WHICH MEGA-CAP STOCK IS BEST POSITIONED? (07/15) Stock Market Analysis

Blue cloud trading through the night. >> Welcome back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wapner front and center this hour. Money into the mega caps. Just as Carl was saying, it's Apple, all of the hyperscalers ramping as we come on the air. We're trading the markets with the investment committee. Joining us for the hour today, Joe Teranova, Steve Weiss, Bill Baroo, Rob Seatson. Let's go to the scorecard here. I'll tell you what we're we're seeing today. And uh yes, the NASDAQ's only up by one quarter of 1% in what is a green across the board tape. But let's look at some of the mega caps. Take a look at Apple. Look at Microsoft Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, 3% thereabouts for everything uh in that group. We weren't going to start here uh today and then we saw this big move in all these names and said, well, let's start at this place in the market. This seems to be the pattern for the month of July. We have these rotations that's allowing the overall market to inch its way higher. But every time the momentum factor maybe takes a couple of steps backward, we see capital coming out of memory semis semiconductor equipment. They're finding value opportunities in the mega caps. And it's interesting because 3 weeks ago we were hearing people suggesting that the mag 7 was the lag 7. They they've certainly defeated that description and right now they are fighting for leadership once again. You could never count out these trillion dollar corporations with staggering revenue growth. They're breaking out. Apple's breaking out. And I said yesterday, I think Nvidia is going to follow. It's down today. It had a strong afternoon yesterday. It's going to participate as well here in the coming weeks. Steve, I mean, they're they're breaking out now. Let's see, you know, if it's durable because there you there have been some head fakes in this group of late, but you know, week to date, they're all looking good. Uh Meta is up 15% over the last month and it's really a story across the board led by this run that Apple's had. >> Yep. And and I also think that uh Meta has been positively complicit in it when they came out and said we're loading up on all this you know extra compute these data centers that got 33 now or when the one in Canada will be finished that'll be 33. So now they're the market's saying, "Hey, let's go from the providers of AI solutions because we're hearing about price cuts coming from China, you know, in terms of their AI models, uh, versus the tokens here. They're very expensive. So let's see now who we could take advantage of." And they're taking that Meta's announcements or what we've heard about Meta as positive that they're going to generate a return. Now, to me, this is like Groundhog Day. One day the market's up and yesterday the headlines were all semis are back. Semis are back. And then we're taking a look today and guess what? Semis are gone again. So you see a series of lower highs when this is happening. And to me that once again signals and the reason I exited Micron is that uh we're closer to the end of the AI trade. Not AI fundamentals but AI trade. So I think it's going to be difficult. >> Closer to the end of the AI trade. not uh in terms of the the outperformance of the stocks. The fundamentals and the revenues for those companies will continue to grow. That spending is far from over, but I think the market's earlier than anybody expected. >> Yeah, Paul Tudtor Jones came out and said, right, you got another year or two, right? But now the market all knows that. So, they're getting out earlier. Well, I mean, you know, David Solomon was talking about early innings of this >> just this phenomenon really that we that we that we've seen. >> I'm not saying it won't be back. I'm saying right now that's the markets. >> There's there's the semis trade which seems impossible right now. Like good luck if you're trying to figure out directionally where the semis are going because as we've seen the swings are huge and the swings seem to have no stickiness. what is one day up could tomorrow be down as much as we've seen the up and therein lies the issue with that I wonder if some of that is why the mega caps are seeing the money come back once again viewed as a safety place within the AI orbit you know people still think there's a lot of juice to be squeezed from these names I thought it was really telling and I loved hearing from Warren Buffett today with Becky I think anytime you get to hear from him uh especially these days is a treat and the fact that he said he initi appreciated Bergkshire Hathaway's investment in Alphabet as we all wondered you know well was it was it him was it not said he made a mistake not investing in Google the company's now quote more likely to be a winner based on its record uh I don't think it's an accident that that revelation came today with Becky that he made those comments and that the stock is doing what it's doing >> you know that's our largest largest overweight in the mega caps I think that you know it has some of the most attractive characterist istics. You could go back a year and they were being indicted as being taken over by chat and and anthropic and their business being flawed. So, you know, you're going to have opportunities in these names, especially well- capitalized names. I think it's interesting that Apple's the most expensive of all these names right now, all the mega cap names. It's certainly leading the bunch. I think Josh has a great thesis, Josh Brown, that that is the consumer entry into AI. If they want to get to the consumer, they have to go through a device. And that's why you're seeing so much energy being expended by the open AIs in the meta to develop their own type of a product in the space. I want to go back to what Steve said because I think it's really important. We try to rhyme with history as it relates to the semi-names. And what has happened is these volatile reactions that we've seen have been a result of something that might have happened in 2000 where fundamentals didn't deteriorate to a year after price deteriorated. And so every time there's a scare, people run for the exits because they know price leads in that segment. So far, you should believe that they are going to be innocent until proven guilty and be a buyer of those dips because you have enormous visibility now that you may have not had then multiple years out. And so, listen, hyperscalers are viewed as a hedge to that. So, you're going to see the hyperscalers rally every time this momentum group sells off. I think you got to own both. I think the David what David Solomon said is right. This a AI ecosystem is under a long buildout. No one is slowing their their jets on that. They're flying full speed into it and the beneficiaries are going to continue to be the beneficiaries for a while. >> I I think you have to like Apple here a lot. I mean, this is you're getting the best of both worlds. And this is a breakout. I think it go to 370, you know. >> Well, Josh Brown, remember talking 400, >> right? 37 400 looking at the range that that we've had recently and you're kind of giving that 100% extension, but you you get the consumer dominating uh front end. Um I think that's terrific, the best of both worlds because you're also getting the the the anti-capex trade here and that's why the multiple going higher. So I I really like what we're seeing here with Apple. It's something that we've leaned into over the last two months. June 12th, we added more Apple in our concentrated portfolio. It's our number three name in our main portfolio. We're going to let this thing ride and I think there's we can see in our base our base house case in in the back half of the year is Max 7 is going to outperform. I talked about it on the on the show uh last week as well and you know In Nvidia is a name too that I I like a lot here. has been kind of consolidating. U I mean your the free cash flow there is is becoming amazing relative to the other mag 7s and if it wasn't a $5 trillion company might even think that they take that thing private at some point but at at I mean it's at the this this size that's obviously not on the table. The one thing I I would look to mention what Steve touched on with with the memory names is Micron in some of those names. Yeah, maybe they got ahead of their skis. Micron is our largest position here. Um, and it's just because we've been B, you know, cost bas is like $70. But at this point, I think that you're seeing it come in a little bit. You're seeing some leverage unwind out of South Korea. You're seeing some of this trade just maybe kind of get tossed aside. And that's fine heading into because a lot of them report in the back half of earning season. And I'd like to see them not at the highs going into that because we saw what happened uh just over the last few weeks. They have these terrific reports and then the stocks sell off. So I think yeah, Scott, to your point, I think that that is right. You're seeing a lot of rotation into the Mag 7 that's coming out of some of these high-f flyier AI infrastructure names. >> How about this? Remember leading into the SpaceX IPO, part of the narrative was while the mega caps were weak pretty substantially into that money's coming out of mega caps and it's reading itself to go into SpaceX, which it did on the open. Well, look at SpaceX because now it has traded below its IPO price for the very first time. Is there a coincidence that money is all of a sudden now going back into the mega caps? >> It's a role reversal in some respects, don't you think? >> Well, it's it's first of all, as it relates to to SpaceX, I think a lot of the appreciation at SpaceX was built upon scarcity in the equity market. The debt market really has been the adult in the room for SpaceX and the debt offering in the secondary market was not strong. You saw spreads widen and concurrent with that you've seen the equity in SpaceX collapse. I don't have a position so I'm not going to speak to the fundamental future of where this price goes. But I think it's right to point out what is happening right now as it relates to momentum funds. First of all, you have the seasonality of July. So, we're beginning to see liquidity weaken. We're seeing volumes begin to decline somewhat. In while that's going on, you're building momentum in an area of the market that's proven itself over the last several years. The Mag 7 from a valuation perspective for those that care. They were ridiculously cheap except for Apple. You saw Nvidia's valuation at a level it hasn't been in the last seven years. And there's the opportunity to rotate as you saw the memory names like Micron go parabolic. If we could show a chart of Micron. Micron's down close to 10% today. I think the SKH Highex okay u US listing really exemplified that maybe there's just too much supply as it relates to the memory name for the marketplace to digest. You have SK Highix down 12%. So you broke the fever in memory. It doesn't mean it eliminates the fundamentals for memory, but it means that capital is going to go to other places. And while this is all occurring, you're in the middle of earning season. And guess what? You have these money center banks reporting historic record quarters. >> Let's go back to SpaceX. Um, what do you what do you make of that move now below for the first time the 135 IPO price? Remember, this was a set price. >> There was no range. It was a set price of 135, 20% on the opening day, what was deemed to be a sweet spot, right? >> And here we go. It's been on almost steady decline since, give or take. But here we find ourselves. What do you make of that? >> So, so you had asked me that day, the day of the offering, because we were investors privately at various uh levels across time and we even had some investors participate in the LBO. Our advice to them and our advice that day was there's likely to be an opportunity to be a better buyer. We didn't think it would come this quickly. We thought it would come a little more after their inclusion into the indices and as lockups started to release because we understand the characteristics of those lockups coming off or how some of the special purpose vehicles that were set up were going to be paid their economics. Now, what supported that and we weren't sure how far it would drop below the price is a it's an unbelievable business, right? B, there's an evangelistic following of this uh of this entrepreneur. >> Let me stop you real quick. When you said you didn't think it would be this quickly that it would drop like this, why do you think it is? >> Um, I don't know if it's a rotation. I think it's caught up in the moment. Let Let me take a step back on that. There is a lot of hot money in this market. You have levered ETFs on Micron. You have levered ETFs on SKH Highex. You have tons of people pay playing fast money moves and they're in and they're out quickly. So when something, you know, isn't working, you're going to see it rerate much more quickly in those spaces where you've seen parabolic moves and and this was this was parabolic. So I think that might have something to do with it. I don't know that I lend too much to the supply of this these uh issues because we're not there's not an extraordinary amount of supply in the market. You realize that companies are being taken out. There's much less public float broadly than there was years ago. >> It's a difference of sectors though. >> Are we gaming out like lockup stuff? We're just trying to get ahead the market trying to get ahead of all that. >> I I think it's kind of symptomatic of the market and short- termism. So the weakest holders of any company, of any stock, are the new holders cuz they have no history with it. So this is all new money that came into this. And a lot of money, as we saw, came in on the IPO day. So they don't want to be underwater. A lot of those that came in that day sold as it moved up. We started seeing over 200. I traded, lost a little money, but not a lot. And I just think it's the unwind of the momentum names that we're continuing to see. So, I don't know if it's anything to SpaceX other than SpaceX is a faith stock. Yes, tremendous business, but you can't value it. There's no valuation you could put on this. And yet, we know they're spending a lot of money and we don't know when they'll be profitable. In terms of the overall market, I think you see shortim short termism as well because we have real issues with Iran that will take a look at the numbers today. PPI came down nicely. All the inputs that drove it lower were oil. Those have already reversed. >> Well, oil's only back to where it was the middle of J of of June. So, it's not like it's gasoline is back above. >> Bill, you're missing the point. It was down today because oil is lower, right? Oil was lower. That influenced the number. What I'm saying is momentum to oil is higher. And with everything that's going on in Iran, it's going to drive it higher as well. And that will reverse the decline inflation we saw today and tomorrow. It's not where oil was a month ago or even three months ago where it all the core all the core PPI was softer too. So I I don't I don't buy that narrative. I don't buy that narrative. You look at all the you just look at the core number X energy. >> What leads into CPI? What's the leading indicator of CPI? >> One of them is the PPI we're talking about today which is the market. >> Well, I want to talk about ASML uh rather than go deeper into that. >> Um what are we to make of of Rob? you own the stock this price action today. So it was a nice gainer, wasn't it? Um there's the intraday which sort of gives you, you know, some green on the screen. They hiked their forecast. They have strong chip demand. Stock goes down by 2%. Is that just because as Wolf talks about today, semis in general have gone from parabolic to chaotic and this is a uh an evidence point of the chaos in this group. I mean, the key takeaway to me is it seems like the markets want to want to sell this group because they increased fullear guidance, raised it by 15%. And now they're expecting 30% uh year-on-year revenue growth for years to come. The company has incredible pricing power. There's virtually no way that you can make a chip without this advanced etching that they do, the lithography. So, they are the ultimate bottleneck. Maybe it's the stock's a little pricey relative to history. Maybe it's that it's up 70% year to date and some people are taking money off the table, but this is a good earnings report that we saw today. Nothing wrong with the earnings report for ASML. Nothing was wrong with the earnings report for Micron. What is wrong? >> Nothing was wrong with Broadcom. Remember that? >> Correct. >> Arguably the first sort of rumble in the space right? >> Yes. And you know what was wrong? The expectations. And that's basically what price is reacting to. Very lofty expectations across the board for semis and memory. And despite really good earnings, there's just not enough incremental room to advance the stock higher based on those high expectations. So we hit IBM. You've had a chance to sleep on this now and uh sort of digest what happened to that stock yesterday, the worst day ever. It's worth another check-in as it gets downgraded at Oenheimer today to perform. Um, that's after the pre-announcement. If you were looking for a rebound today, you're not getting it. Is there a statement in that? >> Down 25% or whatever it was today. I think the narrative's changed a bit, at least near-term. Well, there there there's no question they're seeing a reset because, you know, it it's clear uh that their ability to leverage AI versus being disrupted by it is is being challenged. I still think it has to do with redirection of corporate spending into other areas, which is why you've seen the the the the cyber security companies do so well. And so who knows maybe this quarter you can see see more of a pickup. I I you know the spill over into things like now has not been too traumatic. Uh so I don't think this is a whole sell every part of the software ecosystem. I think what it's done is created halves and have nots and IBM admittedly said they stubbed their toe here. And so uh I think they can get back on track. Remember we're still up 60% even after this uh even after But you don't want to come back a month from now and say, "Hey, we're still up 40%." Hey, we're still up 30%. There in lies issues like this. You know what I'm saying? >> Fair. Fair. And we continue to be we continue to be patient with it because all the metrics meet except the one except the uh the disruption that we had this quarter where they miss. >> I think we really are in this environment now where if there is a winner, it does start to come at the expense of others. And we're seeing that with the cyber yesterday and IBM that was the imp implication. I know Sarah Eisen hit on that pretty you know with Arvin Krishna u the other thing too is it's holding back this a lot of the story is the compute I mean we are constrained on compute and the hyperscalers are trying to spend on to to raise compute but there needs to be a a clear path to more compute not headwinds and until that happens we could be going through this up and down phase where there's good days and then the next day is a bad day and that's kind of how we I see it right now >> we'll see how it turns out in earnings so what's really happening as they point out >> yeah right there's a there's a sort of der of information. >> Exactly. We we just don't know like how have the spending patterns changed. So our companies allocating they have finite technology budgets. Where are they transitioning those budgets and I think it's pretty clear they've been going away from software to what's going to drive their AI performance. >> Can we go so I just want to mention you guys mentioned cyber crowd strike new record high today. I mean that's been obviously in the spotlight even more so perhaps after IBM. So what we were going to begin with today until we saw these mega caps starting to ramp into the program is the near record buying in financials. Okay, it's the best performing group over the past month. So let's take a look at those. That's according to BFA's flow show. You have the had the biggest buying in that group according to that uh flow since 2020. It was a record high. Goldman was ripping yesterday on its earnings. That was a a blowout report and a blowout stock move. Given a smidge back today, but it's insignificant really considering what the stock has done. JPM, Bank of America, record highs. Morgan Stanley the latest to knock it out of the park with their own earnings report. The shares a little underwhelming. Uh it was red, turned green. Look at MS if you could for me cuz I'm not sure where it is now. Uh it gives you an idea a little bit of the volatility in here. So it's it's negative. Uh again, what do you what do you think of this? money move into the financials. >> I think it's going to continue. I focus on position. I focus on sentiment. Sentiment was depressed coming into the second quarter for financials. There was disappointment. There was high expectations at the beginning of the year and they didn't meet the expectations. If you remember, we were sitting here in April talking about really strong quarters across the board for money center banks. The reaction was negative to that. So, you have a tremendous opportunity to rebuild that sentiment, to rebuild positioning. That's exactly what's going on. It's one of the reasons why I tried to get in front when we were out at the US Open of buying JP Morgan on the anticipation that this in fact could happen. I think it continues. I think it spreads throughout the financial sector into the regional banks. It's not just isolated to money banks. Is this the group now to own? >> I I think selectively. Yeah. >> You still have to be selective of the of the big banks. >> Yeah. I I prefer I mean I prefer Goldman obviously. That's what I own. I think they're the most leveraged to the underwriting to the M&A cycle and I think the market's basically okay here and it being okay you're going to see a lot more of that. Look, you've got open AI, you got Enthropic. At some point they're not going to be able to raise the capital they've been raising non-stop. So they need the IPO market. Now they may think have second thoughts about it after looking at SpaceX. I don't think they will. So that's going to continue. That's going to drive that. is going to drive more M&A when they have a public company stock. So to me, Goldman and the humility that they have, I mean I >> Yeah. >> Well, I'm not talking about email change, but the humility they have, okay, >> where they're saying that the battle's ahead of us still and that it's one day at a time. I think it's impressive given the quarter they put up. >> I would add that rate volatility is a tailwind. I think the steepening yield curve under Wars is what we're going to see. That's also going to be a tailwind. But in the near term, I would add that the when these banks come out with terrific earnings reports, we see them higher for a day or two, a week later, they are typically lower. So if you looking to be buying banks right here, be patient. I think you'll find some better spots. Talk about the equities. >> No one's even mentioned equities trading. In Morgan Stanley's case, up 69%. I don't remember off the top of my head what it was for the others that have already reported, but it was it was as much of a wow >> factor in many of the other names, too. You own Morgan Stanley. >> Yeah, we added it on the show not long ago cuz we wanted to go overweight financials coming into this. We we actually trimmed a little WFC kind of going into it because of the more capital markets exposure you have with Morgan Stanley in addition their their their banking franchise and that wealth management franchise 14% year-on-year growth and and I think what was the number on net new uh net new money? It was it was blindingly impressive. Uh 150% year-on-year net new money >> and that strong environment is good for the asset managers. Take a look at Black Rockck. If we could show that chart year to date. >> Black Rockck's only up 2% year to date. So the move that I was talking about anticipating for JP Morgan, you're at the same moment where you're beginning at the initial stages to build momentum. I like Black Rockck. I don't know if anyone's willing to step out and take a chance on the private equity names. I said last week I think Blackstone would be the one name that's up about 10% here so far in the month of July. I think Blackstone's probably seen the worst target moves today. Just real quick, uh Goldman 1325. That's the high on my list of many calls today on that name in terms of prices. Wells goes there. That's uh Mike Mayo, which is noteworthy in and of itself. JP Morgan from Mayo also goes to 375. The highest I have in front of me is Barclay's going to 420. So there is some renewed bullishness. There's no doubt about that out of the financial space. Coming up, we have committee moves. Steve White selling one stock, reports earnings this week. So he's doing that ahead of that. >> All right. So that was the first clip uh from CNBC. We're going to take a look at a number of the stocks that they discussed. There were some stocks that were discussed on the show that I'm not covering here. Those may be in my portfolio. If you guys want to get access to those, do the following. Go to my YouTube homepage, BlueCloud Trading. Select the join button. It's right next to subscribe. You'll be able to get uh get access to these member only videos that you see below and uh my entire portfolio. Hit the join button. Like I say, click the BlueCloud trader level or BlueCloud legend level member to get those videos. You will not be able to see them under BlueCloud supporter. All right. And uh let's get back to what we're just talking about. So, there's about 18 stocks we're going to cover and it's combination of stocks and ETFs that they just talked about. Let's start off with Apple. Apple had a big day today. It was up 4.01%. And what I like about this particular chart, as we were talking about yesterday and the day before, price was was stalling at that 31740 level. We were waiting for confirmation. What's interesting is check out what happened today. And let me zoom in so you can see it closely. Price essentially gapped up. Okay, so it gapped right above the 31740 and then the buyers stepped in and they start started pushing it further up. If we can see all that action here, if we switch it to the 3minut chart, the market is now closed. It's after 4 p.m. So I can show you exactly what's going on. Uh Apple closed up 4.01% for the day. So here's the action today, the 15th, July 15th. As you can see, the gap up right there. Price continued moving up. There was a little bit of a um just a small little pause right there before price broke through that level. Continued up some more creating another higher higher low from the prior one. Another higher low right here. And then we basically kind of stabilized I think and created a little bit of a consolidation stage at the top. But that's a pretty big move 4.01%. And if you look at that daily chart, we now you know are looking very very bullish here with Apple. In fact, the ad the ADX uh also started moving up today. The positive DI was already above the negative DI. So, that's all good for Apple. If you look at the weekly chart, it's also now clearly above that 31740. Now, the question is, will it still remain above by the end of this week, Friday, right? So, uh we'll we'll see. We'll be watching it. Um out of the 18 stocks that I'm going to be talking about, this is just four that hit the blue flag this week, uh or today, sorry. uh and it's basically Crowdstrike, JP Morgan, and XLF along with Apple. What does that mean? It means that they're these particular ticker symbols are bullish on both the weekly time frame and the daily. So, let's look at Crowd Strike next. And let's start off with the weekly chart actually. So, what I like about this one too, price is above the moving averages, right? So, we've got price here above and we're using the Ichimoku indicator. We've got price above the 9 period, the 26 period, and price is obviously above this Ichimoka cloud here. And the cloud is looking bullish for the future. So, how do we know when that's the that's the case? It's basically when we see the Senko span A, this light colored blue line that you see right there, above the Senko span B, the purple line. And so, that's a bullish cloud right there on the weekly chart. You look at the daily chart, we've got the same thing here. Price is above the two moving averages. this lagging line here, Chico span. Okay, that's above the candle 26 periods ago on the daily and it's above the 26 um period in the past weekly. So, the last 26 weeks, right? White line represents again the current price projected 26 periods ago in a line form. So, that's very bullish. I like crowd strike. Uh was it down today? Yes, it was down 1.88%. So, it did actually like yesterday I mentioned how price barely barely closed above the 20950 resistance level. And that's not a very good sign when you don't see a nice conclusive breakout like we did here with Apple where it actually gapped up and then started moving up. So, Crowd Strike, it just barely made it. It was not It looked to me like the bears were really fighting it off here. And so in a scenario like this, you can't be super confident that it's definitely going to to move up uh or there's a high probability it's going to move up. So it did gap up slightly and then the rest of the day the bears took control again. So here's the three-minute chart. We can see what happened here with this little pop up here. We had a shooting star. That's a long wick with a small body right there. That candle that you see right there, price dropped and then started moving sideways the rest of the day. So yeah, crowd strike uh right now I wouldn't be adding a position just based on this particular candle. I want to see a more conclusive break above the 20950 uh JP Morgan also. So yesterday we talked about this bullish engulfing pattern. It's uh where price actually gapped down came back up engulfed the prior small little red candle. It also got above this symmetrical triangle. So closed above it and as I said there was that was more bullish than bearish. price gapped up, got above that 34345 level. That's good. The only problem is we have another reversal candle. That's a dogee that you see right there. That's when the opening price and closing price basically the same level. The wick at the top represents the high of the day. The wick at the bottom represents the low of the day. All right? And we can see all that in the 3minut chart, right? So gapped up and it just moved sideways the pretty much from the opening price to the closing price. Right? It was very very close. So let's look at the next one. XLF on the weekly chart. That's the financials ETF. That one's up 5659 uh is the level that it uh basically uh needs to close above and it's it closed at 5656 just three pennies under it. Found resistance at that prior high from January 9th, 2026. So again, it's just basically a wait and see approach here that I would take. Uh overall I'm more bullish than bearish obviously because of the fact that we're above the cloud and all the moving averages are in the correct order on the weekly. Same thing here on the daily. But those wicks all those represent basically is a piercing right price reached that high. It got above it temporarily and then the bears pushed it right back under that level. So it was like sort of like popping its head up above the water and then boom back under. Let's look at the rest of these. Now, the rest of these are something off technically on either the weekly or the daily chart. Therefore, they don't get a blue flag. Okay, the blue flag uh are the more higher probability trades. Amazon, it was up 3.02% today, but as you can see, we're still inside the cloud. That's uh we have a bearish cloud here. That's when the single span A is under the single span B. That's the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it's actually looking really bullish here for Amazon because we broke above that 9 period. Okay. So, I like to use more put more emphasis on the weekly chart as far as um getting a a clearer direction outlook of where the stock is, but the and the daily has been moving up since this low here. It's moved up about 12.2% or so from the low. It's looking good. It's looking it's moving in the right direction. The directional movement index is confirming that here with the ADX moving up while the green line, the positive DI9 is moving up and the negative DI9 is moving down. So, Amazon's looking interesting. Um, but it's going to it's going to reach some resistance very soon here. It's going to reach resistance around the where the cloud is and so we'll see if it can penetrate that cloud. We need some we need some confirmation uh as far as I'm concerned for Amazon. ASML. All right. Uh we had a negative crossover here today. So, although this stock was up 2.31%, you can see how um it gapped up. it created what's called a hanging man pattern and that's a negative pattern. Um, it also closed right under that 26 period. So, I wouldn't be adding a position here. If you look at the weekly though, very strong. So, again, the weekly is really important to to pay attention to. Broadcom, this one here a little bit weaker because it's been stuck underneath the uh 9 period here for a little while. But if you look at the daily chart, it's also re-entering the cloud. So, that's a good sign. And that's a pos positive sign, but it's still not quite there yet. BLK, Black Rockck Incorporated. Now, this one here gapped up. You can see here on the daily chart, up 6.61%. Basically popped right above that 200 day as well. So, it took out a lot of resistance here. It took out the resistance of the cloud itself. All right. And then also the 200. If we look at the future cloud that also turned bullish today with the single span A crossing back above the single span B the directional movement index looks good but what does the weekly chart look like on as I'm sorry on black rockck it's stuck right inside the cloud still so we don't have double confirmation yet drumm is roundtill memory ETF this one is still under the n period three weeks in a row now down 6.31% here's a daily chart for you entering the cloud not a sign. Google on the other hand broke through this trend line. So if we look at the high of this candle and the high of that candle. Okay, draw a line. You see the price breaking through. What else happened today? Google actually had the ADX moving up slightly. I mean it's very very slight. You can hardly see it, but it is slightly up. Green line is above red line. Volume is about almost double the yesterday's volume and it was up 3.17%. And so I kind of like what I'm seeing here with the with Google. It still has resistance though around 379. That's where the top of the cloud is on the weekly chart. We're back above the 9 period here. Let's see if we can close above that 9 period on the weekly on Friday. IBM yesterday had a big drop, right? So here's the daily uh chart right here. We saw the gap down and now it's continuing its drop. So that's not a good sign. As I mentioned before, it's never a good idea to be adding positions when price is under the cloud. Why? because we don't know exactly when that decline is going to end right there. The bears have taken control here and so there's a continuation to the downside right now. I would hold off on IBM. Meta uh on the other hand gapped up not recently, basically pretty recently back on July 10th and stayed above that 200. Uh I like what I'm seeing here with Meta on the daily chart. We see the cloud turning bullish. ADX is moving up and so yeah, it also it does have some resistance. Let me let's throw on the resistance level that I see the most closest resistance level. It's this particular candle right here. The high is 69152. So, we are really close to that level. Okay, that's about just 1.4% away. So, it could stall there potentially. Here's a weekly chart. We're still uh we we still have we broke through the cloud, which is good, but the faster moving average here is under this lower one. The cloud is still bearish technically. So, we don't have a lot of confirmation. We haven't taken out this high here either. Okay, Microsoft was up 2.78%. Here's the weekly chart, breaking back above that 200, but it's under the cloud. On the daily chart, we're also under the cloud. That's bearish territory. Micron is under the moving averages and we had a negative crossover here and the white line is currently inside the candle. So that's also bearish but it could bounce right at the cloud. I just wouldn't add positions here yet. Here's the weekly chart still declining, you know, four weeks in a row. Nvidia today actually got back above the 9 period on the weekly, but we need to wait until Friday for confirmation on because this candle is still forming on the daily chart. It's still inside the cloud. We're getting closer and closer. Maybe we'll see a breakout. I'd like to see it get above this trend line as well. That would be even more confirmation. All right. SKHY is another stock they talked about. There's not a lot of uh data here yet because, you know, basically it was on uh Friday, July 10th that this uh became a public company. Opened at 170, right? And it's currently at 17646. Let's switch it to a shorter time frame so we can get more information because this is very very messy the way the way it looks right now. So let's look at a 30 minute. Even the 30-inut doesn't have enough data. So let's go to a 10-minute on this one. So this is what it looks like on a 10-minute chart. We can see a little bit more what's happening with the Ichimoku indicator. It's currently under the cloud on the 10-minute. You switch it to a fivem minute, you know, we've um we had a nice little pop here and then it's been just uh uh it's inside the cloud. So there's no clear direction and it was down 9% today. Let's look at the next one. SMH is an ETF for the semiconductors. It's currently still under that 9 period. All right. So I don't see Nvidia basically um moving without this ETF. Or maybe it will be Nvidia that actually helps to push this ETF back up. We'll see. On the weekly chart, it uh it's still inside this consolidation box. On the daily chart, we're still under the 26 period and the 9 period, but finding support right at the cloud. So, maybe we'll get a bounce. Uh, SPCX, SpaceX. Let's take a look at this one. So, let's start off. As you, as you know, there's not a lot of data here. Again, this particular stock was uh introduced to the to the markets on June 12th, so where it went public. Let's switch it to a 30 minute for more for more information. So you can see how initially of course most stocks when they go public they tend especially when with such uh notoriety there and Elon Musk behind it price jumped right but ever since then it's basically stayed under the moving averages under the cloud. There was a moment here briefly where it got above the cloud on the 30-inut chart. It was just a short-lived little pop. it continued to drop and as you can see there's still not this is not the time to be adding positions in SPCX if the 30-inut chart doesn't give you a head like a you know a bullish sign I don't know you know why take that chance basically it looks to me like it's an embedded decline right now all right now what we're going to do is we're going to watch one more clip from CNBC all right and then I'll do the follow-up technical analysis on those stocks and then I'll also cover the indices right so as you know I always cover the spy, the Q's, the Dow, the Russell, VIX, Euro stocks, gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and copper. So, let's let's go ahead and watch that next clip. >> Welcome back. A new committee move to tell you about. Uh, you've been negative on this name, I think, for a while. It's Netflix. Yeah. >> Which now you're finally just out of, right? >> I'm just out of I sold a lot of it down, as I've mentioned on this show, and here are my concerns. streaming has gotten more competitive not just from Paramount Time Warner but you see product being offered everywhere and they seem to be trying to find a lever for growth. First of all time the Warner uh brothers acquisition saying you get then the rumors of Lionsgate and now reselling other streaming subscriptions on their side is the talk. So you only do that when when you see growth slowing down. It's not expensive but the growth's not going to be there. So, I do have concerns going to the quarter. I didn't sell it for this quarter because I think the stock's pretty depressed and and it's and if you look at at the odds, the odds are more that it'll trade up because after they missed a quarter, they usually bounce back the next. But it was more look, it's small enough position now. Not been a great position for me lately versus when I owned it last year and got out and came back and I'm just, you know, hoarding capital cash right now. >> Give me a couple years, two, three years on this, guys. Please. Uh, sentiment. It's incredible. >> Yeah. >> How sentiment has turned. >> You own it. >> We do. We bought it recently on the latest dip. You've been paid to buy these dips in the in this name. Uh, as Steve said, it is cheap. There's a valid concerns around saturation, competition, uh, stickiness of their content, slowing subscriber growth. But let's not forget this company is expected to generate 15 billion in free cash flow this year. Okay? They have the lowest content spend per subscriber, which means they can dive into sports. They have the optionality to do that and drive more growth. They have been incredible at engineering that I'm willing to be patient to wait for that. >> This is a number. Give me that chart back guys, please. The three-year cuz this is to your example. I forgot which one we were talking about before, but the lower high risk, right? Trending lower. You get a little bit of a move up and then you start moving lower again. >> 300 million users still growing, driving more users, driving more content. I think they're going to be fine. >> If you take a look at the bounce after last quarter, um, and when they did not get Warner, the stock moved up. I don't know why it didn't hold there. Frankly, it should have. Well, that's the the biggest, I guess, mystery in some respects >> given what the narrative was when the bidding war was happening that there was, I think, a better view from at least those in our orbit on this program that if they don't get the asset, it's better for the stock. >> Exactly. >> And it did jump >> and then it was wiped. >> Yeah. and and and one of the reasons why I bought it uh was because you've got a you've got a debt constrained competitor in in Paramount, right? We're seeing that. So their their leverage is is significant too significant for this industry. How much new content can they buy? >> Who was it yesterday? I can't remember either who who had the call that you know asking the question whether Disney should get out of the streaming business altogether. It used to be, you know, Disney can't compete if maybe nobody can compete with what Netflix has built. >> Yeah. >> They have the pricing power in the way that others don't, right? They they raise their prices. It has had no impact on the stock at that moment when the new when the news hits. There's there's no negative move in in Netflix when they when they raise prices. In fact, the stock generally goes up because we say on this program and others, well, they they're one of the few who has pricing power. >> Yeah. I mean, my market on the earnings report is 6870 on the downside, 85 on the upside, up slightly more on the upside, but I just still got out. >> Netflix has lost market share over the last several years to likes of Amazon, to likes of Apple TV, to likes of Paramount. That's just statistically factual people >> who who are all not all but who many as was just pointed out are going to struggle with the investments in new content that they can make. >> Okay. >> It's a lot of lot of spending a lot of sports. >> I mean they have the free cash flow to do it. >> All right. Well, speaking of buying sports rights, big money on the pitch. Our parent company Buren Ink. Let's do the setup. We do have United Airlines after the bell. Joe T owns United. What do you think? >> Well, I mentioned earlier in the show expectations and I think they benefit here from Delta reporting last week and the expectations being lower. Look for a $1.76 88 rather EPS 17.6 billion as it relates to revenue. The capacity outlook's going to be important. And also the commentary on the recent spike. Keep in mind you have jet fuel and oil prices up double digits this month and you've seen United decline double digits accordingly. >> Did you say expectations are lower after Delta? >> I think they are. Yeah. >> Why so? >> I think the expectations are lower because of what we've seen with crude oil. Um you've already seen the price reaction to Delta not really be favorable to what is really strong demand, higher fairs and capacity in the favor of the airlines. So prices corrected somewhat. Okay, we'll do final trades. Final trades. Who's going to go first today? Bill Baroo, >> Lily, it's uh back testing. It's breakout and in on the downs slope of a capex cycle. Real exciting here. >> All righty. Thank you, Robert Beastra BST. It's done nothing for the year, but woke up this past month. I think energy can be a trade in the second half. >> All right. Mega caps, as we said, are having a good day across the board today. So, who's Meta? Meta would be me, Scott. >> Okay, Vice. >> So, it may be slightly ahead of itself, but I still like it. I still think it's uh reasonably valued, >> shall we? >> T- roll price. >> All right, I'll see you on the bell. The exchange is now. >> Thank you very much, Scott. We'll see you later this hour, in fact. And take a look everybody at shares of SpaceX falling below the 135 IPO price. Also, the semis broadly weighing on the market again today. I'm Kelly Evans and welcome to the exchange. The sell off in chip stocks is accelerating this hour with the socks ETF down almost 5%. You can see the names in that space as well. We have Western Digital down 10, SanDisk down 12%, the Mag 7 keeping the tech space from even bigger declines. And the financials are picking up some slack again. Black Rockck up 7% as it crosses 15 trillion in assets under management. We'll talk more about that and what's been driving it. and a health expert weighs in on the cycllospora outbreak as America. >> Okay, that was the final clip. We're going to take a look at the stocks they just talked about. There's just six of them right there and then we'll take a look at the indices. So, let's start off with TR Tro. It's the only one that has a blue flag. Let's start off with actually the weekly, the higher time frame. So, why does it get that blue flag? Again, we have a bullish cloud here. Let me get rid of this yellow line so there's no confusion. Um this is I'm not sure these are really old. Let's get rid of all those actually. Really old. Okay. So T-roll price now T-roll price uh as a company from the highs back in 2022 had dropped quite a bit. You can see that double top right there. Those that pattern right there it had dropped approximately 65% over 3 and 1/2 years. Now from that low however it's now moved up 51.06%. We have a higher low than the prior one. We broke through this high here. We're above the 200 day on the 200 on the weekly chart. This is how you know that the the trend is starting to shift, right? It's going from bearish or neutral, all right, to basically more bullish and it's breaking through levels of resistance like this one here. Are there more resistance levels above above? Absolutely. You can see those tops right there. And I'm sure that's why it's kind of stalling at that level. If I draw that trend line all the way across, you can see how um it hit that top there and there. And then basically now we're at that same level. Um but if we look at the daily chart, today was a good day. It was up 2.16%. We had yesterday this particular stock had what's called a bullish harami. A large red candle followed by a small little bullish candle. Okay, that basically is within the body of the prior one. It follows it. This is a bullish pattern and it gapped up, got above the the 9 period. Now it's in in bullish territory once again. So I like Tro overall. Not crazy about that little upper wick there. If you look at the 3minut chart, um you know, it just it gapped up and then it just kind of fizzled out for the most part the rest of the day. But overall, you look at the big picture, Tro looks good. Delta Airlines. Let's start again with the weekly chart here. This is pulling back a little bit on the weekly, but still holding above the cloud and moving averages. On the daily chart, it is under the 9 period. And today, it looks like it's also under the 26 as well. So, uh it needs a little bit of um a little work here because the ADX is still dropping. That means that the momentum is still subsiding to the downside. Lly, which is Eli Liy, has also been dropping. Now, this level that you see here is a purple line, and what that represents is a monthly level. So, let me go ahead and switch it for a moment to the to the monthly chart. Each one of these little bars represents one month. You can see all the years here. And what I like about what I'm seeing right now is that last month, the month of June, the end of June, we closed above that 113395 level. It was based on these prior highs here, and we're still above it. In fact, if you switch it to a weekly chart, you can see how we're pulling back and touched it on the daily chart. You can see it stalling right at that level again. So, isn't it interesting how, you know, how important these levels can be? Would we see a bounce? That's the question. Would I be adding a position here? Not until I I noticed that it also closed above the moving averages, obviously. So, it's still under these moving averages and a little suspect at at this point, especially since the directional movement index. You see the red line is above the green line. Let's look at the next one. Netflix. Here it is on the weekly chart. Okay. What's interesting about Netflix, you know, we've had this big decline, but now for the last four weeks, uh Netflix has been stalling at the 200, has been finding a little bit of a support level right here, but it's still under the cloud and it's still in a decline. So, I wouldn't be adding Netflix, obviously. Here's a daily chart. Their earnings come out tomorrow. We might see a pop potentially if they can put out some positive earnings. We'll see how what happens there. Okay. It's it's it's a little bit risky, but um a lot of times after a big decline, uh you know, they might try to um make things look a lot more optimistic. Like, you know, I certainly wouldn't be uh the CEOs. I don't think it's going to do anything similar to what the IBM CEO did that led to the 25% drop in IBM yesterday. So, we'll see what happens with Netflix. Um, UAL, United Airlines is pulling back and finding support at that 26 period, right? But it's under the 9 period on the daily. On the weekly chart, it still looks pretty good. It's still holding up above this 11921 support level from this prior high. I like that. Uh, Vistra has been sort of stagnant here. It's been in a very tight consolidation on the weekly chart. You can see this box that it's stuck in inside the cloud right now on the weekly and on the daily chart. It is under the 200. So, I wouldn't be touching this one at this point. All right, let's look at the indices now. And before we look at these, I I do want to show you guys how the markets performed today. So, uh this is now currently 5:58 p.m. It's July 15th. Market has closed and the Dow was up 029. NASDAQ was up 64, I'm sorry, 62. It didn't really look like that around 12 p.m. If you guys looked at the market, it was actually declining at that time. 12 p.m., right? See that? And then it started to recover again. The S&P 500 was up 38 and the Russell up43. These again are not really big moves, but there's a lot of volatility each day uh in uh in these indices, which is interesting. So, all right, let's take a look at the heat map, too. Let's see how the individual stocks performed. So you can see how Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, they were up. Nvidia up, Google and Meta, Amazon, all the Mac 7 stocks were up. Um the majority of the financial stocks were were up. Okay. Uh the insurance companies were down slightly. On the technology front, the semiconductor, equipment, and material stocks were looking pretty bad here. Cisco was down. IBM was down again like I said earlier. Um so a very mixed picture here and if we look at the groups it was communication services and consumer cyclical at the top today and energy utilities at the bottom. All right let's get back into this. So let's look at the spy ETF. What's going on? By the way today the S&P 500 the spy ETF actually got a blue flag for the first time in a little while. And why did it get that? Because price is currently above the moving averages. Tenken keyen above the cloud. It's the chica span which was under price the white line there got above for the first day today. Uh if you look down below the directional movement index is also giving us a little bit of a positive uh crossover here. Volume was etched up a little bit moved up right edged up a little higher which is good. Let's look at the future cloud. What does that look like? It's still bullish. Uh, and this is the daily chart and here's the weekly. Okay. However, with all that said and done, uh, the ADX is still dropping here on the weekly, which means that consolidation, we're still in a consolidation phase. We're not in an expansion phase yet. All right? There's just a lot of holding here and waiting. Same thing here on the daily chart. As long as we remain under that 76040, you have to be very um, cautious with this buy as far as I'm concerned. And although it does get a blue flag, there's still it needs to break through those barriers. All right. Next, the QQQ ETF still under this trend line. Okay. So, that's another thing that you have to keep in mind. Um, will the MAX 7 stocks help to push price back up for the cues? I don't know. Weekly chart is still looking pretty stagnant. The Dow Jones on the weekly looks good. On the daily chart, it's under the nine period still for basically six days in a row. Russell 2000 also under the nine period for four days in a row and under that 29949. The VIX is under the cloud. Uh that's a good sign actually. We want that volatility to be dropping down 4.9%. Uh that's a good sign for the markets when we see that volatility decline. FE Euro stocks moved up 75 but it's still under the 26 period. So no on that one. GLD is still under the cloud under the moving averages. It was up slightly 05% today. Silver was down 1.81 under the cloud. Still bearish territory here. Oil K, interestingly enough, was up 085% today. Broke through that trend line. So that's, you know, it it's a little bit of a hint that we may see an expansion now uh to the next level of resistance, which will be the cloud. How far away is that? That's another 6.8%. We could see crude oil moving out further. the the directional movement index confirms that potential move before it hits its head right there at that cloud. So, we might see short-term, really shortterm price moving up. I mean, switching it to a 30-minute chart. We're obviously in a nice uptrend here, okay, with oil K. What about Bitcoin? IBIT is the ETF here that's still under the cloud on the daily chart. It was up 63%. We got a positive crossover here. So things are looking slightly more bullish for Bitcoin in recent um days. If you look at the 30-inut chart, we broke through the cloud. All right. So very very shortterm Bitcoin does look good. Ethereum, same thing. It's been moving up slightly here on the 30 minute. If you look at the daily chart though, we're still uh we actually entered the cloud. So this is interesting. We've got a bullish crossover here. The directional movement index is starting to become more uh positive here. I'm sure Tom Lee is very happy about what's going on with Ethereum since he has such a big stake in it. COPX, the copper miners ETF, is still under the cloud, under this trend line and but it's still holding above the 200. So, nothing to do here either. It was down 1.85% today. Um, so that's that's it folks. that we covered a lot today. And uh if you liked what you just saw and you want to support the channel, make sure to subscribe, hit the notification bell, hit the like button if you want to get extra content that I do each weekend. I go over my entire portfolio in a video. It's they're usually about an hour long. Uh become a member so you can access these videos that I do each weekend. If you want to get access to my portfolio on a daily basis, uh where I basically share the trades that I've placed, uh what happens is once you become a bluecloud legend level member, it's the highest level. You get access to the member onlyly strategy videos plus the daily trade updates. So, you do need to select that and then hit the join button. Once you do, there'll be a new tab that pops up next to the posts. It will look like this. You'll see membership. You click on that. That's where you'll find the daily posts. And I usually post those um before the market closes. It could be anytime between, I don't know, 1:00 and and 400 p.m., but usually around um 2:00 p.m. Thanks for watching. I appreciate all of you guys. Have a great rest of the day. I will catch you all in the next video. Oh, the ichimoku guiding light. Blue cloud traing through the night. Heat. Heat.