The ONLY Thing That Matters For Tesla

I think I'm gonna piss off some Tesla people on this call. And I hate doing that, but I I gotta speak the truth. I feel like Elon does not have a nuance sense. He has no taste when it comes to anything beyond raw technology in terms of like actual human taste. I just don't think he has it. But someone on his team must have overruled him. You know what I think happened? I think that Elon is so focused on other things the last 18 24 months that his team actually got to make some decisions without him being overly involved. And whoever is running at least on the interior of that car is insane. But let's talk about the cyber cab because this thing guys, by the way, there's so much misinformation out there. Like there's just people the stock chart of the last two days makes so much sense to me. This is exactly what I would think would happen because the hype going into that event and on the surface, what Tesla was putting out was phenomenal. But as soon as you start peeling off the layers of truth and actually assessing the viability, the timelines, the economics, and how all of this is actually going to play out, by the way, potentially very good, but the timelines and at the valuation level, this entire FSD robo taxi thing is a very good to great thing for Tesla, which is already baked into the price. Period. End of story. All of it, like all of it is baked into Tesla's price right now. >> Is it baked in at the best case scenario, the mid-range scenario, or like >> I mean, I think it's baked in for where it's at, right? Because it's a small So, like you've still got a small sample of cars that are being put into this. By the way, the only way that they can even do this is Texas because of the regulations that are in California. They can't do a self-driving uh test like this or I mean a full autonomous taxi in California right now. >> Jordan, forget about a small sampling of cars. If they were to ramp this up to a million, okay, a million robo cabs or whatever, even at that, if you look at the economics, which are kind of debatable, it's very early. There's a lot of factors and more questions and answers, but you're looking at like tens of billions of profit annually at like a million of these things. And do you know how difficult it's going to be to get a million of these things with all the different regulatory issues state by state by state? We are looking at so far down the road. So, you're telling me that once you get a million of them, realistically, we're looking at tens of billions. Throw on a PE because at that point, it's a pretty mature business. It's not going to be a wild PE. We're looking at a fraction of Tesla's valuation already today. So, like it's very hard to get, and I've been saying this for a long time. Elon knows this, by the way. Elon has said this. The entirety of Tesla is Optimus. We're not going to talk about Optimus right this second, but Optimus is everything. >> We do need to talk about it a little bit because how much of Optimus is priced in? And Elon has said that Optimus will be 80% of Tesla in the future. So, does Cyber Cab does robo taxi really matter and how much? Because >> it's just a portion, right? It's just a it's just a portion. Our AI calculated that 2 million cyber cabs could do a 105 billion of annual bookings and at a 30% operating margin that's $31 billion. It's not like critical. It's actually nothing when you look at the valuation of Tesla. It's so all of the future potential theoretical economic benefit from robo cab is fully baked in to Tesla stock right now. So there's essentially zero upside. Zero. Okay. There's one thing that makes Robo Cab extremely important, right? And there's one thing only. The only thing that matters because the entirety of the success of that program is baked into Tesla stock right now. But there's one thing that's not baked in. And that is if Tesla can actually execute on robo taxi, okay, in a very big way, the numbers are not going to really matter that much relative to the valuation of Tesla, but it's going to serve as a proof point that Tesla is more likely than not to pull off Optimus, which is roughly 100 to a,000 times the size of robo taxi. Okay, so 100 to a,000 times the size. So if Tesla fails at this, people are going to be less confident in their ability to pull off something that is actually more difficult, which is Optimus, the robot. But if they succeed and they execute and they show that they actually have their crap together after the last few years of mis expectations and being kind of all over the place and Elon being all over the place now will start to develop a confidence that these guys can be a top one two company globally in robotics generalized robotics and that is what gets you the theoretical 10 trillion 1520 trillion valuation at some point in the future. That's what could potentially excite institutional and retail investors, even those guys that are are informed and are actually basing Tesla's market cap on something real because that's actually not just a theoretical, it's very real if they execute. So that's the only reason why I care about >> Yeah. Yeah, what we saw yesterday basically proves that in from an engineering standpoint and from a like being able to go from concept to a product that you can actually get in and ride around in Tesla can do that. Check. And they'll probably be able to build a robot that has capacity to scale. But turning that into a subscription business, turning that into a a number that actually helps their stock price. We need Tesla to prove that with I think that CyberCab is a good example of a technology that has a business model kind of, but they haven't been able to do it yet. >> I mean, there's just still so many questions uh with robo taxi, right? like regulatory even where they're able to do this like they still have regulatory humps to get through. There's requests that have to be there's the audit that the transportation safety board is is doing. There's the uh Tesla has this this concept that they can bypass that because this car doesn't have controls. So some of the safety features that are in most normal cars or all normal cars required to be there uh they get an exemption from that. That's a big unknown for like >> Well, they're just not even leading the market here, right? I mean, Whimo is the obvious market leader. They're they're way ahead of >> Whimo. Whimo being ahead and actually having more cars on the road all is is a positive for Tesla because they're going they're kind of having to deal with the exact same regulatory issues. >> Yeah. I mean, yeah, except they they tackle things in a little bit different way. There's different engineering behind it. So, it's, you know, it's a different it's a different animal. But Jordan, the entire thesis around Robo Taxi is that at some point, it doesn't matter how far ahead Whimo and the other guys are, that at some point the cost efficiencies of robo taxi will be so meaningfully superior to Whimo that it will be almost an impossibility for companies like Whimo to compete. Now, I'm not saying that's correct because there's still a lot of questions around that. Are you just saying because the car is more stripped down, right? So it's easier to it's less expensive to put each individual vehicle on the road. >> I think it's about more than that. I think yes, the stripped down nature of the car, the lack of LAR, the l and then also just the mass manufacturing expertise at scale of Tesla. Also fact that they are going to have a program that is going to you know share the cost of that with fleet management companies. There's just a really there are a lot of benefits if they can execute and I think that all those things combined Jordan I think are going to not create the greatest economic model for Tesla but what it will do is destroy the economic model of Tesla competitors that are coming in at a way higher cost. So I don't think this is like as insanely great of a business as we all once thought it would be for Tesla. But I do think it could theoretically be crushing for companies like Whimo. And then also I want to talk about this. This is I think the most interesting trade. I think this is where the trade gets really interesting. When I looked at this, the one thing that stuck with me is shorting Uber. And I know it's a controversial take, but I just do not see how Uber survives with the existing economics that they've been enjoying because the economics are going to get shattered no matter how you look at this. Even if Uber does their own thing in driverless, it really doesn't matter because if Tesla succeeds with, you know, robo taxi, it just shatters the economics for everyone else. It just seems like the riskreward here is in your favor long term of shorting Uber. Now, the timeline, that's a whole different story. >> Yeah, the timeline's tough, right? Uber Eats is a little tougher to disrupt with this model. >> Yeah, I I think that like straight up shorting Uber is dangerous. I think if if you could find a financial way to like play the distance between Tesla and Uber, that would be more interesting. But like Uber has other stuff. Uber is not just self-driving. Uber is a logistics company. >> This has been bugging me so much lately. By the way, this is why that stock chart the last day on Tesla perfectly perfect perfectly reflects reality. Tremendous hype on the surface level. Cool. As soon as you start peeling the layers off, you realize that there are 10x more questions and answers and the timelines are all over the place and the stock completely got destroyed and came back down to where it was before the event. Deservedly so. Deservedly so. >> There's always a communication problem with Tesla. I think if Tesla had set expectations that this was not a live stream event. This is just an employee party where we're inviting some of the uh the the friendly media, the the influencers, the YouTubers. We're going to show you what we what we have. We're going to let you ride in the cyber cab. It that's it. >> I think it shows how big of a non-event it is that Elon Musk wasn't there, right? He had the people who actually had product knowledge, >> right? But if it was a big deal for the company, if it was like if it was that groundbreaking for the company, he would have been >> I think they should have messaged that up front. They should have let us know instead of me sitting here refreshing the uh the X feed for Tesla all hoping something would start. They should have just told us, "No, this is not a live stream event. This is what we're calling a launch. And the launch is going to include a 15-minute presentation, and then we're going to let influencers ride around. And then the next day we're going to let the general public ride around and that's it. Don't get your hopes up for a robot. This is not what we're launching. We're launching a cyber cabin. Cool. And it's it's what we talked about two years ago and it's actually real and you're actually going to be able to get in one that drives you around without without any assistance.