We've Reached a Major Inflection Point

Yeah. [music] [music] [music] [music] Heat. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I think markets are near an inflection point. We are slowly starting to price in another pause. Although still 50/50. So towards the next FOMC at the end of next month, we should see in my opinion a repricing in this direction. Of course, my opinion doesn't matter. That's why we say tell that to the bond market. Whichever one of these reprices will be what we see from the Fed. Bitcoin is possibly in the process of beginning a correction. I've been saying all dips of a buying. For me, the big question is, do we get a high or low pullback and then go on to a new bull market? If so, as Tony shows here, it would be super early relative to prior 4year cycle declines. This is actually right around the moment where we would expect to see the final leg lower based on historical cycle lengths. But there's a first time for everything, right? It could entirely be possible that this is the low. We just get the higher low and go. In either case, the next dip I again make the case should be for me to buy. So I don't really care if it's a higher low or a lower low. I'm just looking for that timing window to elapse so that I can have a tradable load to manage my risk around. Andrew's got a nice video here. I recommend you go to his ex profile and check it out. But he makes a pretty compelling case. based on the cycle count here for the weekly cycles split up by these half cycle bounces that this may be nothing more than a half cycle bounce before we ultimately head down for that fouryear cycle low. So it all comes down to whether or not we get that higher low or lower low here. In either case, I don't think it really matters to us. Something that does matter to me at least is we are now getting to the point in the cycle for the stock market that we have to start the next leg up pretty imminently. Otherwise, it's going to set up more of a distribution and rollover pattern seeking that fouryear cycle low. And there's nothing magic about these charts or targets. There's no certainties, not probabilities. There's only possibilities. Newbies can't really deal with anything but certainties. But one thing we know for sure is parabolic advances get broken. And when they do, we typically see 70ish% of a retrace. If that's the case for the NASDAQ, we could be looking at something like this all the way back to the 22 highs. I don't necessarily think we have to come this far back, but something like this is probably loading to get that fouryear cycle corrected. Meanwhile, we have hopped timelines and Kramer seems to be now on the same side as me. I think he's been right a few times of late. And I think he's right here, too. As weird as it is for me to say that, he thinks if we get more weak data, oil could go down and a bond short squeeze could actually occur. And I've been saying this for a while, right? I've been saying for a long time that we are probably in that capitulation phase seeking the 7 and 1 half year cycle in the bond market. We're looking for weekly cycle highs in the yields. And so is this a case of Kramma is going to be correct? I think so. And whilst every man and his dog seems to have reached a bullish extreme in terms of sentiment on yields going higher, very few people seem to be willing to entertain that this could actually be a top in the making for the yields. And if so, it could just look exactly like the 2018 midterm 10-year yield where we could be about to see something like this. It would certainly fit my base case. It would certainly fit the cycles as you can see right here. So, it shouldn't be too much longer before we get this. And I think this speaks to a major inflection point. If yields are going to roll over, if bonds are going to rally, if oil is going to continue to move lower into that yearly cycle low, gold has already shown us the path. It's already shown failed daily cycles and is now seeking a lower weekly cycle low below the current one. Stocks are due to drop imminently. The question really is does the extreme right translation continue first and then we drop or do we start to roll over from here. Notice how everything is in alignment apart from Bitcoin and Bitcoin. The only question is is the 4-year low in or is it to come? If it's in, then we'll see a higher low as I said earlier. And if it's to come, then we're soon going to sweep this low and be somewhere down here. Carrying on with the yields, notice right as the cycles are topping, right as the extremes have arrived in sentiment, we've also got the 10-year moving into the median line of a pitchfork with TLT due to find a major support level at the median line of this pitchfork. I still think this is the contrarian trade at the moment. Something I noticed about the sentiment extremes on this is I spent a long time talking about getting a sweep of these lows to complete the 7 and 1/2 year cycle. I spent a long time when we first started to get the sweep saying I didn't think this was enough of a sweep and we would probably need to see 78 to 80. That would give us a significant sweep and one that looks right to my eye based on the totality of my experience. And no matter how many hundreds of times I said 78 to 80, once we broke through 80 and started to head for 78, I got so many comments saying it's breaking down, this is super bearish, blah blah blah. And to me, that just confirms that we are reaching a bearish sentiment extreme down here, right into the cycle low window. So again, I make the case we are living through a major inflection point in markets right now. And although I've been calling for this, and this is still my base case until proven otherwise, the differential between credit spreads and equity vault is one of the widest we've seen in a long time. Credit spreads typically frontr run equity volatility, which begs the question, is a huge VIX spike loading? If so, it would therefore only make sense that we are in the process of finding a top. Now, it doesn't mean we couldn't have this blowoff top first. Given how right translated we are in this current 4-year cycle for the stocks, any time between now and the end of the year should be a topping window for the stock market. So, we do have to be on guard here for trend line breakdowns, failed daily cycles, and those sneaky distributive type sideways looks that we tend to get in the stock market before they roll over. Now, with that said, one of the reasons I'm still relatively confident besides the sentiment of getting the higher push first in the stock market is under the hood, the mags are still breaking out of a base and looking to move higher. The semis are still pushing on and making higher highs here, leaving behind a weekly cycle bottom. We're still pretty early in the weekly cycle. So, so long as this can continue, and so long as the MAGs breakout can continue, I would argue there's enough fuel under the hood to continue to push these equity markets higher. But again, and it's important to realize this, we're already overdue for a top in the stock market. We should really have started to seek a four-year cycle low months ago. Meanwhile, as I said, gold is seeking a four-year cycle low, lower than the current set of lows late this year. We know oil is also in the process of seeking a yearly cycle low late this year or early next year. We know the yields in the bond market are doing a similar thing. And so all that's really left is to figure out whether or not Bitcoin is going to just set the mother of all traps here or whether it gives us just a higher low to buy into. But in either case, all dips are for buying here. I still think a little bit patience is going to go a long way. MSTR has caught the fractal back up. Okay, so seeking some sort of weekly cycle low pullback and then the plan all along. That's why this has been cued here is to get the allocation. I want to also point out if I hide this fractal momentarily from MSDR, this is still lower highs and lower lows, okay? Which means until we get a higher low come in followed by a higher high, we do still have to be open to another lower low here. And I know that's pretty contrary and I know a lot of people are not really considering this. A lot of people would much rather say people are sidelined or missed the move or missed the bottom. But there are subtle tales in many of these charts that they are not yet done carving out a bottom. Bottoms are a process. This could of course be one of the base cases which was that we form this inverse head and shoulders and go. That's long been a base case and so far it doesn't seem to be doing anything out of the ordinary. We're just missing the completion of this next shoulder. Something like this weekly cycle low and go. And I don't think anyone will be complaining about getting in here. But note the theme. The cycles are showing us that we are approaching a major inflection point. And it is soon going to be time to number one avoid the headlines and the rhetoric and the narrative and number two start seeking for confirmed high probability lows to manage the risk around. I'm your boy Camel. If you want to get started with leving up your edge, click here in about 10 seconds. And until next time, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. >> Camel finance. [music and singing] Rocking the market with his contrarian screams like a pro. No fear, [singing] no shame. sticking to [music] his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance [music] got the market key [music] ride.