$20B AUM Siebert Analyst: $175K Bitcoin Price Target + MSTR “Buy” Rating Explained

Well, how bullish can we get? Our next guest has a 12-month price target of 175k on Bitcoin. Brian Veeten is research analyst who leads digital assets research at Sebert Financial. Welcome in, Brian. >> Hey guys, thanks for having me on. >> Thanks for joining us. So, 175k, tell us the path. How do we get there? What sources of demand do you expect to drive that move and what's the time frame? >> Yeah, so I guess just to back up a little bit, we we felt like the June 30th like 58k was the low and there were a number of supply factors that had had have exhausted. So, the four the four big cohorts we looked at were miners, exchanges, digital asset treasuries and then the lending complex. And so, if you think about miners, you know, every four years miners mine, you know, half as many coins. They have half as many coins to sell and they've also obviously you know, had some success going into AIHPC. So, there's not really that that sort of force seller risk in our view where you know, a lot of them have sold a lot of their Bitcoin and they also have better access to capital, you know, debt and equity capital because of AIHPC. On the exchange side, you know, we felt like coming out of January I'm sorry 2022 coming out of FTX, the exchanges really you know, had to clean up their act and there was a lot more scrutiny. And so, you know, this time around the fastest growing exchange is, you know, fully on chain 24/7 verifiable. So, if there was an issue, you'd kind of know. And we we felt like the rest of the, you know, exchange complex is uh you know, a little bit safer this time around. The third piece the deaths, so, you know, strategy is 2/3 of of the deaths. It you know, in it are 50,000, something like that, Bitcoin. The rest the the remaining uh 400,000 coins, I think it's spread across 200 different firms, um which are pretty well diversified. Um they have low leverage. They don't really have capex requirements. And um they also have no having risk. So, you know, those three buckets, we we feel like there's not really and then strategy we feel like is very well capitalized. Um those very overblown. Um you know, earlier this year people thought they were going to have liquidity issues and everything. I think once they introduced the the SCRC buyback, that took care of you know, the digital credit complex in a in in a big way. Um and we think they'll, you know, they'll be they'll be a a net buyer, uh a big net buyer from here as um you know, more folks come across digital credit and just that the the yield differential that you get as a um fixed income investor in Bitcoin versus uh you know, traditional fixed income. Um particularly with the tax advantage. But um the the fourth piece is just the lending complex in general. So, in 2022, the you know, you had Luna, you had you you had, you know, five, six, seven, eight different companies that were all, you know, kind of kind of the same customer to each other and um I think it was about 40 billion of crypto-backed loans um outstanding back then and you know, once one of them fell, most of them kind of carried carried along with it. Um this time around it's a little bit different. So, the banking rules changed in mid-2025 and what that did was um you know, you've got the J.P. Morgans of the world, the the large the largest US banks um began accepting I I bet as uh as collateral. So, um you know, there there's now a pretty big cohort of very well capitalized US financial institutions that are you know, capturing the the lending complex this time around. So, that's, you know, a a it's kind of peanuts on their on their balance sheet versus back in the day when it was all, you know, levered to the same trade and the same borrower. That kind of thing was a little bit easier for that complex to unwind. So, you know, by June 30th, Bitcoin was off 55% and we felt like it doesn't really need to go down 80% in the past. You've got the ETFs, which are you know, it brings a nice daily buyer into Bitcoin. You've got the DCA crowd. You've also it's just a, you know, millions of people own it. Thousands of institutions own IBIT alone. Um, and you know, with that, I I think as Bitcoin came down 55% the the ETF net inflows only came down about 20%. So, we think it's kind of sticky capital. It's also diversified across a, you know, a very broad base of investors. It's not just one guy, you know, sitting there ready to pull the trigger and hit sell on, you know, 50 billion worth of worth of Bitcoin. So, um, the the ETFs, we think is the biggest market structure difference and, you know, just continues to be a a nice source of demand going forward. I think strategy, like I said, you know, we what we initiated we were trading right around one times NAV and that only happens once every couple years. The last two times were right at the bot right at the depths of, you know, the Luna crash back in um, 2022 and then the other one was um, right on the day that that that the ETFs launched and uh, you know, there was some worry that hey, MSTR might might become less relevant in a in an ETF world and that that didn't prove to be very true. Um, and MSTR kind of ripped from there. So, um, we we felt like, you know, MSTR had had kind of reached that that MNAV bottom. I think the digital credit product is is is a great product. You know, it gives huge fixed income to folks. Brings in a whole new class of investors. And that tax differential, I think particularly in New York, it's you know, it's it's like a thousand basis points a year. If you hold it, I think if you hold it like eight years, it's like a thousand basis points a year of tax tax advantage. So, you know, we we think digital credit is a is a big breakthrough. We think the ETFs you know, MSTR and the and the dot complex coming back a little bit. You know, miners having fewer coins and so we just think there's there's sort of a you know, a clean runway. And now as you look ahead the genius act implementation starts in January. And so that's going to invite all sorts of new, you know, institutional players into the stable coin space. Gives the banking complex an easy way to to interact with the ecosystem. And what that really does is it just it brings it brings in all sorts of new users who bring all sorts of new liquidity. And as the tokenization movement, you know, continues, there's going to be more and more assets for them to trade once they bring that liquidity online. So, you might you might kind of find your way into crypto or Bitcoin through a stable coin, but we do think some of that you know, flows back into the ecosystem over time. So, those are I think those are the big big factors in the longer term. It's just this this broader, you know, tokenization wave and bring more activity on chain. >> Now, Brian, you know, you mentioned all of these >> [clears throat] >> various factors, right? You have the digital credit in the innovation happening there and the expansion of that vertical. You have the ETFs and and the you know, insane net inflows and volume we're seeing there. And and to your point, it's a sticky investor base. The Fidelity report showed that zero of their institutions surveyed actually sold throughout this entire drawdown. And and and we're seeing you know, just broadly you know, Bitcoin is superior collateral, right? To your point, even ETFs being used as as collateral. Bitcoin itself also being used as collateral. So the real financialization of this product is is kind of the macro trend I suppose on that side. And then you [snorts] also pointed out the the the block reward mechanism for the miners and the halving. Now typically that's been the primary driver of these you know, cycles, right? This this cyclical nature of Bitcoin seems to have kind of been built around the difficulty adjustment and and the mining rewards. So how how much of a role is that going to be able to continuously play? Like like will that continue to be meaningful in the cycle with this you know, massive amount of financialization bringing in substantial capital? >> Yeah, it's it's funny. I mean I think we're we might have even beat to the day the at the end of the the four-year the predicted four-year cycle. So it's it's an amazing thing. It's kind of a you know, it's a uh it's the one of nature's you know, beautiful things. Um you know, I I I I think with the halving I think what has happened historically in part is you've also had this parallel you know, liquidity dynamic, but you've also just had um just this you know, um sort of like because the halving is a halving, I feel like a lot of the ecosystem plans a lot of a lot of their launches and a lot of the excitement and and sort of hype around the space also tends to you know, start to really ramp around that time. So it's a little bit of a shelling point where you know, it's just like it's this point in the market that you know, nobody knows each other but everyone kind of agrees on the same point and it just kind of makes sense. You've got the old I think the the more old school holders do still follow this to to a degree and so you do get a little bit of hey, some you know, some guys who sold the top just figure out it's it's the you know, the end of the four year having cycle to look at the 200 week moving average, things like that. Say hey, it's probably time to you know, start picking this thing back up. Um so I think it's a little bit of a uh there is a little bit of a you know, supply dynamic with the having but it is to your point, you know, becoming a little bit less relevant just in just in absolute terms. Um but just the more more of the marketing engine of it I think is still, you know, kind of a force. >> And what are institutional clients telling you about the conditions they need before increasing their Bitcoin allocations and how does that shape your forecast? >> Yeah, so I I think the the the big thing is this is just a super volatile, you know, alien asset. I mean it just it's it's just really hard to to predict this thing. Um especially if you've never you know, looked at it. I mean I've been following this thing for 10 years. I feel like I finally sort of have my arms around it but um I'm sure it'll you know, take a new turn at some point and um I think that's a beautiful thing. I think volatility is your friend. Um I think it's one of the only ways to get ahead and I think a lot of people do after you know, 17 years they at least know about Bitcoin. Um and I think this digital credit engine is, you know, could be pretty powerful. I think there's this almost starvation for, you know, having a good income and you know, interest rates have been a little bit better recently which is great. Uh but even still I think that, you know, that that product assuming Bitcoin can, you know, continue to compound at, you know, 20, 30, 40% a year. Um I think it's 40% historically. Strategy is saying 30% a year for the next 20 years. Um, but even even 20% I think makes that product work. Um, so I I think what institutions are looking to see is just fewer of these blow-ups. And I And again, I think because of the lending complex changing its its composition, um, because of all the new, you know, institutional, um, it's kind of like liquidity begets liquidity. Um, and I think also if, you know, if we do sort of run into some macro issues for a little bit, um, Bitcoin's kind of hanging in there. And if it can continue to do so, um, I think that's going to, you know, raise a lot of or turn a lot of heads. >> And you mentioned the genius act earlier, which, you know, is going to be massive for the for the stablecoin infrastructure for banking. Um, you know, you mentioned banking in particular. How is that activity going to translate into demand for Bitcoin? >> The million-dollar question, but, um, you know, I I think that when the spot ET, the the best way to think about it is just a a massive access new access point. Um, same as, you know, not same, but similar, um, sort of parallel to the spot ETFs. The spot ETFs really, you know, brought in that that institutional flow. It became a little bit easier to to just to buy and sell Bitcoin. Um, and then, you know, as as, um, I think as the genius act starts to come to fruition, you know, our our view is you might not get the adoption right overnight. But the thing with stablecoins and just the broader, you know, crypto digital assets, it's the the whole point is making things a little bit better, faster, cheaper. Um, and and, you know, giving people a little bit better flexibility and independence and, um, you know, control over their financial lives. And I think from a from an institutional side an interesting way to think about Genus Act is hey if if we do you know enter you know a little bit tougher corporate margin environments and like that um you know stable coins like it the more you adopt this and the more you're able to strip some of those little bits of cost out of your system like that's you don't have to fire anybody and you don't have to sell any more product to sort of you know protect or or increase your margins. So if there is some level of margin compression I think that's that could be a big accelerator of this but I think the the reality is that Genus Act brings stable coins you know mainstream and if you're not doing it I think there is going to be a you know sort of a FOMO throughout you know companies and you know institutional investors the guys that are not using that stuff I think will be you know a little bit further behind down the road so that could cause you know to some kind of uh FOMO and and sort of get everybody involved and then I think the bigger you know super trend is this tokenization and you know again if if you're not you're not doing your homework on Genus Act and getting ready for that you know you might fall further behind there so I think that's the big thing with Genus Act is just a massive access point expansion you know I I remember a year ago I was saying hey maybe technology platforms with a million plus users you know would be the ones to administer and and sort of facilitate launching stable coin payments and all that stuff and you know lo and behold this year you've got billion user platforms that are you know launching this stuff um and it's you know I don't think it's going to happen overnight but just to have just already have these, you know, distribution powerhouses, um I don't think it's going to be that difficult. Um you know, if you can give a little bit of those savings back to the customer to really incentivize people to use it. Um so yeah, I think that's yeah, that's the main points. >> You believe in Bitcoin, so why would you ever sell it? Life happens, [music] an emergency expense, a new home purchase, or a great business opportunity. With Salt, you can access the power of your Bitcoin without selling. Now with rates starting at 7 and 1/2% the original Bitcoin back lender, no collateral losses, no rehypothecation since [music] 2016. Get your exclusive offer at saltlending.com/bmtv. >> Now earlier we were we were talking about MicroStrategy. Um a lot of attention in the space has has been on some some other treasury companies, um younger, maybe a little bit faster, um and it seems like uh the eyes have been kind of taken off strategy a bit here. Um what about strategy do you think is is showing uh good value right now? What are your forecasts for them? Um and how do they kind of still stand apart from the crowd outside of just their their uh their scale? >> Yeah, so we we do we cover strategy, we we're buy-rated, we have a $350 price target, and that's based on you know, $175,000 Bitcoin price a year out, and you know, we we don't really assume um MNAV expansion within that, but it's you know, it's it's probably reasonable to assume that they will, you know, be able to trade above NAV, and and and why is that? Well, you know, the way that we think about digital asset treasury companies is that the treasury is kind of the treasury. Um it's liquid, you know, 24/7 365. You know, obviously you probably couldn't market sell everything all at once, but the treasury is liquid and then, you know, the the the market kind of ascribes a value to your operate, you know, your operating business, basically. And the the the sum of those two pieces is what gets you to your MNAV and RV. And so the strategy, you know, we we think this this capital markets engine that they have is, you know, is meaningful, is valuable, um and could deserve, you know, to to have positive equity value. Um in that, they'll be able to, you know, generate more Bitcoin per share over the long term. Um and so I'm sorry. Can you Can you repeat your your last question? >> Yeah, like um I think that the the what's left on the answer, which are all great points, uh is just kind of how do you uh compare them to to to others that so much attention has gone to, right? I feel like, you know, obviously, everyone's been talking about them for years now, the original innovator in the space, but attention now seems to have shifted to some younger players, um a lot more coverage there. Um so so, you know, how do they stand to difference against some of these younger, um you know, more hyped up players? >> Yeah, so, you know, there there's and and I could think of, you know, I'm sure we're thinking of the same companies and um you know, I think everybody's I think there there's there are more um there's there's a lot more, you know, green shoots and potential um winners, I think, than than there were, you know, a year ago. I mean, this this MSCI, you know, decision just came out and I remember, I think it was the exact same day as the the 10 10 crash last year, where that that originally started to come out. Um and the DAC complex really sold off in 4Q last year. Um you know, all all the way all the way down to, you know, way below MNAV. And, you know, we think we think the market um got a little bit frustrated. I mean, a lot of these launched right towards the top and you know, almost almost immediately started going down in a straight line. And that was last year, but you know, this year I think as Bitcoin has settled and as, you know, the I think investors get their arms around these what what these businesses really are, um I think there's, you know, there there there is growing comfort around these names. Um you know, as far as you know, will will there be another MicroStrategy or I'm sorry, Strategy or you know, will there be you know, five of them or 10 of them, you know, we I I I think um I I don't necessarily, you know, see too many others being as big as Strategy, but I do think that, you know, Strategy has been a great partner. Um I think they're, you know, leading the charge and really um you know, carrying the torch as far as educating people and educating companies and educating the world on just how important it is to, you know, protect yourself from debasement. Um and I think over time, um you know, I've I've noticed that it's it's less about them trying to win everything. And at this point, um you know, I think I think they've they've they've come around to, you know, trying to help um you know, help help others throughout the ecosystem um have some success, too. So, I think that's another, you know, driver in the background here. >> Ryan Veten, analyst at Seibert Financial, thanks so much for joining us. >> Thanks a lot, guys.