…a and not the data center business continues
to grow for them. We've seen some big moves
in software names after earnings as well. If you had to put new money
into a software name post earnings, which one would it be?
That's not Microsoft. I still like alphabet, right? If I think the. Alphabet doesn't
count as. I. Cannot come on. They provide traditional software
that's not a hyper scalar. I'm going to wait and see what Apple
does under the direction of their new CEO. Okay, so Apple
has software as a ser…
I still like alphabet, right?
AI-extracted context
If you had to put new money into a software name post earnings, which one would it be? That's not Microsoft. I still like alphabet, right?
AI-extracted context
So we have, Nvidia in there. Also have alphabet. I like micron, I like Taiwan Semiconductor because their importance only continues to grow
I like Taiwan Semiconductor because their importance only continues to grow 70% market share as it relates to what they do as a dedicated chip foundry company
AI-extracted context
So we have, Nvidia in there. Also have alphabet. I like micron, I like Taiwan Semiconductor because their importance only continues to grow 70% market share as it relates to what they do as a dedicated chip foundry company
… you don't mind. So we have, Nvidia in there. Also have alphabet. I like micron. I like Taiwan Semiconductor
because their importance only continues to grow 70% market
share as it relates to what they do as a dedicated chip
foundry company like Digital Realty. Perhaps that's not my favorite
in this space, but there are other reads as well that continue to build out
data centers despite the Nimby movement, which I'm really interested to see if that
continues after the midterm elections. American …
like Digital Realty.
AI-extracted context
So we have, Nvidia in there. Also have alphabet. I like micron, I like Taiwan Semiconductor because their importance only continues to grow 70% market share as it relates to what they do as a dedicated chip foundry company like Digital Realty.
…attractive level. What's the best way to play that? I think you got to build a diversified
pool of utilities, as I always do. You can invest in the ETF so you or
you can build a portfolio of names like we have with American Electric Power,
Duke Energy, NextEra energy. Look for the nuclear component as well. All those utilities
that own nuclear power plants are going to be key to their revolution. So outside of utilities, health care tech,
what other opportunities and defense you mention…
Duke Energy
AI-extracted context
I think you got to build a diversified pool of utilities, as I always do. You can invest in the ETF so you or you can build a portfolio of names like we have with American Electric Power, Duke Energy, NextEra energy.
…vel. What's the best way to play that? I think you got to build a diversified
pool of utilities, as I always do. You can invest in the ETF so you or
you can build a portfolio of names like we have with American Electric Power,
Duke Energy, NextEra energy. Look for the nuclear component as well. All those utilities
that own nuclear power plants are going to be key to their revolution. So outside of utilities, health care tech,
what other opportunities and defense you mentioned, what other op…
NextEra energy.
AI-extracted context
I think you got to build a diversified pool of utilities, as I always do. You can invest in the ETF so you or you can build a portfolio of names like we have with American Electric Power, Duke Energy, NextEra energy.
CrowdStrike Fortinet. I think what they're doing to use AI to thwart eye attacks is incredibly important for our entire economy. But the stocks are still trading undervalued right now.
AI-extracted context
I do like in terms of deployment, the cybersecurity of the I trade, there's a little bit of a hardware element to that in software. CrowdStrike Fortinet. I think what they're doing to use AI to thwart eye attacks is incredibly important for our entire economy.
CrowdStrike Fortinet. I think what they're doing to use AI to thwart eye attacks is incredibly important for our entire economy. But the stocks are still trading undervalued right now.
AI-extracted context
I do like in terms of deployment, the cybersecurity of the I trade, there's a little bit of a hardware element to that in software. CrowdStrike Fortinet. I think what they're doing to use AI to thwart eye attacks is incredibly important for our entire economy.
…or me. Best place to hide if volatility spikes. Utility sector one stock you buy today
with no hesitation. That's not Nvidia or Micron. American Electric power
in the utility. Sector. One stock you'd sell today
or avoid with no hesitation. Tesla best stock to own through year end. That's not Microsoft. That's not engineer micron. I'll say Taiwan Semiconductor. Finish this sentence. If the fed hikes. The biggest mistake investors can make is. Becoming fearful,
abandoning their long…
Tesla
AI-extracted context
One stock you'd sell today or avoid with no hesitation.
Full Transcript
Joining me now is Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment
officer at Ian Walsh Asset Management. Kevin, always good to have you. Thanks for being back at the desk. It's
great to be back. Thanks for having. I want to get a check in on your bullishness
because we have oil near $100 a barrel. We have rates higher. We have the market pricing and a fed
hike next week. Yeah the S&P 500 a bit lower right now
but sitting very close to all time highs. Are you still bullish. Am I still bullish. Yes. Am I still optimistic long term. Yes. Do I think there will be more short
term bouts of volatility over the near to medium term? Yes. And I think what investors have to need to keep in perspective
is that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate. Not going the other direction. The Strait of Hormuz is still not open. We have oil back above $100 a barrel. We're having two very important inflation
reports come out this week, which will, in all likelihood,
remind us that inflation stays above 3%. The Fed's target is 2%. So it's going to take them quite some time
to get back to that 2% level. Oh, and let's not forget about the midterm
elections in November. All of that is going to create
more volatility. But that doesn't mean
investors should flee to the sidelines and try to time the market, because I still think there are growth
opportunities. And each time
there's a pullback that creates attractive entry opportunities
in certain areas of the market. So just clarify short
term bouts of volatility means you think
we're going to see some weakness here. We could definitely see some weakness
what we saw on Tuesday. What we're seeing today is likely
what we're going to see for the balance. I'd say if the next month and a half
to two months, these days when the market is down 300 to 500 points, a little bit
of bounce back because investors start nibbling at that dip, but then more
pullback as the tensions escalate. Again, oil prices remain high. The investors are confused about what
the fed is going to do or not do. Then we're going to learn that there's
going to be a balance of power in Washington,
which is actually a good thing, but that always creates volatility. So I think there's going to be more
of these intermittent pullbacks but not a serious correction. But with the S&P 500
about 2% away from all time highs, is it properly pricing in all of these risks
that it's really up against. No. But it's also not properly
pricing in the earnings growth that we've seen thus far
this year and the earnings growth that we're expecting
for the bounce of this year and next year. So I think that earnings growth is
what's going to save this market. And these pullbacks
from going into a more serious correction. You always say you already said it. It's time in the market
not timing the market. So it's still safe to put cash
to work at these levels. I believe so. And I'll go back to the statistics.
Once again. We did
this study. Hartford did a study as well. We looked at the last 20 years
worth of data, and what we found was that if an investor missed out on just the ten best days in the market
over those 20 years, the returns were cut in half. If they missed out in the best 30 days,
the returns were reduced by 84%. None of us here have a crystal ball. So you need to stay invested,
but diversified in accordance with what your risk tolerance is, making adjustments
along the way as appropriate. Can you make the case that it's time
to keep some dry powder on hand though? It really depends on what your goals are
and what your risk tolerance is. If, in fact, you want to keep an emergency fund,
you should always have about six months worth your earnings sitting in cash
to cover unique scenarios that you're. Talking about, cash
to potentially buy at lower levels. But then again, that's trying to time
the market. And I don't know when those lower levels
are going to come. But if there is a big pullback,
historically the best days happen after the worst days. So if you do have money sitting in cash,
maybe that's a good time to deploy it. What would make you tell investors don't put fresh money to work here? I think you'd really have to start
thinking hard if oil gets above $120 a barrel,
if ten year yield goes above 5%. Now all of a sudden the bond market is telling us
that things are about to get a lot worse, and oil may stay at those levels
for a much longer period of time. If oil stays above $120 for an extended
period of time, then the U.S. consumer has the less money to invest because they have to spend more
on gasoline as they spend less. Given that the consumer accounts for 70% of our economic growth,
the economy slows further. Then what's the fed to do? They can't jump in and cut interest rates
if inflation is also still high as well. So they're stuck in the middle. That would be the biggest concern to me. There is a 62% chance right
now, according to the CME fed watch tool,
that the fed will hike next week. Yes. What could that do to this market? Well, so at 38% chance they do nothing. But I think the fed should do nothing. But I do think the fed may now
think they have to do something. But I would also argue that maybe the bond market
has done their work for them already. You look at the ten year
yield right now 42. That's the highest it's
been since November of 2023. And I would also ask chair, if in fact,
they're considering a rate hike of 25 basis points now because of their concerns
with high oil prices. What will that rate hike do to open the Strait of Hormuz
or to bring down oil prices? And if I'm also reading the bond market
correctly, looking out to next year, they think that interest rates are going to come down
next year between 25 to 50 basis points. So perhaps this inflation
is, I hate to say it but transitory. And they believe that this conflict
will come to an end. And just as quickly as oil prices ran up,
they could start to come back down. Can the stock market
move higher if the fed hikes rates? If the ten year yield is near 5%? Yes and yes. I don't think the market will be
caught off guard if the fed raises by 25 basis points. Now, if they follow through
and raise again in October and December. That would certainly catch me off guard. If the ten year rises above 5% and now
all of a sudden the 30 year is creeping up near five and three quarters
6%, that would catch me off guard. But that's not my base case right now. So the markets can absorb a 25
basis point rate hike. The markets are already absorbing
where yields are right now. And if you just continue
to follow the money Caroline you'll continue to find those growth
opportunities. Would a rate hike change your investment
strategy at all though? It would not in the slightest. Now if in fact
now all of a sudden share Warsh comes out next week and says we're raising
interest rates by 25 basis points, and I'm going to give you some forward
looking guidance. I would first fall off my chair and then
I would listen to what that guidance is. If it sounds much more hawkish, then that might make me change
some of the allocations going forward. But he's not going to.
That's not his M.O.. All right. So talk to us
about what we should be doing right now other than putting money to work. Where do we want to put it? Where are the best opportunities? I still think it's following the money
I infrastructure. I just saw a stat the other day that we've
already spent $1 trillion this year. Companies on I infrastructure investments
$1 trillion. Johnson was forecasting 3 to $4 trillion
by the end of this decade. Boy, we well ahead of that already. Well, that slow down
perhaps, but it's going to continue. Power water solutions
aerospace and defense. I just saw that the US Navy
put in a contract for Raytheon or RTX for their Tomahawk missiles, to replenish
what they've used already over in Iran. Money continues
to be spent on defense and health care. I always talk about health care with you, but that M&A activity that's taking place
in biotech is only accelerating. Last time Nvidia was your number one
stock for new money. Is it still. It will always be one of my top
stocks for new money, because they sit at the hub of the ecosystem
and everything they touch turns to gold. What's one I stock that
maybe it's gotten too expensive for you? I wouldn't say micron, that's for sure. I know a lot of people think that micron
has run up too high too fast. The stock's up over 600%
over the last year. Look at their Ford PE still trading
at roughly six times forward earnings. But then you look at a company like
Palantir I really like what Palantir does. I think they're in the right space. But it's hard to chase after stock
that's trading at those types of multiples right here. Like the stock
don't like the price it's trading at. But if it comes in a little bit
more realistic than I like it even more. Give us some other names
that you would buy today. Yes. I'll give you my er seven names
if you don't mind. So we have, Nvidia in there. Also have alphabet. I like micron. I like Taiwan Semiconductor
because their importance only continues to grow 70% market
share as it relates to what they do as a dedicated chip
foundry company like Digital Realty. Perhaps that's not my favorite
in this space, but there are other reads as well that continue to build out
data centers despite the Nimby movement, which I'm really interested to see if that
continues after the midterm elections. American Electric Power
I know that's a lot of, strategist favorite utility name right
now, but it's been mine for a while now. You can go back and look at previous shows
I really like. What they do is supplying electricity
to 5 million customers in 11 states, including the State of Virginia
data center, Capital World, and they pay good dividend
and for the cooling side of it. So those are the names that I like
and continue to like. And guess what? Through September the 4th, those names,
those seven names equally weighted are up roughly 60% year to date. And you'd still get into all of them
today. On an equal weighted basis. Yes. So what about, you know, earnings season obviously has happened
since we last spoke. Still technically going on. Are there any names
that you feel differently about now that they've reported or maybe you've seen
a run up or the opposite? If anything, it reaffirmed
my conviction in the state and the health of the air revolution. And certainly as it relates to Nvidia,
I know we're always going back to Nvidia, but look at what they're doing
to diversify their revenue base. Yes, the number one
chip seller in the world. Yes. They're now building their next advanced generation chip
with the Reuben chip, which needs high bandwidth memory,
which comes from Mike Brown. But don't let me digress, but look what they're doing
in their data center business. It's now accounting
for over 80% of their revenue. So they're not as reliant upon the chip
sales anymore, which have a political connotation
in terms of what can be sold to China and not the data center business continues
to grow for them. We've seen some big moves
in software names after earnings as well. If you had to put new money
into a software name post earnings, which one would it be?
That's not Microsoft. I still like alphabet, right? If I think the. Alphabet doesn't
count as. I. Cannot come on. They provide traditional software
that's not a hyper scalar. I'm going to wait and see what Apple
does under the direction of their new CEO. Okay, so Apple
has software as a service business. I guess that it counts, you know,
not a sales force, not a service. Now. No. And no. I do like in terms of deployment,
the cybersecurity of the I trade, there's a little bit of a hardware element
to that in software. CrowdStrike Fortinet. I think what they're doing to use
AI to thwart eye attacks is incredibly important
for our entire economy. But the stocks are still trading
undervalued right now. And I think there's a catch up week. We have the Apple event
going on right now. Actually. You said you're waiting
and seeing on Apple. What do you need to hear? What would make you go in. On how serious they are about AI? Tim Cook didn't appear to be,
and I know I've always said this for your Apple is really first to market,
but they're often that's the market. So they take their time to analyze,
let others succeed, others fail, learn from it, acquire
and then deploy. But how much longer are they going to
wait? Are they going to buy or are they going
to build, or are they going to acquire? What's the mindset of this new CEO? I know he's
got a background in hardware engineering. He understands the science,
he understands the technology. But does he understand
how to grow the business? Last time you were on,
you said if oil gets near $100 a barrel,
you would start thinking about utilities. This is a list of that. Brant Brant hit $100. Now's the time. Where do we go? Yeah, I think utilities make sense
for a number of reasons. High oil prices, high natural gas
prices, high gas prices, more volatility ahead. It in my opinion,
like we're seeing thus far this week. And utilities historically have held up
well in the face of volatility. They generally pay good dividends to
combat these higher on yields right now. And they've also become a backdoor
plan to the AI revolution. So everything that you just mentioned
and I just mentioned utilities check all the boxes. And they're not trading as rich
as they were now as they were last year. It's actually one of the underperformers.
Yeah. As a sector it's basically flat. Rate which everyone here's the question
why is it off so much. Well you have to look back.
Why was it up so much last year. So now it's trading
at a much more attractive level. What's the best way to play that? I think you got to build a diversified
pool of utilities, as I always do. You can invest in the ETF so you or
you can build a portfolio of names like we have with American Electric Power,
Duke Energy, NextEra energy. Look for the nuclear component as well. All those utilities
that own nuclear power plants are going to be key to their revolution. So outside of utilities, health care tech,
what other opportunities and defense you mentioned, what other opportunities
are you seeing right now? What are their names? I still like bonds. I mean, yeah, the dare I talk about bonds? I mean, if you look at what's taking place
with the rising yields, there's an inverse relationship
historically with yields and prices. So as yields have spike,
prices have come down. And if you believe as I do that
yields are eventually going to come back. Well now all of a sudden these prices here
are trading at very attractive levels. So you might get some good total return
coming out of that plus the consistent coupon stream
that gives you income. Okay. You know a day like today,
you know we're seeing red arrows but the S&P is only down
4/10 of a percent. It doesn't feel scary. But if you do
if we do see some of these short term bouts of volatility
it might seem more serious. How do we separate. Oh this is just a healthy reset versus oh shoot this could be
the beginning of something bigger. I would say the point in time
when you see 2 to 3 consecutive days of significant pullbacks of one
and a half to 2% each, that means you're not finding money coming off the sidelines
to buy those dips. Then we could be in
for a much more serious correction. Not a long term one,
but a much more serious correction. But I still think each time
you see the market pullback 1 to 1.5%, even with the Nasdaq, the technology
laden Nasdaq Composite Index, when that comes back in by 2%,
the bottom feeders charge it. Because as they. Us
the longer term potential. Without a doubt. If you could only put money in one
area today, what would it be? I still like aerospace and defense, but it needs to be a blend of the space
and the defense. A company like move, ticker symbol Mogu. They really diversified
between space, space propulsion, space vehicles
and the defense side of their portfolio. Raytheon, which has Collins Aerospace,
Pratt and Whitney with the engines for the aircrafts and of course
Raytheon's for the Tomahawk missiles. I think that's a good way to play
all the money that's going to be thrown at that area over the upcoming years. So it's not just a play for 2026,
it's a play for the next decade. U.S. or international. We're not even at this or that yet. But I still like over waiting U.S.. But, I have a quote,
the International Development International emerging in my portfolio. And what about small caps? Because last time you were on,
I checked, you put small caps over large caps,
but it was a tough decision. If we see a rate hike with given
how far the Russells run. Yeah. Would that still be the case? Small caps are still significantly
outperforming large caps year to date, but certain small caps are more susceptible
to rate hikes than others. Regional banks, for one. But these biotechs
still remain attractive, and the large cap pharmaceuticals
don't need to access the credit markets at higher rates to acquire those smaller
cap biotech names. So it depends on where you are
in small cap. But I don't know if large cap
is going to make back where or how much they're lagging. Small cap even if the fed does
raise interest rates once okay. All right. I think this is a good time
to pivot to our to officially pivot to our rapid fire
game of this or that. You've played many times. Yes. Quick questions, quick answers. No hedging Kevin. To go up the game. This is a fun
game. It's a. Game. What do I win? Fed rate
hike rally killer or healthy reset. Neither I think the market's
going to take that fed rate hike. And we'll see almost no significant
movement up or down in the markets. If we do buy the dips or brace
for more downside. By the. Rest of 2026
rally continues or reality check. Reality check until after the midterms. And then we'll see a nice, strong
Santa Clause rally. So S&P 8000
still on tracker off the table. It's still possible. Oil at 100 buying opportunity
or warning sign. For oil I'd say it's a warning sign
because just as quick as it went up it could come back down. Foldable iPhone Apple Catalyst or not
event Apple Catalyst earnings winner you'd bet on Signet
Jewelers or Jersey Mike's jersey. Mike's I'm a Jersey. Boy consumer stock. You have the highest
conviction and right now. Dick's Sporting Goods. Nvidia buy here or wait for a pullback. Always Biden. Video IBM Opportunity or trap. Opportunity. Space X attractive yet
or still too expensive? Still too expensive for me. Best place to hide if volatility spikes. Utility sector one stock you buy today
with no hesitation. That's not Nvidia or Micron. American Electric power
in the utility. Sector. One stock you'd sell today
or avoid with no hesitation. Tesla best stock to own through year end. That's not Microsoft. That's not engineer micron. I'll say Taiwan Semiconductor. Finish this sentence. If the fed hikes. The biggest mistake investors can make is. Becoming fearful,
abandoning their longer term investment plans and going to the sidelines
and try to time the market. Kevin Mahn,
I always appreciate you joining us. Thanks so much. That's Kevin Mahn of Hennigan
and Walsh Asset Management.
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