…t big pullback. Gold just had one. Copper will have one, too. But a mine takes 17 years to build. And China has been buying gold for 23 months straight without even blinking. Neither of those things cares about one bad month on the screen. I would rather own the companies digging the metal out of the ground and wait for the headlines to tell me it's safe. Freeport and Ken Ross. That's where I'd start. Folks, don't forget to subscribe to the channel and be sure to join my Black Ops trading service. My weekly newsletter will hit your inbox every Friday. Our live sessions will be every Monday. You get an additional live session every Thurs…
I would rather own the companies digging the metal out of the ground and wait for the headlines to tell me it's safe. Freeport and Ken Ross. That's where I'd start.
AI-extracted context
So, that's really the big picture setup. Freeport is the copper leg. It is the stronger stock with a mine coming back online into a shortage and a gold kicker on top. Hen Ross is the gold leg. It's the beaten up one. Priced like the small miss matters more than the gold price does. One's running, one's resting. Both get paid if this boom has as many years left as I think it does. Every boom has a moment when people decide it's over. Usually that's the first big pullback. Gold just had one. Copper will have one, too. But a mine takes 17 years to build. And China has been buying gold for 23 months straight without even blinking. Neither of those things cares about one bad month on the screen. I would rather own the companies digging the metal out of the ground and wait for the headlines to tell me it's safe. Freeport and Ken Ross. That's where I'd start. Folks, don't forget to subscribe to the channel and be sure to join my Black Ops trading service.
Full Transcript
In September, China's central bank bought about 23 tons of gold. This was its biggest single month in almost three years, and it was the 23rd month in a row. Think about what that means. The second biggest economy on Earth has been quietly turning its paper money into metal every single month for almost two years. And it's not just the government. Chinese families are doing the exact same thing. Now, a lot of people are seeing that headline and they'll think, "Okay, gold, I missed it." I don't think you missed anything because gold is only half the story. The bigger half is a metal sitting in the walls of your house right now and the world is running short of it. Today, I'm going to show you why I believe this commodity boom is still early. The number from the world's top energy agency that tells us why and the two stocks I'd use to ride both metals. So, if you're new here, hit subscribe. My research is deep and I do it to save you the time. Now, I keep using the word early. Why is that? Well, because commodity booms don't work like stock boom. You see, when a tech company, a software firm gets popular, it can go hire a few hundred engineers and double its output in a year. When the world needs more copper, somebody has to find it, dig it out of a mountain, crush it, and ship it. And that takes a long, long time. The International Energy Agency says a new copper project takes about 17 years to go from discovery to production. 17 years. In other words, a copper mine that opens in 2043 had to be discovered by now. And the IEA also says only 5% of all copper deposits found in the last 35 years were found in the last decade. The miners just aren't finding much. So that's why these booms run so long. Demand can turn on in a year, but supply takes the better part of two decades to answer. Which brings us to the number that I think matters most. Now, copper is the plumbing of the modern world. It's in every power line, every car, every air conditioner and phone charger. Anything you plug into an outlet has copper in it. And we are using more of it than ever. Data centers are eating it by the ton. So, the IEA ran the numbers. It added up every copper mine operating today, plus every new mine that's been announced, and compared that to how much copper the world's expected to need. Their answer is that by 2035 mine supply comes up 25% short. One quarter of the copper the world needs in 2035. Doesn't have a mind behind it yet. Now to be fair, this number actually improved a little bit. In the 2025 report, it was about 30% short. There's some new projects in Africa that narrowed that gap a little bit. But look at the situation. a 25% shortfall in something you cannot easily substitute that takes 17 years to bring online. What happens to the price of that thing? Well, just over the last 10 years, we've seen copper go from $2.20 a pound to $664 a pound. Three times higher in a decade. And the IEA is telling you the shortage hasn't even shown up yet. Now, why does that matter so much for a minor? Well, because a mine's costs barely move when the copper price move. They use the same diesel, the same trucks, the workers cost over the same salaries either way. So, almost every extra dollar on the copper price drops straight to the profit. In other words, when copper goes up a little, a miner's profit goes up a lot. That's why the right copper stock can run a lot faster than copper itself. So, which one? Well, Freeport Macaran is the biggest publicly traded copper miner based in America. It runs the giant Mariny mine in Arizona, has big operations in Peru and Chile, and one of the largest copper and gold deposits on the planet, Grassburg in Indonesia. Now, you might remember Grassburg had a disaster in September 2025. A mud rush inside the underground mine shut down a big chunk of production. And that's exactly why I like Freeport here. In the third quarter, Gberg was running at about 67% of its normal rate. Freeport says it expects to be near full capacity by the end of 2027. So most miners out there are fighting to squeeze a few percent more at retired old mines. Freeport has a third of one of the world's biggest miners still coming to bring back right as the world is running short on copper. That's growth that most copper companies would kill for. And it doesn't need a single new discovery. And there's a bonus a lot of people forget. Grassber isn't just copper. It's one of the biggest gold mines in the world, too. So, Freeport gets paid on both legs of this boom. Now, the stock trades in the low7s. It's about 70% up over the last year, and it's trying to break out in new all-time highs. It's not a bargain bin stock like it was a decade ago, but let's zoom out a little. This is a monthly chart of FCX stock going back 20 years and today it is just barely above its 2008 peak. So do not make the mistake of thinking, "Oh, the run is over just cuz the stock's up the last couple of years when for 18 years it has barely moved." Freeport is about to be selling a lot more copper into a market that is short of it. And that is a pretty good place to be. Now, before I get into the gold side, if you want to learn this stuff and figure out how to identify the best places to buy and sell these stocks, you need to join my Black Ops trading service. It is $5 and the best $5 you'll spend all year. This coming Monday, we are going to get together live at 9:00 a.m. Eastern for one hour. Usually go they go hour and a half. And I'm going to take you through the leading stocks in the market. I'll show you how the market works. Other words, what moves, stock prices, and the patterns that tell you what's coming. I will show you my favorite stocks, the leading areas, the indicators that tell us if the market is healthy or about to go into trouble. I even have interactive session for about a half hour where I look at your stocks and review anything you want to look at. So, all that is included with this, plus my weekly newsletter in your inbox, plus my indicators, plus some bonus reports, all for the same five bucks. So, click the link in the description, scan the QR code, or just go to tradewithro.com to get signed up right now. Now, let's go back to China. Why would a government that already owns more than 2300 tons of gold keep buying every single month? Well, analysts at Julius Bayer says the main reason is political. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western governments froze Russia's central bank money. China watched that happen and it learned a lesson. Dollars you hold overseas can be frozen. Gold in your own vault cannot. So, China has been selling US Treasury bonds and buying gold. Not saying that the only reason, but they've contributed to the rise in interest rates. And Chinese families are piling in for their own reasons. The real estate market, where most of them kept their savings, has been stuck in a slump for years, and their bank deposits pay almost nothing. So, what do you do when your house is falling in value and your bank pays you a fraction of percent? You buy gold. Look at this. In just the first eight months of this year, China imported a record 158.8 billion dollar worth of gold. That's more than all of last year combined. And I have four months still to go. Now, here's the part that tells me this is a real boom and not just a temporary fad. Gold just did something it hadn't done in almost 50 years. The old record, adjusted for inflation, was set in January 1980. For 45 years, gold couldn't beat it. Gold finally broke through it in September 2025, then ran to a new all-time high above $5,500 in January. So, when somebody tells you this is the biggest commodity boom in 50 years, gold already made that case. Now, gold has pulled back some since then. and it's sitting just over $4,000 an ounce. And honestly, I'm fine with that. A central bank that buys every month for two years isn't trading the chart. It's just buying every dip. So, if gold is a second leg, how do I want to own it? Well, obviously with a gold miner. And my pick, Ken Ross Gold, ticker KGC. It is one of the bigger gold miners in the world. And we recommended this stock, my alpha stock service two years ago. It made a fortune as it ran 500% in the beginning of this year. It has since pulled back and now sits 40% below its highs. And here's the crazy thing. Look at this chart. Gold is down about 17% since the January peak. Ken Ross is down more than twice that. Why? Well, a couple of reasons. First, in September, Ken Ross said production this year and next would come in two to 3% below the low end of its guidance, mostly because of bad weather and problems at two of its smaller mines. 2 to 3% on two small mines. Meanwhile, its two biggest, lowest cost mines are running well. And in that same update, Ken Ross raised the share of its free cash flow it plans to hand back to shareholders from 40% to 50%. It has returned more than $1.5 billion dollars to shareholders since early 2025. And a company that is confident enough to hand you more cash while the market punishes it for a small miss. That's the kind of disconnect that can really pay off. Now remember why miners move faster than the metal. Okay? It's the spread between their cost and the profits. Ken Ross costs don't move much when gold moves. So if gold goes down a lot, well, their costs are still the same. So their profit shrinks a lot. But when gold goes up back toward its highs, the profit swing at Ken Ross is a lot bigger than the swing in the gold price. In other words, the same reason Ken Ross is down 40% right now is what could make it go 50, 60, 70% higher. Now, there are obviously risks with both of these investments. That's why they're called investments and not guarantees. For copper, the big risk, I believe, is the global recession. If factories slow down, copper demand drops and the price can fall hard in the short run. It doesn't fix the 17-year supply problem, but it delays it. For gold, is China changing its mind. Analysts at Saxo Bank say a real recovery in Chinese real estate and stocks could cool down the gold buy. I'd watch that, but I wouldn't bet on it happening anytime soon. So, that's really the big picture setup. Freeport is the copper leg. It is the stronger stock with a mine coming back online into a shortage and a gold kicker on top. Hen Ross is the gold leg. It's the beaten up one. Priced like the small miss matters more than the gold price does. One's running, one's resting. Both get paid if this boom has as many years left as I think it does. Every boom has a moment when people decide it's over. Usually that's the first big pullback. Gold just had one. Copper will have one, too. But a mine takes 17 years to build. And China has been buying gold for 23 months straight without even blinking. Neither of those things cares about one bad month on the screen. I would rather own the companies digging the metal out of the ground and wait for the headlines to tell me it's safe. Freeport and Ken Ross. That's where I'd start. Folks, don't forget to subscribe to the channel and be sure to join my Black Ops trading service. My weekly newsletter will hit your inbox every Friday. Our live sessions will be every Monday. You get an additional live session every Thursday with my analyst included, plus several bonuses. So, click the link, scan the code, go to tradewiths.com, just get signed up. And otherwise, I'll see you in the next
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