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Crude Oil Supply Woes Will Take "Quite a Bit of Time" to Fix

Crude Oil Supply Woes Will Take "Quite a Bit of Time" to Fix

Schwab Network
Analyzed Watch on YouTube Requested On
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Calls
3
Buy / Sell
3 0
Published

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Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.

  1. 01 VLO NYSE BUY +0.00%
    Entry $382.95 14 Sep 2026
    Current $382.95 14 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.00
    vs. index +0.0% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (240s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …use we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang. We have a four stars opinion. I got most of those marathon Valero EOG Fang. I may have missed one. When we think abo…

    But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those

    AI-extracted context Yeah. So I think you have to be pretty careful when it comes to investing in energy these days at least temporarily. High oil prices are good for producers. The risk is too much of a good thing because we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang.

  2. 02 FANG NASDAQ BUY +0.00%
    Entry $205.72 14 Sep 2026
    Current $205.72 14 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.00
    vs. index +0.0% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (256s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang. We have a four stars opinion. I got most of those marathon Valero EOG Fang. I may have missed one. When we think about having the move that the administration made by first dealing with Venezuela and then going for Iran, I mean, that also …

    We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang.

    AI-extracted context Yeah. So I think you have to be pretty careful when it comes to investing in energy these days at least temporarily. High oil prices are good for producers. The risk is too much of a good thing because we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang.

  3. 03 MPC NYSE BUY +0.00%
    Entry $396.45 14 Sep 2026
    Current $396.45 14 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.00
    vs. index +0.0% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (240s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …use we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang. We have a four stars opinion. I got most of those marathon Valero EOG Fang. I may have missed one. When we think abo…

    But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those

    AI-extracted context Yeah. So I think you have to be pretty careful when it comes to investing in energy these days at least temporarily. High oil prices are good for producers. The risk is too much of a good thing because we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang.

Full Transcript
at oil and energy as we've seen such a big move here, the Iran war continues. And here for this discussion, Stuart Glickman, deputy research director and energy equity analyst at Cfra research, and Ellen Wald, PhD, author of Saudi Inc. and president of Transversal Consulting. I'm glad to see you both. And with the energy story here on the rise. I mean, I know we've pulled back off the highs here, Ellen, but some of your thoughts, we're still at 101 and there's no relief in sight. What does it mean to have oil over $100. And how long can we sustain that. Well I do think that there's a great deal of significance that's attached to that number, which is really not as significant perhaps, as people think it is. But we really are in a place where we're seeing a supply crunch. We've got, you know, we're no longer releasing oil from our our SPR. China is buying more oil. And now we've got this outage in the east west pipeline from Saudi Arabia. And these are significant factors today where still Persian Gulf oil is greatly constrained coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. And so every other outage has a big effect. And so I'm not surprised that we're seeing oil, you know, at 101 105. You know, it's I think it's actually a testament that it's not even higher. And we're going to be seeing, you know, impacts all across the economy for as long as this lasts. It's not a permanent condition, but how long it lasts really depends on largely the geopolitical situation. And we look look what a big run we've had one month up 25% in one year, 62% for oil. I mean, I'll add in diesel there, store it. As you know, it's at six and a quarter and at new highs. So what does it mean when you talk about supply demand and the flow of oil. Yeah. Nicole. So as bad as it's been for for crude and for gas, who were buying at the pump, it's it's been even worse for truckers dealing with the high diesel prices. Diesel has the additional problem of Russia imposing a ban on exports of refined products from them, in part because Ukrainian drones are attacking Russian refineries. So this is going to percolate its way through the economy. It's really not a good sign at all. And I think to Ellen's point, I am surprised that oil prices haven't risen, at least temporarily, haven't risen higher than they already are. Well, President Trump has said we're going to watch oil drop in a big way. You know, really drop fast at the same time, Ellen, you actually commented on Russia and Ukraine, right? Your thoughts? Yeah. I mean, the situation with Russia, Ukraine, you know, what Trump says is, is great and it sounds good. And I'm sure, you know, certain trading apparatuses pick that up and and react accordingly. But unless this, you know, agreement is actually true, and it does seem that both sides have kind of come out and said, this is this is not confirmed. And so unless we see meaningful, you know, change, if we see Russian refineries coming back online, if we see more diesel coming into the market, nothing that Trump says is actually going to change the supply and demand picture here. Let's talk about investors when they're looking at this oil opportunity. Stuart, you've often brought to us names or types of oil plays. What are your thoughts now there at Cfra. Yeah. So I think you have to be pretty careful when it comes to investing in energy these days at least temporarily. High oil prices are good for producers. The risk is too much of a good thing because we've seen this before. Back in 2008, 2009, oil prices went to 147. And nine months later or seven months later, prices were down below $35 a barrel. So you have to have kind of a cast iron stomach to deal with this kind of volatility. But at the moment, we especially like refiners, Marathon Petroleum, HFC, Sinclair and Valero Energy. We have buys four stars opinions on all of those, and some select upstream names like EOG resources. We have a strong buy of five stars and Diamondback Energy Ticker Fang. We have a four stars opinion. I got most of those marathon Valero EOG Fang. I may have missed one. When we think about having the move that the administration made by first dealing with Venezuela and then going for Iran, I mean, that also gives us some more access to oil in the big picture, does it not here, Elon, particularly with some new agreements that have now happened. Well, here's the issue is that Venezuelan oil is not going to replace what's happening in the Middle East. Yes, Venezuela is a particular case where they do have a vast amount of oil and oil reserves, but it's not so easy to bring that oil to the market. And it's not just as simple as replacing the leadership. They are having a really hard time convincing energy companies to go in and invest in the kind of infrastructure that you need to actually get Venezuela's oil. A lot of it is very difficult to produce, requires a lot of investment and get them to bring it to market. And I think that in the long run, yes, this is a good thing for the oil market and oil supply, and we will need Venezuela's oil, and it will be available on the market at some point and very in a very important ways. But that time is not now and it's not next week, and it's not even going to be this year, and probably even not next year in a really significant way. And so you can't count on that oil to replace what's lost. Now, what's our trend line here, Elon? Are we more likely to hit 90 or 110 in the next few months or near term? I mean, I see a 110 is much more likely than 90. Given the way things are going, it doesn't appear that any meaningful movement is happening in with Iran's situation. You know, we do get headlines every so often, but fundamentally, the two sides are very much stuck, and it's going to take quite a bit of time until something is able to shift on either side that would compel them to to make any meaningful movement. On the other hand, it does depend with the East West pipeline how quickly Saudi Arabia can get that pipeline back in action. But now there is always this threat ■of, you know, terrorism and that it could go offline again and again with Russia, Ukraine. We just we just don't know. So I think that 110 is is absolutely more likely than 90 at this point. What do you think here, Stuart? Where do you think the path of least resistance is. And also you were noting that the higher oil prices every $10 or so affects our inflation affects GDP, which where's the path of least resistance. And our final thought here Stuart. Yeah. Short term I think path of least resistance is higher to Ellen's point. Even if you get the east west pipeline back online, you still have to turn most of those barrels south through the Bab El-mandeb Strait. And that means getting past the Houthis in Yemen. So that's a risk factor as well. So there's a lot of hazards out there that are preventing the regular flow of oil from getting to market. I think it's going to be a lot a lot of things have to go right to get to 90 before we get to 110. All right. Thank you so much. St

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