribute meaningfully to the overall return. My verdict is a hold or wait for a better entry around the combined valuation. It becomes more interesting. A discount beneath it improves protection. Now in fifth place, we have the oil giant Chevron that was up over 3% yesterday. and the market backdrop it directly helps the business but the conditions supporting today's profit they can change very quickly for investors now it's up nearly 40% year to date similar over the last year up nearly 100% over the last five whereas trading around all-time highs we can see strong buy from quant respectable buy from Wall Street weaker buy from seek Alpha now oil surge helps explain the energy bid yesterday's strength supports the earnings backdrop but it doesn't establish that crude just keeps rising from here and we can see in their most recent earnings they had a very strong quarter adjusted EPS that was a strong beat. Chevron produces substantial profits. The buying question is how much of the strength survives under less favorable commodity conditions. Now, Wall Street, they see limited upside at least on average, we're talking 6 to 7%, projected price 225, higherend 250, lowerend 175. Where when we take a look the earnings and cash flow forecast, they look stronger than revenue growth. I mean revenue projections sitting around 3%, EPS forecasted sitting around 14, free cash flow sitting very high 35%. It helps the case. Energy expectations still depend on prices, margins and production and that can change the growth picture faster than investors anticipate. Now the yield it is below the 5year average 3.4% 5year 4.05 earnings multiple pretty much in line with the 5year. Neither of these really scream bargain. a lowook multiple. It needs scrutiny when favorable commodity conditions are helping the earnings beneath it. And we also get a reasonable signal when we take a look at the blue tunnel sitting around mid to uptrend. Look at the last 5 10 years. It really highlights the cyclicality of the industry. Sometimes we see it very high at a peak then it comes down. Looks like though at the beginning of the year this was the trough. Now we're seeing it rise again. It's also very similar in nature when we look at it compared to Coca-Cola. We're talking around a 5% increase to the dividend every single year over the last 10. It's also a dividend aristocrat. 25 plus years of consecutive increasing it while paying a dividend for the last 114 without a reduction. Nothing to flag here either when we look at the power ratio 64% trading 12 month earnings wise free cash flow wise sitting at 51%. And likewise net debt ebidar looks very strong.5 expected to lower to below.4 4 and we can see solely on a DCF basis where we've used 7% growth rate it comes to $235. So it is an attractive cash flow valuation. Remember though here the reliability of this growth here it matters more than the output. Reverse DCF coming in slightly lower at 5.7%. And the combined valuation with all four models coming to $219. Now this equates to a margin of safety very small though. We're talking around 4%. The dividend overall it contributes to returns but the entry it leaves limited room for valuation mistakes. And let's say we were to change the growth rate from 7% to 4% while the value falls to $182. We don't need to predict an oil collapse to see the model is sensitive to more moderate expansion. My verdict is watch rather than chase the rally. A lower price it improves the case. So does evidence that stronger cash generation can endure beyond today's favorable oil conditions. I want that protection before committing. Chevron, it earns fifth because current profits and income provide a clearer foundation than the names below it. The thin valuation cushion keeps it behind the remaining candidates. Next, growth strengthens and the assumptions become demanding. Now, fourth, we have Eli Liy. Strong demand. However, it cannot tell us whether today's entry price is attractive. up 9% year to date, 38 over the last year, up 400 over the last five, trading towards the upper end of the 52- week range. Been a while since we did a deep dive. In fact, it was lower than the 52- week low when we flagged this when many insiders were buying. We can see here Wall Street gives it a near strong buy rating. Seek Alpha weaker buy. And at least over the next year, Wall Street sees around 14% upside, although some see the average price target is too low. 1330 they sit around 1,600. Now revenue and earnings expectations they explain the appeal. Cash flow growth well that looks even fast here. We're talking 103% but it is a near-term forecast. A rapid improvement from the current base cannot automatically become its permanent annual growth rate. And Mount Jaro sales have expanded rapidly and overtaken the competing product we can see here. Ompic it supports Lily's momentum. This compares these products though rather than measuring the entire market for every obesity and diabetes treatment worldwide and read the horizontal axis carefully weeks since each launch. The lines therefore cover different calendar dates. The chart basically illustrates development after launch while prescription tracking. It can also miss sales through some distribution channels. Now this 7 in 10 headline it describes a specific group of new senior patients not ly share of the entire global market. The competitive advantage remains meaningful without extending that statistic beyond the population it actually measures. This broader revenue trend it provides firm evidence expansion is visible across reported periods. Recent results show strong volume growth alongside lower realized prices reminding us that greater demand and pricing pressure they can coexist and revenue growth it becomes more valuable when profits expand alongside it. We can see this chart basically showing both a declining earnings multiple can result from growing earnings. It doesn't necessarily require the share price itself to fall. Now the forward P here we do see it sitting at 28 against the 5-year average of 38. essentially improving the relative valuation case. The dividend small most expected return, it depends on future earnings and cash generation rather than the income that's collected along the way. And we still get an undervaluation signal when we look at the blue tunnel. We've pretty much seen this for quite some time. Although just look from 2021 to 2025, it was trading at a massive massive premium. Since then, the actual underlining metrics have only gotten stronger and stronger. The price for now has yet to catch up. Now we can see free cash flow 9 billion last year. Analysts projecting around 20 billion. That is a massive massive jump. And by using the middle rate of around 20%, will we get a value just above $1,400 indicating around 21% upside obviously conditional on achieving this demanding assumption at 15% growth while falls to just below $1,000 indicating 15% downside. basically telling us Lily can keep growing impressively and still miss the investment return implied by a more optimistic entry. That's the distinction between strong growth and attractive entry. Lily could meet impressive operating expectations while cash generation falls short of our model. I'd want to watch delivered cash flow alongside the sales. Now raise the discount rate from 8 to 9% with unchanged growth and the value falls to $1,123. It removes the apparent discount. So the return requirement matters alongside the impressive operating story. My verdict is considered selectively with a demanding valuation case. Fourth balances strong operating evidence against sensitive assumptions. Next is a larger apparent discount attached to a business facing a newly intensified competitive risk. And in third it is T-Mobile. We can see here down 16% year to date, but in the pre-market it's down 8% alongside the likes of Verizon and AT&T. Now over the last 12 months, not that great either. Down 24. Over the last five, it is up. We're talking 41% but pretty much down from the peak in March 25. Also trading around 52- week lows. It'll probably open at a new 52- week low where prior to that we had a near strong buy from Wall Street Quant. Seeking Alpha gave it a weak buy rating. Now the sector overall is reacting to SpaceX Spectrum deal in mobile ambitions. It reassesses future competition rather than reflecting newly reported quarterly deterioration at T-Mobile. The distinction helps frame the risk without dismissing it. And follow the transactions. T-Mobile sold Spectrum to Grain. SpaceX is acquiring Grain's portfolio. The reported SpaceX deal value is not a fresh payment of the amount straight into T-Mobile's bank account. Where SpaceX competitive intent is real. It doesn't establish that an equivalent nationwide consumer service exists today. infrastructure approval and commercial execution. It influences the threat speed. Investors must evaluate that development rather than assume the outcome. Now, prior to this news, we can see Wall Street were expecting around $241 as an average price target. The upside, well, it'd be more than 40% sitting something around 50% based on the price if it holds at the pre-market drop. T-Mobile's forecast still shows revenue and earnings growth. We're talking 6.6% 6% forward revenue, long-term EPS around 18%. They provide the starting business case. We should revisit them though if competition affects pricing, customer retention, or the spending required to keep profitable subscribers on the network. Now, we can see the forward multiple was sitting around 14 below the 5year average of 20 before the news. It makes the price interesting. The new competition risk means we must test future cash generation rather than purchase the historical discount mechanically. And you can see here blue tunnel undervalued signal. This will only in fact drop further and further after the drop. So it will be a wider discount over the last 5 10 years. This is a company we're talking all the way back to 2023 where investors just haven't been willing to pay a premium or in fact a reasonable price. Now we can see last year's free cash flow was around 20 billion. Forecast actually see it lower in 26 to around 18 billion. So after that really we're talking just 2% of the middle rate much less demanding than AMD or Lily. Slower growth can still produce value at a sufficiently attractive entry. Now at this value we do see quite a large margin of safety around 21%. And if we were to go back to the forecast and if we were just to use zero so no growth in fact over the longer term we get $163 which we can see pretty much looking at fair value. But it does not demonstrate that deteriorating cash generation leaves investors protected from the downside. Bonds, they also compete for our money. The dividend cannot settle the choice by itself. Listen to this discussion of bond yields. Then we'll connect it directly to the return assumption in T-Mobile's valuation. >> I I think that there's two things that investors need to think about. one um actually if you're if you're you've been you have enjoyed three straight years of very strong equity performance um bond yields at these at these levels are actually kind of attractive and so there's really no reason if you're actually feeling concerned about what's happening underneath the surface that you can't potentially pick up some yields here and allocate a little bit more to bonds which seems counterintuitive Scott since all we're talking about is the Fed raising rates and having uh you know the average rate hiking cycle just so everybody knows isn't 50 or 75 basis points it's 300 100 basis points. And so if you really want to talk about a protracted rate hiking cycle, we have a much different dialogue. We don't think that's going to happen. And so if you don't think that's going to happen, yields are probably pretty attractive here. >> Her rate outlook is an opinion. For our buying decision, the takeaway is that alternatives exist. Raising the model's discount. Let's go from the 8% to 9%. Well, we can see here the value falls to $152. I would watch service capabilities, roll out, economics, pricing, and losses of profitable subscribers. A headline moves the stock immediately. A lasting change in value depends on how competition affects the business and its cash generation. My verdict is a higher risk candidate for a staged purchase. Third, reflects apparent value rather than certainty. Next offers less estimated upside with stronger recent operating evidence supporting the demand behind the cash flow assumptions. And second is Taiwan Semiconductors, TSM. We can see it was down around 3% yesterday. AI sentiment affects the shares, but we've got fresh operating evidence. So, let's assess the business independently of yesterday's reaction. Where it's up 51% year to date, similar over the last year, 316 over the last five, trading near all-time highs, strong buy from Wall Street, respectable buy from Seek Alpha, and their September sales increased roughly 55% from a year earlier. Where Wall Street see 555 is the average price target over the next year. 21% upside some as high as $700. And our growth screen here is supports the demand strength. Forward revenue, we can see that 38% earnings expectations 46 over the next year long-term sitting at 36. Obviously, they remain forecast, but the latest monthly sales gives us reported evidence of expansion rather than only distant possibilities for the business. And I'd say this return on capital chart. It supports the high ranking. TSM has generated strong returns from invested money. It matters when building capacity requires major spending before the new facilities can begin producing revenue and profits. Now obviously the price is not universally cheap. We can see a forward multiple 23 above the 5-year of 21 with the yield below the average. Quality deserves recognition but investors in entry that leaves attractive expected returns. And the blue tunnel, well, it's right there. In fact, at the upper end of the fair price over the last 5 years, we can see most recent time undervalued signal was mid 2025. Now, the DCF jumps from 32 billion in 25 to projected by analysts sitting around 40 billion and then the middle rate of around 20% growth. Strong sales, they support the argument. Margins and capital expenditure determine how much of the demand ultimately becomes cash. That gives us a price here $515 indicating around 11% upside. The quality case is stronger than the size of the valuation cushion. Fresh sales strengthen demand argument, but they don't answer every question. Monthly revenue cannot establish the full margin picture or the cash cost of expanding capacity. Those still matter when translating growth into value. And at 15% the value falls to 371. That would still represent strong expansion. Yet we can see it would indicate 20% downside. Good growth does not automatically justify every entry valuation. And the reverse calculation here it indicates 18.4%. It's a meaningful hurdle even with strong demand. So we should recognize what we need before buying. Now capital efficiency makes me more comfortable considering that hurdle. It distinguishes productive expansion from simply spending more. Past returns cannot guarantee every new facility performs equally well but strengthen the operating evidence behind the case. Now geographic concentration also belongs in this decision. We can see here the cash flows they can't eliminate geopolitical uncertainty. The price I require and the position size I accept. They should also reflect risk beyond these forecasted numbers. My verdict is a consider measured entry with more interest at a larger discount. Second, combines demand evidence, capital returns, and a plausible valuation. It doesn't imply the present margin for error is wide. Now, the October 15th earnings report test margin, spending, and guidance behind these sales. That's the cash flow checkpoint. Now, let's move to first place where the opportunity comes from financing activity rather than making the chips themselves. Now, first we have Moody's. So we can see it's down 10% year to date, down six over the last year. Over the last five, up 27 over the longer term, though it has outperformed the S&P, up 328, trading towards 52- week lows, respectable buy from Wall Street, very weak buy from Seek Alpha. And Moody's earns revenue, evaluating debt across these categories. Financing activity therefore matters to results. Barring generates demand for ratings without Moody's owning the finance projects or needing those projects to become the winning technology. The industry chart here shows substantial approaching debt maturities. It comes from S&P Global, not Moody's book revenue. Refinancing needs create potential activity, but borrowers still decide when to issue and which financing channels to use. Wall Street, well, they like it. They see around 22% upside. Price target 560 range 470 lower and 610 on the upper end. Now the growth screen here it's more modest than AMD or Lily. Forward revenue growth that's just shy of 8% with faster earnings expectations around 15. It becomes attractive when the price requires less spectacular performance to reward new shareholders. And recent cash generation is central to the appeal. Higher forecasted bars we can see extend the opportunity but remain estimates. Their reported free cash provides the firmer foundation. The future bars describe the improvement we still need delivered. Now the forward multiple is below the average 26 one of the lowest in the last 5 years. 5year average 32 33 yield slightly above. It is small. This is mainly a compounding case with a more favorable relative entry than several other candidates. Well, you'll notice an undervaluation signal when we look at the blue tunnel. Over the last 5 10 years, we've pretty much really only seen this in a severely undervalued this year. Prior to that, over the last 10 years, this one has looked either in a reasonable value or trading at a premium. Now, we can see expectations of a free cash flow to jump 2.6 billion to 2.8 in 2026. This is the outlook and that was actually reduced from the earlier range. So, the ankid say overall here is grounded. But the latest guidance is not uniformly improving. In fact, their latest quarter showed strong ratings revenue helped by AI infrastructure financing that connects to our opening. Moody's earns from financing the buildout. While investors in the builders must earn returns on those projects and refinancing that also adds potential demand, a maturity does not guarantee Moody's a fee at a fixed date. Borrowers can refinance early, choose other funding channels, or issue less than the industry totals might initially suggest. Now, with 12% cash flow growth and an 8% discount rate, we get $570. That suggests around 20% in terms of a margin of safety. In terms of upside, we're talking around 24%. But now comes the crucial qualification. If we raise the discount rate from 8 to 9% where we can see in fact it becomes fair value today, the discount largely disappears. So, first place doesn't mean cheap under every reasonable return requirement investors may choose. The lower historical multiple supports the case, but can't override the sensitivity. An old average doesn't guarantee rebound. I would personally use it alongside cash generation rather than make it the whole buying thesis. Moody's it stands out through established cash generation, less demanding growth than the fastest growing candidates, and exposure to financing demand. The case asks it to compound a proven business rather than validate an entirely new profit model. And the weaker growth case deserves attention. 10% annual expansion value shares around $492 with an 8% discount rate. The smaller cushion is another reason enthusiasm should not become an oversized purchase. My verdict is a strongest candidate for a modest stage entry under these assumptions. Requiring a higher return means needing a lower price and relative attractiveness does not remove the importance of the entry price. It earns Moody's first place. The case compares favorably with the group while the margin remains conditional. I want that condition clear before purchasing rather than discovered after growth slows or my return requirement increases. So let's have a quick recap. Seventh down to first 7 AMD offering extraordinary growth at a price requiring extraordinary execution. I'd wait for a better balance between the entry price and the cash flow evidence. Coca-Cola and sik provide stability at a fulll looking valuation. The risk differs from AMDs, but the discipline is the same. A business I feel comfortable owning is not automatically attractive at the price of a first purchase. CVX in fifth place. The earnings backdrop helps, but the combined valuation cushion is thin. I would keep it on the watch list and avoid chasing oildriven strength. The entry must work beyond today's favorable commodity conditions. Eli Lillian fourth. It offers powerful growth, but the valuation depends on ambitious cash generation. I would consider it selectively. A lower price or stronger delivered cash flow would give me more confidence in the margin of safety. In third place, T-Mobile is the more uncertain opportunity. A lower price facing stronger competition. The base case merits attention if the cash flow holds up. I'd approach gradually and keep testing the evidence behind the valuation. In second place, TSM. Well, it ranked here because fresh demand and strong capital returns support the case. I would maintain discipline on assumptions and the position size. A good report strengthens the valuation argument. It cannot replace one. And Moody's is my first choice under these assumptions. But let me know in the comments below which would you investigate first and what return would you require. Don't forget to smash the like button if you enjoy the episode. Hit the subscribe and bell button for notification of future releases. And if you click on the pin comment sign below, you can read all of these straight away. More importantly though, have a great day. I'll see you all on the next
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