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S&P At Record Highs While Semis Sit 15% Below — The Decoupling

S&P At Record Highs While Semis Sit 15% Below — The Decoupling

Verified Investing
Analyzed Watch on YouTube Requested On
Video return
+0.04%
Calls
3
Buy / Sell
3 0
Published

Recommendations

Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.

  1. 01 ORCL NYSE BUY +0.09%
    Entry $150.15 11 Sep 2026
    Current $150.28 11 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.13
    vs. index +0.1% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (483s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …rt there. Um, there's also a gap fill here. So, kind of a two-factor trade of support right here, especially on Monday if Oracle continues to fall as it went negative. But for the long term, I really love basically anywhere in this region. Anywhere between 135 or lower, I think is a great buying opportunity potentially for Oracle. Oracle had a great surge from its lows at 114, about a 40% surge, had a pullback, pushing back up. So, this a reversal down closer to this 135 to 130 region would be massive on the stock. And finally, OKLO absolutely falling. Um, it did la…

    Anywhere between 135 or lower, I think is a great buying opportunity potentially for Oracle.

    AI-extracted context The other big player today reporting earnings, Oracle, man, Oracle so beaten up, so far away from its highs like a year ago. 56% down from its recent highs in June down about 40% heading into earnings. They're they're they were expected to do well and they absolutely crushed it, right? Beating EPS by 10% um beating revenue uh having great guidance moving forward. Everything was pointing up for uh for Oracle. But if we take a look here, it's not as good as it seems, right? Stock has actually gone flat. And what I'm actually watching is a key level right here. This ups sloping trend line. If we can come down into that, I anticipate support there. Um, there's also a gap fill here. So, kind of a two-factor trade of support right here, especially on Monday if Oracle continues to fall as it went negative. But for the long term, I really love basically anywhere in this region. Anywhere between 135 or lower, I think is a great buying opportunity potentially for Oracle.

  2. 02 OKLO NYSE BUY +0.00%
    Entry $36.22 11 Sep 2026
    Current $36.22 11 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.00
    vs. index +0.0% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (513s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …ge, had a pullback, pushing back up. So, this a reversal down closer to this 135 to 130 region would be massive on the stock. And finally, OKLO absolutely falling. Um, it did launch a 1 billion share sale program causing the stock to fall. Massive buying opportunity for support down here at 3661. Looks like the stock got close today, right? Got very, very close for that potential bounce. Looks like it got as close to 36.83 at about a 1 and a.5% bounce. But taking a look at the chart, next level of support, you're looking, you know,…

    Massive buying opportunity for support down here at 3661.

    AI-extracted context And finally, OKLO absolutely falling. Um, it did launch a 1 billion share sale program causing the stock to fall. Massive buying opportunity for support down here at 3661. Looks like the stock got close today, right? Got very, very close for that potential bounce. Looks like it got as close to 36.83 at about a 1 and a.5% bounce. But taking a look at the chart, next level of support, you're looking, you know, back in May of last year for support levels, right? So certainly a massive fall should this level break close to 28 to $20 is my buy level for maybe a longer term swing trade.

  3. 03 OKLO NYSE BUY +0.00%
    Entry $36.22 11 Sep 2026
    Current $36.22 11 Sep 2026
    Result +$0.00
    vs. index +0.0% SPY +0.0% over the same days

    Cite this call Watch source segment (541s) *

    Surrounding source transcript
    …it got as close to 36.83 at about a 1 and a.5% bounce. But taking a look at the chart, next level of support, you're looking, you know, back in May of last year for support levels, right? So certainly a massive fall should this level break close to 28 to $20 is my buy level for maybe a longer term swing trade. All right, with that being said, that's all I have for you today. Thank you guys so much for tuning in. Please don't forget to like this video, comment, and I'll see you in the next one. Bye guys.

    close to 28 to $20 is my buy level for maybe a longer term swing trade.

    AI-extracted context And finally, OKLO absolutely falling. Um, it did launch a 1 billion share sale program causing the stock to fall. Massive buying opportunity for support down here at 3661. Looks like the stock got close today, right? Got very, very close for that potential bounce. Looks like it got as close to 36.83 at about a 1 and a.5% bounce. But taking a look at the chart, next level of support, you're looking, you know, back in May of last year for support levels, right? So certainly a massive fall should this level break close to 28 to $20 is my buy level for maybe a longer term swing trade.

Full Transcript
Hey guys, Lton here with Verified Investing back with another market movers. I hope you guys are having a great Friday at the end of this nice holiday week. We have a very exciting episode of ProCharts today talking about the market's biggest movers today. Couple things to note, guys, before I go any further. Please like this video and subscribe to the Verified Investing YouTube channel. It certainly helps us continue to make free content just like this and it lets the algorithms know that you want to see more things just like this from us as well. That being said, let's hop into it, shall we? Let's start with the S&P. Now, the S&P is currently up about 1%, filling the gap created from Tuesday's price action. This is pretty good for the markets as we're beginning to potentially try and test previous all-time highs on the S&P. What am I watching? I'm watching that double top 779 37, the key level of resistance. But something I really want to highlight there is we're starting to create kind of a beautiful look at this downs sloping parallel channel. Um you can even consider this a bull flag because we had this nice move up followed by this downward sideways um downward sideways consolidation favoring a move to the upside. Now while this is a bullish pattern, it doesn't necessarily mean that it needs to play out. Now, why is that? Well, the reason why is because bullish patterns at the highs of the charts have a lower um lower likelihood of playing out compared to if they were at the bottom of the charts, right? And while this is potentially bullish, it's only bullish if we can break above this down sloping parallel channel, right? um it stocks can continue in a downtrend for a significant portion of time. So I wouldn't go all in saying this is going up for sure. But just something to keep in mind on the Q's also having a great day today. Up about 1.1% passing that gap fill from Wednesday, right? And while we're testing all-time highs on the S&P, it's not the case on the keys. And I talk about this so much, but the decoupling between the S&P and the Q's where the S&P is pushing towards new all-time highs. Q's are kind of stuck down here um well off down about 4% from their previous highs. But that doesn't mean that you know that there's no hope for the Q's where I'm looking at this potential break of this downs sloping trend line. Let's say the the Q's begin to push up over this. We could be looking at a breakout scenario, potential entries here or potentially on a retrace back and looking for another move higher here on the Q. So, that's going to be something um that I'm going to be watching next week. Right on the SMH, SMH comp uh performing extremely well compared to the Q's and the S&P up around 2%, guys. Not quite filled that gap from Wednesday, right? But a 2% move up uh is not too shabby for uh the semiconductor industry, right? And speaking of downs sloping trend lines, we have this really, really key downstoping trend line that we just broke above today. You can see we've tested it here, here, here, broke above it, right? Actually opened up above it, came back down, right? Went below, retested it, and now are looking to potentially break above it. We want to see confirmation above basically above this down sloping trend line and above 580 and potentially right we can see a move higher closer to that $600 610 625 region on the SMH and I've said this for a while right part of the reason the S&P and the Q's kind of decoupled is the semiconductor industry isn't as hot as it once was right you can you can definitely see that in the charts right the Q's 4% from all-time highs. The uh S&P right there and the SMH down about 15%. 15% for you know what was definitely thought of to be the most you know uh important industry or sector rather in the stock market. Right? So, it's going to be interesting to see if the SMH can hold this level, close above, and continue to push higher closer to the 600ish level, especially at this high pivot here from the 17th of August. This for me is the make or break it um area. If we can get above there, you know, I'm I really think it can go significantly higher, but that's going to be a huge test for the SMH. Now, the next one I want to talk about is Adobe. Very interesting chart, right? Taking a look purely at the chart, you could say, well, Lton, this definitely favored a move lower on Adobe Brook. This beautiful ups sloping trend line continued to fall. Where would support be? Well, the stock initially opened down off of earnings, right? We can see that what happened. Well, they double beat they beat earnings and beat revenue expectations. But one thing that they unfortunately didn't do was raise guidance and and as a result of uh poor guidance or lowered guidance rather the stock kind of fell into the open right but you can see that investors weren't as worried and the stock has fully recovered. The key level that I liked was this gap fill down here around 225. An additional one here around 23775. And it actually, if we take a look at the extended trading hours, that's actually where the stock went. Yes. Uh this morning around 8:00 hitting that gap fill and having a beautiful bounce. Let's see that bounce if I can measure this. Yeah, it's getting like a five and a half percent bounce from that key gap fill level. If it continues to fall 225, I'd consider an entry long for a longerterm play, but ultimately we'll have to see what the stock ends up doing. The other big player today reporting earnings, Oracle, man, Oracle so beaten up, so far away from its highs like a year ago. 56% down from its recent highs in June down about 40% heading into earnings. They're they're they were expected to do well and they absolutely crushed it, right? Beating EPS by 10% um beating revenue uh having great guidance moving forward. Everything was pointing up for uh for Oracle. But if we take a look here, it's not as good as it seems, right? Stock has actually gone flat. And what I'm actually watching is a key level right here. This ups sloping trend line. If we can come down into that, I anticipate support there. Um, there's also a gap fill here. So, kind of a two-factor trade of support right here, especially on Monday if Oracle continues to fall as it went negative. But for the long term, I really love basically anywhere in this region. Anywhere between 135 or lower, I think is a great buying opportunity potentially for Oracle. Oracle had a great surge from its lows at 114, about a 40% surge, had a pullback, pushing back up. So, this a reversal down closer to this 135 to 130 region would be massive on the stock. And finally, OKLO absolutely falling. Um, it did launch a 1 billion share sale program causing the stock to fall. Massive buying opportunity for support down here at 3661. Looks like the stock got close today, right? Got very, very close for that potential bounce. Looks like it got as close to 36.83 at about a 1 and a.5% bounce. But taking a look at the chart, next level of support, you're looking, you know, back in May of last year for support levels, right? So certainly a massive fall should this level break close to 28 to $20 is my buy level for maybe a longer term swing trade. All right, with that being said, that's all I have for you today. Thank you guys so much for tuning in. Please don't forget to like this video, comment, and I'll see you in the next one. Bye guys.

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