AI Crash Getting WORSE! Memory Stocks In TROUBLE!?📉

AI stocks, the memory trade. It's getting ugly today, guys. We got earnings out of SKH Heinik, South Korea. That market tanked and we're down across the board here in the United States. Every index is down. Oil's up. The VIX is ripping. We have a lot to talk about. Guys, hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you want to see how I'm trading in these markets, stocks I'm buying, and overall where my head's at throughout the day. and you get access to my private Discord. All that's on Patreon link down below pinned in the comments or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, cheers. Take a sip of your coffee. You're going to need it. And let's dive into it. So, the Q's are down over 1.7%. Same with the Dow. Believe it or not, the Dow has actually been holding up, but today it's getting hit as the Russell's down 1.6 six and the S&P 500's down 1 and a4% as both Brent and WTI crude oil they're up around 7% each as the VIX is now pushing 20 past 20 it is up over 11%. The VIX is now testing the highs from about a month ago in the end of June we hit 20 21 and by the looks of it honestly we might go past that. I think this could go to the mid20s with with how things are shaping up here, guys. And memory names like Micron back in the mid700s, which I'm not surprised that we not talk about that recently. I told you guys, watch out for this head and shoulders. Watch out for this gap to fill between 650 and 750. Here we are. It's playing out. Stocks like SanDisk are completely tanking now. Now we're about to break under $1,000 a share. It's down 9%. Stocks like SKH Highix, which they just reported earnings, this is down 34% trading at 125 bucks. The ADRs are um you can see SKHY. We hit $200. About 2 three weeks ago. Now we're again down about 40% from that point trading at 1101 120. It is looking rough, guys. It is looking rough. And let's dive deeper into these um earnings. We'll take a look at the Cosby very quickly. Bear with me here, guys. So, the Cosby is the South Korean index, which this closed at 6,000 points yesterday. Now, it's in the mid 5000s. It it keeps on getting nailed here, guys. And you know, the memory trade makes up a lot of the South Korean stock market. at about 50% of the index is in Samsung and SKH Highix, which is insane. Could you could you imagine guys if the S&P w was ha or half the S&P was in two companies? That's how it is in South Korea. And the Cosby went down 6% today and it got down to 5300. It's at one point it was down 10% again over 10% and then we got a decent relief rally and to close but still went down 360 points 6% in the red and a lot of that has to do with obviously the memory trade weakening in the short term and again 50% of the Cosby is in two companies. So let's break down SKH Heinix's earnings that just came out. Let me zoom in here a little bit so you guys can see. And by the way, these numbers were good. Very good, right? Revenue came in at almost 79.5 trillion1 or about 54.5 billion, marking a 257% increase year-over-year and 51% sequentially, though missing the consensus estimate of 84 trillion. So, they're still crushing it, guys. Growing 260% year-over-year almost, but they missed the estimate by a couple trillion one. Um, so that caused a little panic in the stock there. Again, a big reason why the Korean market, South Korean market got hit. Now, it's bleeding into the US market. And operating profit hit 60.5 trillion Juan 42 billion which grew over $550% from a year ago but that was below the estimate of 64 trillion one. So we're getting these numbers that are absolutely stellar year-over-year percentage-wise growthwise uh but they're missing the estimate. So, so, so this is spooking investors like, oh, is is the steam running out? Is is the momentum dying out in the growth, which I mean, year-over-year they're crushing it, but not as good as the expectations. That's what it's all about in the market. And if they miss expectations, which they are, they're getting punished for it. And you know, AI memory stocks that are missing expectations now in this type of market, yeah, they're getting punished for it, guys. And net income, oh my goodness, surged over,200% year-over-year to 94 trillion one almost about 64.5 billion, which is significantly that was significantly aided by investment asset gains, including the sale of Kioxia uh their Kioxia stake, which I know I'm butchering that. And operating margin maintained an elite level of um where is it at here, guys? I lost it. 76% up from 72% in Q1 [clears throat] obviously due to high pricing power and specialized AI memory and looking at different segments [clears throat] and strategic updates. Cheers by the way guys. Let me get let me get a little coffee in the system here. When it comes to HBM, high bandwidth memory, they accelerated mass uh shipments of HBM4 with um with high operating speeds and power efficiency. Sample shipments for HBM4E are proceeding, [cough and clears throat] excuse me, guys. DRAM and NAND, the average selling price expanded substantially. DRAM up 30% and NAND up around let's see uh where's NAND at up around mid50% range quarteron quarter and the LTA's long-term agreements they finalize multi-year supply deals with roughly 10 key strategic customers to secure stability against typical memory cyclicality and their cash position guys is right around 88 trillion one expanding their they actually expanded their net cash position to 69.4 um trillion one. So it looks like here they grew that which is nice. And if we come down here a little bit further the outlook um capex they're expanding it. They're planning cap X to be around let's see uh to surge roughly 50% to at least 45 trillion Juan $31 billion for the year to ramp up the MI56 or the M156 M15 or X what am I saying the M15X facility and to prepare the Yong clean room for 2027. Um, and management noted that a formal capital return policy remains under evaluation and will be disclosed later in the year. Um, so that's the quick rundown on SKH Heinix's earnings, [clears throat] which again, they crushed it, but they missed estimates uh by a little bit, but they're still doing very well year-over-year looking at the comparables. And it's just the market we're in, guys. If we got a slight miss, especially in these AI memory names where clearly sentiment in the short term is deteriorating, what do you think's going to happen? These stocks are going to get crushed. And again, it's bleeding into the US market with Micron down 6%, SanDisk now about to fall through $1,000. And to be honest, guys, I'm not buying these stocks yet. I'm not buying these stocks yet. And if I were to buy a memory name, it's going to be Micron ticker MU or I would go with a DRAM ETF, uh the DRAM ETF, which is now down 5.5% back at in in the mid40s. So that is where I would put my money if I were to play this uh play this um you know, sector again or this part of the AI trade again. And I don't think the bottom's in yet. I don't. And I'm not here to call bottoms, right? I I I've never been that guy that's like, "Oh, this is the bottom. Time to get in." But, uh, I just don't think we're there yet. So, I guess I'm I'm not calling the bottom. I'm calling for more downside here. I think honestly I think Micron could trickle into um the 600s, right? I think it could fall through 700 into the low mid600s. And that is where it gets very interesting. Once Micron is in a 50% draw down and we get anywhere in this pocket right here, now we're talking if Micron could get anywhere in this window right here between let's say 450 to 500 on the absolute downside to about 600 650. That is where it gets very interesting um to actually start buying and I think at that point we would be due for a massive relief rally. So yeah, just another day in the AI trade, guys. Just another day. We're getting crushed. Um you know, SMH is down not as much, right? I think it's only down, let's see here. SMH is down on the day about 4%. So I mean, yeah, that's a decent drop. Socks is down about 4.6. But stocks like Nvidia, they're actually holding up all right. 2 3% down. Still in the mid 190s, low 190s, which in the grand scheme of things, it's actually not that bad considering how much certain memory names are down. Other stocks in the AI trade, the big dog's actually not that uh, you know, down that much. It's not that bad. um and other names like in the software space, we're seeing a recovery there still. So, money continues to come out of AI of the memory names in the short term and it's continuing to go into software. Now, we have service now pushing $116 per share. It's trying to break out again. It's not there yet, but we are trying to break out of this wedge. You're seeing Palunteer seeing a nice green day today so far. Although it did tank yesterday, so I'm not going to I'm not praising Palunteer too much. CRM's up. Adobee's up 6%. It's one of those days. Clearly money's coming in to software. Although none of these stocks, literally none of these stocks are actually breaking out. They're just seeing substantial relief rallies off the lows, which I'm not buying the breakout yet. I I don't think we're actually breaking out here. Um until Adobe can start pushing 300, until Service Now can start pushing 130, until Palunteer starts pushing 140 again, I don't think we're actually breaking out. I think these are just um relief rallies in the overall um you know downtrend and money's just looking for places to go while AI is getting clapped. And don't worry, in my opinion, not financial advice, I think money is going to rotate back into AI stocks uh pretty soon here. Maybe not this summer, who knows, right? But come September, October, I [clears throat] think we're going to get another run in these stocks. And now's the time to position yourself, you know, when there's pain, when there's uncertainty, if that's what you want to do. You know, if you if you're underexposed to AI, maybe you missed a the run in a lot of these stocks, watch them. Let the dust settle and make your move. Um, position yourself. Forget next week. A lot of people think so short term. They're thinking, [clears throat] they're thinking tomorrow, they're thinking next week. Forget that. Think a couple months down the road, 6 12 months down the road. Position yourself for that. That's the way I'm thinking right now, guys. So, what do you think? Let me know in the comments. Hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe and join my Patreon. If you guys want to keep up with my portfolio updates, my trades, investments, if you want to be a part of my private Discord community, all that's linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, guys, cheers. Take a sip of your coffee. I'll see you all in the next