It's Happening Again !! (Asset Cycles Aligning)

Now, let's also note this is around the 21st, isn't it? 21st of September, within a couple of days of the stocks being expected to bottom there, too. It's also true that Bitcoin would be dangerously close to its window in there, wouldn't it? And all of this at a time when the 10-year yield is about to top for its weekly cycle and for its major yearly cycle. And of course you can see the inverse of this on the TLT setup which is dangerously close here to confirming a new 7 and a half year cycle. This is the monthly time frame and we got divergence bullish divergence right lower lows in price higher lows on the oscillator so far and the weekly cycle again zooming in just a couple of weeks away now from this turn. So in a couple of weeks we are going to be in that 21st of September time frame. And not only have we got the yields ready to top, we've got the bond market therefore ready to turn up. We have got the metals ready to enjoy no more rate hikes. What I'm trying to say is all the cycles are pointing at the rate hike fears disappearing. The cycles are suggesting that we're going to get to around the 16th, have this gnarly shake out to force those cycle lows, and then leave those lows behind and not look back. Morning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and welcome to the week. Welcome to Monday. Bitcoin is still contained below the most important level in finance at around 83K denoted by this red horizontal line here. zooming in to take a closer look. You can see it's nudging higher. But until such time as we break through this level, we have to admit, we have to accept that the current yellow squiggle that you are looking at right now is still very much on the table. It doesn't matter how bullish it might feel or how bullish the timeline is or any of that stuff, okay? The technicals do not lie and unless we get a higher high, then this still remains one of the possible outcomes. And the same is true of Ethereum. This is the original post back in August 10th and I said we would likely set some structure. We would use that yellow squiggles structure to set a trend line. Soon thereafter, we moved into resistance admittedly up instead of sideways, but then set a new piece of structure to connect our trend line to. So far, a pretty lackluster breakout attempt. Okay. Now, it would only take one daily candle that's big and green, something like this, and suddenly I think everyone would change their tune, including me, anyone that's bearish, that is, and we'd be looking at this saying, "Here we go. That is a real consolidation beneath resistance." Okay, it's just set a new area that the market is respecting as resistance right here. Plenty of touch points. And now it's tried to break out. You could even get a nice tight piece of risk management in here with a stop below the lows and target at least back to the prior highs, if not beyond. Okay, so a nice tradable setup there if you are so inclined. But at the moment, if you're a breakout trader, I don't think this would fill you with confidence. It certainly wouldn't fill me with confidence yet. And remember, it can only really go up or down, right? And if it goes up, fine. Like I said, we've got the trade set up. And if it goes down, well, once again, cycles doing cycle things. So, I know it's extremely boring out there at the moment. I know people are losing their patience, and that's kind of why they've resorted to fighting on the internet. But the reality is, it's very, very simple. We just have to sit here, be patient, wait for these levels to break. And if they break to the upside, we become extremely bullish, extremely fast. If, however, we see the rejection at resistance, we see the Bart Simpson pattern continue is good news, bad news, right? The bad news is there's going to be probably a lot of pain and suffering for a lot of people out there shortterm. But the good news is we'll have a very easy to identify tradable swing coming up inside the expected window for the cycle system. So, day by day, we're getting there. Okay? And if you're wondering how long can this go on for? I suppose in theory forever perpetually. But the daily cycle count tells us as of right now we are past the halfway point of the cycle. We're somewhere around Did I count that correctly? I think we're further along than I thought we were. Yeah, today is day 37. Now, typically Bitcoin will top for its daily cycle somewhere around 40 to 50 and then that remember leaves approximately 10 days to decline into the upcoming daily cycle low window. So I would think if we're not going to break out here and heavily right translate this cycle, if we're not going to invalidate the bearish count and new lows, if we are going to force an early low here and move straight into a new bull market and be popping champagne and dancing up and down and buying higher beaters, then we should be able to say with a high degree of confidence by about the 20th of September, you'd expect based on the daily cycle count, Bitcoin to have already started declining or be declining for the last 10 days of the cycle. So it could happen any day now in either direction. And it's not really our job to concern ourselves with that. Our job is simply to either wait for the bull market confirmation to occur or understand that by the time we use up 50 days of this 60-day cycle, which is by the way about the 20th of September, then we can say with a very high degree of confidence, we will get one of these spills down here. I know markets have short memories, right? Camels do not. If you cast your minds back here when we were talking about getting this decline into around the 28th at around 60k, one of the biggest criticisms of this is people were saying things like, "Oh, sure. It's going to decline 20 odd K in a matter of days, is it? What sort of black swan event are you calling for?" But notice how nothing actually happened here apart from the cycle just reset itself into the expected window. And right now, I see the sentiment extremely similar, okay, to back here. Right now it seems like I can't believe you're calling for a 20k decline in a few weeks time. I can't believe this guy assumes a black swan event is going to crash and tank the market. But realistically, the cycles drive price and the market will just fit a narrative after the fact. And we really only have to look back to early May to see exactly what we could be facing here. So I still think people should be proceeding with caution here. Again, it's very, very simple. So long as you don't overthink it. Break above and we confirm this is the low. It's in early and it's time to get super bullish cuz we're about to cover a lot of ground very quickly. Of course, nothing moves in straight lines. There'll be pullbacks along the way, but I will become extremely bullish if we're going to exhaust sellers here and then start to mark up aggressively. But at the moment, the reality is, okay, this is still in play. And again, by the time we get to the 20th, if we're still in this range, then we can say with a lot of confidence, okay, the path of least resistance is lower, just like we said back here. And again, notice how the sentiment back here was incredibly similar to what we have today. If it was going to happen, it would probably look something like this. I would argue this final low, either late 26 or early 27 would be a significant lower low below these, okay? Because of that Elliot wave count I was showing on Saturday's video where this would be 1, two, three has to be the longest and then you get four in a sideways and five to capitulate. But I don't think we'll see that marginal lower low like this if we're going to get this count. this count is actually if it's right where this is one, two, three, four, and five come next into that kind of Q1 of next year count. If that's what's in play here, then this is not only a huge bull trap with lots of balls caught offside and extreme bullish sentiment because they're dunking on, you know, the big accounts and calling people sidelined or whatever else, but this count has the most potential to go the lowest. Okay? And right now, unless we can invalidate it with that higher high, then it's in. So, we've got the sentiment and the cycles and the Elliot wave structure all pointing to significant lower lows. And if the sentiment got as bullish as it did into here, then, you know, you can shudder to think how difficult this is going to be for a lot of those people that just FOMOed in here to deal with down here. So, let's hope we haven't got a deal with that, right? Let's just hope we get the breakout and we can carry on bullposting and dunking on people. But in the meantime, we've got some more serious stuff to do because we are now only about 10 days away from the 16th. And I'm still making the case that the people calling for rate hikes are going to be wrong again and that this thing will repric in this direction. I've got plenty of reason that I think this is likely. Okay, first of all, the jobs data again, you know, they can't help themselves. They just keep revising the jobs data lower. The inflation wobble for oil is most likely over here, printing yet another lower macro high and this time below 2 and a half% should probably be heading down below this low in no time. And lots of people are like, "Yeah, right. There's no inflation." But check this out. Okay, this is the institutional USD inflation swaps one year here in dark blue made it as low as 1.8%. Now, yes, there's going to be a snap back to 2 and a half, but then it's likely going to resume this way again. The institutions know, right? They have this sust inflation. Okay, they've walked this thing down. We're correcting back and they're going to walk it down again. This is the average expectation of inflation. And look, even two, five, and 10 and 30 are all clustered sub 2 1/2% here. Okay, there is no inflation. And it's the average retail investor that just hasn't figured this out yet. Whilst we're here, as well, my Elliot wave video that I did on Saturday was quite wellreceived. And this just caught my eye. Right, look at this. 1 2 1 2 and then we go 3 4 3 4 and 5. That's super clean. And what this is and the reason I just wanted to point this out is cuz do you remember we talking about vertical accumulation for Bitcoin? So Bitcoin does something like this and then it busts out and then it does this and people draw rising wedges in here and they say, "Oh, it's a bearish rising wedge. I know what comes next, the breakdown." But then in the case of vertical accumulation, and I showed examples of this before with gold, I showed examples with Bitcoin, we get this structure that looks like a rising wedge, which is bearish more often than not. And the thing busts out to the top again. And the reason it does this is because it's not actually a rising wedge. It's not actually a bearish pattern. It is these overlapping threes and fours that have been misidentified just to the upside. Right? So we go 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 and then five and bust out the top. So, lots of people are asking me about that and how to know the difference. That's what it is. So, the vertical accumulation is not a rising wedge because it's overlapping threes and fours just like we get here, right? 1 2 1 2 1 2 and then we go 3 4 3 4 5. So, we didn't cover any of the TA and the live positions in Saturday's video cuz I just contained it to Bitcoin. But so far, as long as this daily cycle low holds and so long as we can keep pushing, then I still think this market is a lot more bullish than most people are giving it credit for. Yes, there could be a pullback into that kind of mid to late September time for the S&P 500, but so long as it doesn't fail this daily cycle, okay, I think we're good. If I pull up that crazy US 500 fractal and instead of align these peaks here, I just kind of shove it back a bit. It does look a lot like this is what's going to happen here into that look where my cursor is 21st, 23rd, and then off we go. And again, this is all looking pretty lined up from where I'm sitting because we do this, we get this big blowoff top into the end of the year, then we're gonna have to come down hard and fast black swan style to reset the 4-year low. That takes us into that neighborhood where you'd expect to see Bitcoin print this according to the profile of the daily and the weekly cycles. I don't know, man. It's crazy, but it's an idea and ideas are bulletproof. The level three members and I are positioned via the US 100, which seems to be holding up. We've also got that Dow Jones trade open right about here. So, we'll see what happens there. And the Russell 2K seems to be nudging higher. I've still got a position there sat around break even. So, that's cool. Gold appears to be doing the ABC or that two drives pattern into the cycle low window. Okay, so let's see if we can do it. Let's see if we can actually get a couple of gnarly candles to the downside, right? One drive, counter trend rally, two drive, cycle low. Off we go. Catch the yellow squiggle back up. And then all we'll have to do is not believe the sentiment. looking for trading a system, trading the edge, okay? And putting the faith and trust in the process and the cycles. Now, let's also note this is around the 21st, isn't it? 21st of September, within a couple of days of the stocks being expected to bottom there, too. It's also true that Bitcoin would be dangerously close to its window in there, wouldn't it? And all of this at a time when the 10-year yield is about to top for its weekly cycle and for its major yearly cycle. And of course you can see the inverse of this on the TLT setup which is dangerously close here to confirming a new 7 and a half year cycle. This is the monthly time frame and we got divergence bullish divergence right lower lows in price higher lows on the oscillator so far and the weekly cycle again zooming in just a couple of weeks away now from this turn. So in a couple of weeks we are going to be in that 21st of September time frame. And not only have we got the yields ready to top, we've got the bond market, therefore ready to turn up, we have got the metals ready to enjoy no more rate hikes. What I'm trying to say is all the cycles are pointing at the rate hike fears disappearing. The cycles are suggesting that we're going to get to around the 16th, have this gnarly shakeout to force those cycle lows, and then leave those lows behind and not look back. So, I'm expecting some sort of weird simulation, narrative, whatever you want to call it, to show up right into the 21st of September. And whatever that is, maybe it shows up before to drive the prices lower into those cycle lows, but then something should happen around that kind of 23rd neighborhood where we get the stocks fulfill the rest of this. This is what it's looking like to me. And at the same time, we've got gold looking to catch this yellow squiggle back up. We've got silver at the same time looking to catch this yellow squiggle back up or something approximating this. We've got Bitcoin, weirdly enough ready to head lower. Now again, that goes away. Those concerns, if you're a bull here, disappear as soon as we break above this level. But as of right now, all the stars are aligned for once again, Trady to leave crypto in the dust whilst crypto keeps doing its fouryear cycle. Right? We've seen this and I keep getting the same comments from people. How can you be calling for a blowoff top in stocks while saying Bitcoin's going to go lower? The stocks have done nothing but go up in a straight line since back here. And Bitcoin has done nothing but go down in a straight line. Okay, look. This is October. Down. Lower lows, lower highs. Stock market. This is October up up quick pullback up up sideways up. Okay, probably going to continue to go higher. So all of this has happened in the face of Bitcoin going down only. So to say camel, if you're calling for a blowoff top in stocks, then you know, Bitcoin has to move higher. I don't think that makes any sense personally, but you do you as always. It's all in alignment, isn't it? Right. Bitcoin going to continue to move down. Gold stocks going to find their cycle lows with silver. The yields are topping for their weekly cycles and multi-year cycles. So by nature, therefore, the long end and the bond market is bottoming for its major yearly cycles and weekly cycles, ready to turn up. Now, of course, all of this could be true, and I could be wrong on Bitcoin. Maybe Bitcoin's bottom really is in. We're going to move into this low interest rate or rate cutting environment and this is going to participate and you know we're going to Valhalla here. So maybe this this is the one that I've got wrong and the rest are you know more or less doing what the cycles expect them to do. That is entirely possible and I'm open to that. And again this big red line you know we call it the most important level in finance for a reason. But looking around here I mean things are looking good right semi starting to push again. Couple of members trades doing okay. I mean, I think everything is under control here. And I do think we're in for a pretty hot September by the time we get to the 21st, right? Hot in terms of action. I mean, so if you want to learn how to do this stuff, okay, click here in about 10 seconds. And other than that, I guess I'll see you tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. >> No fear, no shame. sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel fin.