i like this stock

All right, we need to talk about Meta Stock and price targets for Meta Stock, especially in the age of MetaMuse. So, obviously, there's been a lot of hubbhub about Meta and Meta Muse starting on Monday, number one in the app store, 2 and a half million users. It's exploding. Influencers got bought out to talk about it, blah blah blah. I haven't been sponsored by Meta yet, but I would gladly take a sponsorship from Meta. Um, put that little balloon out there because I actually think the product's great. But let's be real. Meta's Wall Street estimates have not moved and its implied volatility is dirt cheap. Let me explain what both of those things mean in English. Wall Street tends to look at forecast growth rates for a company to determine whether or not a company has a fair value. Today, most of Wall Street uses what's called a discounted cash flow method where we look at the discounted cash flow over let's say the next 10 years based on growth compared to some form of discount rate. Then we come up with one some kind of value today. What are we willing to pay today? That tends to be assumption loaded. And so an easier way to do this, in my opinion, is you just take the Wall Street growth assumptions and you compare what you think the company's going to grow at compared to what they think and then you look for the change over time from Wall Street. Okay? So how that might look, let's draw that out on this little JP Morgan note, which we're going to go through on Meta. How that might look is if Wall Street thinks average growth for Meta is going to be 15%. What you want to track is after a catalyst event, does that rerate up? When Wall Street rerates a stock up and if they rerate it too high, that's bearish continuing. But that rerating up is really bullish. That's where the stock can run because now you get fund managers that are like, "Oh my gosh, this looks really cheap. I got to allocate." But you generally want to get in before that rerating. So I wanted to see if since the Metamuse launch, this stock has rerated yet. And the answer is it has not yet. These are the estimates. 34.85 of earnings per share puts this at about a 21 times earnings play. If you look at the forecast growth rates, Wall Street literally thinks this company's going to grow at 9% on earnings next year, followed by 23%, 17%, 12%. That works out to an average of about 15.7% per year. In my opinion, following this Metam Muse launch, plus what's going on with uh advertising, especially because of the AI battlefield for advertising, I think 15% for Meta is way too low. This is why I got into Meta and I've been shilling it on this channel, even saying that the stock was about to violently explode since around $566. Go look, type in Meet Kevin Meta stock. August 28th, Meta Stock is about to violently explode. Full detailed video on their financials and why I thought they were dirt cheap. They've exploded. Now, what's fascinating is since that explosion, we still don't have a rerating, which means that rerating, in my opinion, is still ahead of us, which actually, in my opinion, means the stock is, in a weird way, still cheap. Now, could you get volatility like buy the rumor, sell the news after the Meta event today and tomorrow and the keynote from Mark Zuckerberg and announcements for products and this, that, or whatever? Of course. Who cares, though? Short-term volatility. This is a great long-term buy in my opinion. Obviously not personalized financial advice for you. Uh and I'm exposed to the stock. So I, you know, always put the bias and the risks on the table. And there are risks. We'll talk about them. But that was the first thing I talked about was Wall Street Rating. The next thing that we need to understand is volatility. So volatility right now on a 5 and 10 day basis is really low for Meta. That's a very well, it's not really low. It's just below trend. And after this surge that they've seen in Metamuse, I would have expected options volatility to have gone up way higher. That actually means that options are cheap to buy right now. If you're bearish, you could buy puts. If you're bullish, you buy calls, right? But options are actually surprisingly cheap right now relative to uh its historic volatility is is below trend on a 5 and 10 day historic volatility, which I think is remarkable for for you know the catalyst that they're running into here. But now let's take a look at this JP Morgan piece. So JP Morgan puts this together about Meta and they have an $820 price target for Meta. Uh my price target is honestly a lot higher. If I put Meta at Meta's net margins, bringing 35% on average of every dollar to the bottom line. Uh 35% net margins puts this at around somewhere 2.69 peg stock and they had been doing buybacks until recently. They are burning cash in fairness uh from a cash flow point of view. So you don't have as much of that cash flow yield going for you anymore, which could be a benefit to the PEG ratio. But if I take a 2.69 PEG ratio times 3485 times what I think will end up being somewhere around 20% growth, this stock to me is worth $1,875. At that point, it is fully priced. And if it goes beyond that because all of a sudden it gets momentum like an init stock or a Dell, fine. That's that's when I would sell is if it gets euphoric past those levels. But until it bypasses like $2,000, I'm not even thinking about selling this puppy. So that's why I wrote $820 from JP Morgan sounds bearish. Uh they talk about the virality and buzz of Metam Muse. They also talk about how uh Meta is shipping quickly with a series of innovations within just two weeks of launch. Metamuse launched a beta for outbound calls for businesses. This is huge, by the way, because businesses who make money spend money because they want to grow. Businesses that make money spend money. And so, if you could sell things to businesses that are making money and help them make more money, you make more money. B2B makes money and they also charge more. But anyway, opened access for developers to build Muse connectors and came out with Muse for Mac. They also added shop pay for a gentic checkout. Now, I heard that and a lot of us did heard that Amazon blocked them. I think that's stupid. Amazon blocked uh uh the agent um Muse agents from shopping on Amazon because it's an advertising potential loss for them. But I think that's dumb and they should actually be leaning into Agentic AI using Amazon. You know, we expect later this year to launch what we're calling the Reinvest terminal, which uh you know, we want to compete with something like the Bloomberg terminal that costs $2,500 a month. And we think we can provide more value uh certainly more value per dollar, but at a substantially lower cost. So, my startup is really excited about what we're developing and what we're launching. But the point is, the reason I bring that up is because I would encourage agents to integrate with what we're building. In fact, I think the future is going to be you're going to end up having so many little agents doing stuff for you. You know, one agent's going to, you know, track your calories, one agent's going to track your fitness, one agent's going to track your doctor appointments and scheduling, when you got to get your colonoscopy again, you know, all this bull crap. I had my colonoscopy, by the way, and I'm 34. I say that as a total tangent because people are getting colon cancer a lot younger and so let this be a little PSA pun intended for the people who know what that means. Uh on get your colonoscopy. It's like you don't feel anything. It doesn't don't hurt. It's not a big deal. You know the concept of it is worse than the actual process. Uh but um little PSA, it's people are getting cancer a lot younger now and the colon cancer is a big killer especially for dudes. So uh it's happening younger and younger. So so do look into that. I'm good. Just worth noting. I asked him I'm like hey I told him before I I told him before I went under they're like putting the you know they're putting the injection in injections like doc when you're in there I I need you to tell me am I in the because it's gonna be one of these. It's guaranteed gonna be one of these doc. Am I going to be in the bottom 10% or the top 10%. For my age, right? [laughter] First thing I say, I open up my eyes, talk, was I in the top or bottom? And he's like, "Huh? What? Top or bottom 10%." He's like, "Kevin," and it was probably a stroke. Kevin, you were in the top 5%. Wait, what? How am I on talking about meta and I get on this distraction? Well, it's because people are going to have so many different agents. How are you going to keep track of all this crap? Literally, like, how do you track the crap? And you keep track of it with an orchestrator agent that coordinates all of your subscriptions. So, like, let's say you have an agent that's supposed to deliver you news, and you have subscriptions to the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and all of them. It's hard to go to all those sources to get all the information you want. So, you need something that consolidated somewhere. So these companies should actually be encouraging agents to, you know, let people use their subscriptions. I'm a big fan of that. And I think a company like, you know, Meta through Metamuse or maybe Grockbot, although Grockbot gets compared in a moment, I think these other competitors can do exactly that where if you enable connector apps, you make your application the go-to place and everybody else can win as well. You just have to integrate with these other apps. I think it's great and so I think Amazon's making a big mistake uh on that. But anyway, Amazon blacked access to Muse. We saw that Muse had already launched. Watermelon might come after Metaconnect. Fine. We talked about the valuation. Fine. Uh we talked about the subscriptions and the orchestrators. Let's look over here. Billions of people are likely to use agents for health, hobbies, finance, productive relation uh relationships, taking actions rather than simply answering questions. We expect Meta to prioritize adoption and engagement over monetization near-term with a clear line of sight to longerterm monetization, commission models, fees on bookings, re reservations, lead generation. I hate JP Morgan, but this was actually all a very fair breakdown on Meta. I actually think they're bearish on Meta, but I thought this was a very good breakdown. They even talk about how Meta might be able to profit off of agentto agent interactions, uh, which is great. You know, again, businessto business makes money. Now, the meta smart glasses then came up and we we had a conversation live about what meta smart glasses could do for you uh for on an agentic basis. So, I already have uh multiple different Meta glasses. I use them for different purposes. I will shill them here. Uh even though I'm not sponsored by Meta, I'm just I do like to shill things when when I think they're valuable for you. They are bulky. Obviously, it helps if you're, you know, distance blind like I am. For some reason, I'm really good at looking at the stock charts and things up close. Uh but, uh, but distance is a little harder. So, you know, uh, I had to wear these as a jet pilot. Obviously, my, uh, jet pilot, uh, FAA license has, uh, has a restriction on it for glasses. Do I have that here? Yeah, I actually do. Here it is. Nope. That's my boater card. That's no fun. Oh, that's for guns. I don't know where I put it. Oh, it's in my flight bag. Duh. But anyway, see, I get distracted on these things. So, it's obviously very useful if you have prescription lenses uh to wear these because you kind of have to wear lenses anyway. Uh but um you could get not only the everyday sort of glasses, but uh I use these guys for like skiing or even like water related activities. It's kind of cool. I like this because it has the camera in the middle, but uh it's especially great for capturing pictures of your family like skiing or doing fun things or your children. I got seven of those children, so there's a lot to document. But uh the smart glasses, they launched with this integrator for uh talking to Meta AI and just asking like, "Hey, what am I looking at?" or asking generic chat GPT style questions. And honestly, it was trash. It was like the worst LLM ever that they could have created with the meta glasses. So, I feel like that has really been an untapped market because their product was so bad when they started. And now there's this thought that well, what could agents do that the chat bots can't do uh when it comes to smart glasses? And there were actually a lot of cool ideas that we came up with. Now, this is just pure speculation, but here are some of the things that we wrote down and and some of these were kind of crude. Sorry. Uh, so first you see something in a store, your glasses automatically price compare for you and uh buy and ship to your home what you need. You get the cheapest thing online. If uh you're wearing your glasses and your glass glasses pick up that you're running low on milk or eggs or toilet paper, it can automatically order you more. Restocking autonomously. Honestly, probably useful for inventory management as well. walk you through mechanical stuff in real time if you're trying to repair something or you're doing construction or whatever. Like imagine you're a contractor and it's like, "Hey, you forgot to attach the ground wire to the outlet box or whatever, the receptacle box. IT'S YOU USED A METAL BOX AND YOU FORGOT THE GROUND WIRE. OH MY GOSH." FINE, I'LL USE A PLASTIC BOX. ANYWAY, LOCATION. I prefer metal personally. Uh location visual based uh reminders. Like I I thought this was a a useful one like, "Hey, it looks like you're right next to CVS. remember on your to-do list is picking up shaving cream from CVS cuz your wife needs it today. Whatever, right? Uh, and I thought that was useful. Agentic walkthroughs for travel or tours. This is already what it's supposed to be able to do, but it just sucks at uh augmented reality for real estate or construction. Virtual staging when you go look at a fixer upper, for example. Great. Walking or driving, heads up displays. Big fan of that. Uh, I was driving on the Autobon. I think I went my fastest speed ever on the Autobon uh the last time I was there and I was wearing the meta glasses was great. Uh I think I was I was in a BMW M series and I don't know I was probably like 147 miles an hour or something. I think that was the highest I got which on the autobond when nobody else is around it's not that big of a deal. But what was very interesting about it is when you're going that fast you don't want to look down. Uh and so a heads-up display would be very nice. I could actually see a heads-up display being very nice for aviation. Metaglasses already used a lot for aviation. Uh but uh some aircraft, really large aircraft or extremely expensive aircraft, actually have a heads-up display. Uh you kind of pull it down and you could overlay the runway through a heads-up display through the clouds in front of you, which which is really incredible. uh but uh you know for for smaller aircraft or different aircraft you don't have the luxury of a heads-up display. So the problem as as a pilot is you know sometimes you're flying and you're you're coming into land through the clouds and you're like man I can't see anything. That's fine. Then you look down at your instruments. Okay fine. But once you break out you now have to transition between looking at the runway. Am I too high, too low? Uh you know what factors do I have in front of me? What's going on with traffic? while at the same time is looking down below you at getting your instrument scan done. How's my speed? Am I within threshold? I'm adding my wind corrective factor. Like, that's hard. It's not just looking down at, oh, I'm at, you know, uh, 120 knots coming in for landing. It's, oh, well, I got to add my corrective factor of five or 10 knots or whatever. Okay. So, now you're glancing down while trying not to die 200 feet above the ground in a jet. And you're looking down going, "Okay, okay, got 120." No, it's actually 130. and and you're, you know, like a heads-up display and a practical purpose for pilots would be just great. So, big fan of the potential here. Uh, that's also why I like these smart glasses. And Meta has got like an 86% market share on that. I think it's great and I think it's coming. So, sort of that augmented realityishness. I did not get their last like augmented reality thing where the text messages could pop up because it I don't want more text messages popping up. It's very annoying. You I try to work. It's the last thing I want is more notifications popping up. But like an agent that could give me what I want when I need it is great. Then we got into some like really crude ones like automatic calorie counting. Uh and so you know you go sit down at McDonald's and go have your McDonald's and then all of a sudden you get an ad for Ozic that plays in your ear or like hey I just saw you in the mirror. Would you like Okay, I told you it was going to get crude. But it got even worse because then in the chat some people were recommending that the glasses could be useful for like helping walk people through better sexual experiences. Uh uh yeah, I'm just going to leave it at that. So people had a whole lot of creative ideas for versions of that's sort of a whole new definition of heads up display. But anyway, rep counter while working out. That that was interesting. Uh okay. Then uh then we also have flight and hotel bookings. So JP Morgan here wants you to know that you could use agents to uh uh b flights and hotels audit subscriptions. We talked about this on the software selloff issue yesterday and and subscription selloff issue yesterday. The consumer inertia basket we talked about obviously reminders, calendar basket, all that kind of stuff. This that's more generic. What I did think was interesting here is they kind of bagged on Grock a little bit specifically because Grock didn't have rated categories in routines, connected fitness or permissions where Meta was ranking high. Uh and part of this might be because Meta is coming and launching with a generous what they call well they called it generous JP Morgan did free tier whereas Grockbot doesn't and so that could potentially be a headwind. Mind you though, Grockbot or X has like 120 million. No, sorry. What was it? The latest stat. I just I just tweeted it and then the Bloomberg guy replied to me. He was like, "Here's the article." I'm like, "Man, you are a great employee. You are so freaking loyal to the boomers." But anyway, uh, Bloomberg just reported SpaceX's Grockbot usage up 24% over the last week, which is great, but you've got 400 million active users per month on X and you've got like 3.2 billion on Meta, right? Anyway, so I tweeted that and I said, "Nice job, Elon." And then Ed Lllo Low or whatever reports the Bloomberg article and quotes himself and I'm like, "Man, you are you are really dedicated." So, I liked his his tweet replies. I'm like, "Yeah, dedicated employee. Good for you. Such a shill for Bloomberg. But you know what I mean? If you're an employee somewhere, that's good. You know that that might end up helping him get a raise. You know, the people who are the biggest shills for the company deserve the biggest raises. Duh. It's a teamwork. [laughter] Uh but anyway, so uh overall, some of this is obviously speculative in what this could turn into and there will be competition for meta glasses. There will be competition for augmented reality. There will be competition for agentic AI. And so I don't want to get too carried away with, oh, this is the game changer alone for Meta. I just like Meta from an ad point of view. Uh, and to me, I think, you know, Meta wins from, as they write here, AIdriven ad ranking and recommendation gains along with more engagements and now a credible path to monetizing AIdriven capex. So, somebody here writes, "Glasses can be your home inspector." Yeah, probably in at at some point uh in in the future. Yeah. Yeah. Guys, add a PSA blood test to your yearly blood test. Help you track your prostate health. Says somebody in the chat. See, this is this is the PSA. Uh you're giving away the pun. [laughter] Uh anyway, so uh so yeah, man, that that gives us a little bit of color uh on Meta. I think that I'm going to just be transparent about this. Usually, I mean, the stock's up 3% intraday right now, which is great. Okay, I'm happy. That's great, but I'm going to be transparent about this. I kind of hope they tank after the event because if they tank after the event, I could go buy the dip before the mon the monetization actually shows up in their earnings. So, if people trade out of this because momentum slows down after the event, fine by me. I'm a buyer. I'm being a transparent shill about that. And if I lose money, then all I'll do is come back to you and play this. >> Oh, man. [music] Your boy Kevin just lost lots of money. Oh, that's okay. I am [music] with you. If >> you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. >> Why not advertise these [music] things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.