Bitcoin Isn't the Problem. Debt Is.

Today, I'm going to show you why the $80,000 floor that's held Bitcoin up all month has finally cracked and why I don't think the problem is Bitcoin at all. Okay. The real problem is debt. The same debt Elon Musk warned about during the weekend. And while Wall Street was panicking last week, I'll show you why days like these have usually been good times to steadily build your Bitcoin. And by the end of this video, you'll know the one level I'm watching and exactly what I'm doing with my own money, whatever the Fed circus does tomorrow. Last week, I gave you three scenarios. And I'll be honest with you, the oil shock, the one I gave a 25% chance, is the one that turned up because Brent went straight through $112 and Bitcoin slipped under last week's low. Okay, but stick around because the most important number in this video is $24. And later, I'll show you what Bitcoin did after the last three US midterm elections because the next one is a week away. Let's get into this. Here's the Bitcoin daily chart, and you can see the green band at $80,000, which Bitcoin has now tested three times this month. Those three white arrows along the bottom, the last one on Saturday at $79,146. The weekly candle closed on Sunday night at $80,24, just $24 above the line. And if four bare markets have taught me anything, it's to trust the weekly close over the daily noise. Okay, so the floor has cracked, but it hasn't been broken yet. Okay, I'll be straight with you though. Yesterday it dipped under $80,000 again and closed just $9 above it and it's still below both the orange and blue lines, the 20 and 50-day averages, which tells me the bears are trying to take back control. And this is my first warning light. So, who is doing the selling? These are the US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. And last week I told you that one big day is a bounce, not a trend. And that's exactly how it played out. Last Monday and Wednesday each brought in more than $500 million. And then look at that red bar on Thursday minus $636 million. The biggest single day of selling since the 25th of June. And that's Wall Street money for you. All right. It comes in fast and it leaves really fast, which is one reason I'd always rather hold my own keys than an ETF share. Okay. And Thursday was the same day tech stock sold off over fears about how much is being spent on AI. So, Wall Street wasn't dumping Bitcoin because of Bitcoin. It was cutting risk across the board. And the reason why is a warning Elon Musk posted on Sunday. He said debt markets have almost entirely shut off money for any company that doesn't have real revenue outside of AI data centers and he expects most of the 200 smaller AI cloud companies to go under or get swallowed up. Reminds me of the tech bubble back in like the '9s. All right. Then yesterday, Anthropic, the company behind the cloud AI, filed to go public and its filing showed 16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of this year, but an $80.7 billion loss on paper. Mostly an accounting charge on convertible notes, which is borrowed money that turns into shares. and it has promised hundreds of billions of dollars for computing power over the next decade. So the AI boom is now running on debt and promises. And when that kind of borrowing gets shut off, investors sell what they can, Bitcoin included, which is exactly why I never use leverage because nobody can margin call the Bitcoin you own in your wallet. And there's a second squeeze on all that debt and it starts with oil. This is Brent crude which closed on Friday at $116.72. The peak on the far right. It's the highest close since April. That came after Yemen's Houthies claimed strikes on Saudi Arabia, including the port of Yanbu and the East West Oil Pipeline and Saudi Aramco told staff to evacuate its headquarters in Daron. Yesterday, oil pulled back to around $110 after Qatari mediators flew to Tyrron and President Trump said it's getting to be decision time on Iran. But last Thursday, okay, listen to this. I said on X that this war will last decades, okay? And I know I'm right on this one. So, I'm not betting on a deal. And high oil prices keeps inflation high, which keeps interest rates high and makes every one of those debts more expensive. That puts the Fed into a corner tomorrow. So, here's the Fed's circus. Okay, this is the 10-year yield back under 5%. The blue tag on the right because bonds rallied when stocks fell. The box on the left shows traders putting a 92% chance on the Fed holding tomorrow and a 78% chance of another hike in December and the markets will hang on every word. Kevin War says, "But you know my view, it's all theater and I've watched them run the same show in every single cycle." And if you read the creature from Jackal Island, you know that the Fed was set up to protect the banks, not your savings. And with this much debt in the system, they've got one real solution, and that is printing a ton of currency. All right? So, they can talk tough and knock the price around for a few weeks, but in the end, they'll print. And that's exactly why I own Bitcoin. Until they do, though, here's the safety net if this floor does actually go. Okay, this is the Bitcoin weekly chart with three red candles in a row. Okay, from $86,480 down to $80,24. But Bitcoin is still above the 50we average, the white line for the sixth week running. Okay, that that line sits near $75,800 with the 200day average just above it. So that green band is a double safety net and about 5% below the price and that's the level I'm watching. Okay, above us $82,000 is the first level to take back. Then $84,972 the red dashed line. And if Bitcoin closes a week under the 50WE, I'll hold my hands up on the call. Okay. But for a long-term holder, that's a level to add steadily. Okay, not a reason to sell. Please remember that. And Bitcoin isn't the only one sitting on a line this week. Okay, a quick one for the hyperlquid holders, which is my second largest bag, and you can watch that video right here. Hype dipped to $7459, but it never closed the day under my $76 line. So, I'm watching for the next opportunity lower. >> [snorts] >> So, here's how I think the next few days plays out. Okay, my base case is that the Fed holds tomorrow. Talks tough and changes absolutely nothing and Bitcoin chops between $76,000 and $82,000. The bad case is that the tough talk spooks the market with a hot inflation number on Thursday and Brent back above $116 and Bitcoin tests that $76,000 safety net. The good case is an Iran deal. Oil back under $15 and Bitcoin takes back $82,000. And here's the midterm story I promised you. Next Tuesday is the US midterm election. And I have been through the last three in 2014, 2018, and 2022. And every time Bitcoin's final drop came after the vote, okay? And each of those shakeouts turned out to be the best buying opportunity of that entire cycle. So don't be surprised by one more. Okay. Now, a lot of you watching have been in Bitcoin for years. You've got real money in it and you've got a job and a family and you don't have time to watch the charts all day. And that's exactly who our learning crypto membership is for. Okay. Run by Heidi and me who've been doing this on YouTube since 2016. Well, mainly Heidi. I hopped in on 2020. Okay, so it's for the person who wants to hold through the cycles with a clear head and who would rather make a calm decision rather than a panicked one. So if that sounds like you, the link is in the description on the screen now. Now, if you're a long-term holder, nothing about this big picture has changed this week. The pressure on Bitcoin is coming from debt, and a world is drowning in debt, okay? with oil around $110 and a Fed whose only real answer is the printer is exactly what Bitcoin was built for. Okay, there's an unknown amount of gold out there and only 21 million Bitcoin. And in my books, Bitcoin is freaking cheap, guys. Anywhere under $100,000. That's the long-term case for Bitcoin. But the short term is a different story. And I wouldn't be surprised to see $76,000 before the next leg up. So, what am I doing? I'm not trading, my friends. I'm holding my coins in my own wallet with no leverage. And if you haven't started yet, or you want to build your Bitcoin, red days like these have usually been good times to dollar cost average or DCA. steady a little at a time with no rush. If this helped, please give it a like and subscribe. It really does help out our channel. And send it to a friend who's worried about this dip. And tell me in the comments, is $80,000 floor about to break or is this the last shakeout before the next leg up? I'll see you in the next one.