Bitcoin: Why I Haven’t Called the Low Yet

Wow, what a what a sell off again. But again, we remain in a range, my friends. So, remember what I said yesterday, the day after the election, we can get some volatility and the day afterwards, we obviously got more volatility today, but I said yesterday, don't don't over Yeah, don't don't put too much weight on the green candle, right? Because we were still in the range. You see this sideways range that we defined categorized or defined by the green line and the red line. This is still relevant. It it held. Oops, I I moved the chart. Yeah. So, here we are back back at the chart. Um, we defined this green line. It's so simple. Okay, we just used the previous swing highs. Daily candle closes. Yeah, above or below that green line. This one made sense here around 81,238. Then this is our support line that we defined pretty much in line with the short-term holder cost basis we defined a few days ago. We talked about that. And what you see here on the chart, the 50we simple moving average. Yeah. Around, you know, around $75,600. So we're currently between support and resistance and we're in a range. And therefore until we actually break resistance or support and you know we break the range the situation here on the chart doesn't really change. And what's the situation? Well, my view is still that we are in a corrective pullback in an uptrend. And as soon as this correction is over, continue the next move to the upside very clearly. Yeah, this was the idea. Wave 1 or wave A, then the pullback in wave two or wave B and then we can get another rally. important is to highlight that until we get a fivewave move up and a break above the green line which is our first resistance at least. Yeah. At 81,238 there's no sign that a low is in. Okay. So that would be our first indication obviously but look we're still printing and it's quite obvious because of the trend line we're still printing lower lows and lower highs and so we remain in this correction. This is of course a huge red candle today. Basically, the entire well post election gains have been sold off and retraced again. That adds weight to my view that this entire correction is not over yet. I have not confirmed a low yet. But I am definitely recognizing that the 50WE SMA together with that red support line can be strong support even above our standard Fibonacci support zone. And this standard Fibonacci support zone uh you know that one is between 63,326 and 74,84. And ideally the market would reach it before forming a uh you know a meaningful low. Now my idea about this wave count, this correction is still that this could be a wxy structure. I think we talked about that only in yesterday's video. The wave W is a three-wave move. The wave X is a three-wave move. Then we had a three-wave move in wave A, a three-wave move in wave B, and now we could be in a fivewave move down in wave C. I mean, that's at least the thesis. Keep in mind, a C-wave can be impulsive, and the corrections often change, you know, their micro structures, but important is that this entire assumption here that I'm giving you, it allows for lower prices. Yeah. whether look whether this Bwave becomes a bit more complex or I'm not showing all these potentials on the chart because it doesn't matter of course the market could bounce again and move a little bit more in the range until we finally break but important is I still view this as a corrective pullback whether this be wave gets a bit more complex yeah we we should still go a little bit lower and there's still room in this correction so the invalidation point is down here at 57,820 That's the formal invalidation point of this structure. And the ideal support zone is this one, 63,326 to 74,84. And obviously, you know, there's no evidence at this stage that the low is in. I think we now need to take a look at the micro structure. But keep in mind, if this correction finishes in this support zone, the next rally could be the strongest one of this possible fivewave cycle to the upside. Um, we take the length of the wave 1. We go to well, one of the fib levels. I mean, let's just assume the market might even reach here the golden ratio level around 67,868. My very first target to the upside would be even above 100K. Okay. So this is speculative. There is no confirmed low yet. So this is not really a target. I just want to highlight that 100k plus is a potential and is also realistic because it's a standard projection. But the bulls first of all need to form a low give us a fivewave advance from this support area to confirm a low is in. Now let us also take a look at the smaller time frame. Something new for our US viewers. This segment is sponsored by Kalshi. Koshi now offers crypto perpetual futures on its CFTC regulated US exchange covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more. It brings the perpetual futures experience familiar to crypto traders into a regulated US exchange environment. No expiry exposure up or down with a multiplier of up to 6x, giving you increased exposure to both gains and losses. Available to approved US customers only and not in the UK or EU. Sign up for Kalshi with our link in the description and comment section. Okay, so interestingly on the smaller time frame um the market moved back from resistance to support. You see that but only in three waves. So I really can't see a fivewave move in any of these directions which means there's a possibility that we simply stay a bit longer in this range. I've shown here on the chart what a fivewave move down would look like. That doesn't mean we get one. Yeah, it's just highlighting how would a fivewave move look like and what is the initial pivot, the initial resistance? The initial resistance for a first down downside impulse um from the last high is here 76,680 to 78,117. In other words, to keep confir to confirm the the blue count further that we've actually topped in this Bwave and that we are finally yeah starting this C-wave decline. We'd need to see a fivewave decline to confirm that and the market should ideally stay below 78,117 in the next bounce. Now a break above it means this whole thing again becomes more complex and we will likely extend the Bwave for example. So yeah, I mean no major changes here. The market is simply moving between the parameters we already defined. Um, and I would view this resistance zone as a weak resistance zone. I mean, there's no setup there, guys. I mean, you unless you're a range trader, but there's no setup because we haven't seen yet in any direction a fivewave move up. You only have a setup. If you have a fivewave move in one direction, which is a confirmation of the direction, and then a bounce in the other direction. So, basically, let's get the five waves down and then a three-wave move up. That's our so-called one, two setup before the selloff, right? That's all we need. And that would confirm my view that we will likely still go lower. And also, uh, currently the main thesis is still that we are still caught in a correction. So, we have not bottomed yet. But I still view this correction as a corrective pullback before going higher. So all of that kind of is in alignment with what I highlighted before. Um parameters are still holding. No change from my side, but of course keep tracking here the patterns with you together to see if we get a fivewave move, which would then indicate the direction the market wants to break out. And um interesting would be to see that well if we get one more low, we might even get a slight break below um we might get a slight break below um the red line. Okay. and the 50we SMA and then could still snap back into the range. Yeah. So keep that in mind. So yeah, overall not not an easy market, but also I haven't confirmed a low yet. So we have to consider that we will still go lower. That is in line with the expectations and as you might remember the orange box is the zone where I plan to buy as well. I hope it was helpful. If you guys are interested in additional updates, yeah, make sure to check out our membership as well for many additional updates. Thanks so much. Bye-bye.