Stock Investors, Get Ready For A Short & WILD Week

All right, what's up everybody, and welcome back to another Sunday here in the stock market. Well, we are in for a short but volatile week ahead as we have CPI data coming in when it matters the most. We have AI earnings on Thursday and price structures forming on the stock charts right now, especially for the spy, all of which I believe will have a pretty big impact on the market and our portfolios moving forward. And so, because this is going to be a pretty important week, in today's video guys, we are going through everything. I'm going to walk you through the CPI data, what you want to pay attention to, what sort of impact it'll have on the market this week and for weeks to come. Then we're going to jump into some earnings as we have some AI names reporting earnings on Thursday. We're going to finish up by looking at the charts, talking about what's happening on the spy and why this is a very important to watch right now. And at the very end, we'll jump into my own portfolio and I'll walk you through some of the ideas that I have for my portfolio this week. So, we have a good bit to get into today, but before we do, I do want to remind you all that there are some things down in the description that I want you to check out after this video, First, there are only two days left in the Labor Day sale for TH Capital and the toolkit. As you can see, at the time of recording this, we have two days left. You can get 20% off on the toolkit. You can also get 20% off for life on TH Capital, guys. You know I don't do discounts super often and I don't know when the next one is going to be. It could be upwards of 6 to 8 weeks. So, if you've been considering getting in, checking out some of these different products, those are available down below. And also, we have the free boot camp. That is happening in just uh how many days is that now? Six days from now. We're going to be doing the free technical analysis boot camp where I'm going to be teaching you all of the basics of technical analysis from what technical analysis is, candles, chart structures patterns indicators and much more. You get to spend 3 hours with me on Sunday completely free. So, head to the link down below, press save my seat, enter in your name, enter in your email, and you will be signed up and I will send you information to the email that you put down below, okay? So, don't forget to check out those two things because they are closing soon, okay? But with that in mind, let's go ahead and let's begin. So, first and foremost, let's talk about CPI, the good old inflation numbers that are going to be coming in later this week. >> [snorts] >> So, on Friday, as you all know, we get August CPI, and this is very important right now because this is the last major inflation read that the Fed is going to get before their decision next week. So, if we head to the CME watch tool, what you can see is that the next FOMC meeting is in 10 days. And at the time of recording, there is currently a 59% chance that the Fed hikes interest rates and takes their current target range from three or their target range from 350 to 375 up to 375 to 400, um of course being compared to a 40.6% chance that they maintain it. And so, obviously, going into this meeting in 10 days, this is going to be the last report that probably moves these odds around a little bit. For example, if we see inflation coming in real hot for August, I think the odds of a rate hike in September are going to go up to 70% plus. If we see inflation data coming in better than analysts expect, I could see inflation coming or the odds of a hike coming back down into the 40s. And so, realistically, it's all going to come down to Friday. What does the report for inflation on Friday say? Because that is going to dictate what happens with the interest rate hikes going into September, at least in my opinion, especially based on the back and forth that we've been seeing between war shin, of course, Christopher J. Waller, and all that stuff, all right? So, there's it's going to be I would say if you don't pay attention to anything this week but one thing, it's this. Pay attention to what CPI says. It's going to be important. Now, in terms of the numbers that we're going to be watching out for when it comes to CPI, right now, the expected headline CPI is supposed to be at 3.4%, which is a 0.3% month-over-month growth, of course, still greatly elevated from the 2.0% target that the Federal Reserve has. And so, naturally, what we're looking for is something lower than that, right? If you don't want the Fed to hike rates, you're looking for 3.2, you're looking for 3.3, or anything lower than that. But believe you me, if we see inflation coming at 3.4% at expectations or higher, there definitely is a very reasonable world in which the market continues to assume that some sort of interest rate hike is coming, if not gets even more confident. Like, for example, if we see 3.6 or 3.5, again, I believe the market is going to just assume that an interest rate hike is coming. And look, it doesn't mean that they are for certain going to hike interest rates, but remember, the market doesn't particularly react on data or objective facts. It reacts to the way in which everyone feels about those facts. And so, if the market just assumes that an interest rate hike is coming, it's going to price itself like an interest rate hike is coming, whether or not an actual hike is coming or not. And so, it's going to be very important that we watch these numbers specifically. Again, 3.4% for headline. We will, of course, talk about this a lot more as we get closer. I'll be doing a full video and live stream when this inflation data does release and walking you all through what you need to pay attention to, okay? But for now, keep that in mind, 3.4%. That's what we're looking for. Oh, also, one thing, sorry to just jump in here randomly. I forgot to tell you. Um, there is a link down below to TH Weekly. Guys, this is the free newsletter that I send out every Sunday. Basically, imagine this video that you're watching right now condensed down into email version and then sent to you every Sunday afternoon. That's what this is. So, if this is something that you're interested in, again, it's completely for free. Feel free to sign up for it. I will leave the link down below so that if you ever want to, you know, kind of refer to it during the week, see what numbers they need to be on the lookout for, what charts to be on the lookout for, that's always available for you in your email. So, if there are any of you newsletter folks out there, like myself, feel free to check out the week to TH or the link to TH Weekly down in the description. Now, in terms of earnings, we also get some earnings. This is going to be on Thursday. We have some pretty big earnings when it comes to the world of AI. As many of you know, on Thursday we have Oracle coming in. They're going to be releasing their earnings. That is currently a $443 billion company. We have Adobe coming in with their earnings at a $113.5 billion dollars of market cap. And these are both going to happen after the market closes on on Thursday. So right leading into that CPI reading on Friday. Right now for Oracle, um consensus EPS forecast is a dollar and 40 cents. And for Adobe, it is $4.86. Now, both Oracle and Adobe are important for obviously the stock market, yes, but the AI market more specifically these days. And let me kind of explain why. So when it comes to Oracle, Oracle's earnings are great read into the demand side of things for companies in the AI infrastructure space like Oracle. You know, Oracle stock price has been performing horribly. I mean, maybe horrible horrible is mean, but if we go look, I mean, dude, definitely I mean, I wouldn't call this great. You know, I definitely wouldn't call this great considering the fact that since what was that? September 9th of last year to now, so basically a year, it's now 53% and it's not even been able to sustain one pump. Yeah, I mean, you could say it's performing pretty horribly, right? But although this price has been performing horribly, Oracle has started its backlog, which are basically its easiest way you can think about it is like its orders for its AI services even though it's a little bit different than that. Um its backlog has been exploding. Its RPO has been exploding. And Oracle's earnings, although maybe haven't gone great for Oracle itself because they are financing all of this build out with a lot of debt and crushing their cash flow, um their free cash flow especially, um it's a good read for the whole market, right? Seeing what their backlog does and seeing what their RPO does is a good read for the whole market because if Oracle keeps reporting that it has its backlog is growing more and more and more, it means that there is real demand for Oracle services. And although again, that may not be particularly super beneficial to Oracle stock price because they're servicing and they're providing all of these services by using a ton of debt, taking out a ton of debt, that is a good sign for the AI market as a whole because it goes to show that AI is still in demand in general. And Oracle is a great read on that. Now, when it comes to Adobe, Adobe is the more software side of things, but not in the traditional sense. So, the reason why Adobe, at least to me, is important to the AI trade is because at the end of the day Adobe is a more legacy company, right? They're more of a legacy creative company. Sure, they leverage AI, but the reason as to why Adobe stock price, for example, has simply just not done very good. I mean, we can go look at this, right? Let's go um out here. The reason why their stock prices looked like this for so long is because a company like this is a prime candidate to be replaced by AI, right? They're a prime candidate for their services to not particularly be needed anymore because AI is just it's a I don't want to say a better version of what they do, but I mean, it kind of is. It's faster and often times it's cheaper. And so, it's always, if you're an AI investor, important to see what Adobe says. Because if Adobe This is messed up, but it's like the worst that Adobe does, generally, the better sign or signal it is that the AI buildout is continuing to develop and actually take market share from everyone else. And that's again why Adobe's price has gone down. Now, that doesn't always have to be the narrative because Adobe is starting to leverage AI in their services. And there's also a narrative there that even a legacy creative company who typically would have been replaced by AI can leverage AI in order to grow their own company and grow their margins and their service base. So, that could be a future narrative, but a lot of people do look at Adobe right now as a bit of a counterweight. The worst Adobe does, it's messed up, dude, but it's like the better. And if you look at the timing of everything, you can see it. Look at when Adobe bottomed. Adobe bottomed right here in the middle of June and has been really rallying since then. Go look at something like Micron, for example. Two completely different things, but look at the timing. That's the same time frame that Micron topped because it's a bit of a counterweight. And so, what we're going to want to do is we're going to go see how Adobe comes out and what are, you know, are they starting to get a lot of their customers back? Or are they continuing to lose customers and clientele because the AI infrastructural buildout and the AI software side of things, for example, is continuing to grow. So, you got two different reads here. Definitely a little nuanced to both of them. Oracle, we're looking to see what their backlog says, even though it may not really matter particularly for Oracle's price. And Adobe, we're looking to see if AI is still pushing them out or not. That That's kind of what it really comes down to. Both of them will be important for AI, but look, I'll be honest with you, I don't think they're going to move the needle. I don't think if Oracle has a great or bad earnings or Adobe has a great or bad earnings that it is going to cause some sort of big move in the in the AI market. I'm not expecting, you know, Micron to make a crazy move or Nvidia to make a crazy move as a result of it. I don't think they're carrying weight like that. But I do think all in all, it's just kind of that extra straw, right? It's that extra straw to build the hay bale. And so, of course, we just need to pay attention to it and see how it goes. Now, from a technical perspective, you definitely are going to want to watch the charts of other AI stocks this week very closely. Don't forget, Micron right now is approaching back towards the bottom side of that golden zone. I made a video for you all a few days ago, so I'm not going to go back into it now, but this is going to be a very important moment for Micron as it pushes back up towards the bottom side of this golden zone. This is going to be a very important moment for SanDisk as it tries to approach the bottom side of this golden zone. So, all of you memory players out there, make sure you watch that closely. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, go watch my last video on Micron and SanDisk. In terms of Nvidia, Nvidia is going to be making a It's going to make an attempt at its all-time high this week. It'll be very important to see if or very exciting to see if it's capable of pushing back up towards this all-time high or not, around 236 bucks. So, that'll be very interesting as well. So, from an AI perspective, there definitely is a lot going on in the charts and in the news in terms of earnings. So, we'll definitely have a good bit of stuff to talk about this week. But in terms of news and headlines, they're looking at Oracle and Adobe earnings. In terms of the charts, we're really focused in this week on how Micron interacts with the golden zone, SanDisk interacts with the golden zone, and how Nvidia interacts when it pushes up towards and tries to get towards this all-time high up here. So, a lot to talk about there as well. Now, outside of the AI side of things, we are also starting to see some very important structure building on the charts with the spy, okay? So, if we look at the spy, what you can see is that the spy has now officially confirmed after yesterday or Friday's pullback that it is now in a descending structure. You guys know me, I absolutely love these. These are my favorite structures in all of stocks and all of crypto as well. When I see these, I get excited because they're very easy to understand and they're very predictable, okay? These sorts of structures like this are very easy to move on. What I like to do in these structures is sometimes I'll swing trade them. So, I very well might swing trade this one and all I'm doing is essentially buying or longing in the green zone, selling or shorting in the red zone and just playing the game until it eventually does break in one direction or another out of this. The beautiful part about it is that this is a bullish corrective structure, which means that even though the price definitely could continue a little bit lower and possibly even fall out of this structure at some point, it is very likely that it eventually does work itself up and above over this red zone, which obviously could potentially entail that some sort of gains could be on the way, just depending on how this goes. And I do think this week coming up, we are going to see a lot of interactions with possibly both sides of this structure. You might get some sort of move of capacity on both sides. So, definitely going to be worth watching. I will update you guys whenever I do go in and maybe make some swing trades. What I'm going to do is give it Tuesday. I'm going to see how it interacts on Tuesday, right? Do we push back up to the top side? Do we potentially start falling towards the bottom side? And I'll go from there. But in terms of the actual price charts, this is the structure we're going to want to watch very closely cuz this is going to be kind of the narrative for the entire week. How does it interact with the reds and the greens and all that sort of stuff? And that'll obviously dictate the buys that I'm doing and all those sorts of things. But as I mentioned before, one way or another, I am very excited and bullish to see this sort of price structure, especially at an all-time high, you know? Being able to have all of this liquidity right here, break up towards your all-time high, come back down and back test all of that liquidity by creating a bullish continuation structure is a great sign and usually you can get some sort of extension to the top side off of this bad boy eventually. So, feels really good. We'll update you there. So, as you can see, as I mentioned before, we do have some very important stuff going on this week. All in all, just to kind of recap, we have CPI coming up on Friday, A AI earnings on Thursday. We have some important interactions happening on the AI charts, Nvidia, Micron, SanDisk. We also have some important interactions on the spy charts right now as well, as it's entering into this red green descending channel, okay? So, we have a good bit to talk about today um or this week. In terms of my actual portfolio and what I'm doing in my own bag, it is very, very simple, okay? You guys know me, I don't like to go in and guess. I'd like to put a game plan together. game plan is this, okay? Right now, when it comes to the S&P 500, I am actually going to be doing a little bit of movement in my long-term portfolio as a result of this structure. If we see spy, the S&P 500, roll back into this green zone, I am going to be going into my portfolio into my VOO position, which is not exactly the same um fund as the spy, but it's the same thing, right? Uh I am going to be going in and adding a little bit more to my S&P 500 position. I still have $4,260 left to deploy from August. I never really got a great chance to deploy it. Uh I just have been sitting on that cash a little bit. So, I will go in and deploy that 4,200 bucks or some of it potentially this week if I do get the opportunity to buy spy anywhere in this bottom green zone, or if there actually is a world in which we see the spy roll to the roll through the bottom of this green zone. You guys know from that video that I made, it's titled um "September is the worst month for stocks, here's my plan." In that video, I broke down where my bottom side buy zones are. I will start deploying the rest of that cash if we see spy rolling over. So, I am actually planning on doing some purchases this week if I get the opportunity, starting at the bottom side of this descending structure and some of those buy zones from that previous video down there for you. So, make sure to go check that out if you want to see what those um buy zones were. Um, but that's kind of my game plan. I don't have any intentions of selling anything this week. The only position you guys know I've been considering selling recently is MasterCard, just because I'm happy with my MasterCard position. I'm happy with what it's done. I opened this thing up about 4 months ago or so, it's up about 15%, a $487 gain. I really do want more SoFi. It's just been hard for me because it's not in my buy zone, but I would actually like to have like a 20 to 25,000 dollar position in Sofi because as the months are going by, I'm seeing the use case or the bull case clearer and clearer. And I do like even especially after what we saw with Robinhood, and I just think that that could be a good rotation. Isolate the portfolio down a little bit, add it into Sofi, but I'm not there yet with Mastercard. I may end up selling it at some point. I'm obviously not selling anything in my hyper scalar portfolio either. Um I did a little bit of purchasing in my Google position the other day, but outside of that really nothing going on there. The portfolio is still holding up pretty well, up 11.8% on the year, $676 gain. I started it on July 24th, so hanging up well. So, all in all not doing anything super crazy in the portfolio right now. Total portfolio value is roughly, let's call it 465,000 bucks. Total portfolio balance is now up about $100,000. So, not too dang on shabby. We'll definitely go ahead and take that. So, all in all that's what I got for you today. Again, it is going to be a short week, but it is going to be a volatile week especially as we get prepared for CPI. So, make sure that you just have your head on a swivel and you are ready and don't forget guys there are those things down below before you head out, go check them out. We have um the 20% off Labor Day sale on the toolkit and LT Capital both of both available now, and we have the boot camp which is completely free to sign up for. That's going to be on Saturday. So, check out both those things in the description down below. Of course, I hope you guys do always enjoy these get ready for the week videos that we do here on the channel. If you did, don't forget to like this bad boy so more people see it, and I can't wait to see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.