Trade Tracker: Stephanie Link buys Micron and more Nvidia

THE LEADER HERE UP ABOUT 1.2%, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE TRADE. GETTING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT BOUNCE TODAY. AND I WANT TO START WITH STEPHANIE, WHO'S MADE SOME KEY TRADES IN THIS SPACE RECENTLY. STEPH, YOU TWEAKED YOUR SEMI EXPOSURE. WHAT BROUGHT YOU INTO THE FOLD HERE. >> YEAH SURE. SO I SOLD MARVELL BECAUSE I WAS UP OVER 100% SAME LIKE I DID WITH TERADYNE. I THINK YOU TAKE PROFITS WHEN YOU CAN TAKE THEM. AND THEN I ADDED MICRON BECAUSE THE STOCK IS DOWN ABOUT 24% FROM ITS HIGHS. AND THE FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN AMAZINGLY STRONG. WE ALL KNOW THAT. BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE STRONGER FOR LONGER. WHEN I WENT THROUGH THE QUARTER AND I'VE BEEN GOING THROUGH THE QUARTER REPORT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND YOU KNOW, THEY'VE SIGNED 16 DEALS LAST QUARTER, 14 OF WHICH IT GIVES THEM $100 BILLION IN RPO. AND THAT'S BOOKINGS. AND I THINK THAT THAT MEANS THAT THE THE VISIBILITY IS JUST SO MUCH BETTER AS A RESULT. AND SO I DO THINK THE AI TRADE IS CERTAINLY NOT OVER. I THINK WE'RE IN THE THIRD OR FOURTH INNING AT THIS POINT IN TIME. AND WE ARE SHORT MEMORY, WE ARE SHORT COMPUTE. AND THAT GIVES THIS COMPANY A LOT OF PRICING POWER. I DON'T KNOW IF WE'RE GOING TO SEE THE PRICING POWER THAT WE SAW LAST QUARTER. I MEAN, THEY HAD 60% AVERAGE SELLING PRICES IN DRAM AND 80% IN NAND. BUT I DO THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE ASPS BE STRONGER AND JUST STRONG IN GENERAL. AND I THINK THIS COMPANY HAS ABOUT $40 A SHARE IN EARNINGS POWER THROUGH THE CYCLE. I ALSO ADDED TO NVIDIA. WE STARTED BUYING THAT TWO WEEKS AGO. I JUST BELIEVE THAT IT'S LAGGED SO MUCH. IT'S ACTUALLY UNDERPERFORMING THE GROUP BY 53% YEAR TO DATE. IT TRADES AT 18 TIMES FORWARD ESTIMATES. THAT'S THE CHEAPEST IT'S TRADED AT SINCE 2019. AND WE KNOW THAT THEY DOMINATE THE GPU MARKET. I UNDERSTAND THERE'S COMPETITION COMING BUT THEY WILL ALWAYS DOMINATE THE GPU MARKET IN MY MIND. AND THEY HAVE NEW PRODUCTS COMING. AND THIS IS A COMPANY THAT'S GROWING REVENUES IN THE 80S, GROSS MARGINS IN THE 70S. AND THEY'RE GOING TO DOUBLE THEIR FREE CASH FLOW BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT YEAR, END OF NEXT YEAR. AND SO I LIKE THAT VISIBILITY AS WELL. AND I THINK THERE'S A GOOD VALUE THERE. >> YEAH. I SAW THIS INTERESTING STAT FROM OPKO THIS MORNING. GUYS WITH MICRON AND NVIDIA ARE THE TOP TWO CONTRIBUTORS TO YEAR OVER YEAR EARNINGS GROWTH FOR THE S AND P AND Q TWO. IF THESE TWO COMPANIES WERE EXCLUDED. ACCORDING TO OPKO, THE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE OF THE S AND P FOR Q2 WOULD FALL TO 16.8% FROM 24.7%. THAT'S THE 790 BASIS POINT IMPROVEMENT. JOE, I KNOW YOU OWN THESE TWO AS WELL. ARE THESE MUST OWNS JUST GIVEN THEIR IMPACT TO EARNINGS GROWTH IN Q2? >> WELL, LOOK, I THINK IF YOU HAVE NOT OWNED THEM, THE RIGHT PERSPECTIVE TO TAKE IS YOU NOW HAVE A PULLBACK INTO WHAT IS TECHNICAL SUPPORT. WELL I THINK. >> MICRON'S UP 10% TODAY. >> RIGHT. AND YOU'RE TECHNICALLY YOU'RE STILL SITTING ABOVE THE 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. I THINK THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE WELL KNOWN ABOUT MEMORY, HIGH BANDWIDTH MEMORY AND THE UNIVERSE OF AI INFRASTRUCTURE. WE KNOW HYPERSCALERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPEND AND THEY ARE ULTIMATELY GOING TO BENEFIT. I THINK FROM A SENTIMENT POSITIONING STANDPOINT, THEY REACHED AN EXTREME. THEY WENT PARABOLIC AND YOU NEED TO WORK. YOU NEEDED TO WORK OFF THAT OVERBOUGHT TYPE OF CONDITION. AND I THINK THAT'S IN FACT WHAT YOU'VE DONE. SO IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A POSITION, YOU HAVE WHAT I WOULD CALL A LOW RISK, WELL DEFINED POINT OF ENTRY HERE VERSUS THESE CRITICAL, SUPPORTIVE MOVING AVERAGES. IF THEY BREAK DOWN BELOW IT, THEN YOU CAN MAKE A STRONG ARGUMENT THAT MAYBE THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT THAT WAS TRACED OUT SEVERAL WEEKS AGO, BUT I HOLD THEM FROM A CORE PERSPECTIVE IN THE ETF. I'M NOT ADDING TO THEM HERE BECAUSE I DO THINK WE'VE WORKED OFF THE SIGNIFICANT FEVER. AND I THINK OVERALL, YOU'VE SEEN THE MOMENTUM FACTOR COME DOWN DRAMATICALLY THIS MONTH. OKAY. ONE OF THE WORST MONTHS FOR THE MOMENTUM FACTOR IN THE LAST TEN YEARS. AND IT SEEMS TO ME YOU HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A HANDOFF IN WHAT'S SAVING THE MARKET IS THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MEGA-CAP. IT'S YOUR APPLE, IT'S YOUR META, IT'S YOUR AMAZON. THEY'RE PERFORMING NVIDIA. THEY'RE ALL PERFORMING REALLY WELL IN JULY. AND I THINK THAT HANDOFF MIGHT CONTINUE. SO I'M A LITTLE BIT MUTED IN TERMS OF HOW I THINK ABOUT POSITIONING. IF YOU'RE THERE, STAY THERE. IF YOU'RE NOT THERE, LOWEST POINT OF REFERENCE, DON'T GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT A TRADE THAT PROBABLY SAW ITS MOST STRONGEST INTENSITY SEVERAL WEEKS AGO. >> WELL, I GUESS THE KEY QUESTION TO JOSH IS WHETHER THIS IS A FACTOR UNWIND IN TERMS OF MOMENTUM AND A LOT OF THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE EXPOSURE OR A FUNDAMENTAL UNWIND. THIS IS A QUESTION THAT WELLS FARGO WAS ASKING THIS MORNING. AND IF IT IS PURELY FACTOR BASED AND POSITIONING BASED, DO YOU FEEL LIKE THAT UNWIND IS IS TO A POINT NOW WHERE IT'S COMPLETELY BEEN FLUSHED OUT? >> WELL, THE MARKET, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT I THINK BECAUSE THE MARKET IS TELLING YOU THAT THEY BOUGHT THE THAT THEY'RE BUYING THE DIP. AND THEY THINK THAT MOST OF WHAT WENT ON WAS TECHNICAL AND NOT FUNDAMENTAL. THAT'S WHY THE ENTIRE AI TRADE IS RIPPING TODAY. NOT JUST THE SEMIS, BUT ALL THE NON-TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES THAT HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THIS WHOLE AI CAPEX BUILD OUT THEME. THEY'RE ALL THEY'RE ALL UP. DRAM IS UP 10% TODAY. THE TOP PERFORMING STOCKS IN THE S&P SIENNA SANDISK WESTERN DIGITAL MICRON INTEL AMD CORNING. SO IT'S ALL ONE TRADE. THE TRADE GOT WASHED OUT THIS MONTH. JOE MADE A REALLY GOOD POINT I THINK. AND AND WE HAD THIS HANDOFF UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE OF THE MARKET THAT ALLOWED US TO NOT GIVE UP TOO MUCH GROUND IN THE IN THE S&P AT THE INDEX LEVEL. AND THE MARKET TODAY IS TELLING YOU THEY WANT TO BE LONG THESE NAMES. NOW, WHY TODAY? THIS IS THE THING THAT NOBODY'S BROUGHT UP YET. IF YOU'RE BULLISH ON THIS THEME, YOU CAN'T NOT BE IN THESE STOCKS AHEAD OF GOOGLE BECAUSE WHAT THE GOOGLE WHAT THE GOOGLE EARNINGS REPORT DOES FOR US EVERY QUARTER IS IT SERVES AS THIS SORT OF LIKE, COME ON INTO THE REVIVAL TENT FOR BROTHER LOVE'S TRAVELING SALVATION SHOW. IT'S THE AFFIRMATION THAT EVERYBODY NEEDS TO HEAR ABOUT THE STATE OF CAPEX, THE FORWARD GUIDE FOR CAPEX, THE FACT THAT ALL THESE PROJECTS ARE GOING AHEAD, MAYBE EVEN MORE PROJECTS THAN WE THOUGHT ABOUT 90 DAYS AGO, THE LAST TIME THEY REPORTED. SO LIKE, IF YOU IF YOU'RE BULLISH, YOU NEED TO BE IN AHEAD OF GOOGLE, NOT SITTING ON THE SIDELINE BECAUSE THIS IS ARGUABLY THE CLEANEST AI STORY IN THE ENTIRE MARKET FROM THE, THE HYPER FROM A HYPERSCALER PERSPECTIVE, I ALSO THINK, YOU KNOW, IT'S A, IT'S A REALLY HEALTHY TAPE. THE FACT THAT WE HAD THESE STOCKS, 20, 30% DRAWDOWNS, YOU WOULD HAVE THOUGHT, OH NO, NOW THE WHOLE MARKET'S GOING TO SELL OFF BECAUSE IT LOST ITS LEADERSHIP. NUMBER ONE, THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. AND NUMBER TWO, THIS HAS BEEN A REALLY HELPFUL REMINDER FOR TRADERS. AIN'T NO SUCH THING AS ONE WAY TRADES. IT DOESN'T EXIST. THE BEST STOCKS IN THE MARKET, THE MOST POWERFUL NAMES, THE BEST EARNINGS STORIES. THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE DOWN DAYS. THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE DOWN WEEKS OR EVEN A DOWN MONTH ON THE WAY TOWARD HIGHER PRICES. WE NEED TO GET THAT REMINDER. IF THEY JUST GO PARABOLIC EVERY SINGLE DAY, THE MARKET OPENS, THEN YOU'RE IN FOR A REAL CRASH. AND FORTUNATELY, THIS IS WHAT KEEPS THE MARKET HONEST. THIS UNWINDS SOME OF THE LEVERAGE. THIS GETS PEOPLE TO ACTUALLY HIT THE SELL BUTTON ON SOME OF THESE TWO ETFS. LIKE THIS IS WHAT YOU NEED FOR A LONGER TERM UPTREND. SO I'M REALLY PLEASED WITH THE WAY NOT ONLY THESE STOCKS ARE REBOUNDING, BUT THE WAY THE OVERALL MARKET IS PROCESSING WHAT'S HAPPENING AND AND LIVING THROUGH IT. >> THAT'S A REALLY GOOD POINT WITH REGARD TO ALPHABET EARNINGS AND THE TIMING. AND JASON YEAH, YOU GOT SOME EXPERIENCE THERE ALSO IN KIND OF THE FUNDAMENTAL CAMP OF WHY WE'RE SEEING SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS MOVE HIGHER TODAY. YOU'VE GOT TAIWAN, JUNE EXPORT ORDERS THAT WERE KIND OF SKYROCKETING. TSMC REPORTEDLY LOOKING TO RAISE PRICES 10% NEXT YEAR. THAT'S ACCORDING TO NIKKEI. SO I GUESS THE QUESTION IS, GIVEN WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN TERMS OF POSITIONING, GIVEN SOME OF THE FUNDAMENTAL STORIES THAT WE'RE DIGGING THROUGH TODAY, AND JOSH'S POINT ABOUT ALPHABET EARNINGS, DO YOU THINK THESE MOVES HOLD? >> I DO, I DO, AND I THINK ALL THAT'S WHAT'S TRANSPIRED THUS FAR. THIS IS A MATTER OF POSITIONING FROM MY STANDPOINT. OBVIOUSLY THE SOX OR THE SM, WHICHEVER INDEX YOU'VE BEEN ON THE SEMI SIDE HAVE RUN TO, TO JOSH'S POINT. I MEAN, THEY'VE BEEN PARABOLIC RUNS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE FIRST HALF. AND IT IS HEALTHY TO SEE OTHER SECTORS PARTICIPATING LIKE HEALTH CARE FINANCIALS INDUSTRIALS STARTING TO MOVE. AND I THINK TO JOE'S POINT, IF YOU'RE NOT IN THERE THIS IS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY BECAUSE TO YOUR TO YOUR POINT, LESLIE AT THE TOP OF THE SHOW, YOU KNOW, 48% OF EARNINGS GROWTH IS GOING TO COME FROM THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX GOING FORWARD. SO THERE'S CLEAR VISIBILITY ON WHAT THOSE PROFITS LOOK LIKE. CAPEX IS NOT GOING TO SLOW DOWN. YOU'RE GOING TO HEAR THAT FROM GOOGLE TOMORROW. THEY'LL REAFFIRM AND POTENTIALLY RAISE. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO HEAR THAT FROM MOST