BULL TRAP WARNING: Why the Market Dropped After GREAT Job Report?

Hey, what's going on guys? It's Ricky with Tactical Solutions. A quick little market update. The question you guys might be asking is why did markets move the way that they did 1 hour before markets open? Well, to a big surprise, we actually had the non-farm payrolls come in at a big just unexpected um surprise. So, let's go ahead and just quickly talk about it. Nasdaq market right when this report came out dumped, right? From highs of 721, almost 722, all the way down to lows of 717. Um and the rest of tech followed. BTC aggressively sold off shortly after this was announced. Uh let me go ahead and see if I can pull it up here. BTC uh from highs of 81K all the way to lows of 79K. Now, it doesn't mean that it can't recover since markets aren't officially open. Uh at least not by the time I'm filming this. Um as again, markets are irrational. They're always looking for reason to recover. I just wanted to come on here very quickly and explain why. I want you to understand. So, today like many of you guys um understood, today we had a non-farm payroll and unemployment report that was supposed to be released. Let me go ahead and refresh this here. Uh just so you could see exactly what was actually reported. So, 1 hour before the market opened, the unemployment report was released and it came in as expected, 4.1% which previous was 4.1% actually for the past 2 to 3 months it's been unchanged. The big surprise was on non-farm payrolls. The expectation was to add 55,000 jobs. The previous report came in at 21K. What we actually came in at was 162K. Okay. Well, we added more jobs which is better than expected. Why did the the sell off, right? This is a question that makes complete sense on why you are asking this if you view it as just the report. It's not because the report was bad that market sold off. It's because of the position it puts the Federal Reserve to be able to do and what they're likely to do. Remember the big concern as of the beginning of this week, there was a high probability that the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates. At one point, it was nearly 70% probability according to the FedWatch monitor tool, right? We talked about that. And then based off of the most recent update, before I updated this, because the labor market was so weak, it didn't support a rate hike. Cuz again, when you hike up interest rates, you make it more expensive to borrow money. You make it harder for businesses to grow. You contract, right? It's it's more bearish for the economy, less bullish. But because the labor market was so weak, it supported the case that, "Hey, the market the labor market is too weak. We can't raise interest rates." And that is why we initially saw as of, you know, yesterday, the probability for a rate pause to be higher. But after today and after this report, you can see that now the probability for a rate hike, which is bearish, right? Raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people like you and I and businesses to borrow money, is now 58%. It's the more likely outcome, and that is why markets are selling off. Not because the market the stock market doesn't want the economy to thrive, but because of the position that it puts the Federal Reserve in, which again, in this case is with a hawkish tone coming into September, 1 week, 5 days. Now it looks like there is a higher probability of a rate hike, no longer a rate pause. But as you can see, one moment there's a high probability, another moment it flips. This is most likely going to continue to happen, especially as Trump continues to signal that he might end the Iran war. Some people are speculating that this is just because of midterms. I'm not here to speculate or share my opinion on that. I'm just here to keep you up-to-date on what can influence the market and why the market is moving in the way that it is. So yes, the report that came out today was good, but unfortunately it puts the Federal Reserve in a position where they can begin to raise interest rates, and that is why the market sold off. And a a big surprise, look at that, MSTR down 5.5%. But that's because it had such an amazing gap up yesterday, 17%. This is a huge overbought reversal, and I know a handful of our LPP traders are watching closely. Some already have an active short. But please be careful. Remember, markets are rational. They're always looking for a reason to recover. And when in doubt, never be afraid to cash out. I'll do my part in keeping you guys up-to-date. All we ask you to do is to follow for updates. If you have any questions whatsoever, feel free to comment down below. I hope that earned you a thumbs up. Please consider subscribing, and don't forget if you ever want to join us for those daily live sessions, it's the second link in the description down below. Take care, team.