Holy Sh*t Tesla

Tesla just beat delivery expectations. We've got to talk about what this means for Tesla's stock because today Tesla is having one heck of a ride. And I have to say just a few days ago, we sent out an email totally free. This isn't even a pitch for for anything you have to pay for. We sent out an email, our first Meet Kevin Digest email. And in it, it included a bullish call on Tesla and a price target for Tesla. You can get this for free if you want. Just type into your browser meet Kevin.com/digest or click the link down below, meet Kevin.com/digest, and you hit enter on it, you get this price targets, macro, and wealth every single day for free in an email. I also post these in the daily wealth tab of the Meet Kevin app, but some of you have told me you just prefer getting your recap in an email. And so now we give you a little bit of a recap on videos, on the streams we made, on price target calls we made. And then we link to different videos just to make it easier for you. Like if you want to watch more of the videos, you can to get the sort of deep dive analysis on it. But if you want just a quick like, hey, you know, I haven't I didn't get a chance to watch Kevin today. You know, can I get a quick little recap or whatever, this is an email that we put together for you. Uh, and again, it'll be in the meet Kevin app under the daily wealth tab or uh in email, you could get this via the daily digest. So, just drop your email there. Meet Kevin.com/digest. But that was a bullish call on Tesla and here we are. T uh Tesla just beat delivery expectations fantastically. The stock is up 5%. And there's about a 70% correlation when Tesla goes up, SpaceX also goes up. So SpaceX is essentially solely going up right now because Tesla's up. I mean, the charts are almost perfect here. I personally think people have like an Elon basket and then it's like they're bullish Elon, they buy Elon, they're bearish Elon, they sell Elon, [laughter] which hey, whatever, man. But that's good to know in case you're wondering, you know what's going on with Space. I say it's because Tesla's up. Okay. But so what happened with Tesla and and what do we need to consider uh for the price of the stock? Like why why does this matter for Tesla just another delivery set? Well, matter is a big deal because the auto business is the core of Tesla's business. And what's really crazy is when you compare to last year, quarter three was critical. Why? Because you might not remember this, but I remember this very, very, very important. Last year, Q3 was the last chance for you to take advantage of the EV tax credits. So, September 30th of last year was a massive milestone for Tesla and we pulled forward a lot of demand for Tesla vehicles. Well, that showed us deliveries of 497099. That was what we had last year, Q3. Okay, we just got deliveries that came in at 486532. Now, yes, that number is lower. Oops, I I totally forgot a digit here. There you go. 486 [laughter] 486 532 divided by 497099 that means we are now 23 2.13%. Within the prior year's numbers without the tax credits that's fracking insane. You are talking about effectively, okay, effectively a $7,500 price increase for Teslas and we are literally within 2.13%. You know what that sounds like to me, right? >> Big PP. >> Yeah, that is honestly very very solid for Tesla. That is what I call big pee pe baby. BPP. [laughter] Okay. Now, what why does that matter so much? Why do we care? I thought Tesla was about Optimus or Cyber Cab or whatever. Look, the Cyber Cab's got a lot of work to do because we've got to compress the time frame to get the Cyber Cab operating in different cities across the country and then eventually different countries. That's going to take time. But do you realize what the Cyber Cabs actually are? It doesn't matter right now about the fleet sales. That'll matter in the future. You know what the cyber caps do between now and then? Think about it. It's free advertising. Every single person that's like, "Look at that cyber cab. That looks crazy. Oh, I heard those are driving without a driver." What? Yeah, they have some versions without a steering wheel. OH MY GOSH. CAN I BUY A TESLA? WELL, you can't buy a Cyber Cab yet, but you could buy a Model Y or a Model 3 and get FSD and pay monthly for it and pass some more ARR on to Tesla. You could buy that right now if you want. You know, some inventory available if you want to just hop on over to the dealership, the Tesla store, go online, buy it right now, and you can drive, you can have the car drive yourself home right now. It's the best damn branding ever, bro. It's freaking brilliant. [laughter] It doesn't It doesn't matter that the cyber cap doesn't work everywhere right now. It's advertising. So, they go scatter these things everywhere. And what? [snorts] Like, this is freaking awesome. So, uh I'm really excited uh about what this means for the biggest vertical of the business and it beat expectations by about 5%. But we need to we need to look at the actual spreadsheet here of the biggest vertical of the business. Uh Scott wants to know how much for my black X. Why are you trying to figure out how much my black X is worth? You know, okay, to me that's sentimental. There there is a lot of value writing on my black ex. Somebody else I submitted my email but I didn't get Oh, for the digest. Uh, if you have an issue with anything ever meet Kevin related, just email us at staff meetkevin.com. We will take care of you. That's the job of Kevin boy. I mean, look, Kevin's a happy boy. See? Happy. Reinvest one. This is really cool, by the way. I mean, I want to be bullish about Tesla. Talk about Tesla in just a moment, but this is really, really cool because look at this. Oh, this is sexy. Look at this. Alpha membership, trade alerts, the reinvest stocks platform, reinvest homes, all nine courses, the course member live streams, and the business blueprint product. Bro, you get so much in one product. And this is a complete rewrite that's coming at the end of the by the end of the year. Re the reinvest terminal. This is a a fan freaking tastic. We've even got Tesla as an example over here. Look at this. This will be an example of some of the stuff you get. 96% of the time this appeared. Tesla ran up 30% within 60 days. Bottom line, buy the dip setup is in play, right? Like these are the things that are coming to this product. And it is so freaking exciting what we were building with this. and we're killing just like they you know how they killed lifetime access to FSD and now you have to pay monthly to get full self-driving. That same thing is what we're going to do with this except everybody who has lifetime access to reinvest one by the end of the year keeps it for life and uh anybody who signs up in 2027 or on will be paying uh like an annual fee uh for the product like a license essentially. But that's, you know, Tesla actually shifted to the ARR model for FSD and it's actually quite smart because now when they get new signups on top of their $750 million a year roughly of FSD rev, you're you're expecting that to pretty much be pure revenue just flowing and flowing and flowing. Uh, and that's very exciting because ARR gets a higher multiple on Wall Street. So, it's a great thing. So, what you have here, somebody says, "Need a good way to roll a monthly." No, we're not doing monthly. We'll always end up doing like an annualbased uh option. Uh if you need some kind of like way to break up the payment, you could use a firm or CLA or pay in four or if you'd prefer to break it up, but then you own it for life, but we're we're not doing that. We're not the financers of it. So, uh, SpaceX and Tesla spreadsheet, people forget, they get very excited about operating income for the Optimus and operating income for the semitr. And my sheet over here indicates, you know, operating income from the semi-truck from FSD, it could grow $2.5 billion. Semi-truck could be 4.2. Uh, the Tesla bot, I've got 1.5 right here. It's a little, you know, whatever. Maybe maybe the semian bot will be flipped. It doesn't matter. The point is people don't realize all of those damn numbers are a fraction of the operating income that you get from selling freaking cars. Now, in fairness, the margins I have listed right here are elevated for 2030 fleet sales of the Cyber Cap. But if I drop those margins to 20%, let's say, it's still 27.5 billion dollars of operating income selling 4 million cars comes from selling cars. That's my forecast for this company is you have to sell cars. And the more you can sell these damn cars, the more money this company brings to the bottom line. And so I want to see vehicle deliveries go from four million or sorry 2 million a year to four. Now we still have some work to do because even at this pace we have now times four we're only sitting at roughly 2 million like 1.93 right? That's not great. We still have work to do but that's okay. It's coming and this is a sign that the pricing power is there. The bottoming is in process for this company. It's very exciting. So that's why my forecast for this suggests that uh at a present value of 375, let's say, if you could get to $824 per share by the end of 2030, this actually provides you a rate of return of about 20%. Which, you know, I'm a little biased, but I think my little startup is going to way outperform that. But duh, my startup isn't a $1.5 trillion company. It's a tiny little baby. >> [laughter] >> uh you would expect it to grow more. But the point is for a big company like this that's actually really good, you know, on an annual compounded rate if if they could pull some of these things off. Now, obviously, if you come up here and you discount this, you know, if I if let's say I I can only get uh or capture uh that's at 30%, I can only get to 24% margins on those vehicle deliveries. You know, we drop down to about a 16% compounded annual rate of return. Uh, so we could play with this. You know, I could go in here and I could leave it at 30 and I could take out the Tesla bot and I could take out the semi-truck and I still get to about an 18%. Uh, so there's there's some real potential uh on the stock. But, uh, the bottoming process now, if we go look at the technicals on it, I think the next stop really for Tesla on an Iran deal is getting to 414. So getting to an Iran deal on 414 is key. And if I look at Tesla's stock on a zoomed out basis, you can see we've been bleeding over here. Uh, sorry, this is this right here. We've been bleeding a little bit the last few days, but we've really stabilized above 347, which is great because briefly on the this was on Lioo's liquidation. That was a discount. That was a treat losing that purple line right here. But 347 has been very stable and we just bounced off of it again over here and the next line is 414 and I think we'll uh we'll we'll head on over there um soon enough. So I think this is very interesting and I think it's good for Tesla. It's a win for Tesla. The Bloomberg does argue that there are some risks of China and and I agree with this. China's been a big exporter for Tesla vehicles. You know, Shanghai did 66,000 vehicles in July alone, which, you know, on a quarter is almost 200,000 vehicles coming just from the Shanghai facility. Energy storage did miss, which I have to say, I was a little bit disappointed about energy storage missing. I tweeted a picture of me in front of the uh Tesla Power Wall because we just installed it. We just paid for it and got our permits and everything for it, but I think it's very cool. Uh I'll show you this. This says my home. It's not really my home. I should maybe I can like figure out how to re label it. But let's see what we've got cooking right now on the quote unquote virtual power plant in Kie. So, as you can see right now, this building is operating uh at 6.1 kW of usage. I've got 1.3 kW going into the power wall. So, a portion of the solar that's being generated right now. So, we're charging up the Power Wall again because we usually deploy the Power Wall when the rates are the highest between like 4 to 8:00 p.m. somewhere around there. But I I mean they they do a great job here with the app. I I really enjoy uh how they build this. There's so much I mean I hate to say it, but it's is way better than Nphas's app. I have uh and that's the thing like Nphase Enph's Enlighten app doesn't have the sex appeal of Tesla. Uh and and then now you could apparently plug your Cybert truck in to provide Cybertruck's battery backup for a house which is also kind of interesting. Uh I wonder if that could end up working because on my home I have the Nphase system so I get to compare. I mean ultimately it's all the same. Tesla's putting Chinese batteries in their battery packs and they're probably Chinese solar panels too. Uh, I have Q cells, which are German cells on this house that I'm in now. But we have a couple different arrays, which is really annoying. See, like they didn't combine my sites. So, on the Infasease app, I have like Kevin one and Kevin 2 for like home sites, even though it's on the same damn property because we added panels at one point. And it's just like the app's just it's just clunky. It's not as good. Uh, let me see. I don't think this shows anything proprietary. Whatever. So, this is um this is the Nphase app. And it's just it's just not as cool, right? Uh 41% charge, produce, discharge, whatever. It's hard for me to know what's live status do connecting to gateway. Oh my gosh, dude. It's so freaking slow. Look at this. Look at that crap. makes me want to vomit. So like, yeah, both of these plays, by the way, worth noting, they're interest rate sensitives, right? So if we are, if my call is correct that we are at peak yields, unable to connect. Of course, you're unable to connect, you dummy, freaking loser. [sighs] Anyway, if it's true, uh, and my call ends up being correct that we're at peak yields, Tesla is a beneficiary of that because my call is at 527 is peak yields. 527, we're at 526 right nowish. I think 527 is peak yields. If that's true, and we end up getting a uh what's it called? we end up getting a deal with Iran, then Tesla's going to skyrocket on that. And Nphase might as well. NFPace has like a small call option on it right now as a data center play, but it's mostly an interest rate sensitive play. So, it's a dog stock when rates are this high. Absolute trash stock with rates this high. But I want to be frank here, NFACE is a competitor on the energy space. I mean, Tesla even missed on their uh gigawatt expectations. They were expecting well they got 13.7 gawatts and they were expecting u or they missed by 14%. But you could almost make an argument that Nphas's bottoming process is over. Right? Look at this. They've come down hard and brutally through the interest rate hiking cycle. Let's just make these little gray cheeky lines over here. and the bottom's hit. And you could actually make the argument that since we're at peak yields here and we're still scraping along the bottom, you could make the argument that this is a dirt cheap company right now, $4.4 billion with a data center call option on converters, which I think they demo within the next month and a half. So part of me has balls to say if we get peak yields and Nphas's data center call option plays out, this is a dirt cheap competitor. Even though they're, you know, their old apps and stuff, they're nothing like the sex appeal of of Tesla. I mean Tesla's like a 10 out of 10, you know, Sarah Eisen level sex appeal. Then you got Nphase that's like a three. But it'll cook you a great freaking meal. [laughter] Uh so anyway, where were we? Uh oh, I think it's also worth mentioning that uh because I see a question here about should you get solar. I mean, I'll answer the question if you want. By the way, I do have an affiliate link with Tesla. And this video is not sponsored by Tesla. I'm just saying if you want the referral discounts, like I just buy like t-shirts or hats from Tesla or whatever. I got a bunch of hats over there when I get the referral credits. Uh, if you go to metkaven.com/tesla, that's me tke kevinvin.com/tesla. I know I got to I got to make the redirect for meet Kevin.com Tesla. Tesla. Maybe I'll I'll do that soon. I just don't really want to go into Cloudflare right now. So, I'll I'll just put that up for later. But anyway, met Kevin.com/tesla. If you type that in, there he is. Here, you get the uh referral benefits for either the cars or you get $400 off on solar panels or power wall. So, like you're better off using somebody's affiliate link than not because you have $400. But, um, but anyway, uh, somebody asked here, "Are solar panels worth it? I've been thinking about getting them, but I was told they don't produce enough to pay for themselves." So, we're getting about a 10% return on what we spend. So, we spent about $31,000 on the panels and the power walls. Uh, there's a limit, like there's a curve to where it doesn't make sense and then it does make sense. You have to do the math, but my calculation puts me at about a 10.1% return on investment from from this. And I think that's a good deal to make. Uh, and for most people that return you have to evaluate, but it's an after tax return, right? Because if you do it on your home, you're typically not writing off all the electricity on your home unless you're running a business out of there, right? And so for most people, you're saving after tax utility bills, which actually boosts your returns by another, you know, I'm not going to do the math right now, but 30 or 40% or whatever. So I think there's some added value with that as well. But uh but anyway, yeah, some things to think about. Now, as far as uh uh there's another Bloomberg piece that is bearish on Tesla that suggests that Tesla, Toyota, and Hyundai do face a risk of losing about 12% Tesla and 10% for Toyota market share in European volumes next year if Chinese add share by about 5%. Now, those are a lot of like numbers. Basically, a risk that you have to be aware of with Tesla is that yes, there is real Chinese competition. Does anybody really have competition for Tesla when it comes to full self-driving? No, not yet. It'll come, but we've been waiting for that to come for years, and it's still not here. So, Tesla's doing very good by staying in the lead. And uh yeah, Chinese risk is a risk. It's it's a risk in America, too. If the Chinese start selling cars in America, it's a poopy potential dupee. As far as the valuation for Tesla, it is still elevated. Keep in mind also Europe represents about 17% of uh Tesla's sales. So, you know, it's not like the biggest component of Tesla. It's not that big of a deal, but uh you know, Chinese competition if it comes to the United States, that's going to that's going to create some poopy dupies. But if we look at the PEG ratio for Tesla, it is it is elevated right now. So, we want to be clear about that. uh relative to other stocks, Tesla is pricey right now. Okay, Tesla right now at a buck 63 on earnings per share forward is trading for about 228x. That's pricey. If I divide that by forward growth expectations of 47, I still get about a 4.8 PEG ratio. Okay, I can literally go by broadcom boring stupid as designer photonix copper play broadcom and you know what I'm paying for broadcom that didn't work out very well I was going to say less than 08 you're paying like6 six, seven right now for Broadcom. So, just to put the valuation in perspective, okay, there are dirt cheap companies right now, including Nvidia, by the way. So, I've been very, very, very bullish on Nvidia. I think there are robotics play. I think they're a a vehicle economy play. There's so many more verticals than just Frontier chips, although those are the highest margin right now. But damn, bro. Holy moly, they make me excited. And uh they are dirt cheap as well. I mean they're they're at alltime highs today. Finally breaking out of that 227 line. But anyway, if you want more of these sort of projections the way I do them bottom lines for you, you really really ought to consider joining Reinvest One because you get everything that we have to offer in one lifetime package. And that package will be a recurring annual licensing fee in 2027. Unless you buy before the end of the year. If you get in in 2026, [music] you will not have to pay any kind of data fee, licensing fee, no nothing. You get in, you get all this is an incredible value. It's honestly probably way too cheap for what you get. Alpha membership, trade [music] alerts, the stocks uh terminal coming out at the end of the year. Uh, it's you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.