JHSF3: IMPORTANTE SABER ISSO ANTES DE INVESTIR EM JHSF

Let's go, everyone, let's talk about JHSF. You've been there following and monitoring these recent movements. Just to give you an idea, in these last few periods, the stock has already risen almost 20%. I’m bringing you an updated report, a bit more to help us understand this dynamic, to know if the stock has really lost steam, if it's a structural or fundamental problem with the company, and what we can take away here to include in our investment thesis or our thesis of caution and waiting. First of all, my name is Bruno Quimarelli and I bring you daily content about the financial market, especially stocks and funds. And if you are new to the channel, I invite you to leave that like, also consider subscribing to our channel and sharing our content. Well, I want to be very quick and concise. All the data I gathered here, including new information, came from the company's own investor relations department. So I’ve brought it here, taking all the financial statements, especially the nuances and the post-statement comments , which bring plenty of important details for building our thesis, and I’ve made a summary that I will share with you. Well, what do we have here? Just to introduce JHSF, we have a sector of development and recurring income, right, especially targeting the high-income public. The stock has changed recently by carrying out a development project, and it offers totally predictable dividends. Many even call it a real estate fund stock, right? As if it were a hybrid between a stock, right? Between being a shareholder and a quota holder of a real estate fund. I don't really agree with that, especially because the company has interesting organic growth, which is what we will talk about from now on. Well, what can we understand? It made several zigzags, all of them pointing upwards, especially in April and May, when it surged, going from R $ 9 to R $ 14.07, right? In other words, there was an expressive rise here when we look at the chart. So, just for you to observe from here to there, look, it went from this price level to this price level with a 64, 65%gain, right? And then it lost all that momentum quickly. It fell by about 26%, and what we have now is this sideways movement, right? In other words, between 10 and 11.50. But starting from this moment, right, from this bottom, it engaged in an uptrend, following the macro movements of the stock market, of more than 15%. We need to know if this is just a hiccup, by tracking the key indicators, or if there is some fundamental reason behind it. So let's go. The first thing we'll observe is that the stock partially lost steam, yes, but for technical reasons and not fundamental ones. The April rally was motivated by expectations. Second quarter of '24 released, it was a record, better than any second quarter or first half in the company's history, right? In other words, we had an important milestone here in revenue, but the market had already priced in much of this, shifting focus to the increase in gross debt used to finance growth. This created a classic divergence. Fundamentals hitting a record, price correcting by 25 to 30%. The September movement suggests that this divergence started to be corrected by the market, but it still hasn't recovered its high, right, near R $ 14.07? Right? It's basically digesting all these results after having been a record, right? There are still some points that deserve attention, such as debt taken on in order to grow. Numbers , sources from the earnings release. Gross revenue up 80%, be careful as there were some accounting factors here . Adjusted Ebitda up 100%, 53%margin. Net income 80%, 47%margin, net cash 1.2 billion, positive net cash position, no debt. But here, look, it fell 35%in the quarter because the company took on short-term debt to finance the expansion, to be replaced by an 800 million real estate bond (CRI), that move we had mentioned. Another thing, too, all recurring income businesses grew, especially malls, airport, hospitality, gastronomy, residential, and club. And JHSF Capital itself, which has, just here is the AUM, the assets under management, which is about 12 billion. That's quite a lot. JHSF doesn't deny its DNA is truly for high income. Even in their presentation, they place a pyramid here showing that 1%of the population holds more than 50% of the world's wealth. So these are the guys they are aiming at, okay? Not the middle or the base of the pyramid, mere mortals like us, right? But the top of the pyramid here. Some insider moves. Insider is basically the movement of those who are within the company. It is different from the buyback program. In which the company buys with the sole objective, right? That is, to increase their shareholding. Here, insiders, it's as if the board were buying shares , partly because they understand what's happening inside, to strengthen their position, you know? And here in July 26 , the latest report showed a very important purchase at 10.55. Let's take a look, checking the fundamentals here, the last reported purchase, 600,000 shares, right? 600,000. And look who did it, right? It was done by the controller, there was activity, they made spot purchases on the 7th, on the 13th, 400,000 and 200,000 shares. They bought at 10.46, 10.74, resulting in that average price. They were the only ones to trade in July, because here the board of directors didn't, the executive board didn't, the fiscal council didn't, and neither did the technical bodies. So, we had a very interesting movement and from time to time there's strong activity, look, 600,000, 4.5 million, 12 million shares , almost 1 million shares, just for you to observe here in these last 10, 12 months, okay? So, the guys are really buying. These are some forward contracts. Here is the actual valid purchase and here also some other contracts. That's why the price ends up being different. But one thing is a fact, the controllers, the executives here, the insiders as we call them, are putting shares in their pockets, there's no selling here, at least in this short term, okay? So they are demonstrating strong confidence in their own company. There's even the reading our artificial intelligence agent makes here, you know, to interpret this movement. Look, there's no record of relevant selling, only buying; most importantly, the largest purchase of 12 million occurred in January, near the lows, and the second largest of 4.7, 4.4 in May, right at the beginning of the correction, with an average price 0.96 below the quote. This indicates that those who know the business best, the controller, the family, bought during the correction and didn't sell during the strength, right? Look, it's a positive structural sign, it reduces the free float, reinforces the alignment of interests, and usually happens in price recovery cycles, but it also increases share concentration, naturally, it all goes to the controller, which already characterizes, which is already a historical feature of the stock, right? The family holds about 40%of the company's traded capital. So, this is a point for you to observe. Even if you want to observe the history, you can come here to Investsite. It even has some interesting information for you to grab, look, JHSF 3, select it. Then you will come down here to share ownership, look, down here, see. Let me just get rid of this bar here. Shareholding control. Then you'll see here, look, the guys who have the biggest stake, look. Right here. JSF also has participation from individuals, right? Look, José. Auriemo Neto, okay? 3.75. Then others and free float, look. If you take this guy, which is the company's own corporation, you can see its participation history. You can visualize the chart here, you can see, look there, they had, let's take this line here, look, percentage of shares, right, they had 51, 39, 39, 40, and now 39. Okay, let's see how it looks for the individual now. Let's take the individual here, basically the founder. I've got the chart view here. Let's see , look. Take a look, look. He had 5%, then 5, then it jumped to 11, he even had 14%of the company's shares, then 23 fell to three, now it increased a bit, 3.75, okay? About 25 million company shares in the last reported data. So, all of this is interesting for you to be able to analyze the company's history, the history of the controllers , of the founders, so you can gather this information, right, and thus have more foundation to build your thesis. So, let's go. Now we reach that point, right? Is it worth investing? We have on one side the positive aspect, right, which would be the bull case, and we have here the cautious aspect, which would be the bear case, right? So let's consider the positives first. Record results quarter after quarter with a transition strategy to recurring income , reducing cyclic dependence on development, which happens with many, not just in development, but also in construction, right? JSF is a little different from that. Positive net cash, meaning no debt. Insiders buying consistently. The market consensus is a strong buy, okay? So five to six analysts recommend buying. Target price from 10 to 14. Robust expansion pipeline, meaning there's already a mall, more residences, expansion, business growth, executive aviation in the United States, anyway, JSF doesn't stop, right? And monthly dividend distribution, about 6 cents per month here in the last 12 months, hitting about 6%, that's without taking into account, right? 6%now. But if you take into account this price here of 7 BRL, which was back at the end of last year or the beginning of this year, right? End of last year, beginning of this year, if you take 7 BRL here, it's paying 6 cents, the dividend yield comes to almost 10%, okay? Coming back now, what do we have? Oh yes, now we have the BER scenario, right? For those who prefer to maintain a certain level of caution. Oh, folks, before that, comment in the comments section if you invest or intend to invest in JHSF, what is your average price, okay? So, let's go. Points of attention: extremely volatile stock, double-digit variation in weeks, recent debt increase, about 16%in the quarter to finance growth. High shareholder concentration, meaning the owners themselves hold almost 40%of the company. Part of the second-quarter results was strong, but driven, right, by a one-time accounting recognition of the sale of Boa Vista stock, states the filing, right? It's worth separating what is recurring from what is just occasional. And the average market target price, more or less 10 BRL, is below the current quote. So, these are the points of caution here. And before concluding our final verdict, oh, if you want to have access, right, to how I build and how you can build these reports in a practical, fast, and simple way, without any emotional or biased viewpoint, meaning, you are the owner of the information, I recommend that you check out our training here, which is Investing with Artificial Intelligence. It's at a promotional price of 67 BRL, it will go to 700 BRL now, in this next week. And here you have a direct training that will show you, no fluff, how to build your own reports, make your own rankings, analyze companies based on news, know how news impacts your assets, comparative ranking, right? Comparing one company to another. All this for just 67, okay? It's not 12 payments of 67, it's just 67 BRL, okay? And all the tools here are free that you use within the training, okay? Promotional price, link in the description and in the comments. So let's go. What is the final verdict? Taking this, painting it yellow now, right? I was painting it blue and it disappears. You complained about it, right? Really, I apologize. So, let's go. JHSF hasn't lost the thesis, it lost its rhythm. The asset went through a healthy correction after a rally in April, but the second-quarter fundamentals were the best in its history. Cash remains positive, insiders are buying, no. And euphoria. The September recovery reinforces the reading that the market is starting to reconcile price and fundamentals again. For those who have a history of following the stock, the 11.75 level is still closer than the correction buy range relative to April's high. But the dispersion in target prices, between 6.50 and 15, shows a divergence of opinion regarding the company's growth and future, right? This should not be ignored. So, basically here, for those following along, catching this price closer to recent lows, between 10.20 and 10.50, would be ideal. Here, basically, it is at its highest, post-record price, right? So, at this moment, there is a lot of euphoria. For me, if I consider my investment thesis, I would wait a little longer, especially for a post-euphoria correction here. And you, what do you intend to do? Guys, if you are interested in personalized consulting, an analysis of your portfolio, or personalized follow-up, don't forget to call me on WhatsApp. I will leave the link posted both in the description and in the comments. Did you like the content? Consider leaving that like, subscribing to our channel, and sharing our video here. Thank you for your attention. See you later. Ciao . Ciao.