Stock Market CRASHING! Why I'm Buying MORE!📉

Well, guys, thanks to Google, stocks are getting completely nailed today and we have to talk not only about Google, but we have to break down Microsoft, a couple other companies, and overall where my head's at right now as I just bought more Google. Yes, you heard that right. So, guys, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe, join the Patreon if you want to be a part of the community, see my trades, portfolio updates, all that's linked down below in the comments and the bio, or go to stockserfast.com/patreon. And now, cheers, take a sip of your coffee, let's dive into it. And believe it or not, guys, not every index is down. The Russell's actually up 1 and a quarter percent today, very good day for the small caps as the S&P's not down much either, same with the Dow, they're each down just over a quarter percent as the Q's, for obvious reasons, are down over 1.2% thanks to Google, which is right now down 11 and a half percent, one of the worst days in years uh for Google stock. And it closed at 325 yesterday, and now we're all the way down to 285. We actually hit 277 um earlier in the session. And do you guys remember the descending triangle that we called out, that we talked about? That's completely playing out now. Uh go figure, right? We saw it on the charts, the writing was on the wall, and it's completely playing out. I'm not surprised, right? So, I did nibble a little bit of Google in the after hours yesterday at 291.50. Um it was just a small buy. I'm looking to buy even more, but I'm being patient. Have you guys heard of that three-day rule? Um you know, I might have violated a little bit uh buying uh Google on the after market, but usually when a stock sees a sudden sell-off after earnings, uh you want to give it a couple days to cool off, kind of have, you know, investors digest the earnings, and have it find new support, and then you want to start adding more. But, hey, I got a little excited. I added some yesterday, just a little nibble, and I'm looking to buy even more um in the coming days here. Maybe tomorrow, maybe come Monday. Uh but, overall, Google is getting nailed, and I'm sure you guys know uh why at this point, why it's getting hit. It's all about free cash flow, and in this case, negative free cash flow. Um they reported, let's talk about these numbers $127.58 billion of revenue. That was up 25% year-on-year, which is good, but it missed the estimate of $128.2 billion, and GAAP EPS was $2.12, which also missed the $3.02 estimate. Um and if you guys didn't know, investment losses reduced EPS by $0.55 roughly. But, still, even without those investment losses, they still would have missed the estimate. So, they missed revenue and EPS. Um operating margin, or income, excuse me, also missed. It came in at $40.58 billion. I'm pretty sure the the estimate was like $43 billion, something like that, give or take. That was up 30%, pretty good, as operating margin was around 32%, and search revenue, I think, slightly missed, or came right in line. Uh that was at $63.35 billion, up 12%. YouTube ad revenue, I know, missed for sure, $11.2 billion uh versus $11.4. That was up 9%. Google Cloud crushed it. Uh that was up 103% year-over-year. It came in at $30.7 billion versus the $28.8 billion. Um you know, cloud operating profit was at, let's see, $11.12 billion. Margin expanded to 60, or 36, excuse me, uh 0.2%. It was up 209% year-over-year. And again, what is going on here is or what's causing the stock to go down is the fact that free cash flow was negative $9 and quarterly CapEx did come in soft or not soft but it came in under the estimate it came in at 51 billion the estimate was 55 billion so I guess that's good but free cash flow is negative and their spending outlook remains for 2026 at 195 to 205 billion dollars with another significant increase expected in 2027 so the market yeah I mean the market's a bit disappointed on the fact that they double missed all right they missed YouTube ads they missed search revenue they missed you know operating income a lot of misses for Google not a great quarter not not a terrible quarter but not a great quarter the market cares about that but not you know not as much as the fact that we're seeing more spending more spending in 2027 huge increase in CapEx expected and again we're already at negative free cash flow so more negative free cash flow is coming down the pipeline and the market hates that but if you're able to look past the short term if you believe okay Google is going to be able to monetize all this AI all this spend you know we're seeing it with SpaceX other companies you know if you can look two to three to four years down the line I genuinely think this is a buying opportunity if you think they're going to be able to monetize all this CapEx and you can see it if you can't see it and you think Google is going to just bleed money you know be negative free cash flow for a while with no return okay maybe it's not the stock for you but for me I believe in Google I'm buying more so I added more Google and now the million-dollar question is guys what's coming for Amazon right we got Amazon's earnings in the after market and this stock took a hit. It's already [clears throat] down 3%, um, and it was down more earlier, uh, because of what's going on with Google, right? Amazon's getting spooked what's going to come from their earnings, what's Jassy going to say, and the reality is, guys, my opinion, I think Jassy's going to put a cap on the CapEx. I've said that before, I'll say it again. He's going to be conservative for the rest of the year, I think 2027, heck, he might be conservative there as well, at at least on this call, um, and that is going to be good for investors. And all eyes are on, obviously, AWS, but free cash flow as well. I'm pretty sure last quarter Amazon had negative $7 billion free cash flow. So, all eyes are on that number. And if that number comes in better than expected, if AWS grows 40%, which I think it will, um, you know, if they put a cap on the CapEx, and they pretty much say, you know, it's all about the language in the call. If they if they kind of ease investors' concerns, and they say anything along the lines of, "Okay, we're going to be a little more conservative on spending. We're not going to, you know, blow a bunch of money." Um, I think there's a decent chance the stock ends up moving. Call me crazy, but I think there's a decent chance the stock ends up moving, um, on that news. And I'm making a prediction on Kalshi, guys. Let me show you this. On Kalshi, you can actually predict what Amazon's going to say on their earnings call today, and we can see the different options down here in the odds. Uh, supply chain's at 72% right now. Sponsored products is at 70%. Iran and Middle East, that's at 46%. It's actually ticking up a little bit, um, heading into the print. If we come down here a little more, uh, we can see some other options, some that are just, you know, for sure going to be said, you know, got we got some options at 97%, like tariff, uh, you know, but I think I'm going to take the, uh, the Iran Middle East, um, you know, side of the trade here and you can actually do that as well on on Kalshi, you know, my link down below gives you a $50 deposit bonus once you actually sign up, put $25 of your own money, you get a $50 deposit bonus once you trade that $25 on whatever you want, whether it's Amazon's earnings call, you know, what what's going on with uh oil, you know, what's next for the Strait of Hormuz, you know, what's coming next with interest rates. You can trade on whatever you want essentially on Kalshi, guys, and I've been doing this for the better part of a year now and I I'm a fan of the prediction market. So again, check out that link. They are the sponsor of today's video and get your $50 deposit bonus. I think there's a good chance uh you know, Jassy, the management team talks about Iran, talks about the Middle East on the call today. We shall see. And again, I think there's another another good chance that we get a big pop, maybe not right after earnings, but maybe after earnings on Amazon and that's why I bought call options yesterday, which they are down today thanks to Google. Thank you, Google. Uh but I bought the November 20th call, so that you know, they they do have some I do have some time on my side a little bit there. Um and I think we do get a pop on earnings. We shall see. What do you guys think about that? So let me show you what Microsoft is doing. Let's switch gears a little bit here. Uh Microsoft's down a little bit, but initially it popped on earnings. The stock was up to 570 in the after market yesterday. Now we're down to 520. I mean, talk about a volatile stock market today, guys. This is insane. They reported revenue of 52.3 billion. That was up around 19% and that beat the estimate of 90.6 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.89. That was up 18%. Also beat the 471 estimate. Um so they actually beat top and bottom line. Azure came in uh let's see Azure came in at 33.17 billion. That was up 48% not bad. Uh looks like cash purchases of property and uh property and equipment was at 39.4 billion leaving approximately 18.63 uh billion in free cash flow. So clearly guys the market um is rewarding companies that have positive free cash flow. Um at this point Google again doesn't. Um you know Amazon that's the key number for Amazon even if it's negative if it's not as bad as expected or better than whatever right better than expected Amazon could get rewarded in my opinion and they got it for next quarter revenue guidance of 96 to 97.1 billion Microsoft did with Azure growth of 49 to 50% in constant currency. So Microsoft great company they've been crushing it ever since um two quarters ago and I think for me it's just too over bought to buy. I'm chasing the stocks that are beaten up right now. Um I'm buying for the long term. Microsoft just doesn't fit that category but maybe ServiceNow does. ServiceNow is down 25% today man and yes it was pretty much priced to perfection heading into earnings. We hit 160 uh right before earnings. We pretty much I don't want to say we doubled from last quarter but we got pretty damn close 80% up move since last quarter. Now it's down 25% revenue came in at 4.1 billion. That was up 20.5% for ServiceNow. Subscription revenue was at 3.98 billion. That was up 21%. Adjusted EPS was a dollar versus the 95 cents from last year. Uh let's see adjusted operating income was 1.33 billion. Adjusted operating or adjusted margin was 32.5% versus 33.5 from last year. Total contracted backlog was about $30 billion up 22% from last year. Full year free cash flow margin target right now is 36%. So, so what is going on? Why is the stock taking a hit? Well, it has a lot to do with forward backlog. The the growth it disappointed. ServiceNow guided Q4 current remaining performance obligations contracted revenue expected over the next 12 months to grow 18 and a half percent versus rough roughly [clears throat] 20% expected and 21% growth in Q3. So, a little bit soft there. Earnings did miss a little bit there and margins did weaken like we said adjusted operating margin fell to 32 and a half percent from 33 >> [clears throat and cough] >> and a half percent from last year. Cheers to that guys or maybe not so much of a cheers for ServiceNow, but yeah, there were some weak spots in the report. It makes sense considering it was priced to perfection. It makes sense we're getting this type of sell-off post earnings. Eli Lilly, did you guys see this one man? Insanity guys. Eli Lilly is up 6% and it's completely breaking out to a fresh all-time high. The ascending triangle we had heading into earnings is obviously now playing out and my play in this space is not Eli Lilly. I'm actually in Viking Therapeutics a bit more risky. This is ripping on earnings as well. On a side note, it's up around 78%. I'm in some calls that expire in January 2028. So, I'm loving this. I think I'm in the $25 calls. So, I bought some in the money calls and I think there's a lot more upside here, but that's besides the point. Eli Lilly crushed earnings guys. Clearly the stock is moving. Revenue came in at 24.4 billion, up 39% year-over-year. On adjusted EPS of 7.4 or $7.48, up 7%. Uh GAAP EPS was $7.22. That's up 16%. Um and both measures include a $4.57 per uh dollar per share acquired R&D charge. Um Mounjaro sales were up 65% to 10.7 billion. Uh Zepbound up 49% to 5.35 billion. World uh worldwide sales volume was up 53%. I mean, these these things are selling like hotcakes, guys. Insane. Uh revenue included approximately $900 million of benefits for milestones and rebate discount estimate adjustments. Uh full-year revenue guidance was raised to 91 and 92 billion dollars from [clears throat] 85 to 87 billion. And full-year adjusted EPS guidance was 35 to 36 dollars uh versus 35.50 to 36.50 previously. Um so, EPS guidance got cut a little bit. Uh but man, they boosted that full-year revenue. They are crushing it, guys. Um I'm not buying the breakout here. I think it's a little overbought. The time to have bought in the stock or the time to uh put, you know, where you should have put money in was back in, I would say, the middle of September with the benefit of hindsight here. Uh so, for now, maybe some profit taking will occur. Maybe it goes a lot higher, who knows. Uh but for me, I'm staying away. Again, [clears throat] my play is Viking Therapeutics. And we also got earnings out of MasterCard, which is up around 4% today, guys. Uh MasterCard is breaking out to 640. I'm pretty sure that's an all-time high, right? Yeah, all-time high for MasterCard. They reported revenue of 9.8 billion, up 14%. Adjusted EPS of $5.31. GAAP EPS of $5.28, up 22%. On adjusted net income of 4.7 billion. GAAP net income of 4.6 billion. Uh purchase volume was up 9%, gross dollar volume was 3 trillion dollars. That was up around 7%. Local currency cross-border volume was up 11%, switch transactions up 9% 9%. [clears throat] Payment network revenue up 11%, value-added services and solutions revenue up 19%. So, clearly there's healthy transaction cross-border growth with services growing even faster right now. Um and these figures suggest continued spending activity, uh though they don't tell us whether consumers are funding purchases comfortably or leaning more heavily on debt. Keep that in mind. Uh but man, what a killer quarter out of Mastercard and Eli Lilly. Uh maybe not so much out of ServiceNow and Google. Microsoft did pretty well. Um and that's the market for you, man. Not every company is going to hit a grand slam earnings report each and every time, you know? And for me, I focus on companies when I'm investing for the long term. That That's the key, long term. I'm focusing on companies that are um you know, focusing on the long term and that are seeing some weakness in the short term, which clearly Alphabet is. People are so focused on the spending, so focused on CapEx, negative free cash flow that they can't see where Google is going to be in 2030 and beyond. And I can. I can see it, guys, and I'm buying and I'm holding, man. I am holding and I've been holding for years. I mean, most recently, I guess not so recently, but I was buying the crap out of Google uh back here. I mean, look, back in 2022, this stock was at 150 at the peak of the COVID era, right? 150. It got all the way down to 80. The stock got cut in half, 45% and guess who was buying back then? In the face of the fear, me. I was buying a bunch at $80, $90 and I still own those shares today. Um, it's similar now. You know, it's similar now. We're getting a big sell-off. We're not quite down 45% from highs like we were back then, but that was a different era. We were in a bear market. We're not in a bear market now. Some people might think we are getting to one, but I don't think so. And we're down 32% from highs. I'm buying this thing all day, and I'm sitting on the shares. That's where I'm at. What about you guys? Follow along for more, and check out the link in my bio and the comments as well for my portfolio updates on Patreon, the private Discord, my ideas, my trades, all that stuff is on Patreon. I'll see you guys in there.