Tim Knight Says the Nasdaq Just Broke Its Trend Line and the Dow Took Over

I heard my I heard my secret word chart. Let's go look at some um let's do it >> and let let's examine what we were just discussing. So, hidden our two big buddies here, the ES and the NQ. Let's just keep contrasting these. Uh the ES continues to be a uh uh madly in love with this horizontal. It it really does not stray far from home base here. Uh we had a nice tumble on Wednesday. Uh when you and I spoke yesterday morning, we were really near the lows and we had a a bit of a bounce. Um and then today, not much action. We're off just a touch. Um but no real break from this. Whereas the ENQ is to me where all the action is because as we look at the ENQ, you know what a week it's been. Um we hit the lifetime high last week um on the 6th I guess and from then um talk about no follow-through because that that looked like all systems were go and since then it's been a pretty steady selloff and the cool part to me is that uh yesterday we we were quite weak and we rallied and closed near the highs of the day but we had for the first time punctured this trend line. And what's really interesting to me today is that we have spent the day below the trend line. It seems to have and I I did a video that they're going to um uh publish either today or this weekend about trend lines cuz at Tasty, you know, from time to time they'll say, "Okay, here's what people are asking about." And so I got word that, okay, it's trend lines, which is the most simple, basic, but important thing to follow. And this is an example of that in action where we have this role change going on. Um, and it's, you know, the bigger the trend line, the more impactful the change. So something going back to July 29th isn't a gargantuan deal, but it's pretty good. And so we have broken that. And that just gives me, you know, that's why I have tiptoed back into five other positions um in tech, including quantum, the crazy stuff. Um, because we've gotten that kind of break. And then just to wrap up this little trio, as you and I were just mentioning, the uh the odd man out uh is uh the Dow, the YM, uh which has pretty much been rallying. Um as tech has been weakening, the Dow's been rallying because the bottom here was October 2 and up up we go. We're basically at, you know, I know it's not a big deal, but multi-week highs. It's some kind of achievement in this market and we've cut above this descending channel. So maybe it's a flight to the old school stuff. I don't know why, but the Dow has been the uh the bull haven. >> No, it's been super strong. And that's I was going to ask you, does that kind of give you pause a little bit um or reason for pause as far as like an all everything selloff when you see this thing actually sort of defying what everybody else is doing? >> Oh, sure. Oh u it uh yes comma but uh I am not banking on like everything's going to fall. Uh the what I love about this market is that we can be selective. We can we can um explore the map and find those places where there's the best bullish opportunities or the best bearish opportunities. Um, I I would I mean it sounds counterintuitive, but I would vastly prefer the market to just do nothing in perpetuity and just sort of like sneak around like a little mammal and find these find these uh movers because when when everything falls big time, then the government comes in and they start like saving the day. Um, so I don't want their attention. Um, so no, this is fine. I I have this I have a really perverse uh uh uh preference for things kind of secretly breaking down beneath the surface and everything seeming nice on the top like this. >> Yeah, it makes sense. I I just wanted to give you the opportunity to explain that because I know a lot of people have often wondered that and they just figure, you know, you you're calling for death and destruction and everything, right? >> Oh, yeah. You're just looking for prices. >> Long-term death and destruction on the menu. Uh but in you know and I do I also want to be clear cuz I keep you know election day election day 10 days left 10 days left and all this. It's not like God help you November 4 is going to be straight down. I just think it's going to get a lot more chaotic, a lot more volatile. um we're going to have to follow things like hour to hour and it it's it's weird to me that as we look at um the uh the the volatility um this chart is basically just complacency exclamation mark like nothing's going to happen everything's cool there's no geopolitical risk there's no political there's no political risk um just keep on keeping on it's like really so um I I'm not trading options these days, but for for those uh super bears who are out there buying puts, they sure are getting them cheap because you're not paying for any fear. It seems to me you're right about that. Um I mean even in this type of time period, like typically I think people would be a little bit more worried given uh the moves that we've seen, especially with the stuff that was at the top, the tech stuff, >> but I don't feel like uh there's that much fear. And when you look at the VIX, like you're pointing out, it's not there. Yeah. And you know, this isn't a chart, but the the big event coming up in November besides the election is the anthropic IPO. And uh I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'm going way out on a limb here. I think there is a way more than non-zero possibility that Anthropic delays it. I you know, they they scuttle it. Not forever. Uh maybe they'll do it in March or something like that, but uh it may well be that market conditions in November are such that they're like uh we're gonna wait, which would really freak people out because um uh the entire AI thing is so dependent upon anthropic and open AI bursting onto the scene as public companies and just um just uh you know printing money. Um there are a lot of things that have to go right for the core weaves and the blue al capitals and uh the um um semis the memory and all on and on and on to earn the valuations that they've been gifted. So true. Yeah. And Anthropic did, you probably heard that this week, I think on Wednesday, um Anthropic did their uh you know, kind of kimono open to investment bankers in terms of their um numbers, not the S1, but just kind of a thumbnail and you know, they leaked instantly and >> so not a road show, but just kind of talking about the company, >> right? Yeah. Giving the basics like here's the revenue, here's the growth. Um and they were fine. It wasn't like, you know, anything shocking. Uh, but you've got to believe that in the current circumstances, they're going to it's going to be as dalled up and positive as you could possibly get because there are a lot of intercomp deals going on to um sweeten uh the books. So, all I'm saying is that um if they come public and they just set the world on fire, I will be surprised. Um, that's the next big event in in the AI world. Um, let's look at a few other charts here. As I mentioned, um, I scured out of, uh, my quantum stuff yesterday morning real quick. And these aren't big positions at all, but I just wanted to just touch upon the fact that I have uh reshorted um uh ion uh as well as uh D-Wave that is QBTS. And each of these are down today somewhat 23%. And then um my favorite uh QBT which is quantum computing and this one is the only one with a really sporty uh pattern that I can point out. symmetric triangle clean symmetric triangles don't happen very often but this is this is definitely one of them so just wanted to u mention and a real favorite these days nothing to do with quantum but you know I know you've mentioned um seeate many many times um STX is really nice because it's got kind of a two for one pattern here uh one you have uh another symmetric triangle a smaller one but it's still clean and two which is kind of key for a stop-loss is this horizontal here, this price gap that took place between Wednesday and Thursday. And as we back up here, you you can see that Seagate over about a year just had this eyepopping and almost uninterrupted rise. And since that time, uh we have hammered out uh this nice triangle. We've broken it. We got below. We have our gap as of yesterday morning. And so I remain short this with a stop just above that price gap. >> Yeah, this is a good call out with this name. And like I said, I've talked about a lot. It's interesting. I mean, they're they're all right there, Tim. Like I was just looking as you were mentioning it. And a lot of these names have a similar if we can zoom in on the close close uh time period here. They're all down today, but they're not lower than yesterday yet. Yet, and is the key word there, >> right? Yeah. Yeah. That was, you know, it's funny because yesterday when we were talking, um, I was talking about, you know, hedging and going long, but my my voice probably wasn't packed with confidence cuz as we were talking, we we were just kind of teasing. It looked like it might just kind of like slump over and it didn't really get a firm footing until after we said goodbye. And then it it kind of you you could almost see it gaining confidence in itself. It got stronger and stronger throughout the day. So, it is important. uh people going to be watching yesterday's lows as as some kind of support. But, you know, the reason these are small positions and the reason I'm still not aggressively uh positioned is that, you know, my stops on this are set kind of wide in as much as it would have to violate that gap for me to get out of it. So, um yeah, somewhat speculative considering how low we've been beaten for the past couple of weeks. Um but we will see if it holds together and it's it's companion on this. I I'm not short this, but it's I usually mention it in the same breath is Western Digital WDC, which has its own cool little pattern right there. More of a distribution top. And as with STX, climb climb climb climb climb climb, climb, and then since then hammered out a nice pattern, and then in recent weeks, a nice slip lower. >> Um, and I don't know what what other uh charts you have, but I do want to get your thoughts on um on Tesla and and SpaceX. And I know you often have a lot of thoughts on there, but I mean we saw that that amazing video. Yes, >> I we went to dinner with friends last night and uh this is uh he's like, "Oh, did you see the flying car?" And um I I assumed he was talking about uh basically like Joby Aviation, you know, basically a giant drone you can sit in. And those are pretty those are pretty cool. But if you saw the video um of of the Tesla demo, uh it was like me, George Jetson. It was really amazing. >> Yeah. Right. >> Uh because I mean it's doing it's doing flips and it's like flying over a semi-truck and all this. Um it's >> And the other one when it went up the ramp and like you know that's the one that that really set everything on fire. But that one this one is amazing too. But the one that went up the ramp and then came down, I was like, "What?" >> Yeah. >> This as as I understand it. Um, so the original Tesla was a roadster. It was sort of a prototype. It was cool little sports car. I mean, to this day, it's still a really cool looking little vehicle, but it was sort of a sort of a concept test. Like this is this is an electric car that you don't have to charge every 20 miles. Um, and from the from the the Roadster then came the the you know the S and the three and the X and all that. But the new Roadster um has been promised for years and they took deposits on it years ago and people have been kind of frustrated with like when's it going to come out because if you've seen the designs it's just beautiful beautiful car and finally finally finally they demoed it last night and it's like you know not only is it gorgeous but it's like airborne. Um and they show this thing. >> What is going on in this picture? How is there a roadster but that shack in the back like what is that? Well, I I I can't see what you see. I'm just looking at my screen, so >> Oh, you couldn't? Oh, okay. >> Yeah. Show it again and I'll I'll look on our little thumbnail here and see if Great is the roster. Look at the house in the background. >> Um, well, actually, I may know what that is. Um, uh, yeah. So, well, >> it's the road. It's a roadster, is it? know the the friend the friend I was talking to last night was mentioning how when they set up this was down like in Waco Texas and when they set up shop um their first office building was a Winnebago um and so that's where they hold their really important meetings so it may be that I don't know but the uh just to be clear the flying car is not something you're going to stop into your Tesla dealer and ask for that option it was really more kind of showing off because I think they would have uh some legal issues with you you being frustrated with traffic and deciding to just screw this, >> you know, right? >> But no, what amazed me was that again it it wasn't a giant drone. It's literally like jet engines and you know the thing like 360ied its way to its destination. So really wild stuff. It's I mean it's cool. It's definitely got the huge cool factor. It's nothing that's going to change their revenue. Tesla's up a little right now. I remain short them. Um, as far as SpaceX goes, um, this, um, has been an interesting one, too, because, you know, we were stuck at 150 just day after day after day after day after day, just like it became just $150 stock. And then over two days, it went exploding higher. And on this day, um, as as much as I want SpaceX to to go up, uh, forever, uh, on this day, I was like, that's probably it because it's gone really far really fast and it's going to fall and watch 150 as support. It was a little nerve-wracking yesterday cuz it got actually down to 140, but it did firm up. And so, just as the ES has this um, deep affection for its horizontal, SpaceX also seems to find this equilibrium like at 150. I think we're going to be really stuck there until um something really fundamental changes like you know some big quarterly report or who knows but yeah it back to where we were. It's like a magnet. >> Yeah, it it does seem like that. Well, Tim, good to see you, sir. And uh thanks for your insights as always. Have a great weekend and we'll see you on the network later today. >> Okay, everybody. Thank you, Jamal. Bye-bye.