… in. You know, if you're Wall Street, if you're a big fund, it's the one you got to be in next year. And so I have zero doubts about AMD's not only their business model over the next several years, but really the stock price, right? And so every single time AMD falls, it's always a buy right now. And uh that's exactly what's going on there is it's just a phenomenon where stock will pull back, drop a bunch, people are like, "Oh, it's it's over." And then AMD just goes on another huge run, right? And so, um, my opinion is, you know, …
every single time AMD falls, it's always a buy right now.
AI-extracted context
AMD. So, AMD, listen, as I've said to you guys many times on this AMD run, the death of AMD has been greatly exaggerated. AMD is going to go on another ripper rally in my opinion. Um, it's the one you got to be in. You know, if you're Wall Street, if you're a big fund, it's the one you got to be in next year. And so I have zero doubts about AMD's not only their business model over the next several years, but really the stock price, right? And so every single time AMD falls, it's always a buy right now. And uh that's exactly what's going on there is it's just a phenomenon where stock will pull back, drop a bunch, people are like, "Oh, it's it's over." And then AMD just goes on another huge run, right?
Full Transcript
If there's one thing you know we like to do around these parts is flip some flapjacks. And man will be flipping some flapjacks here today. $75,000 upward move to the public count. Huge bounceback day for the public account after yesterday's uh let's call a little tough day out there. So public count flirting with going to new all-time highs. We're uh only down a very small percentage now at this point in time ladies and gentlemen. So I want to do some stock talk at the beginning of this video. The cheesecake factory continues to run. Look at this stock. I mean, it just it's insane. It's like it doesn't care what the market's doing. It's like, I'm going up. Like, you go down, I go up. You go up, I go up. It's unbelievable. Another alltime high for this stock. So, we'll talk about Cheesecake Factory in this video here today. Look at these moves. Incredible. I mean, Revolve is 7% plus move here today. Elf on a Shelf 7% plus move. RH a 6% plus move. Service now 6% plus move. SoFi 6% plus move. I stay louder. Say louder for the people in the back. 5%. Even the Nike was up 5% today. Uh Salesforce continues to roll four and a half% move. Celsius, the wealthiest actually getting uh moving in the right direction, right? And then of course the uh Cheesecake Factory. So we'll talk about these stocks in this video here today. AMD. So people are looking at this one. This is a oneweek spot right now. AMD down about 22K here today. up $1.151 million on this position in the public account. Uh we'll talk about AMD and where the stock is headed from here. I do think that's a very important subject. After we get done going through that, I want to react to a couple videos. First one up here, Brad Gersonner. So, this is a very important video to react to here. And the reason being is Brad Gersonner, he's uh either invested into or connected with like the whole AI wave and all these companies that are doing big stuff in the AI space. And so I think he's a definitely, you know, one of those guys that on one side it's like, okay, he's heavily invested in this whole industry. So maybe he's just going to talk his book, but I also think it's you always got to listen to people and like say, okay, do they make good points or not? And so that's what we're going to do here today. And he might he makes some definitely some compelling points to give you some thought about like this is probably a bigger runway than I think a lot of people are really anticipating here, right? Then once we get done going through that, I want to react to somebody from Funstrat, not Tom Lee today. Uh Newton, he says investors should be diversified but should be buying the dip in tech. Oh man, you always know fund strap they always got to be bullish. So looking forward to uh you know sharing my opinion and perspectives there. One thing one thing I need from you guys before we get rolling here. Just smash that like button for me. I appreciate y'all for doing that. Also make sure you subscribe to the channel. I am on the uh road to recovery. And by the way, I don't know why my feed's being a little weird here today. I don't know what's going on. Look at look at my look at this back here. What is going on here? like the screen's being weird. Whatever. We're going to still record, right? But uh yeah, I'm feeling quite a bit better. Been getting some good sunshine. Been recovering. Thank goodness. And uh appreciate y'all for always joining me. Thanks so much for being here, man. We always got exciting times. Exciting times, right? Okay, so Cheesecake Factory, let's get started with this one. You know, what's the deal here with Cheesecake Factory? How's this stock just keep going higher? Is it eventually due for a downward move? Okay, listen. The company's clicking on all cylinders, right? and they're doing everything. When I first started investing in the stock, you know, a lot of people didn't get it, and I understand, but they're doing everything I thought they could. With that being said, the stock's definitely getting more expensive now at this point in time. But there's a weird thing that happens in the market. Sometimes a stock can get more expensive. And it's because Wall Street is finally understanding the story in regards to that stock. And so if we look at Cheesecake Factory, a lot of Wall Street has not understood the story. The story with Cheesecake Factory in my opinion is they've got this ATM cash cow business which is Cheesecake Factory and they've got multiple growth concepts that are going to be huge across the United States of America. North tally is one and the biggest one bigger than anything the company has going on is Flowerchild, right? And the comps there are insane. And so Wall Street's finally catching up to that story after all this time and all these years, right? And so the company's getting a valuation rerating. So, if I look at Cheesecake Factory stock today. Okay. Um, let me go ahead and I'm on ThousandX here over on my big computer. Let me type in cake. You got to use thousandx on the big boy computer. Okay. So, cake is in a, you know, a foreign p now in the mid20s, right? For cake historically, that's kind of rich. There's no debate. Like, that's a rich multiple for Cheesecake Factory, right? But if you expect Cheesecake to have years and years of growth, 10 years plus of growth ahead because of North Talia, Flowerchild and the other concepts coming behind that, it's not a rich multiple. It's just rich based upon their historical standards. Right? So if you look at something like Cabba, so now I'm going to type in Cava. Cava Cava Cava Cava here on thousandxtocks.com. Cava trades at a forward P of 59. 59 forward P for Cava, right? Cabba is a growth concept in the restaurant space. They got one growth concept as Kava and that's it, right? Cheesecake factory has multiple and look at the multiple Cava trades at over a 2x where cakes at, right? And so that's the interesting dynamic we had here in regards to cake is we've had a complete valuation rerating happen in that stock. Right now the question is does it ever rerate again back down to that 12 to 15 range? My opinion is highly unlikely. All things are possible, right? It's the market, but highly unlikely because once Wall Street started to understand they've got multiple growth concepts, that doesn't go away. And so my opinion is that 4P likely stays in the 20s. Could it go down to 20? That's could be fair. Could it go up to 28? That could be possible. But I think it stays somewhere in that 4P in in in the 20s. That's my opinion in regards to that. Right. And they also got their financing lined up. They also are doing a great job expanding the business. This is a company clicking on all cylinders. So yeah, it's a tough one. It's a tough one to take profits on because at the end of the day, they pay me out fatty dividends every 3 months. You got to understand the shares I bought back in the day, my dividend yield on that's big, right? I was buying this when it was a 3 4% yield. So I'm like, why do I need to run out of it? And it's one of the most quality companies I'm invested into, right? Uh let's go ahead and talk about some of these stocks. Revolve, ELF, RH. Now, SoFi, listen, let me put it simple to you, okay? Interest rates go down, these stocks boom, okay? And what we had today is interest rates going down pretty much across the board and several several interest rates, several Treasury yields in a substantial way, right? I told you guys I'm I'm still I'm still recovering here. Hold yours. This is one flipping flapjacking moment. Okay, I survived. So listen, when it comes to these stocks, there's certain ones that if interest rates, if if Treasury yields are going lower, they're going to bounce back even harder, right? RH is a great example of that. So SOFFI is a great example of that. Like those stocks are are set to boom. I mean, absolutely boom. But you got to also remember a few things here, okay? If we ever get a situation where Treasury yields start going down for the wrong reasons, what's the wrong reason? That's a situation where Treasury yields are going down because of recession fears and maybe deflation because of a recession. If that happens, stocks like when RH and these others that have that are benefiting uh short-term by interest rates going down, those ones could still falter if that was to happen. So my ideal situation is interest rates go lower over the next 6 to 12 months, right? and we don't have any sort of major recession in the real world economy. I call it um bounces back into a better spot over the next 1 to two years, right? And so naturally, I'm optimistic. I like to be an optimistic person. I like to think that uh everybody's going to be doing better economically. Everybody's job prospects are going to be doing better and and wage opportunities are going to be doing better and those sorts of things, right? One of the big things we got to get moving if we really want to get this US economy moving in a major way outside of the AI wave that's going on, right? Everybody knows big tech companies are spending fortunes of money on all this AI. Great. Okay. But what do we get moving for the economy to really get the economy moving outside of that? Residential real estate. We got to get real estate moving. The only way we get real estate moving, we got to get mortgage rates down. The only way you get mortgage rates down, we got to get that 10 year down. So, if we can talk about the 10-year slides down without a major recession over the next year or more, we can talk about the housing market getting going. We talk about the housing market get going. We talk about the economy getting going and we talk about better days ahead, right? And so, um, that is what I think has a decent probability of of happening, right? There's always a range of outcomes that can happen in any of these scenarios, but I think there's a decent probability that happens. Certain of these stocks are going to, if that does play out, are going to bounce way harder than others, right? A stock like RH will double like quick, too. We're talking 6 to9 months, double. Uh stock like SoFi will double 6 to9 months. Like it happens quick. And so, um you know, and when I say double, I'm talking about from the lows these stocks hit yesterday. Like SoFi was 13 yesterday, right? Like SoFi goes to 26 like that. if interest rates can go lower without a major recession, right? And so, um, now the the other worry is, okay, what if you get into a major recession? Well, we'll cross that bridge if we get to that bridge, right? Um, that's one of the situations if you're in a full-blown crash recession, you just hold on. You buy as much as you can during that whole dynamic and and uh make it out to the other side. Whenever you're going through any crash in the market, the main thing you guys have to remember, listen, it's just about making it out to the other side and trying to make it out to the other side as unscathed as possible, right? The public account, you know, 2022, we got hit bad. I was not positioned well for 20, you know, what happened in 2022 and we got hit hard in the public account, right? But we made it out to the other side. I made it out with still about a million dollars in the public account, right? And um that million dollars in the public account now a few years later, right? Four years later roughly is now $5.2 million. So, you know, and you say, well, we had some deposits over time. Sure, but that's like a super small amount compared to how much the public account has increased in value over these years, right? So, the moral of the story is here, make it through. Try to make it through as unscathed as possible if you ever go through a crash. But, but make it through, man. Like, that's just the biggest thing. You don't want to go under. Some people go under in those situations. They put themselves too far because they were way margined out. They were maybe super heavy in call options or something like that. They got caught off sides and then they lose 70 80 90 plus percent of their portfolio. You're done. Ski then you know you're finished for a long time. You're finished for probably 5 10 years, right? So it take you a long time to come back from that. So you just got to make it out to the other side. We got off subject there, right? That was just uh we got off subject there. We were talking about that and then I'm talking about how to, you know, uh, not go under during a recessionary scenario, right? Um, Estee Lauder continues to benefit big, right? Nike, that one's just been devastated. We got a long way to climb back there on Nike. Um, you know, when it comes to stocks like Nike, I mean, it's a real interesting stock, right? Because if you bought the stock a year ago, two years ago, 3 years ago, you hate that stock. You're down huge on it just like I am, right? 46%. But if you bought Nike in the last few weeks or the last month or two, right? Like you are you're kind of you're probably pretty dang optimistic, are you not? You Yeah, you likely are, right? Let me look up Nike here on 1000X. You know, this stock, let's pull up a sixmonth on this one, right? This stock bottomed recently at 33. Now it's at 37. So if you bought in the past, you know, we can call it a month or two, you're probably pretty optimistic on Nike. But if you bought like when I bought, you're not so optimistic, right? And that's where individual stocks timing is very important, right? You know, time in the market always beats time in the market for for an overall portfolio building, right? But when it comes to individual stock picking, the moment you get in is very important, right? You look at me with SoFi. So I'm up 63% on that stock's done me tremendous. I think it's going to do me phenomenal in the future. But if you bought SoFi at $30 when it was 30 bucks, what was it last year? You hate SoFi. You're like, "This stock is horrible, right? It's like $15 or whatever price it is, $16. And you're like, "What is wrong with this thing? It was 13 bucks yesterday." So, individual stocks, you got to get your timing right, man. And a lot of that goes back to running your projections and really understanding if you're getting a great deal on the stock or not. And if you're not getting a great deal on the stock, you have to be okay with not buying it. You have to be okay with not buying it. Sometimes that's just a situation, right? Like, it is what it is, right? And in the private group, by the way, I teach you guys all this stuff I'm talking about here in depth about running projections on companies so you can figure out if you're getting a great deal on a stock or a bad deal. We run all the projections through thousandx.com. So important. Otherwise, you're just throwing darts at a dart board. When you ever you make an investment decision, you got to know what you're doing. You got to feel confident like, I'm getting a steel deal on this stock and this stock can likely, you know, give me this sort of return over the next three to five years. If you don't have that going in, what what you got? You know, that's tough because no matter what, the stock market's always going to be, you know, nothing's ever guaranteed in the stock market as with any investments, right? But at least you got to put yourself in a position where it's like, okay, this makes sense to buy this particular asset at this particular price and here's what it could yield if this and this and this happen over the coming years, right? And that's the name of the game and that's why we've fortunate to have so much success in the public account over time, right? Salesforce big move up here today, $11,000 plus dollars, right? those SAS related companies continue to um just be in a very strong spot overall. Celsius, the wealthiest, that one's got a long way to go. You guys know what I say about Celsius. You know what I say? Best deal in the stock market. You know, from if I'm just thinking about what has the most what's the best riskreward for the next three years is right there. Celsius is the wealthiest. I don't I can't find a better stock riskreward profile for the next three years than Celsius. Cheesecake Factory. We spoke about that one. Now, AMD. So, AMD, listen, as I've said to you guys many times on this AMD run, the death of AMD has been greatly exaggerated. AMD is going to go on another ripper rally in my opinion. Um, it's the one you got to be in. You know, if you're Wall Street, if you're a big fund, it's the one you got to be in next year. And so I have zero doubts about AMD's not only their business model over the next several years, but really the stock price, right? And so every single time AMD falls, it's always a buy right now. And uh that's exactly what's going on there is it's just a phenomenon where stock will pull back, drop a bunch, people are like, "Oh, it's it's over." And then AMD just goes on another huge run, right? And so, um, my opinion is, you know, right around Halloweenish, maybe a little before is AMD is going to start another big huge run, right? And, um, next thing you know, we'll be Q1 of next year and the stock will be at a huge all-time high. That's my opinion. You know, I could be wrong about that, but I've been pretty good with calling AMD, right? So, um, we'll see. We'll see what happens there, but that's that's what I think is going to happen there, right? Okay, let's go ahead and react to Brad Gersonner. I think he's an important one to pay attention to regarding this AI stuff and then we'll get into Funstrat Newton. He's been in nearly every major meeting at the White House that they've held on AI. Snowflake CEO is going to join me as well today as the future of software in this AI age remains a hotly debated subject. The investment committee with me as well, Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Malcolm Ethridge. Can't wait to hear from everybody today. you know what the market picture looks like, but let's show you because the Dow's up big, but AI stocks are not. Um, I want to start with you as we, you know, we think about semis, what's happening with Cororee, and we'll get to Cororee more specifically in in a moment. Is this about AI slowdown concerns? Is this about debt levels and interest rates going up? Is this about choice C? All of the above. >> What do you think? >> Yeah, of course it's all of the above. Well, first, great to be back here. We talked about this maybe a month ago, right? The number one question in the market today is, do the AI revenues justify the capex buildout? I mean, frankly, it goes back to the conversation I had with Sam Alman on my podcast last October when I asked him the question, how can you make a bill a trillion dollars of spending commitments when you have 13 billion in gap revenue? Well, what happened this year is revenues exploded higher. Right? Remember the forecast for Anthropic at the start of this year, $30 billion. Now, a lot of the reports have them doing at least a hundred billion dollars. We'll get into that a little bit today. But the fact of the matter is AI revenues exploded higher this year. And now we're in this phase of consolidation. People are starting to worry. Is >> Yeah. No, I I do think what he's bringing up here is very important. Okay. Listen, that's freakish. Like for you to as a company to go from basically no revenue to hundred billion in like a two or threeear span is is crazy. We've never seen anything like that before. Uh, not even the great Meta, not even Google, like none of these companies, Apple, like you never seen a company go from like no revenue to to 100 billion run rate like that. That's crazy. Which, you know, is is pretty exciting if you own the chip companies, right? like an AMD or even an Nvidia that a company can come out with a successful product and it can take off like that and start generating so much revenue and then that company can go ahead and reinvest and buy more and more chips right and build more and more infrastructure. So very very exciting >> source commoditizing the frontier labs are the revenues sustainable and at the same time then they're hearing in the marketplace that things may have slowed down. So that plus higher rates plus some of the political stuff going on in the background background has people scared. I will tell you I'm on the I'm on the more positive side of this but I think it's good we have this churn in the market. It avoids bubbles. >> Okay. You're more posit you're on the more positive side. Uh but your actions suggest that you are getting more cautious, don't they? I mean, you've you've taken your exposure down. Yes. I mean I >> I will agree with him regarding um you know, all this worries all the time. Definitely makes it less likely you get a bubble in the market. I mean, you know, look at Nvidia. Nvidia is a really good example, right? Like this is how fearful people are of all these stocks really, right? You have a stock like Nvidia right now that's trading at 4 rupee a dosey do a 224 rupee on Nvidia with you know revenue or EPS growth on a trailing 12 month basis of 125%. What that's increasing next 12 months EPS growth is expected to be 94%. I mean you know with margins that we've never seen before and it's trading at Ford P at 22. That just shows you how much fear there really is about bubble bubble bubble and uh that kind of actually puts you in a situation where it's hard to get a bubble. You know, obviously you look at MU. MU is trading at probably a forward P of five or four right now, right? Um you know because there fears about memory and those sorts of things. So when you have all that, it's actually really healthy for the stock market. >> I did um you know a a presentation at the All-In Summit about a month ago. I said I had taken my exposure down to medium small. I think I had shared that with you just the week before then and the reason for that is I saw a lot of these AI stocks in April and May we had the biggest move in semis in history right and that was the that fuse was lit by the anthropic revenue report in March of the year and I just thought they got ahead of themselves that we were going to consolidate a little bit and it turns out there were even more fears that came along inflation rates etc. So, our exposures are the lowest they've been in three years, right? Over the course of the last couple months. >> The lowest they've been in three years. H how can you then profess how sort of positive you you are? >> Because remember remember I live in two simultaneous but different worlds. One world is I manage money for people in a hedge fund. And so my job is to make sure I avoid some of the draw down. In my longon only fund and in my my you know growth funds and venture funds. We're investing for the next 5 to 10 years. So, I'm telling you, when I look at 27 and 28, I'm even more positive. And we can get into why, but you have to acknowledge that there's going to be chop along the way. So, it doesn't surprise me at all that we've had some of that chop, some of that consolidation. Why am I getting more positive? Why am I leaning in and maybe start buying over the course of the next couple weeks? Because I'm seeing prices come in and start to get enticing again. Well, I mean, Josh, that that's the trillion dollar question. Whether there's more pain to be had in this market, whether we're going to get to some levels that are attractive not only to a Brad Gersonner, but to a Josh Brown and any investor who is now watching this program thinking about where we are and where you >> we're going. Yeah. Look, I I think something really interesting happened this week. We finally got the answer or part of the answer to the riddle that everybody's been wondering about. The question was why have rates been marching higher really since June but accelerating into the end of September and early October? And it was this big debate. Is it oil prices uh feeding into inflation expectations? Is it reverse crowding out where all this debt coming from the AI capex buildout is making it so the government has to raise the rate in order to entice buyers? Like I think what we learned yesterday was the latter is a really big driver of rates. Think about what happened. We had a hot uh PPI, hot CPI doesn't really matter because in the end bonds fell when it looked like there would be less bonds coming from the core weaves and the neoclouds and maybe even some of the established uh incumbents in in data centers. All of a sudden we had this crazy move in rates what looks like a blowoff top um in in the five-year in the 10-year. That tells you how much of the rise in rates is coming from just too many bonds being offered by corporate America. If we think there's going to be a slowdown there, and that's what the stock prices of Nebius and Cororeweave and the rest tell you, all of a sudden we get rates come in and look what's working in the market today. Everything other than AI caught a a big bid from healthcare to even staples. We're seeing housing related plays move. That's a really interesting situation. I think for people that are trying to figure out where from here, the answer for uh stock market investors is, hey, do yourself a favor. Instead of adding the fifth semiconductor name to your portfolio, look elsewhere. That's what the market is telling us today. Well, Steph, there's been a debate about the looking elsewhere, right? I mean, the the the market became much more concentrated at the expense of the elsewhere, which you've been advocating for repeatedly, and now maybe the pendulum is starting to swing back the other way as we ask more serious questions about where we are in the AI trade. >> Well, I don't think it's one or the other. I think it's both. And you know, I have been adding to technology on any of the declines, but I also have been very much exposed to Yeah. the 493 other stocks and other sectors. And I think the reason um is because the economy continues to grow. In the face of higher rates and higher inflation, we're still growing north of 3%. Um, and like today's data, I know we were all focused on PPI and yesterday CPI, but did you look at retail sales, how great that was, and weekly jobless claims, a 4-week moving average of 198,000, the lowest level uh since 1969. You look at some of the like the manufacturing uh regional series like the Philly Fed, the Empire Fed. There are a lot of good things that are happening beyond tech uh technology, beyond AI. And yeah, I think we should see a catch-up because I think you are going to see earnings. I thought the bank earnings this week, yeah, a little sloppy, but outside of capital markets and M&A, the rest of the businesses are humming. And you have these stocks that have been at one point Morgan Stanley was up 25% this year, now flat on the year. And so the valuations are coming down. Scott, in the semiconductor space, I do not think that AI and the food chain. I don't think it's dead. We haven't seen any kind of um any kind of change in the $1 trillion spend that we're seeing from the hyperscalers. Rates certainly going to hurt some of the bad players that have bad balance sheets. Core Wee has 50 billion in debt. Oracle has 167 billion in debt. So sure, higher rates are going to hurt them, but you've got cash generators that are actually down just as much that are opportunities. Nvidia and Broadcom, Micron, and I know we'll get to all of them later, but you have very healthy companies that are getting caught up in this tailwind of um of of just concern. And I think you're going to see opportunity in tech as well as beyond tech. >> Malcolm, what what do you make of what's been happening with the AIcentric trade? >> Yeah, the really silly thing, really silly, is when you have these AI sell-offs, they're not based upon reality. you you don't have to worry until you get Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Open AI, Anthropic, these sorts of companies to pull back on capex. The moment that happens, but in the hatches in regards to AI chip related stocks, but you don't have that, and you're not having that anytime soon, right? Anytime soon meaning in the next year. Two years out, oo, now we can talk. We can talk. Two years out, we could have a big pullback, right? 3 years out for sure we could talk, right? But in the next 12 months, uh, not super realistic, right? And so we know these companies are committed to just spending every dime they have coming in on these chips plus taking out debt. And so um, now they don't have much to raise at past 28, right? But the moral of the story is here like the spend is still intact for now, right? And so there will be a moment you got to get scared, but it's it's it's not right now. It might be 6 months from now, might be 12 months from now, might be 18 months from now, but it's not at the exact moment. Yeah. I I I think that what we're seeing is potentially a changing of the guard. So I heard Brad mention we're probably going to see a tremendous amount of chop between now and when we finally get there. I'm listening to Josh and Stephanie talk about looking outside of the Mag 7, let's say, or the hyperscalers for the opportunity to stick with the AI trade or to diversify. And what I think we're looking at is not necessarily a changing of the guard in the sense that AI is no longer going to be the thing that's powering the economy as well as the stock market. Maybe what we're looking at is just some other companies beneath the surface that we haven't really paid attention to because they're not the chips. They're not the core weaves of the Nebus. They're not the the hyperscalers, the mag 7 that's doing all the building. They're the companies that are really going to weaponize the AI technology as it's as it's being constructed right now. And they're going to figure out ways to do a lot more with a lot less. And that is what's going to drive the second leg of the AI revolution. And I think that's probably the question that we should be looking to answer. Is it one where we've got to actually take the market down entirely to make that rotation or is it one that we can successfully make the leap between where we are right now and those companies that will come out as the new leaders at the forefront of the AI revolution? I'm thinking software. Obviously, that's that's a very direct link. But I'm looking also at the companies beyond that. You heard Brian Moahan, for example, talking about how they've had to add a thousand people to their 3,000piece orchestra to help build out their cyber security outfit. But it's also expected that they're going to see something like a $700 million savings uh starting next year just from what they've done to deploy AI across the bank. And that's one company out of however many thousands of global enterprises. So I think that's where the real opportunity is that investors should be paying attention to and figuring out how to get to where the puck is going. >> So I think the big takeaway here is these companies are expanding rapidly. Specifically, we're talking about OpenAI, Anthropic, um, and a lot of these other companies that are in the AI space, right? Those are the two most people talk about. And so, it's very exciting times, very exciting times. And the business models can be built rapidly and grow rapidly. Like, so you think about anthropic, let's say anthropics right now at hundred billion dollar revenue run rate. Where are they a year from now? Are they 200 billion, 300 billion, 400 billion? Right? It's completely up for debate, but the the growth is staggering. And um it's like nothing we've ever really seen. You know, when we talk about I mean gosh, o OpenAI, what is OpenAI's run rate for revenue? Um and obviously OpenAI calculates a little different. OpenAI revenue run rate. So OpenAI revenue run rate is approximately 50 billion, right? Um, and from my understanding that they calculated a little, let's call it better, right, than Anthropic. Anthropic's like, I guess a little bit more questionable the way they're calculating their revenue, but still $50 billion from a company that four years ago, no one had any clue about this, right? And so, where's OpenAI's revenue run, right? A year from now, is it a h 100red billion, 75 billion, 150 billion, right? Like the growth is is unbelievable. And um the next question is do we we've started to see the revenue pick up with AWS, Google Cloud. Um Azure has been kind of more just consistent. We haven't seen a big uptick really there. Maybe we will, but we haven't yet, right? But the next question is, are we going to start to see with these SAS companies a big revenue uptick? I'm talking Service Now. I'm talking Salesforce. Cuz if we talk about that, then those companies start growing rapidly, then we're we're we're having a party, man. And we're just having a party. All right, Newton. See what you got to say. >> Of techn technical strategy. Um, all right. Who wants to jump? Let's talk technicals. Mark, first with you. Okay. Because the price action has been kind of crazy and some so divine that a little bit for us. What's going on? >> Look, I I think it's it's fair to say the cross asset uh volatility has really started to pick up in the last month. We saw Ecoated S&P down about 6% at a time when the S&P literally just hit new all-time highs seven trading days ago. So a lot of this has already been happening while tech was rallying during September. That since has reversed. Tech has pulled back very sharply this last week. Uh arguably we really have not seen that much damage in technology compared to the move that it had back in September. Uh this whole year has been marked by rotation. We saw initially in energy rallying almost 40% that spread to technology. Now it's spreading to healthcare which just hit new all-time highs. Uh investors need to be prepared for these shifts in sectors. uh arguably you need to be diversified. Uh but right now, you know, in my opinion, it's right to buy the dip in technology. >> Steve, coming into a week ago, about 40% of the S&P 500 was in a technical bare market, but nobody uh is advice there is is is that good advice? I'll say absolutely diversified very important. If you guys look at the public account, like one of the ways a public account gets it through these times when and even an AMD can go down is it's very well diversified growth value dividends. And so AMD could go down and the public accounts could still be up $75,000 here today, right? Now imagine if AMD had a good day, right? Um so diversity is very key. And then additionally, buying the dip in tech, I don't think it's a bad decision, right? Especially if you got any sort of longer term horizon. If you're just thinking about the next two weeks, who knows? Um, but if you're thinking about the next several years, yeah, buying opportunities for sure because those were the companies that are not running the show. >> But also, let me say, I don't think those are the best buying opportunities. I think you got a lot better buying opportunities that are not techreated in the stock market right now. The problem now and what worries me a little bit and why I tweeted out last night the market feels a little bit fragile is that the companies that are being sold the last couple of days are the ones that are running the show. They are AI AI related and semiconductors. They're holding up right now. How important is this time these next few days for the market? >> Well, I I don't disagree with you, Brian. I think the problem here is Well, it's not a problem. It's worked really well, but we are all heavily invested in AI whether we want to be or not. If you're putting if you're taking your 401k and a certain amount of it goes into an S&P S&P 500 index fund, you're 45% invested or more in in technology whether you like it or not >> or or if you intend to do it or not. That's my point. Even people that may be like, I'm not worried about it because I'm not invested in AI. Yes, you are, folks. you are probably invested in AI even if you don't think or know that you are invested in AI and there's hundreds or thousands of ETFs devoted to this and my worry is that if these stocks get sold and they have been ETFs get sold index funds then get sold and you get this sort of rolling stone down the hill momentum trade on the downside >> that can happen and as of now we've seen a lot of rotation going back and forth to Mark's point with with with different sectors. I almost call it like the whale watching boat thing. We all run to one side of the boat and you know the whale's there, it swims around, we all run to the other side of the boat to see something else. The problem is if we have a sustained decline in technology, if people really start to question the ROI on AI investment, which has allowed the stock market to rally despite bonds, bond yields going up, because if you think the ROI is infinite, what do you care if you borrow at 9% or 20%. I don't care. I'm making 60%. What what's the difference? If if that starts to become a real concern and that's what Coreweave is telling us, that's where the fragility comes in. >> Oh, for sure. 100%. All right, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Uh for those of you that want to become the best investor you can, you want to join the private group, apply to join. That will be pinned comment down there. Click on that, fill out a form, see if we can get you in there maybe this weekend or next week. That's access to all my course curriculums, private Discord chat, exclusive weekly videos, thousandx.com, all that good stuff, plus a lot more. And hey, we'll send you your steel membership cards to your house once you join us in there. Private group card, we'll send you a 1000X card and uh the black card if you join us on a lifetime basis. All righty. Much love and have a great day.
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