New lows coming?

Yeah. [music] [music] >> Warning, this video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest any capital unless you understand the risks and you are prepared to lose it all. All right, hello and welcome to Campbell Finance. I'm your boy Campbell. I'm on the wrong tab. [laughter] And yesterday I asked a bunch of people which one of these they wanted me to do for Saturday and over 50%of you said talk about this dip. So, that's what we're going to do today. I'm just going to start really quickly by doing gold and silver cuz we can shove those out the way and then we'll talk about the things that are actually probably alarming people. I don't think anyone that's watching this channel should be too alarmed with what's happening in gold right now. We've been expecting this for a while. Gold has now officially swept the lows, okay, as expected. So, that's part one complete. Now it's just a case of finding a buyable dip and that should be the reset in the 8-year cycle at the halfway marker. Same is true of silver, right? This swept the lows a little while ago and it looks like it's doing something approximating this. So, to be honest, from my own personal perspective and in my own personal opinion, pretty much anywhere between here and 40 is pennies on the dollar for where these markets should be going. So, I've been locked in paying attention to price here. I'm going to start to add some to the physical stack in gold and silver, get that put away, and then just keep that forever. Like I've been saying, I'm also going to be looking for confirmed cycles and pivots so I can start adding some short-term leverage trades and we'll be adding some miners and mining stocks in the level three member section in the long-term accounts. But as for this dip, I mean I I don't think we could say anyone on this channel didn't see this coming, right? We've been expecting this ever since we got the failed daily cycle that left translated up here and since then we've been just waiting for a nice sweep of the lows so that I can find a pivot, manage the risk around it, and then get long again. So, I think we should be pretty much reset here. Going to take probably a few weeks, I would suspect, but okay, we're more or less there. Just got to get the rest of these to sweep their lows as well, and then it should be time to go. Pretty nice trend line across all of these. They've all got a very similar structure, haven't they? So, should get some kind of capitulation move, and then break out, and it should be time to rock and roll. Another easy to deal with idea on this channel is TLT in the bond market. Okay, so far TLT is doing what we thought it would do. It had that capitulative low. It is doing its best to confirm a trend flip here. This is a trend filter cycle trend filter. It's working on flipping it to green. Some sort of pullback I would not surprise me, okay? But, I'm looking to get back inside of this blue box, and then say for sure that that indeed is the 7 and 1/2 year cycle, and it's a new 7 and 1/2 year cycle in bonds ahead. Not many people are bullish bonds here, but as it stands right now, those people don't have any credibility in their argument at the moment. Things need to rapidly reverse. We need to sweep this low. Otherwise, the bond market has just begun a new bull cycle. With that said, this has also been really good to hold in the longer-term account for smoothing volatility. I was noticing this the other day. The short-term account has been suffering a bit, as it does during times of failed cycles and volatility, but the long-term account has been holding up surprisingly well. And it's because I publicly allocated 20%of my liquid portfolio to TLT, and it's just been slurping the dividends, okay? And it's been smoothing the volatility. So, it's working well. It's doing what it's intended to do, and I suspect, although there might be a bit of chop in the next few sessions, I have to start to really push higher from here. Another reason the longer-term account has been doing all right is because the Russell 2K exposure we added here initially, right? And then we added again on pretty much every dip. If I get an up-to-date look at the chart, every one of these yellow squiggles is an add. So, this one, not the best one, okay? But, this one was also the only one that was not contrarian at the time, and we just continued to push here. So, at the moment, I would say it looks okay to me, and I think this is going to continue higher. I know that is not really consensus in the market, and a lot of people say, "Yo, what about the Nasdaq?" We'll do all of that in a minute, but I'm just getting the the easy bits out of the way first, okay? So, as a quick review, gold, I think we all expected this. Happy days. He's looking for a buy the dip opportunity. Bonds, very contrarian trade, but can't say we didn't really expect this, and so far so good. And the Russell 2K has not really been a popular trade either. Most people have been saying breadth is really thin and it has been for a lot of the bull run since the '22 lows, but as it stands, this just keeps giving us more and more places to add. And apart from this one, which was not really a buy the fear moment, all these other ones are buying the fear have resolved to higher prices. So, that bit should be nice and straightforward, I think. The short-term action looks pretty good. And again, this is boosting the overall performance of the longer-term account. Now, I know we got a bit of a pullback here, but when we zoom in, does it really look like anything is out of the ordinary here? I don't think so. It just looks like breakout retest possible resumption here. Could we do some more chopping in the meantime? Yes, of course, it's a market. Anything and everything is on the table, but it just looks to me like we're ready to continue a new leg higher. It looks to me like we've reset the weekly cycle for the Russell and for the Dow Jones, I might add. And on the weekly time frame, as you can see right here, it's not looking too bad, is it? It's really not looking too bad at all. Weekly confirmation about to cross bullish at the bottom, comfortably above the cycle trend filter, which is green, not red. Now, I know a lot of people are going to say, "Well, what about this? What happened to this? Is this invalidated?" And as ever, my answer is one day at a time. Now, if you want to invalidate it, feel free. People have invalidated this weeks ago. They've invalidated it plenty of times in the past. You know, back here we deviated away quite a bit, then we deviated away quite a bit at the bottom. People were very loud in here to say that it was wrong and I was silly for buying the dip, and they were saying things like, "Well, you've been suspecting we might do something like this for a while, and now it's finally happened. You're just buying more." But again, buying the fear seemed to work out pretty well. We ended up shoving this over a bit, and I said, there you go, we just kind of done this. And then we tracked for a while. Again, we deviated away a bunch of times. Here, a lot of people said, "Oh, it's completely broken, right?" But again, we just added on fear. It's easy to say buy the blood or buy the fear or whatever the old adage is, but it's a lot harder to do it in practice. But again, we did it, and again, it worked out for us. And then we kind of had to chop this thing around plenty of times. And now we're in a situation where we've got a lot of people saying this is wrong, this is invalidated, and it might be, okay? But maybe we just have to shove this thing over a bit or squeeze it down or something like that. But remember, the invalidation for this has always been clear, and that is trendline breakdowns and failed daily cycles. But at the moment, this is still another higher low. So, as always, you do you. If you want to invalidate it, feel free. But, if it ends up doing something akin to this, right, and then turning around and then moving higher, and I can just drag this whole thing over to here, you know, that's good enough for me. But, as ever, to each their own, you do you. And if we zoom in and take a look here at this dip, I know there's a lot of panic, I know there's a lot of fear and uncertainty, but the absolute matter of fact is, as of Friday's close, we're still only about 3.3%off of the highs. Getting this bearish and this fearful and this nervous over a 3.3%pullback is kind of silly, in my opinion. I mean, this pullback right here was 5 or so percent. This one back here was a 10% correction. Even this right here was 5 and 1/2%, right? This was about 20, I think, somewhere in that neighborhood. And you don't have to go back very far in time to find 5-ish percent pullbacks, right? They happen very routinely. That was the yen carry trade, which was a 10% correction. There's another 6-ish percent one. This stuff happens all the time. And what I find interesting at the moment is just how bearish things have gotten, 3%from the highs. Especially because a lot of people in this space are primarily crypto people. So, they should be much more used to volatility. They should be able to stomach swings, right? It's kind of weird, cuz wait, I I might be wrong about this, but I see a bunch of people that are happy to hold an altcoin down 80 or 90%because they're part of the community or they believe one day it's going to go back up to new highs and beyond. But, then 3%from the all-time highs, they're ready to look at something like this and say it's bananas, right? [laughter] It It's a weird place to be, but as far as I'm concerned, this is nothing that makes me think, "Oh dear, this is really bad." And we're very near a new daily cycle low. Let's say we just do a bit more downside daily cycle low, so long as we just reload this squiggle and end up at new highs. By the rules of my own system, we're allowed to encompass the lowest low wick with a trend line, okay? And it's just the same thing that we've been getting away with countless times here. And it's funny that we have these exact same conversations at every local top. And at some point, it will be the top, and we will have to decline into a 4-year low. We already know we're overdue. We already know we're extremely right translated. At some point, we'll have to do that. But, at the moment, the system's not really telling me not to buy the dip here. Now, I can further evidence this with high yield credit. So long as this thing continues down in the week, then it will literally be a bottom signal market. We will have found a new low, and we should be expecting new highs because that's what happens every time we get one of these pops, okay, that resolves lower and then ranges. Every single one of these, including these, was a the Oh, A really nice bird just flew into my office window. You good, bro? Mate, I'll leave him there for a minute, see if he recovers. Got to remember he's there, make sure the dog doesn't get him. Sorry about that. Anyway, I don't even know how much the mic would pick that up. Um, buy the dip, right? Every one of these is buy the dip. Just buy the dip. So, so long as this resolves down, then it only seems reasonable to me to expect new highs here. Call me crazy, okay, but that's just what it looks like at the moment. And of course, the inverse is true. If this resumes up here, then we'll get failed cycles, and we'll say, "Okay, time to head for the 4-year cycle low." And then we expect sentiment to be very negative. We expect to be able to get down here and treat it like we did with the other dips, okay? We got a good track record of doing that. So, happy days, right? Then we should get some good times ahead. So, for now though, I think this is what we're going to get, and I think therefore, we're going to get another one of these yellow squiggles play out. Also, the semiconductors, are they doing anything that we didn't expect them to do, right? They've swept now, okay? Possibly looking for higher prices. There's the sweep of the lows, and so long as we turn around soon, then again, can't really say anything crazy has happened yet, in my humble opinion. Bitcoin on the other hand, and Ethereum, are looking like, to be honest, they've got left translated weekly cycles that are soon to fail. That's just what they're looking like. We had these two ideas, and we were like, "Okay, we got our invalidation here. It's time to pivot to bullish, right? We'll look for this, a higher low pullback and go." That is still on the table, but it could always be this horrible expanded flat that just just ruins everyone, right? It's going to punish all the people that were toxic during here, and ironically, when we get down here, maybe there's a big Binance hack or Binance fails. There'll be some sort of narrative, right? And then people go, "Oh, well, that would have been the lows if Binance didn't blow up." Or whatever the narrative is. But ultimately, it would just be cycles doing cycle things. At the same time, Ethereum, as Andrew's pointing out here, looks a lot like it is setting up for failing the monthly cycle pivot from April 25. Now, I've been suggesting we may even see it fail the 4-year cycle like this. Maybe that's too bearish. But at the moment, it certainly looks like it's not beyond the realm of possibility to at least get down and sweep this pivot. Okay, get one final lower low in and then turn around. And then it would be hilarious cuz we'd actually end up catching this squigglin' up, which a lot of people said is impossible. But for an updated look at this chart, I still haven't finished transferring my charts across. I don't think people realize like it's not actually the wildest call of all time. Like you have got multiple failed daily cycles now, left translation and failure in the most recent daily cycle. If it could turn around this week and print new highs, then we can say for sure this is done. And it for sure this is not happening. But if we end up in the next couple of cycles down here somewhere, it's over. We're going to sweep the lows, and all the bulls are wrong, and now it's just the exact same setup that we've seen in gold, right? Where they prematurely dunked on people here instead of actually longing the lows and enjoying the gains, and then now they're getting humbled by the market. I've been saying the same things over and again. But in everything we've covered beforehand, there's like no technical damage, right? There's no failed cycles. The sentiment's really bearish. There's no alarm signals firing. In fact, we're almost getting buy the dip signals firing. Okay, pending a move lower in the high yield this week. The semis have done the expanding flat pattern. The whole thing just looks a bit to me like sentiment is on the wrong side of the trade here, and new highs are probably ahead in the stocks, the equities, etc. But we kind of have, as far as I can tell, the opposite scenario in crypto. In crypto, we've got this weird situation where everyone's just been super bullish. But have you heard any bull posting lately? No. Why? Cuz they can see as well, right? They're not blind. They know what this is, and this is not looking good, is it? And so it is possible we could save this, and we get a little pump, and then we roll over and get the higher low and go. That's entirely possible, but the reality of the situation is that was the time to do it. We had the invalidation, whilst being aware it could be an expanded pattern. We've come down here, left translated and failed already. Now it's only reasonable to expect continued downside for another month and a half. It's quite a long time if you think about it. Especially because all of this happens in just a couple of weeks. So if we continue like this and then we get one of these kind of capitulative moves with the inversion, we could very easily sweep all the lows here. And we've just seen this exact setup in the precious metals. So for me personally, okay, in terms of the dip in the volatility, I don't really see anything to be too concerned about. The stocks to me still look like they're setting up a daily cycle low in the new in the near future and then it should be able to move to new highs. As I've said, I forgot to do the Qs. We'll do the Qs now. And yes, this is a big downward move. Yes, this is more volatile, but it's still a higher low for now, okay? So as long as it can turn around inside of the window in the next few sessions and move to new highs, then it would just look suspiciously like another one of these normal cycles. Higher highs and higher lows all around. And then whilst this does look significantly worse than say the spy or the Dow Jones, okay, which looks really good, the Russell looks really good as well. What are we going to say here that tech is going to get obliterated, the spy, the Dow and IWM are all going to do fine? I don't think so. I just think the Qs have had a nice correction here. 10%is done. Closed the week just under 10%from the Qs from the last highs. And remember this is the kind of thing that happens over and over again, right? How often do we see these types of corrections? Plenty of times. This is not new. What's new is how nervous the sentiment is for investors. So in terms of the stocks and the semis, I think it's okay. It could obviously change and it could change quickly, but it hasn't changed yet. So that's nice and straightforward. What else is nice and straightforward? The precious metals. They're just doing exactly what we thought they would do and soon should yield a nice buying opportunity. So that's good. Bitcoin is setting up to do Bitcoin things and just make everyone look like a clown, aren't they? Like that that's what it seems to be doing. So it could save itself any day now. Hopefully we can be bullish and look for higher prices, but you just have to be honest with yourself, okay? Range breaks normally look something like this. They leave behind a big base, we get long, and then we move higher. Does this look like a type three breakout hard retest to you? It doesn't, does it? It looks like a failed breakout. It looks like a trap. Unless next week's weekly candle is big and green and up here, this is a failed range break attempt. And we just have to have an honest conversation with ourselves about what's going on here. It's also true, by the way, I'm going to go through most of these with the level three members in a bit. Here's Coinbase. Look, it's seeking the four-year cycle now. We've been talking about this for ages. We'd get here, probably sweep the lows, have a dive off the edge of a cliff, and then that's your four-year cycle low. That's the spot to allocate. All it's missing is one or two weekly candles down here, and we've done it. We've got a four-year cycle low. Time to smash buy for me in my long-term account. Time to wait for a confirmed uptrend, supplement it with short-term leverage trades. This is exactly what we did at the last four-year cycle low. MSDR's got a bit more complexity in its structure. May out an inverse head and shoulders. I'm pretty open to that, okay? Which is why I've already started nibbling. I've got one starter tranche, nowhere near the amount of allocation I want to get to it. I want to see if it builds a shoulder out and then pushes higher. If so, we'll go grab the rest. Or if it sweeps the low, if so, we'll grab the rest, okay? It's just about taking my time. There's no rush here. I just want to see a bottom process form. Once we know we've got a bottom, once we're inside that window for the low, then I'll add more. What about Riot? Well, failed weekly cycle. Diving for a four-year cycle low, okay? It would be pretty atypical to do this in a straight line from here. Normally you'd expect maybe a bit of a countertrend bounce, and then down into the low, and then a bit of basing, and then off we go. But again, look at what's happening here. We've been calling for this for ages, and we're now right about there, okay? So, I'm embracing this dip, but this is definitely a failed weekly cycle, okay? Most of these crypto and AI type stocks have failed weekly cycles, okay? In fact, Marathon is about to sweep this one from back in February. So, here's the most recent weekly cycle, which has left translated failed. Notice how early it is in this weekly cycle as well. Failure occurred week eight, and we're They're on week 10. There's a lot of weeks left in this weekly cycle. Remember, on average, we're looking at 26-ish weeks for these sorts of assets. So, there's still three or four months ahead here for these to potentially go and base out and find lows. And we're really close to sweeping the lows down here, which I think would make a lot of sense. IREN is another one. Look, failed weekly cycles. These are all seeking four-year cycles. Same as True Wolf, left translated and failed weekly cycles seeking four-year cycles. We could do this all day, probably. Again, here's Hive, right? Left translated failed weekly cycles. All it's got left to do is sweep the rest of the lows into the timing window, and then we've finally arrived at the moment where we can get the allocation and expect a new bull market. So, I want to embrace this as much as possible. But again, to be super clear here, we've got this strange situation where the equity markets look bullish, but everything crypto-related is failing weekly cycles and seeking four-year cycle lows. And we've got that at the same time as Bitcoin and ETH have also started to left translate and failed daily cycles and are very early in their weekly cycles. You know, this is a week 13 high. We're currently on week 17. We've got potentially another 10, 12, 14 weeks of decline ahead here for the crypto market before we can find the next weekly cycle low. Now, it doesn't mean we have to sweep the lows and print new four-year cycle lows at new lows below the current lows. Doesn't mean that, but it kind of implies that is a serious possibility now. Okay, bulls had their chance here, and the daily cycle left translated and failed, which means the weekly cycle left translated, which means we are also seeking four-year lows, just like we can see in the higher beta assets. ETH as well. Like, it's not going to take much to get back down here, is it? Right? Little bounce to lure them in, inverse sweep the lows, everyone's wrecked, four-year cycle low resets. That's all I'm saying. I'm just saying it looks like that. Now, again, it doesn't really change the plan. It just means we have to have a degree of flexibility. But again, if you've been following the channel for any length of time at all, I said this back here. I said, "Be careful what you wish for, because if that is an early low, then we're going to have lots of possible paths, loads to entertain, and we won't be able to rule all of them out until we're well through that timing window, which is a long time away. And now here we are, and everyone's probably going,"Oh, I just have no idea what's going to happen."Right? And welcome to the pain of cycles when they do weird things, which they don't do that often. More often than not they behave, but this is what we've got at the moment. We don't get to choose, right? And I think you have to be crazy to look at this chart right here and say,"Yeah, super bullish. This comes next."That's just not what it looks like to me at the moment. It looks like it's got to do a lot more chopping and digestion based on the cycles, ultimately have some sort of capitulation event, and then we can talk about starting a new bull market. So, I'd say the bulls probably have till the end of this week coming to save this. Otherwise, it's probably also seeking for your lows like the higher beta assets. Unlike the spy, which is only 3% off the highs, and everyone's being a nervous Nellie about it, right? Kind of a weird thing. Gold and silver doing their thing as we said. And so, other than that, TLT's moving the volatility. TLT's looking pretty good, isn't it? We're very nearly back inside the blue box. Once we're back inside there, that's it. That's the new 7 and 1/2 year cycle upon us. It occurred on textbook bearish sentiment, media attention, and right in the middle of the window. So, for people that are like,"Oh, cycles don't work or whatever."Well, one, it looks like they're probably going to work out this time, okay? Unless bulls can save Bitcoin and ETH this week. And two, here's an example of just how they look when they do work. So, that is about as much detail as I could possibly give. I remain pretty bullish until we see failed cycles in the stocks and the I remain excited about getting hold of some precious metal exposure, and I remain cautiously optimistic for Bitcoin and Ethereum. To be honest, I kind of want new lows just because I know the performance for the next few years will be significantly higher if we get new lows, and the setup will be easy to identify, so I don't have to do too much DCA-ing in and around the lows. I can just kind of buy the assets I want to buy in one or two clips, and then look for new uptrends. And if the uptrends start to push, then we can just add supplemental trades in the short-term account as we did last time. What I do observe at the moment is that the sentiment is bearish in the stocks, and there's no real technical damage and the sentiment is bullish in the crypto space during huge areas of technical damage and failed breakouts. So, I think the market is offside here and as ever we'll just take it one day at a time. If you're a level three member, look out for the members only video I'm about to post for you guys. And until next time, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. >> Camel Finance, he's the man to [singing] see. Rocking the [music] markets with his contrarian streak. Trades like a pro, no fear, [music and singing] no shame. Sticking to his guns in this money game. He's a badass. [music] Oh, yes, indeed. Camel Finance got the market's [music] key. Taking a stormy on a bumpy ride. Casting those emotions