AI Crash Getting WORSE! I’m SELLING!?📉

Another absolutely brutal day for the market today, guys. H tech stocks are getting hit. AI stocks, chip stocks, you name it. Every index is down, the VIX is up, oil's up. H this is uh it's not looking pretty, guys. Not an ideal Friday here. But don't worry, we're going to break down the charts, talk about what I'm doing, where my head's at, earnings that came out recently, and we have to break down the AI stocks. what I'm doing again, where my head's at. So guys, hit the like button, make sure to subscribe, join my Patreon for my portfolio updates, trades, if you want to be a part of my private Discord community. All that's through Patreon link down below pinned in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, cheers. Take a sip of your coffee. I appreciate you all for tuning in and let's dive into it. So, it's about noon on the east coast, a little bit uh before noon on the east coast. And every index, like I said, is down as the Q's are leading the red, down almost 1 and a half%. And you guys can see now the Q's are trading at the bottom of this channel that we've been talking about, right? So, the Q's are down the most today. The S&P's down the second most um about threequarters of a percent down as the Russell's down just over half a percent and the Dow's down not even a quarter percent. The Dow's actually um not too bad here guys as Brent continues to creep up. Brent crude oil is up to 86 87 a barrel up around 3% on the day. WTI is up 3% and the VIX is up 8%. VIX is back to almost 20 points here, which recently guys had it, it hit 22 points back in the early mid days uh of June. So about a month ago, month and a half ago, we hit 22 23 on the VIX. And back in in March, we were in the mid30s, low mid30s. Do I think it gets back there? Um I don't know. Not necessarily, unless things get really ugly in the Middle East. uh but you know it's starting to creep up to to where it was about a month ago. So this is not a riskon day guys. It's a riskoff day which is what we have been seeing in this market and you name it AI stocks chip stocks tech stocks this has been the story we are still selling off micron is down another well it was down earlier now it's recovering a little bit but it got down to 8004 today guys 8004 you heard that right and I was talking to somebody in my Discord the other day and they were asking me stocks. What should I do with Micron? You know, I'm up a little bit. I I think this person got in at 870. Um and the stock was at 9:05, something like that. It had a quick relief rally. And I was like, do do what you want to do, do your own research, but for me, I would lean towards taking the quick profit. And and it looks like that ended up being right because we've been talking about on Micron. Look, 870 875, that's a big support. We have a descending triangle. We have a head and shoulders. All was pointing to more downside and we got it today. Um, again, we got to 804 this morning. So, I believe that guy did take the quick profit. And look, when the charts look a little shaky, you know, when the charts look a little um a little wonky, pointing to more downside and you're up on a quick trade, it's never a bad idea to lock in the quick profit. So, at this point, guys, Micron hit 804. Now, it's at 870, but it's not out of the woods yet. We're still in this little downtrend. We're still seeing it clearly break under 850, 60, 70. That's a clear um you know break of a critical support. So this could potentially go lower. It could potentially go lower in the short term even after this uh relief rally. Stocks like SanDisk today are up about 3%. Um so we're getting a little snapback. But earlier guys, SanDisk is now at 1450 and the pre-market it was at $1,300 flat and at open we hit 1325. I mean, these stocks, even though they're up a little bit right now on this little relief rally, they have been bludging the last couple of days, and even this morning, man, they they got hit even further. So, it it's just an absolute bloodbath right now. Stocks like Intel are down 3% on the day. This thing hit 145 just about 3 weeks ago. We hit what, 90 bucks this morning, down 37, almost 40%. So what we're getting is is profit taking right you can argue a little bit of rotation which I think will be short-lived quite frankly uh we're seeing some rotation maybe into financials right now you know other consumer staple stocks maybe software you know a little software rotation uh but I don't necessarily think money is going to you know flow out of AI stocks and not come back in right it could be a shortterm again profit taking little rotation but ultimately money will come back in here that that's been my take for the last couple of days and weeks and I'm still standing on that but that's what we're getting right now profit taking a little rotation and let's keep it real the fact that the Middle East conflict is reescalating theou went out the window oil starting to go up even though CPI came in at a very favorable uh number Right? The market doesn't care. We're seeing more fear, more uncertainty. Now, that's also bringing down these high-tech, you know, or high beta tech stocks. That that's the reality. So, we have rotation, we have profit taking, we have people getting spooked by Wall Street, the narrative, the headline, Michael Bur, blah blah blah, which I think ultimately is all part of the game. And and you know, these big boys, ret uh what's it called? Wall Street, they're going to come in and buy the dip pretty soon. So, that's why I'm not buying this whole full-on rotation uh narrative. You know, I think, yeah, there could be a little rotation, but the money will be back. So, you have all these things going on at once, the escalation in the Middle East, oil going up, which is causing fear on the future of, you know, rate cuts, what's going to happen with monetary policy. So, we're getting all this stuff at once causing this selloff. And at the end of the day, I know I say this every video pretty much, when in doubt, zoom out. We're still up a lot off these uh you know, off um the the starting price for the year or or what am I trying to say here? Where we started off the year, we're still up a lot on a lot of these stocks. uh the year to uh year-to- date chart. You guys need to look at the year-to-date chart to really um you know put yourselves at ease here. Not just on Intel stock, but pretty much all these Micron, SanDisk, Lamb Research, right? And I know you guys are probably like stocks, we get it, you know, year-to- date, we get it. We're up, but we're feeling the pain in the short term. So, what can I, you know, what do I do, right? if I'm feeling all this pain in the short term, literally nothing. Close your laptop. You know, stop looking at the stock market every day. Um, I know that might not help my case here. I make content, you know, I want you guys to be involved in the market and watch my videos, but hey, if it means you watch less of my videos, if it means you, you know, you don't engage as much, I'm cool with that. if it means you don't make stupid decisions and panic sell your stocks, you know, freak out and and do this and that. And hopefully you guys do still watch my videos because I try and be levelheaded and give you guys um you know, kind of um a level-headed approach here in the market as I've been trading and investing for over 10 years. And I know some of you guys have probably uh been in the market longer, but the point with these videos is not to always show you what stocks to to look at or what I'm doing, but it's also to give you guys kind of uh you know, to kind of talk you off the ledge because a lot of people, and trust me, I know this because I make all this content, I see the comments, a lot of people are like, "Stops, I'm about to panic sell. Thanks for making this video." you know, you you you talk me off the ledge. You you you keep my head level. That is a big reason why I make these videos, guys. And uh that's why I'm not a financial adviser, first of all, but that is why a lot of people have financial advisors. This is why people have financial advisors, guys. Not because they're all geniuses and they all beat the market and they all pick these amazing stocks that go up a 100x. That's not why people uh hire financial advisors. It's because they hire them because they keep a level head for their clients. They talk them off the ledge. They keep them invested in the market during pullbacks when if you know they didn't have a financial advisor, they would have panic sold. They would have sold, right? That is in and of itself a big reason why people hire financial advisors and why they're worth it for a lot of people because think about this scenario one. You have somebody that let's say has a million dollars cash. They invest that money and they have no financial advisor. Let's say they don't have much knowledge on the market. Guess what? When the market runs, oh, they love it. They're making money. But then we see the big pullback come. Guess what investor A is going to do? They're going to panic sell most likely or they're going to sell at the wrong time and they're going to miss out on future gains. But investor B, let's say, who's not that knowledgeable, has a million dollars, but they have a financial advisor in their corner. Sure, that financial advisor might not beat the market, might not pick all the best stocks, but when investor B is about to panic sell out of the market and freak out, you know, on a pullback, guess what? Investor B has this financial advisor that tells them, hey, don't do that. Don't panic sell. Maybe put some cash here, do this, do that. And even though they might not be picking the best stocks or crushing the market, it doesn't matter because they keep investor B in the market invested long term and then ultimately, you know, long term the market is going to it's it's going to make you money, right? Whereas investor A, they panic sold. They're like, "Oh, the market's a scam." And they don't get back in the market. They get a sour taste. And that is why having, you know, I'm not saying go get a financial advisor, guys, but having somebody in your corner that can kind of talk you off the ledge, that is ideal in markets um like these, right? Not saying that I'm a financial advisor or only listen to me or only a financial advisor, but having somebody that's been through the ropes that kind of knows how things work works, you know. Um, it's good to have somebody in your corner like that, especially if you're more of a beginner or, you know, you're not watching the market all the time. Um, or you're on the verge of, again, panic selling, making a bad decision. So, that's my little uh rant for today, guys, uh, for this video. I, you know, I'd love to know what you guys think about that. Let me know in the comments. And let's go over quickly now some earnings. We got numbers out of TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor. Uh, let's see. Not today, but they came out yesterday. So, let's see if I can even see them here, guys. Uh, yeah, EPS came in at $4.31 versus $3.77 expected that beat and revenue came in at 40.2 billion versus 37 or 39, excuse me, 76 billion. Uh, so very nice double beat out of TSM. Uh, let's see. Anything else here, guys? B. TSM expects Q3 revenue between 44.6 and 45.8 billion with gross margin profit margin between 65 and 67% and operating margin between let's see 56 and 58%. Uh so pretty good guidance there on a double beat out of TSM. And let's see, they're planning on an additional um or hundred billion dollars additional investment to increase US chipmity. Um so they're going to invest even more money. Um it looks like to increase the US chipm capacity. Um and that maybe that's why Intel is going down. It looks like here Taiwan semi plans that investment as it fights the Intel challenge. Um TSM's down as well. So I mean look again every stock in this AI chip you know what whatever this whole category is down it is getting hit um and I think TSM look I don't own it I don't plan on buying it because I don't want to have every AI stock in my portfolio. Um I don't have that many either to begin with guys. Uh but listen I think TSM you could argue is a good buy here based on the chart based on earnings. Um, it's down what 20% from highs. The 4our chart, yeah, we're under these moving averages, but we're still maintaining uptrend. The uptrend and the one-year chart, guys, we're right at the 180 SMA, which has been support for the last year on the stock. So, it could slip a little more. Maybe it goes to 380, 390, 370, right, if things get ugly. Uh, but I think TSM is a great continuation play here. Um, and and look, like I said, if my portfolio wasn't heavily AI and techfocused, um, I would add I would add TSM here. It's it's almost a no-brainer. Um, for a swing trade, for a longer term play and UNH, let's pull this one up, guys. United Health Group, they're up massively over the last couple of months. The stock was at 250 uh back in uh early April. Now it's at 430. The stock's up about 2% after earnings came out yesterday. So, let's see. UNH reported um let's see if I could get it here, guys. UNH reported EPS $64. It looks like here. Revenue came in at $112 billion. Both of those beat 112 billion versus the 110.8 billion expected adjusted EPS $6.38 that smoked the $4.86 expected. So very good earnings out of UNH and they see full year 26 adjusted EPS of 1950 to $20 versus $1843 expected. So very good guidance on adjusted EPS for the full year. And I'm not seeing anything on revenue guidance, but look, it looks like we got a lot of overweight buy ratings. Um, couple outperform hold ratings as well. So, I think UNH guys, look, I'm not looking to chase it here necessarily because it is up a lot over the last couple of months. Uh, but I think it's gearing up potentially to take out 465, uh, 450, the the mid400s range, which you guys can see on this three-year chart. That was support all throughout 2024, early mid 2025. Then we fell through it. Obviously, you guys remember um it got down to 230. This is a big resistance. Now, if this could break the mid400s, it could fly. That's the reality. It could fly. Uh, but we got to be patient. We're not there yet. And again, it's up so much over the last couple of months. It worries me a little bit. Not Not that it's going to crash again, but I don't know how much more juice this has left before it stagnates a little bit, pulls back. Uh, but either way, great report, great guidance out of UNH, MTSM. And overall, guys, the moral of this video is don't panic, don't freak out, you know, don't do something you'll regret in a month, right? You know, when stocks are going down, when stocks are going down, that's the best time to do nothing. Hold, buy more if you have cash, and just ride out the wave, ride out the storm. That's what I'm doing. What about you? Follow along for more. Hit that like button, subscribe, and join my Patreon if you guys want to be a part of my private Discord community. If you want to see my portfolio updates and get my realtime trades, buys, sells, options, moves, all that is on Patreon link down below pinned in the comments or go to stockserfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, cheers. I'll see you all in the Patreon or in the next video. Peace out.