Market Shock: Iran Denies Ceasefire as Oil Prices Set to Explode

Even with tensions escalating in the Middle East overnight, it looks like markets do not care. As of right now, the NASDAQ market during the overnight hours has propped up eight, what is that? 86%. So during normal trading hours, remember markets opened up in the green. They pushed up, made new highs, and then quickly began to correct. They went back to retest. They formed a lower high and they sold off for the remainder of the day. The 5-minute time frame illustrates that beautifully. Consistent lower highs and lower lows. So, what was the direction for the day? It was bearish. It doesn't matter that the market opened up in the green. That's great for those that carried positions overnight. But not even so, because at that point, if you carried them from Friday to Monday, you would have have to have taken profits shortly after markets opened. If not, you pretty much would have given back all that it gained because then it was nearly a break even day. But now during the overnight hours, it's trying to pick back up and retest previous highs. If we pay attention to again some of the memory chip or semiconductors, Micron, this is why we played it very carefully. Right before markets closed, I sent a message to our LPP team. I let them know that, hey, I have closed my short. I my last short was when it went back for a retest here right around 900. waited for confirmation, really began to add more to it, and then took profits early. I did not let this thing run all the way down to lows of 860. Again, I'm not a perfect trader. I never close it out perfectly. I played it safe. I already exceeded my daily goal by a lot. And as we got close to the previous support of like $870, I took profits right away. I made $13,279 today. And as you can see, my last trade was actually to go long. I bought the dip during uh the aftermarket hours and as it began to recover, I began trimming that position and then selling it fully. I left myself with my one lucky share. So, nothing crazy. My average price was right around 874 87460. So, right around this general area. So, as it pushed up during the overnight hours, I always have the ability to sell and take profits during the overnight hours. Again, the trading application that I'm using right now is called Weeble. If you want to download it, it's going to be linked in the description down below if you want a sign up bonus. It is an affiliate link, but I just want to make sure that you're aware. With that being said, why did I sell the position if it's recovering? Guess what? We can't predict the future. And market sentiment has been incredibly choppy for memory chip and semiconductors. I do not know what's going to happen this week. We have a really big week ahead of us. Uh we have, you know, some big Mac 7 companies reporting earnings this week. Wednesday, we have Alphabet, which is Google's mother company, and Tesla. I do plan to live stream those two companies earning reports this week. Another reason to just subscribe to the channel. We have Service Now, big in the AI space. IBM, Intel, big in the AI space. So, we'll see how it actually reacts. But one thing that a lot of people are talking about right now is United States is moving closer to an all-out war with Iran. This is the 10th consecutive day, one of the hardest attacks that we have had against another country. And right now, this is against Iran. Remember, oil prices are propped up higher, markets are slightly trending lower, but this is all before inflation begins to pick back up. Remember, because of the ceasefire last month, this allowed oil to flow through the straight of her. This allowed oil prices to come back down. This allowed gas prices to be cheaper and that brought inflation lower. Now for the month of July, what's going on? Average gas prices are going back up. Oil price per barrel is going back up. Inflation is likely to go back up. And that will get tracked on the inflation report. I'm not trying to instill fear in you of like, oh my gosh, markets have to drop. No, no, no. We all know that they're irrational and we all know that they're always eager to recover, especially if Trump signals it. All I'm saying is that hey, pay attention to the direction. The market has no problem in trying to recover, but it often gets rejected with lower highs and lower lows, right? The same thing with NASDAQ. If we look at NASDAQ, we are at a previous oversold range, right? This is a common support range right around 680 to 690, the $700 support range. This is a common resistance range. But if you look at the day chart, it kind of paints a different picture. Different time frames give you different perspectives. Again, not trying to scare you, just trying to make you aware of yes, it can get a lot worse before it gets better. If we break support, right? If we break the support and we retrace based off previous lows that we made back in March of 2026, right? This is late March, March 30th to be exact. That is when we hit those exact lows. So again, if overall markets begin to drop, then there is no question that a lot of these semiconductor and memory chip stocks can continue to drop. Now, of course, if markets find support and then begin to recover, that supports the case that markets can stay elevate elevated for a short period of time. And officially today, SPCX, which is SpaceX, is now trading below $120 per share even before their private and original investors are able to sell the stock. Isn't that crazy? Is it though? Is it really that crazy? It's down over 50%. Or right around um it might be 48%. Let me double check. Yeah, 47.6. Do you guys think it's crazy that a company that loses what what is it four or eight billion dollars every single year that it's not worth $3 trillion? Is that crazy or was it crazy to be valued at that? I still think it's overvalued at least with currently what it's presenting, right? But I guess fundamentals only matter when there's uncertainty during irrational times. It supports irrational valuations and that's what, you know, I'm sure Elon was hoping for. But as of right now, it's a straight downward spiral, consistent lower highs, lower lows. I see there to be no reason, especially with Kathy Woods just dollar cost averaging on her way down. She's just hoping for a dead cat bounce. Again, obviously, she has a lot more money than me. Um, so if you want to follow in her footsteps, she has one of the worst performing hedge funds for a reason. Uh but with that being said, I would set an alert and I would be very careful about buying SpaceX before any signs of a confirmation. Right. It is oversold technically speaking, but the cheap can always get cheaper and especially at a $ 1.57 trillion market cap. Yep. Five 1.57 trillion. It's insane. There's no question that this stock can continue to drop. I'm not going to short it. I don't care to short it because I know it can just begin to do a V-shaped recovery just because, right, if overall markets begin to recover. Uh we all know that's possible. With that being said, I don't care to short it just due to the risk-to-reward, but I definitely do not care to buy, especially not before any indication of a recovery. If we begin to get or show signs confirmation of reversal, I could entertain the idea for a potential swing trade and a very light one at that. But if you're someone that's more of a value investor, I do not know why you would ever consider SpaceX. Just like Tesla, again, you guys know, if you don't know, I love Elon. I I do believe that he is one of the greatest minds of our generation. But with that being said, I don't need to pretend like the companies he is running are actually incredibly profitable. They're not. They're incredibly overvalid because there's so much value behind him, right? If you look at Tesla, remember this is one of the companies that's about to report earnings. Tesla trades at nearly 360 times its earnings, meaning that it's valued over a trillion dollars, but it only produces 3.9 billion in net income. And it's expected to go lower. And that's the scary part. No more government subsidies, no no more getting credit from the government, no more incentivizing customers by the government. It's all Tesla, all Elon. We'll see what, right? I I think it it really matters now more than ever before. He likes talking. Let's have him deliver. Show investors that, hey, you can actually follow through with your promises and not just kick a can down the road 5 to 10 years from now. Where the hell is my Tesla Roadster, right? It's been 10 years nearly. Come on now. Right. The Optimus robot. How much longer are you going to dangle that fruit in front of our face before you actually deliver it? Oh, but it's going to be what takes Tesla to a $10 trillion valuation. Again, we would love to see the product. With that being said, Tesla is one of the companies that is set to report earnings on Wednesday, and I will be live streaming this July 22nd. Earnings per share. Pathetic for a trillion dollar max 7 company, 52 cents per share. Revenue expected expected to be 26 right around 26 billion, which is so funny because it's been revisioned. Uh, it's always they never expect Tesla to actually grow as much as any of the other Mac 7 companies. All the other Mac 7 companies have to absolutely kill it. Meta Microsoft Google Nvidia and they often do, and Amazon, but then there's lame ass Tesla that comes with their weak ass earnings. Uh, but again, it's Elon, right? And and that's kind of like the hype he's able to to ride with. So, we'll see. We'll see if he if the hype trend continues or if it actually begins to pay the price. But again, as of right now, a lot of hype being injected into the market. We're going going to go back to retest previous highs. And I'm excited to take on the markets tomorrow with our LPP team. Like I said, they got to see me trade live this morning and I hope that you guys can get to watch me trade live tomorrow morning at market open. So, whenever it is that you are ready, it's the second link in the description down below whenever you're ready to join us. And again, if you want to preview a live session before you actually join, just click this button here and you will preview one of our previous live sessions before you even join LVP. Again, we're going to have a little discount link or discount code for you that you could enter at checkout if you're ready to join LVP 3.0. So, I appreciate you guys' time. I hope that we're in a thumbs up and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take your team.