Has Bitcoin Bottomed? The Cycle Data Says Maybe (Plus ETH, HYPE, ZEC)

Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now, in today's video, we're diving into crypto. Has Bitcoin bottomed? Is this the beginning of the new bull market? Are we about to have a massive surge through the recent highs? I'm going to take a look at the chart. We're going to go back in history to take a look at past cycles and how they bottomed and see if it gives us any insights into the action. In in addition, I want to go over other altcoins including Ethereum, Hyperliquid, and even Zcash is going nuts right now. How much higher can these altcoins go before they run into significant resistance? Before we get started, guys, just a reminder, you can join Gareth's top squad right here on my YouTube. Today I'll be doing a live Q&A later. And in addition, every week you get exclusive videos. Every week you'll get epic discounts. In fact, I'll be revealing one in the live Q&A today. And you get swing trade chart alerts as posts on YouTube when I see a great setup occurring. All right, so let's get back into the action here on the charts and dive right in. So, first and foremost, this is Bitcoin, right? Classic. We talked about this over the last couple months, this descending trend line. We finally got our breakout. Then it kind of petered out. A lot of people thought, "Oh, it's nothing serious." I was saying that ultimately it was a charging battery ready to fully charge and have a rip higher. And that's exactly what we got. Massive move up. The first thing to note, and this is very important, is that if you're looking at whether or not we have a confirmed potential new bull market as of now, the answer is no. Why? Well, because we haven't taken out the previous high pivot. So, all along here, and again, we're getting close, very close, right? If you look at this high right here, we got as high as 82,000, basically 300. If you go back to this high pivot, we got as high as around 82,865. So, we need to just push through that. And while that by itself would not tell me that we're in a 100% bull market, right? Nothing's 100% in this game, but at least we would have a higher high because up until this point and through this point, we still have lower lows and lower highs which denote a downtrend. So, we're still in a downtrend. Couple other things of interest here. So, number one, why are we stalling out here? Why haven't we ripped higher? You guys know if you've been following along, I have my trend lines. You take this here and you just extend it right through these pivot lows and lo and behold, we get this area. So, this bare flag here before this breakdown literally extend that bare flag line out and it gave us our top in the near term. In addition, if we flip over here and we go back to this low pivot of the last bare flag, and I think this is so fascinating, right? You know, stuff makes me giddy when I see it because it is just so cool. But if we look at the low of the last bare flag right here and we bring it right through, look at that. It literally So, so I mean, think about this. The last two pivot lows on Bitcoin prior to this move up, the bare flags all have relation and converge in different ways to put a cap on the recent rally. And just to show this again, folks, here was your initial move off your all-time highs. Here's your low. Here's your bare flag. Then you broke down. Then you kind of chopped up in another bare flag formation. You use that ascending trend line. Both of them merge. And that again is exactly why we have essentially capped the rally. Now, it doesn't mean we can't break out. And I'll be the first one to say that the the action recently off of this move up has been very good. Very, very good. So, there's a chance here. In fact, the chart formation is giving us bullish vibes. And what I mean by vibes is that probability wise, it's starting to shade towards a potential move up. I would say we're going to find out this coming week. This coming week, we're either going to take out those highs. And by the way, if we take out those highs, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to just rip back to all-time highs. We could still have a pullback to 68,000, but at least you have a higher high and you start looking for higher lows. Meaning, you get pullbacks, but they slowly become higher lows. In other words, if I was just drawing this on a chart, right? So, here we're this is Bitcoin right now, right? So, high lower highs and lower lows. And now we're coming up here and we're almost breaking this pivot high. If we can break it, now we have a higher high. And we now look, yes, we're still going to get pullbacks, but we look for higher lows. Low, higher low. You see what I'm saying? And the reason that's important is it causes us to understand that there's a potential change in direction. the downtrend may have become now an uptrend which ultimately means the bare market is potentially over. Now there are some issues out there that still need to be resolved and those issues basically rely on past cycle. So I was really doing a lot of crunching here of different cycle activity. So if we go back, let's even go back to the 2017 high pivot cycle. And if we go right here, and we look at how long it took for us to bottom, all right, it was about 360 bars, about a year, right? And then we go to our 2021 high, and we take this high pivot here and to where we bottomed, it was about about the same amount, right? And it's hard to see there, though. Two, three. I mean, like almost identical from peak to trough was almost identical to what we saw back here. In fact, the way I've drawn it, it's exactly to the day, but it's actually, you know, within a day or two, let's be fair. And now, if we go to the current cycle and we say, okay, well, how long has this cycle lasted? We have here to the recent low only 266 bars. So, it's actually 100 days short if you do it matching the other cycles. Now, for those of you out there that are saying, "Well, then it can't be the top," I would just push back on you a little bit or I or I should say if you're saying it can't be the bottom. Um, listen, I I present information, right? We all get to make our own decisions, including myself on my own investments. I tend to follow the probabilities. So, there are multiple crossurrens here that a good strategist, a good investor is going to look at. You know, there are people that are always going to look at the bullish case because they're long Bitcoin. So, they're they're basically putting themselves to be positive because their own book, their own investments are they want it to go up. And there are other people that hate Bitcoin. I don't understand it. But there are other people that hate it and say, "Nope, it's going to zero." I'm neither. I'm a chartist. And a chartist has to look at the data points. Now, what I mean by that is that you have to take into account the fact that this cycle is shorter and that even though the cycle is shorter, okay, that would lead us to think that maybe we still have downside to go. But then on the other side, you have to say, well, this vertical surge was a with a bull flag and we're very near taking out the previous pivot. That is different than past cycles. And I'll show you that in a second. The reason why I could make a case for shorter cycles in Bitcoin is the same reason you have shorter cycles in gold. So if you look at the distance in gold between 1980 and 2011, the two bull market peaks, that's a massive move, right? That's 31 years. 31 years of a cycle. Then from 2011 to 2026, 15 years. The cycles are getting shorter. Why? Because M2 money supply is going up. And also US debt is going up. The dollar is slowly losing. In fact, gold has just replaced the dollar as being the biggest reserve holding of central banks and and governments around the world. And so you have these factors. If you're a believer, and this is key, if you're a believer that Bitcoin is a digital gold asset, then you should understand that cycles should be at shorter and shorter. That the four-year cycle, maybe it worked from 2017 and 2021, but then in theory, it should get a little shorter every every cycle out because of the increasing debt load that we're taking on, the ddollarization, and all those other factors. I mean, so this is very very fascinating. But what I like to do here is and and this is a good what a good technician does is you say, "Okay, well, let's go back here and look at past cycles. Do we have the same sort of structure? Do we have a descending trend line here?" Now, we do have a descending trend line off of our 2021 peak and we did break out here and then we did make a new low. So, that would go in the face of saying, well, you know, maybe we we haven't bottomed out yet for this cycle, right? Cuz here you could see you had a breakout from the descending trend line. This is very similar right here to here to here and then we broke out right very similar to what we have over here where we had high pivot high pivot high pivot we broke out. Now the difference is this is much more of a vertical move to the upside. If we go back to 2021 into 2022 we can see it was much more muted. It didn't have the buyers behind it. It had an uptick of let's see how much percentage wise and this could be actually the telling signal. So let's go here. So we take our lowest point and oop I got to get my my price range model here and we go to the high and that was a 21% move. Now if we go to this move on Bitcoin from the low, how much of a move was it? All right. Well, this one's 40 from peak from low to high. This one's 42%. So it's a it's way bigger. It's actually almost double. And that's kind of what I was talking about is this was more of meandering. This is more staying within the bare flag. But this here did occur. Now notice how you have high lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high. And then right here, this was your turning point. You had a higher high. This is what we're watching for in the current cycle on Bitcoin. All right. If if we get that higher high, I think this more see this vertical move right here. And this is m maybe what we measure, right? If we take this low to this high, look at that. That's more in the line. So, we're up right now 40 some odd percent. But we haven't made the new high yet. Right now, if we bring it down here, this is more in line of what where we are. But we need to see this move here taking out the previous highs to make a higher high. And then look, you got a low higher low. And this was the beginning of the next bull market. So again, you know, just looking back here, we can go back. I don't want to take too much time because I I respect your time immensely if you're still watching this video and I do still want to get to Zcash and ETH and so on. But nonetheless, this vertical move has the makings of a bottom in Bitcoin. We just need to take this out. And I would argue that there is a chance that the bottom is in. Even though the cycle is shorter by 100 days, look at the gold cycles and again look at the factors. M2 money supply increasing 7% every year and starting to increase more percentage- wise. US debt going up a trillion dollars every three to six month. I mean, it's just incredible all of these factors. If gold, if Bitcoin is truly a digital gold, it makes sense why the cycle could be shorter. All right. Um, let's get into this. Before we do this, guys, I just want to remind you here, and we're going to get into these other ones, but don't forget, guys, Rumble Wallet is where I do my swing trading here on Bitcoin and the altcoins. Again, download the Rumble Wallet QR code. They are awesome. It's a $4 billion publicly traded company. So, you know, they have their ducks in a row. It's not shady because again, they're a big company that has the SEC up there. You know what, all of those factors. Um, in addition, you can play gold on here via Tether, which buys it physically. The Tether buys the gold physically. So, I love that aspect of it. And really, the honest answer is just, you know, we all, at least if you're like me, you got to hold a little bit of Bitcoin. Um, and this is an easy place to do it. Use the code verified5 with the number five and you get $5 in stable coins put right into your account when you download it. Check it out, guys. Uh the link is in the description, but also Rumble wallet QR code. You can use it right here on the screen. All right, let's get into the charts on ETH. Let's go to ETH and see what ETH has for us. ETH, look at this guys. Former pivot low of the last bare flag and look at where it is right now. It's hammering on that. Now the positive for ETH arguably is we did make a higher high here and we're consolidating. Look at the consolidation here. How you take this here and that now becomes support. So as long as and by the way this is a great bull flag. Great bull flag. So we had the bottom here which I gave you guys an alert when this was forming. I said guys great inverse head and shoulders. It broke out bull flagged and moved up. So low arguably maybe a lower a higher low etc. We got our higher highs. This chart continues to look really, really good on Ethereum. I continue to like this. Let's look at Hyperlid. HYPUSD here. Hyperlid is getting up there. Incredible move from $50 now north of $90 or at least kissing $90 here. I actually am looking to short Hyperlid. I'm going to show you why. So if you take a trend line here, right, and we extend this out and we drag this up here to our high, look, support support support resistance you could argue, kissed here. If we get up to about 91ish, give or take, I'm going to start nibbling on a short on Hyperlquid with members of Smart Money Crypto. That one I do like Zcash. Zcash, what a move here, guys. Incredible. I did start nibbling on a short on this and I've accumulated a little bit here. Um, again, the basics of this is what are we looking at here? You do have an ascending uh parallel here as well. Um, and I think I think you actually got to do the parallel for it to here from this point here right there. And you can see as we're now coming into very close here, let me bring this up. We're getting very close into major resistance. We bring this back here and we can see that again it's extreme extended. So going just to a little while this was under 500. It's now up near 12. It pierce 1,200. So it's 100% move just off this low in August nearing massive parallel resistance on the chart. Extreme extension RSI if we throw the RSI relative strength. I mean look at this guys. You actually are getting a negative divergence. Negative divergence on this. So you look at the descending here, but price ascending. That's a great little signal that that institutional money starting to unload into this move. Keep an eye on this one, guys. Again, I think it could go as high as maybe 1250 to,300. I do think you will see a pullback all the way back down to about 900 right here. Maybe even retrace into this high here at 700. But I would be looking for that 900ish level here, the previous pivot top. Those are the key ones on the chart. So, listen, this is amazing stuff on Bitcoin. Um, Bitcoin I'm fascinated by. I hope you were as much as I was because looking at these variables from the last cycle to this cycle, the vertical move we've seen here much more similar to actually a bottom being put in the cycle short. I mean, all of these factors make up some extremely intriguing things. Either way, folks, you know, I'm here for you. I'm giving you as much information as I know. Screw the institutions. I will give it out to you guys right here on these videos. You guys support me more than the institutions. The institutions are always out for themselves. We know that. I will do my best to keep bringing my agame right for you if you spend your time right here with me. Make sure to follow, like, and share with friends and family. Subscribe. I thank you so much. Have a good one. Take