The Bitcoin Bart is Still Valid

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and somebody me forgot that the market was closed. The markets were closed yesterday. So, not a great deal has happened since yesterday's video. Obviously, I've got a few tabs here, but I'm pretty much just going to recap this thing and hopefully be out of here as soon as possible so as not to waste my time and more importantly, not to waste yours. We are still sitting around 6040 in probability of rate hikes and I still think we're going to move this way. Time will tell. Okay, about another week or so to go and then we'll be there. This is still the most important level in finance according to this camel on the internet. We need to break 83K or else this yellow squiggle is still in play. No matter how much people don't want to believe it or want to say it's invalidated or want to say it's about to be invalidated. Nobody knows. Okay. And as long as we're below this red line, then it actually is in play. It's not only in play. It's the most probabilistic outcome. Break above 83K and we can start to scratch this idea off and say this was wrong. But as it stands right now, okay, we're still doing the bot. I don't care what anyone says. Okay, TA does not lie. And right now it is saying we're doing a Bart Simpson pattern. So we must be aware of that. It must be open to everything here until something changes. And as Andrew points out, the move we got on Bitcoin was certainly more powerful than he expected. Me too. As you can see, we did come beyond my yellow squiggle. I wasn't really expecting us to get so close to 83K, but generally speaking, if it Barts here, then no problem really. Same thing. But Andrew is running a slightly different count and has this as the half cycle low in the weekly cycle. I'll zoom in and show you that in a moment. If you've seen enough charts though, you've no doubt seen one where a new low bounces strongly to reach a previous lower high. And that previous lower high serves as a rejection zone before a move to the final low comes. It's also what I often refer to as a subtle tell or a hint from the market. And right now, there is a subtle tell and a subtle hint in the form of a lower high. Okay? If the market really wanted to go higher, we'd see some higher highs. And I know a lot of people have been asking me of late, well, how come certain altcoins have already done that? The simple answer is, well, there's two simple answers. First of all, Bitcoin is not soul or ETH or any of these other charts. Okay, so you can have slightly different counts in altcoins versus Bitcoin. For example, you could have expanded flat corrections here wherein we make new price extremes on the altcoin charts whilst Bitcoin does a slightly different count thus printing lower highs, okay, without expanded corrections. And the second answer is these altcoins are higher beta, right? If you think about what higher beta means, it means it moves more to the upside when the underlying in this instance, Bitcoin is moving up. And that also means they move down harder and faster when the underlying again in this case Bitcoin is moving down. So if Bitcoin has done this big strong push here, your higher beers such as ETH, Soul, and any other alts that you might be tracking, when Bitcoin moves up strongly, they tend to move up even stronger. But the same is true on the downside. Okay, that's what higher beta is. If Bitcoin is going to do the Bark, man, then it's only reasonable that your ETH or whatever pattern is going to come down harder and faster. You can't really change the overall trajectory, unfortunately. Okay, I suppose in a parallel universe in all of infinity out there somewhere, there is a realm in which Bart shows up on the Bitcoin chart, meanwhile, Ethan Soul just go into a new ball. But unfortunately for the altcoiners out there, I don't think we live in that one of the infinite parallel universes. Okay, I think the one we live in says that whatever Bitcoin does, the alts will do. So if Bitcoin does this and moves down, then ETH is going to do this and move down with it. And if ETH and Soul or whatever are leading here, then you better believe that Bitcoin is about to follow it. Okay? But we don't know if these alts are leading or lying. And we can't say, well, they've made new highs, therefore the whole market is bullish. We don't know that because they could throw expanded corrections whilst Bitcoin continues to print lower highs, bar its way back down. So, a lot of people tried to oversimplify the market. They tried to say, well, if the dollar's going up, Bitcoin must go down. But that's not true. Okay? The inverse isn't true. Markets are complex. There's often multiple factors going on all in one time and oversimplification is sometimes a curse more than a blessing. Speaking of ETH, let's take a look at the current breakout. No real changes. Okay, still pretty lackluster. It does have that higher high in favor. Okay, and if it was a standalone asset class, I would say this is positive, but because it's a higher beta to Bitcoin and Bitcoin is still absent of the lower high, then I don't think we can read that much into this. Okay. Now, feel free to reject that information as always. If it's leading though, we're soon going to see Bitcoin print that higher high. And that's why we call it the most important level in finance. Okay, this is the be all end for the crypto market. Without this higher high, the yellow squiggles in play. And if the yellow squiggles in play, do you honestly think your alts are going to keep pumping whilst Bitcoin does something like this? No. So, we can all agree on that, I hope. Meanwhile, gold, I think, is kind of showing us what's about to happen in the crypto market. It convinced everyone the lowers in. Okay, it threw some breakout structures. People started to go, "Oh yeah, here we go." And now it's catching the yellow squiggle back up. It's really not that far, is it? Another one of these, right? This is the A, the B, the C, or the two drives. First drive, capture mount, second drive. Quite simply, if we can repeat this leg from in here, perhaps. Okay, we'll be almost back there, won't we? We'll be very nearly back to home base, printing that cycle low. Sentiment will be washed because this will look like breakout, retest, failed cycle, resumption, and then back below the breakout level. But really, we won't be that dissimilar from the yellow squiggle in the first place. And thus, I do wonder if this big bull trap that's about to, by the looks of things, don't know this for sure, but I'm just looking at this price action and thinking it probably does want a second drive to get back down here, just like silver does as well, right? Breaking away, but it looks like it's done the first drive. Second drive will get us down here. And then all is right with the yellow squiggle. And to me, it just kind of seems like this is hinting at what is coming to Bitcoin. Bitcoin deviated away. It's convinced people that the thing is bullish. It's looking very good. It's looking stronger. The move from here to here happened faster than most were expecting. And it went further than most were expecting. But it does also look to me suspiciously like it is possibly going to move down here and possibly catch this yellow squiggle back up just like gold is about to do, just like gold is in the process of doing. So just because gold has done it doesn't mean Bitcoin will. Okay, I could easily be wrong about Bitcoin and it could be that the altcoins are leading here and if true then we'll maybe get a timing base low sometime around when is this due? It is due around the second or third of October. So we may get something like this into the second or third of October and then a big green push. Not that big. Let me try again. Okay, then a big green push and this will be the new bull market resumption level. This will be us thinking, okay, time to get bullish. Time to look for the first big ABC pullback to buy. Okay, and then off we go. that will be the area accumulate a bunch of higher beta assets and that also may end up being higher up on the chart up here. Okay, but the big news will be we will be in a new bull market and thus it should be an easy penny environment going forward for the next couple of years at least. Okay, and that's assuming we left translate. What if we right translate? It could be more than two years. Could be more like three years. Okay, so good times could be around the corner. So don't get it twisted. I'm not a perma bear. I'm not here trying to say the sky is falling or crypto is going to zero or Bitcoin is going to 3K. It's nothing like that. I'm not treating this any different to any other asset class. I just draw a yellow squiggle based on my experience and the cycles and then we stick with it until it's invalidated. And right now, unfortunately for a lot of people, right, it's not invalidated. It's actually a good thing. We want it to be lower. We want the cycles to play out more consistently than they have been of late because that gives us a high probability, easy to identify setup. Markets are seldom easy. Okay? So, let's hope this is easy because it's not often that things are easy and when they're easy, then we do better. It's quite simple. Wanting this to happen here throws a lot of complexity for many months into the future. We will never, no matter how high it goes, be able to rule out something like this coming into the 4-year low. we'll never be able to rule that out until we are well past February of 2027. So that means we'll have to be on guard for a long time. Whereas if we come down here, okay, and this is in, that's practically it. It's a binary setup. Okay, that low should hold if it's a new bull market. If it doesn't, it's pretty much over. Okay, but all the while that low is holding, then it's a new bull market. Every dip is for buying. Easy penny environment. So that's all it is. trading the cycles, trading the system, letting the edge do the work for me, and keeping an eye on invalidation, which so far, as you know, because I've said it a hundred times this week, has not been hit. So, gold, silver, and miners should be ready to be accumulated by yours truly within the next couple of weeks. I still maintain ETH and alts are lying, and they're about to upset a lot of people. And I still maintain Bitcoin is undergoing the yellow squiggle until such time as we hit invalidation. All that's really left is for this to keep happening. It doesn't have to trace this one for one, but something approximating this wherein we're kind of chopping and range until mid to late September and then we have this big blowoff top moment. So, this is also a very binary and easy trade at the moment. Okay, if we failed the cycle, then we topped for the 4 year and the weekly and we'll be in a declining phase for the foreseeable future. If this yellow squiggle continues to play out something like this, then happy days, okay? And we look to sell trend line breakdowns up here towards Christmas. That would be quite nice just from a camel perspective because camel likes to go on holiday for Christmas and step away from the charts. Most of you will have seen me do this if you've been here any length of time. I like to empty the portfolio a little bit, take some gains off the table and then go and have Christmas with my family. So, this would be the gift that keeps on giving as far as I can tell. And then after Christmas, we can come back hopefully rotate those gains into the four-year cycle of Bitcoin crypto micro strategy. Happy days. Now, that all does sound lovely, doesn't it? But don't get it twisted. It's only one of many possible paths. It's easy to say it now. It's a lot harder to do it in real time. But to me, this just doesn't really look like the bottom's in here. And I've been saying sentiment doesn't match. I could easily be wrong. If I am, we'll know exactly where. But really, that is all there is to say. So, long and strong in the stocks, ready to buy metals as soon as we can get that second drive here down to somewhere in this neighborhood. Expecting Bitcoin to basically do this same thing. and then puke again. Kind of something like we did back here, I would guess. I would assume it would be something like this. Wait, this doesn't even fit from the cycles, does it? This would take ages. Probably going to have to look more like this one. Yeah, it's probably going to have to look more like this one. Okay, so top soon, head down, cycle failure, head for the 4-year low, catch this yellow squiggle back up. That's just what I think is going to happen. Time will tell. Semis starting to come alive again, aren't they? So just need a higher high and then I think we can have a high degree of confidence that this yellow screen is going to play albeit from here. So I'll leave this here optimistically for now and then look for some fades to in the likes of Coinbase, Micro Strategy, etc. So I'm your boy Campbell. Click here in about 10 seconds to get started with all things trading and I'll see you tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. Finance, he's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Finance got the marketies on those emot