SpaceX IPO: The Biggest Stock Opportunity of the Century | $SPCX

People are calling this the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. Not of the decade, not of our generation, of our lifetime. Bigger than Google, bigger than Amazon, bigger than anything. Now, let me start with the story because the story here is genuinely one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen in business and you'll probably ever hear about. Elon Musk started SpaceX in 2002. He had just sold PayPal for a ton of money. Now, most people in his position would have bought a yacht, would have retired somewhere nice, but instead he took the majority of his money and put it into rockets. Not because there was an obvious business case, because he genuinely believes that humans need to become a multi-planetary species. He thinks that we are one bad event, whether it's one asteroid, one pandemic, or one war away from extinction if we stay on Earth forever. And Mars is his backup plan for all of humanity. Now, I know how that sounds. It sounds like a movie, except that what he actually built works. The Falcon 9 rocket is the most flown rocket in history. Now, think about that for just one second. He started from a nothing business in 2002 and built the most used rocket in the history of the world. And the reason SpaceX can do this cheaper and faster than anyone else on the entire planet is they have cracked something that nobody thought was possible. landing rocket boosters back onto the very launch pad that they took off from so they could be used over and over again. In 2024, SpaceX launched 134 times. That's over once every 3 days. And right now, SpaceX is responsible for about 80% of all the mass lifted into orbit every single year. 80% of everything that goes into space comes from one company. And that company started 23 years ago with a guy and a dream. Now there's also Starlink. Over 6,000 satellites orbiting Earth right now, beaming high-speed internet down to homes, boats, planes, and remote areas in more than 100 countries. I personally use Starlink and a lot of the people use it because they had no other option. No cable, no fiber, nothing. And right now Starlink has over 10 million subscribers and it's growing very quickly. The revenue from Starlink alone is in the billions of dollars per year. Now, the IPO date is coming up very fast. We're talking June 12th. This is happening in a matter of weeks, which is exactly why I wanted to get this video out to you right now because the hype machine is already running at full speed, and I want you to have the real information before that day comes. Now, they also announced just recently a 5 for one stock split, which means the share price went from around 527 per share down to 105 per share of this ticker SPCX. Now, here is something that's new since the last time we talked about SpaceX on this channel. Earlier this year, SpaceX merged with XAI, which is Musk's artificial intelligence company. That merger also brought in X, which is what used to be Twitter. So, the company you'd be buying into today is not just a rocket company anymore. It's rockets, its satellite internet, its AI, and its social media all under one roof. And the vision they laid out in this filing goes even further. They're talking about putting AI data centers into orbit, powered by the sun, cooled by the vacuum of space. They're talking about a lunar economy, mining asteroids, passenger flights to Mars. They identified AI alone as a $26 trillion market opportunity. For context, the entire US economy is about $31 trillion. They think AI is going to be almost as big as the entire US economy. So, look, I get it. I really do. When you read all that, when you look at what this man has actually built with his own hands from scratch, the instinct to want a piece of it is completely natural. It's human. But then I read the filing and guys, what I found in that document might change how you see this entire thing. There are numbers in there. There are quotes in there, things that SpaceX's own lawyers wrote. It's over 270 pages long. And there are things in there that matter that I don't think anybody on YouTube is talking about right now. The thing about an S1, which is a document a company files before they go public, is that somewhere in those hundreds of pages, they have to tell you the truth. And a lot of times they're going to hope that you skim over it. They can put all the rocket photos and mission statements they want in the front, but the lawyers have to put the real information in there somewhere. Let me show you what I found. Let's start with the money. SpaceX brought in $18.7 billion in revenue last year. That's real money. But in that same year, they lost almost $5 billion. And in just the first three months of this year, the losses grew by another 4.3 billion. So, they went from 5 billion in total loss last year to $4.3 billion in the first quarter of this year alone. Now, losing money while you're growing doesn't automatically make you a company uninvestable. Companies have to sit there and invest into the future. I'm glad they're doing that. Amazon lost money, I believe, for 17 years in a row. I get the argument of losses can lead to longer gains. I do it with my real estate. But the question is always, what are you losing it on? Is it building something real? So, let's look at where the money is actually going. And here's where it gets wild. The AI division, which is the XAI business they they merged with early this year, spent 12.7 billion on hardware and infrastructure in 2025 alone. Just to just to give you a sense of what that number means, the entire rocket business, all the launches, all the Falcon 9, all of that spent a fraction of that. The AI side is burning cash at a pace that dwarfs everything else in the company. And then in just the first three months of the year, the AI division spent another $7.7 billion in one quarter. Meanwhile, that same AI business only brought in $818 million in revenue that quarter. So you're spending 7.7 billion to make 818 million in 3 months. Now, over the last four quarters combined, SpaceX has burned through approximately $30 billion in cash. 30 billion in one year. Now, here's the thing I want to give them credit for because it's actually a smart move. Anthropic, one of the biggest and most respected AI companies in the world, agreed to pay SpaceX $15 billion a year to lease space in their data centers. That deal is worth up to $45 billion through 2029. That is a massive contract and it helps offset a lot of that spending. But here's the detail that jumped out at me. Anthropic makes a product called Claude. Claude is a direct competitor to Grock, which is SpaceX's own AI chatbot. SpaceX is leasing data center space to its own competitor. And the reason that's happening is pretty simple. Grock is not winning. App downloads are falling. Enterprise customers are choosing Anthropic and Open AI. So SpaceX is taking Anthropic's money because the market isn't taking Grock. Now, the one business that's actually generally working, and I want to be clear about this because it's important, is Starlink. Starlink grew from 5 million subscribers to over 10 million in about one year. Their operating margin is about 36.5%. That is a legitimately good business profitable growing real customers, paying real money every single month. Guys, the one profitable part of this business, the part that generates billions in real cash, Musk is telling you directly that it's going to Mars, not the shareholders. Starlink Internet is what's being used to pay for humanity getting to Mars. So, I'd like to thank everyone out there who bought Starlink because you're helping secure the future of civilization and helping make life multilanetary. Now, obviously, the play is that going to Mars will then enhance the shareholder value by generating a lot of profit. I get that. The filing shows that SpaceX bought $131 million worth of Cybert trucks from Tesla last year at full retail price. Guys, it's no secret Tesla has been struggling to sell Cybert trucks. And on top of that, SpaceX spent another $700 million on Tesla battery products to power their AI data centers. I'm not saying anything illegal is happening. I'm not saying anything did anyone did anything wrong. What I'm saying when one person controls the board, when they control the voting shares, when they control the CEO position, these are the kind of decisions that get made. And as a potential investor, that's something you need to keep your eyes open about. SpaceX has two classes of stocks. Class A is what the public will buy. Class B is a super voting stock. Each class B share carries 10 votes. Musk controls 93.6% of class B shares. When you add it all up, he controls about 85% of the total shareholder vote. What does that mean for you as an investor? It means Elon Musk can only be fired by Elon Musk. That's literally how it works. The filing says he can be removed by a majority vote of class B shares. Guys, he owns 93.6% of them. So, you have to he'd have to vote for to fire himself. That's the only path. And as a class A shareholder, which is what you'd be buying, you will have virtually zero say in how this company is run. The filing even uses a specific term for this. They call SpaceX a controlled company, which means they get exceptions to governance rules that would normally give shareholders certain protections. They literally tell you this in the document. Now guys, this has happened before. I remember Mark Zuckerberg getting criticized for this when Meta first went public. And Meta has done fabulous since they went public. So that this in in of itself is not necessarily a bad thing if things go very well. And there's one more thing in the control story that I want to flag because it may be the most consequential thing I tell you today. There are serious reports from CNBC from people inside both companies that Musk has discussed merging SpaceX and Tesla. Tesla employees say it's openly talked about internally. The two companies already share board members, share engineers, and share suppliers. Tesla even owns $2 billion worth of SpaceX shares. Why does this matter? Well, think about it. Tesla is the one company where Musk still has to answer to public shareholders to some degree. He's had a fight for pay packages in court. Shareholders have pushed back. If SpaceX absorbs Tesla, that problem goes away for him permanently on the Tesla side. The one check on his on his power disappears. Now, on to his compensation. And here is where his compensation gets very interesting. The SpaceX board, which Elon Musk effectively controls, decided to give him up to 1 billion additional shares. The conditions for getting those shares, two things. SpaceX has to reach a $7.5 trillion market cap. For reference, Nvidia's are currently worth over $5 trillion. So, this have to be about 50% higher than Nvidia is currently worth based on market cap. Second condition, a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants. Look, if he pulls off a Mars colony, give the man whatever he wants. That would be the single greatest achievement in human history. But as an investor, what that tells you is where the priorities are, and they're not primarily pointed at generating shareholder returns. Now, you could argue, well, Paul, $7.5 trillion in market cap, that is validating shareholder returns, which I do get right there. But there's no metrics here about revenue, about profit, about cash flow, none of that. It's only get this market cap, which can be driven by the underlying fundamentals I talk about, and get people to Mars. Okay, now I told you there were quotes in this filing that made me stop. Here they are. SpaceX wrote this about their own plans, the orbital data centers, the lunar economy, the Mars missions, all of it. They wrote, "Many of our initiatives involve significant technical complexity, unproven technologies, or technologies that do not exist. And such initiatives may not achieve commercial viability." Now guys, for some of you out there, you might sit there and say, "Well, that's obvious." But I want you to remember technologies that do not exist. This is not something easy to just create from nowhere. This is the words from SpaceX's own lawyers put into a document they filed with the federal government because they had to. They realize they're going to create something that does not exist yet that can prove to be very costly. And then separately they wrote, "We have a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future." Now, this could just be a hedge, but guys, we look at this and in their own words in their document, if you went and looked at Google going public right now, they wouldn't have to write that. They'd be like, "Yeah, we make a lot of money." They wouldn't have to write that, sit there and say like, "Well, we don't make money. We have a history of not making money." They make money. Now, I want to be very clear and I want to say something very important. I am not saying that SpaceX is a scam. I'm not saying that the mission isn't real. The mission is absolutely real. The technology is real or they're going to attempt to make it real. What I am saying is that there's a massive gap between the vision and where the business is today. And somebody's going to have to pay for that gap. If you've ever made an investing decision based on a gut feeling and lost money, this software was made for you. Everything Money built the software that replaces gut feelings with a real process. Our stock analyzer tool helps you figure out what a company is actually worth based on the assumptions that you put in. The eight pillars check the health of the business from almost every angle. You stop guessing and you start investing with actual data and conviction. You'll finally know what you own, why you own it, and the right price to pay for it. Not because someone told you to buy it. Not because you have FOMO and you saw somebody else make money, but because you ran it through a process and the numbers made sense to you. This isn't complicated, guys. If you can make a thoughtful decision in everyday life, then you can do this. So, start the 7-day trial for just $7. Click the link in the description below and see everything this community and software has to give you today. Now, before I show you the valuation match math, which is the most important part of this whole video, because the price you pay is the most important thing, I want to spend a few minutes on something that I think is really underappreciated. The history of big exciting IPOs because in 30 years of investing, I've seen this play out so many times that the pattern is almost boring to me now. First, let me explain how an IPO actually works in plain English. Think of it like this. You and your friend build a lemonade stand. It grows into something really big. One day you say, "Hey, we want to let other people own a piece of this." So you shell your sell your shares to the public for the first time. That's the IPO. You still work there. You still own the business, but you own less of it because you've sold shares to the public. So why do companies do it? A lot of times it's for liquidity. You've built something valuable, but you can't access that value because it's all locked up in the business. The IPO lets you sell some of that value and turn into real cash. And I'll be honest, there's also a certain amount of excitement and status involved in taking a company public. A lot of people do it for that reason as well. But here's what most regular investors don't understand about what goes on behind the scenes. The banks that run these IPOs, the Goldman Sachs is leading SpaceX deal with 23 other banks in total, they're not analysts. They're not financial adviserss sitting there trying to get you a fair price. They are salespeople. They are marketing people. Their job is to go on what's actually called a road tour, stand in front of the biggest institutional investors in the world and hype the [ __ ] out of the stock as hard as they can. That is literally their job. They get paid to do that. And here's the other thing that most people don't realize. By the time you're buying shares on day one as a regular investor, the big hedge funds, the institutional players, the venture capital firms, they already got their shares at a better price before trading even opened. They're in the room on the road tour. They got the allocations. So when then you're rushing in on day one because you're excited, you're offering buying directly from the people who got it in cheaper than you. You are their exit plan. Now, let me walk you through a few examples. Facebook in 2012, biggest tech IPO in history at the time. Everyone wanted in. The stock opened around 38. People were lined up around the block, metaphorically, and then it dropped and kept dropping. investors who bought on day one had to wait over a year just to break even, over a year just to get back to zero. And they were one of the lucky ones. Now, it obviously worked out very, very well eventually, but we spent a lot of time celebrating the people who held for 10 years and not a lot of time talking about the ones who bought at 38 and sold at 20 when they panicked. Uber in 2019, everyone on the planet was using Uber. It was a no-brainer, right? Stock dropped the day it went public. If you bought on day one, you had to wait four years before you were in the green. Now, the broader data, looking at IPOs, historically, 29% traded a higher price 10 years later, only 29%. If you only look at the best category, big exciting tech IPOs over the last 20 years, the average return was about 490%. Sounds amazing, right? Well, guys, the funny part is the S&P over that same period of time returned almost 800%. So, even buying the most exciting tech IPOs you could find, you still underperformed just putting your money in an index fund and forgetting about it. Now, here's something very specific to SpaceX that I want you to understand because this is actually a real mechanic that costs real investors money. It's called the lockup expiration. When a company goes public, the insiders, who are the founders, the early employees, the venture capital firms are legally not allowed to sell their shares for a set period of time after the IPO. That is a lockup period. The standard is 180 days, so which is about 6 months. After that period ends, all those insiders who got their shares at pennies on a dollar, they can sell. And when a flood of new shares suddenly hits the market all at once, prices drop. That is the lockup expiration effect. And it happens with almost every big IPO. Here is the SpaceX specific detail. Musk himself agreed to a 366 day lockup. Good. Double the standard. That's a commitment. Now, of all the IPOs, Google is the one honest exception in my experience. 2004 already profitable, already dominant in their market. But on day one, you did very well. But in 30 years, Google is the only IPO that I've been offered that I regret not buying. the rest of them, zero fs given. Now guys, this is the part of the video I really wanted to get to because if you've watched this channel at all, you know I live by one idea above everything else. And once you understand this idea, you really understand it. You will never look at investing the same way again. Price and value are not the same thing. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. And the gap between those two numbers, that gap is everything. This is how great investors think about every single purchase they make. They don't ask, "Is this a great story?" They ask, "Is the price below the value?" And if it is below, how much below value can I buy it to give myself that cushion, that margin of safety? Because our fifth principle of principal driven investing is this. A great story becomes a bad investment if you pay the wrong price. You can buy the absolute best business in the world as from a story perspective, even from a numbers perspective, but if you overpay, you're probably going to be hurt on your investment returns. So, let's bring this back to SpaceX and let's do the actual math because this is where I want you to really pay attention. SpaceX is targeting a valuation of around $1.75 trillion at IPO. Some reports even say potentially 2 trillion, but let's just focus on 1.75. Over the last four quarters, SpaceX has brought in approximately $20 billion in revenue at $1.75 trillion in valuation. You are paying roughly 90 times sales. That means for every single dollar they bring in in revenue, not profit, guys, revenue, you're paying $91 for it. Let me put that number into perspective for you. Let's compare it to Google. Google right now is worth about $4.5 trillion. Their annual revenue is about $400 billion. So, you're paying about 11 times sales for Google versus 91 times for SpaceX. Now, you might sit there and say, "Yeah, but Paul, SpaceX can grow a ton more." Okay, that's fine. Let me get into that. If you were looking at a house today and the asking price was $400,000 and I told you 30 years from now it's going to be worth 1.5 million, would you pay $1 million for it today? No. What I find people do in investing though is they sit there and they pay for the potential before the potential hit. And if the potential does hit, a lot of times the company can still be worth just as much as if they just waited. So let's go a little bit further. SpaceX's total shareholder equity, that's what the company owns, their assets, minus what it owes, liabilities, about $35 billion. At 1.75 trillion, you're paying more than 50 times the book value of this business. And here's the one thing that really got me. They expected to raise $75 billion in the IPO at their current cash burn rate of $30 billion per year. That money is gone in about two and a half years, assuming they don't increase their spend. So, they keep their spend the same, which we've already seen them massively increase it just this year alone versus last year. They have two and a half years of runway. And then what do they need to do? They need to raise more money. And here's the math that really puts the valuation into perspective for me. Even if SpaceX 10xed their revenue from here from 20 billion to $200 billion, and the market valued them at the same multiple as Google, which is 10 times sales, you'd get a valuation of about $2 trillion, guys. That's basically what they're trying to get today. That's basically what they're trying to get to their IPO after they 10x their revenue. So they need to 10x their revenue, match Google's revenue multiple just to justify what they're doing today, all the while burning $30 billion a year in cash. Now guys, I get it. I completely get it. You've been watching this video and part of you is sitting there going, "Yeah, but Paul, it's SpaceX. It's Elon. It's rockets. It's Mars. It's Starlink. It's orbital data centers. What if this is the one? What if I just put a little bit of money into it?" I understand that feeling. It is completely human. And I'm not here to tell you that you're an idiot for feeling it. I feel it, too. We all have FOMO to some degree. Every single one of us. But I want you to be honest with yourself about what that is because there is a word for putting in money into something based on excitement rather than value. It isn't investing. It's speculation. It's a bet. It's a gamble. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with making a bet or a gamble as long as you're honest with yourself and realize this is a bet. The dangerous version of this is not the person who puts in a little and knows it's a gamble. The dangerous person is the person who puts in a lot of money they can't afford to lose because they're convinced it's going to work and it's guaranteed to work. The hype is always real this time. It's always different until it isn't. So, if you're going to bet, all I ask is one thing. Bet responsibly. Know that it's a bet. And before anything else, make sure your foundation is solid. And here's what I mean. If you have a 401k at work and that is your priority, then max it out. Put it into lowcost ETFs. If your employer matches your contributions, that's free money. An instant return before you've invested in a single thing. No IPO, no SpaceX trade, and no bet in the world beats that. Not a single one. If you have a Roth IRA, max that out, too. Make sure you are on track for your retirement before you take extra money and speculate on anything. Do those things first every year, every month, every week without fail. Put money into lowcost ETFs. Buy individual stocks that are great businesses, but most importantly at great prices that have real cash, real earnings, real value. That's the foundation. That's what builds actual wealth over a lifetime. SpaceX might be the most exciting IPO you've ever seen. The mission is real. Nobody's arguing that. But excitement doesn't fund your retirement. Discipline does. price, value, and patience. That's it. And I want to leave you with something that I think is worth far more money than any stock tip or IPO prediction you'll ever hear anywhere. These are the five tenants that I invest by. The framework that our entire community, which is thousands of people, live by. This is what separates investors who build real wealth from speculators who keep making the same expensive mistakes over and over again. Tenant number one, we are investors, not speculators. Tenant number two, every investment is the present value of all its future cash flows. Tenant three, if we don't understand it, we don't invest in it. Tenant four, in the short run, the stock market's a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine. And the fifth one, which I've said before, a great story becomes a bad investment if you pay the wrong price. These five tenants don't tell you what to buy. They keep you from doing the things that destroy most people's portfolios. Chasing hype, panic selling, overpaying for a great story. Now, I have a gift for you that covers all five of these tenants. Click the link in the description or the pinned comment at the top. Download our principal-driven PDF. It is absolutely completely free. Print it out. Put it somewhere you'll see it every day. Save it to your phone because the best investment decision you'll ever make isn't a stock pick. It's investing in yourself. It's coming up with a framework or process that keeps you from making the mistakes that cost everything. So before you go, I want to show you something that I think is actually a better opportunity for most investors. These are the three ETFs that you can buy when the market is up and when the market is down. And if you do this consistently over time, the math says you can retire a multi-millionaire. So click the video on your screen right now. I'll show you exactly what they are and exactly how it works. Thank you for your time.