NOW HERE SHORT TERM YOU CAN TAKE PROFITS BECAUSE THE STOCK'S UP ON A SPIKE.
Contexte
SO MICROSOFT HAS OBVIOUSLY PRICED IN A TON OF AI UPSIDE ALREADY AT THESE LEVELS. IS IT A BUY HOLD OR MAYBE TIME TO TAKE SOME PROFITS? OKAY. NOW HERE SHORT TERM YOU CAN TAKE PROFITS BECAUSE THE STOCK'S UP ON A SPIKE.
Contexte
I SAY WHEN IT HITS, WHEN ANOTHER GUY DOWNGRADES IT AND IT'S 220, THAT'S WHEN I'M GOING TO TELL YOU TO BUY IT. I OWN IT THOUGH.
Transcription Complète
>> MY MISSION IS SIMPLE TO MAKE YOU MONEY. I'M HERE TO LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE'S ALWAYS A BULL MARKET SOMEWHERE AND I PROMISE TO HELP YOU FIND IT. MAD MONEY STARTS NOW. HEY I'M CRAMER, WELCOME TO MAD MONEY. WELCOME TO CRAMERICA MY FRIENDS. I'M JUST TRYING TO SAVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF MONEY. MY JOB IS NOT JUST TO ENTERTAIN BUT TO EXPLAIN THINGS. SO CALL ME AT ONE 800 743 CNBC OR TWEET ME AT JIMCRAMER. THIS MARKET ASTOUNDS ME PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY. THIS WEEKEND IN MY REGULAR THINK PIECE THAT I SEND OUT TO CNBC INVESTING CLUB MEMBERS, I MARVELED AT THE SAME MEMORY STOCKS KEEP GOING UP AND UP AND UP. MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY'VE ALREADY MISSED THESE MOVES. SO I HAVE TO ASK WHAT IF THEY HAVEN'T? SO IN A DAY WHERE THE DOW LOST 273 POINTS HAS TO BE DECLINED 0.52%, NASDAQ DIPPED 0.32%. THAT'S ACTUALLY KIND OF AN UGLY SESSION, MOSTLY BECAUSE OF A RISE IN OIL AND INTEREST RATES. I WANT TO EXPLAIN HOW SOME OF THESE BIG MOVES CAN HAPPEN, AND WHY THEY ACTUALLY MIGHT NOT BE OVER FRONT AND CENTER. THE COMPANIES THAT MAKE MEMORY AND DATA STORAGE PRODUCTS THAT GO INTO THE DATA CENTER. SANDISK, IT'S UP 653% YEAR TO DATE. SEAGATE HAS GALLOPED 261%, MICRON'S UP 254%, AND WESTERN DIGITAL'S UP 211%. THESE MOVES ARE ALL KIND OF INCREDIBLE AND DEFINITELY CRAZY. THESE MEMORY NAMES HAVE BECOME RISKY. THEY HAD BEEN RISKY BOOM AND BUST STOCKS FOR DECADES. THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF SPECTACULAR GROWTH, FOLLOWED BY HORRENDOUS SWOONS THAT WOULD WIPE AWAY ALL OF YOUR GAINS AND THEN SOME. I ALWAYS REGARDED THE MANAGEMENT TEAMS IN THIS BUSINESS AS FINANCIALLY SUICIDAL BECAUSE THEY'D OVERBUILD WHEN TIMES WERE GOOD, SOWING THE SEEDS OF THEIR OWN DESTRUCTION. WHEN THINGS GOT BAD, I WAS ALWAYS RELUCTANT TO RECOMMEND THEM TO YOU BECAUSE OF THESE WILD BOOM BUST CYCLES. THEN ALONG COMES THE DATA CENTER AND THE WORLD SIMPLY CHANGED FOR THEM. THE DEMAND FOR MEMORY CHIPS HAS NOW BECOME SEEMINGLY ENDLESS. THESE COMPANIES HAVE ALL LEARNED THEIR COLLECTIVE LESSON. THEY'RE NOT OVERBUILDING THIS TIME. THEY WANT THE SHORTAGE TO LAST. MEMORIES IN SUCH SHORT SUPPLY THAT ELON MUSK HAS TAKEN AN AXE TO TALK ABOUT HOW IT'S BECOME THE KEY BOTTLENECK TO DATA CENTER GROWTH. MEANWHILE, THE MEMORY MAKERS THEY'VE ADOPTED THIS NEW BUSINESS MODELS WITH LONG TERM AGREEMENTS THAT LOCK IN HUGE GROSS MARGINS FOR MULTIPLE YEARS OUT WITH THEIR CUSTOMERS. THEY'RE BASICALLY BUILDING ONLY TO SUIT. THEY'VE RAISED PRICES TO THE POINT THAT APPLE IS COMPLAINING THAT THEY ARE DRIVING UP THE COST OF YOUR NEW PHONE. CAN WE TRUST THESE COMPANIES AND THEIR STOCKS? NOW THREE OF THEM ARE BUYING BACK HUGE AMOUNTS OF STOCK IN THEIR OPEN MARKET. SANDERS HAS A $15.5 BILLION BUYBACK. SEAGATE'S WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH A $5 BILLION BUYBACK ANNOUNCED LAST YEAR. WESTERN DIGITAL PUT A $4 BILLION IN REPURCHASE AUTHORIZATION EARLIER THIS YEAR. THEY'RE TAKING THAT MONEY AND SENDING IT TO YOU, THE SHAREHOLDER, RATHER THAN INVESTING IN NEW CAPACITY, ONLY MICRON HAS NO BUYBACK. QUIZZICAL THESE USED TO BE SMALLER CAPITALIZATION STOCKS. BUT IN THE TWO YEARS SINCE THE DATA CENTER BUILD OUT STARTED IN EARNEST, EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED. I WANT YOU TO LISTEN TO THESE SPECTACULAR GAINS. WHEN SANDISK WAS SPUN OUT OF WESTERN DIGITAL 18 MONTHS AGO, IT WAS A $7 BILLION COMPANY. NOW IT'S A $262 BILLION COMPANY. SEAGATE'S MARKET CAP HAS GONE FROM $21 BILLION TO $225 BILLION IN THE SAME PERIOD. >> HOUSE OF PLEASURE. >> WESTERN DIGITAL 17 BILLION, AND IT'S NOW 185 BILLION. ONLY MICRON WAS SIZABLE AT 106 BILLION, BUT NOW IT'S A TRILLIONAIRE. >> THAT WAS EASY. >> AND YOU WONDER WHY. I THINK YOU SHOULD OWN SOME INDIVIDUAL STOCKS SIDE BY SIDE WITH YOUR INDEX FUNDS. NOW, YOU MIGHT THINK THESE STOCKS HAVE ALL RUN TOO MUCH. THAT'S THE CONSENSUS THAT I HEAR FROM. BUT THEIR MARGINS, WHICH ARE IMMENSE, HAVE LARGELY BEEN LOCKED IN FOR YEARS OUT. NOW WITH THESE AGREEMENTS, SEAGATE GROSS MARGIN CAME IN AT 52% IN ITS LATEST QUARTER, A RECORD LAST YEAR, IT WAS 37%. WESTERN DIGITAL'S GROSS MARGIN WAS 54%, UP FROM 41% A YEAR AGO. THIS IS INCREDIBLE STUFF, PEOPLE. SANDERS GROSS MARGIN 26% TO 85% ONE YEAR. MICRON HIT 85%, UP FROM 39%. THESE ARE MONUMENTAL NUMBERS. EYE POPPING, UNHEARD OF. I REMEMBER WHEN INTEL COULD EVER GET TO 64 GROSS MARGIN. THAT WOULD BE AMAZING. NOW LISTEN TO WHAT THESE GUYS ARE DOING NOW. PEOPLE HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING THEIR HEADS AROUND THIS ENDLESS DEMAND FOR MEMORY. THEY DON'T BELIEVE THE AGREEMENTS WITH CUSTOMERS WILL HOLD UP. THE BIGGEST FEAR. THEY THINK THAT SAMSUNG WILL BREAK RANKS AND PUT UP FACTORIES TO FLOOD THE MARKET WITH SUPPLY. THAT COULD HAPPEN, BUT NOT ANY TIME SOON. TAKES TOO LONG TO BUILD THE FACTORIES. AND LOOK. THAT'S WHY MICRON SELLS FOR JUST SEVEN TIMES ITS FISCAL YEAR 2027 EARNINGS ESTIMATES, SANDISK TRADES AT EIGHT TIMES. NOW, IF YOU LOOK AT THE FISCAL 2028, WESTERN DIGITAL'S AT 16, SEAGATE'S AT 17. IN GENERAL, THESE STOCKS ARE CHEAPER THAN THE MARKET BECAUSE NO ONE BELIEVES NO ONE. WELL, MAYBE SOME THE PEOPLE ARE MAKING A FORTUNE. LAST WEEK WE BOUGHT A POSITION IN MICRON FOR THE TRAVEL TRUST BECAUSE I TRULY BELIEVE THIS INDUSTRY HAS CHANGED FOR THE BETTER. THAT SAID, I ADMIT TO BEING UNCOMFORTABLE BUYING A STOCK THAT'S MOVED UP THIS MUCH. FORTUNATELY, WE BOUGHT IT AT A BIG DISCOUNT AS IT WAS TRADING WITH THE PRICES AT THAT MOMENT OF THE KOREAN, SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX, NOT SEAGATE, WESTERN DIGITAL AND SANDISK TIMING WAS EXQUISITE. CLUB MEMBERS HAVE TO BE HAPPY, ALTHOUGH AT THE TIME I THOUGHT IT WAS TAKING MY LIFE INTO MY HANDS AND I DID, YOU KNOW, CONCERN THAT IT COULD KEEP GOING DOWN. OF COURSE. SEE, I DON'T REALLY KNOW A SOUL WHO'S REALLY COMFORTABLE BUYING STOCKS THIS HIGH. I CONSIDER MICRON MORE OF A GROWTH STOCK THAN THE OTHERS. SO I CONSOLE MYSELF WITH THE IDEA THAT MAYBE IT'S JUST NOT JUST RESTRICTING OUTPUT THAT HAS MADE THIS THING GO HIGHER. BUT AT SOME POINT, WE ALL KNOW THIS MEMORY SHORTAGE HAS TO END, DOESN'T IT? I DON'T DENY THAT. HOWEVER, I DO QUESTION THE TIMING OF ANY DOWNTURN. I THINK MICRON CAN DOUBLE AGAIN BEFORE THE BOOM COMES TO AN END, ASSUMING THERE IS NO DATA CENTER SLOWDOWN. I KNOW THAT'S A RISKY STATEMENT, BUT THESE LONG TERM AGREEMENTS ARE SPECTACULAR FOR MICRON'S MARGINS. HEY, AND BY THE WAY, GET THIS. WE'RE GOING OUT TO VISIT MICRON LATER THIS WEEK TO INTERVIEW CEO SANJAY MEHROTRA FROM THEIR IDAHO R&D FAB, FABULOUS, FABULOUS. NOT REALLY, BUT I LIKE THAT. I THINK IT'LL BE REVEALING. DON'T MISS IT I CAN'T WAIT. SHOULD BE. IT'LL BE INCREDIBLE. OF COURSE WE KNOW I GOT TO GET STEEL TOED BOOTS. I THINK I HAVE THEM, OF COURSE WE. I KNOW THAT THERE'S NOW A LOT OF PUSHBACK TO BUILDING SITES. THERE COULD BE SOME CRIMPING MEMORY STOCKS. I THINK THERE ARE PLENTY OF TOWNS THAT WANT THEM, THOUGH. THOSE STORIES ARE TOO POSITIVE. THEY DON'T FIT THE NEGATIVE NARRATIVE. BELIEVE ME, THE MEDIA LOVES REPORTING NEGATIVITY BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT ATTRACTS EYEBALLS. OR AT LEAST THEY THINK IT DOES. WHEN I SEE THEIR NUMBERS, I HAVE TO QUESTION IT. BUT I'M AN OUTLIER. I AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT ABOUT SOMETHING THAT MICHAEL SCHRADER, CEO OF CORE, WE'VE SAID WHEN I INTERVIEWED HIM LAST WEEK THAT THERE WAS JUST NO WAY WE WOULDN'T OVERBUILD DOUBLE NEGATIVE. SORRY. HOW WILL WE KNOW WHEN TO STOP WHEN THE DEMAND IS SO GREAT? WHY SHOULD WE EVEN THINK ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW? AGAIN, THOUGH, I CAN'T SEE THE OVERBUILD HAPPENING ANYTIME SOON, SO WHY NOT OWN ONE OF THE MEMORY STOCKS? AS I SAID AT OUR INVESTING CLUB MEETING LAST THURSDAY, YOU OUGHT TO GO PLAY THE REPLAY. THE GRAY BOARD'S ALWAYS, ALWAYS TELL YOU THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. IT'S THE MOST DANGEROUS STATEMENT BECAUSE NOTHING EVER REALLY CHANGES. AND THAT'S WHY SEAGATE, WESTERN DIGITAL, SANDISK AND MICRO WON'T BE ABLE TO CHANGE THEIR STRIPES YET. THAT ATTITUDE HAS SCARED YOU AWAY FROM SOME OF THE MOST INCREDIBLE GAINS I'VE SEEN IN MY CAREER. THESE ARE THE SAME PEOPLE WHO WOULD NEVER BUY CATERPILLAR. THEY WOULD SAY, I TOLD YOU SO WHEN CISCO REPORTED AND GIVE THAT WEAKER GUIDANCE, RATHER THAN THINKING ABOUT WHAT A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, WHICH IS HOW I FEEL, I WOULD BUY CISCO RIGHT HERE BECAUSE OF THEIR NEGATIVITY. I DON'T THINK CATERPILLAR IS CYCLICAL AT ALL THESE DAYS. NOW THEIR TAKEAWAY, BY THE WAY, THIS IS AGAIN THESE GRAYBEARDS OF SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CRASH. YOU KNOW THAT ONE WITH THE CRAZY HEDGE FUND NOT CRAZY OVER LEVERED HEDGE FUND MANAGER THAT THEY SAY HE WAS NOT OVER LEVERED. THEY JUST SAID HE WAS IN THE WRONG STOCKS. I SAY THAT YOU HAVE TO FREE YOURSELF OF THESE CONSTRAINTS AND UNDERSTAND THAT SOMETIMES IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT. SOMETIMES THE OPPORTUNITY IS TOO GREAT AND YOU CAN'T AFFORD NOT TO TAKE IT. NO, IT'S NOT AS STUPID AS SOMETHING LIKE, OH, HE'S SELLING MAY AND GO AWAY. THAT'S REAL CLEVER. BUT THIS WHOLE DATA CENTER MOVE HAS CREATED A GOLD RUSH THAT WILL TURN MANY FORMERLY CYCLICAL STOCKS INTO SECULAR GROWTH WINNERS. THAT'S A VERY RARE METAMORPHOSIS. BUT IT'S HAPPENING. THE DATA CENTERS, AS WE KNOW FROM AMAZON, CAN BE HUGE PROFIT CENTERS. THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THESE COMPANIES ARE TOO STUPENDOUS TO EVEN THINK ABOUT HOLDING THEIR EXPANSION. TOO MUCH MONEY ON THE LINE. AND THAT MEANS THEY NEED THESE COMPONENTS. ASK ANTHROPIC ABOUT THAT. BEST OF ALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVIDIA AND PERHAPS, MAYBE AMD, THESE MEMORY CHIP MAKERS ARE PERHAPS THE MOST INDISPENSABLE OF THE ENTIRE BUILD OUT. MUSK IS RIGHT. MEMORY HAS BECOME THE BOTTLENECK IN THESE FOUR COMPANIES. WELL, YOU KNOW WHAT? IT'S PRETTY GOOD IF IT STAYS THAT WAY. CERTAINLY NOT THEIR FAULT THAT THE PRODUCTS ARE IN SUCH DEMAND. THE BOTTOM LINE, I SAY OWN ONE. WE PICK MICRON FOR THE TRAVEL TRUST BECAUSE OF ITS GROWTH. BUT THE OTHERS HAVE LESS RISK BECAUSE THEY JUST KEEP RETURNING THAT MONEY TO SHAREHOLDERS THROUGH BUYBACKS. IN THE END, THOUGH, THESE MOVES ARE REAL. AND WHILE I ACKNOWLEDGE THAT I'M NOT EARLY, I ACTUALLY DON'T THINK I'M THAT LATE EITHER. HEY, WHY DON'T WE GO TO TONY, MY HOME STATE OF NEW JERSEY? TONY. >> JIM, WHAT'S YOUR THOUGHTS ON HONEYWELL? >> OKAY, HONEYWELL, I FEEL LIKE I HAVE BEEN BEATEN TO A PULP HERE ON THIS THING. I FELT THAT THE SPLIT WOULD BE GOOD. HONEYWELL AEROSPACE WAS A COMPLETE DISASTER. AND I DON'T BLAME ME, I BLAME MANAGEMENT. I DON'T KNOW WHY I SHOULD HAVE TRUSTED HIM, THOUGH. BUT HONEYWELL, THE REGULAR HONEYWELL LOOK, THAT'S VIMAL KAPOOR IS DOING A GOOD JOB. I SAY WHEN IT HITS, WHEN ANOTHER GUY DOWNGRADES IT AND IT'S 220, THAT'S WHEN I'M GOING TO TELL YOU TO BUY IT. I OWN IT THOUGH. BILL. IN MASSACHUSETTS. BILL. >> JIM. A QUICK SHOUT OUT TO SEAN. EVEN WHEN I HAVE PHONE PROBLEMS, HE MAKES SURE I GET ON. I'M A CLUB MEMBER AND I'M REALLY DIGGING IT. >> BROTHER MAN, I LOVE TO HEAR THAT. SEAN. ALSO, CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CLUB. WE HAD A PRETTY GOOD MEETING LAST WEEK AND I'M GLAD YOU REMEMBER. I WISH OTHERS WOULD JOIN. ALL RIGHT. WHAT'S UP JIM? >> IT'S A PLEASURE BEING A CLUB MEMBER. I JUST WANTED TO THANK YOU FOR VERTIV HOLDINGS, AND I WAS WANTING TO PICK UP SOME MORE. WHAT DO YOU THINK, BRO? >> I THINK THAT VERTIV IS GOING TO HAVE A VERY, VERY STRONG YEAR, AND I'M NOT GOING TO FIGHT YOU ON THAT. I THINK THE ORDER BOOK IS INCREDIBLY SOLID. LET'S GO TO ANDREW IN OHIO. ANDREW. >> HOW ARE YOU DOING. BOOYAH JIM. >> BOOYAH. ANDREW WHAT'S GOING ON. >> SO MICROSOFT HAS OBVIOUSLY PRICED IN A TON OF AI UPSIDE ALREADY AT THESE LEVELS. IS IT A BUY HOLD OR MAYBE TIME TO TAKE SOME PROFITS. >> OKAY. NOW HERE SHORT TERM YOU CAN TAKE PROFITS BECAUSE THE STOCK'S UP ON A SPIKE. AND I DON'T LIKE PARABOLIC MOVES LONGER TERM. I THINK THAT MADE A MISTAKE. AND I'LL TELL YOU WHY. BECAUSE THAT QUARTER WAS SO EXCELLENT THAT I REALLY HAVE HAD I'VE HAD TO CHANGE MY VIEW OF BEING A SOFT SUPPORTER TO BEING A STRONGER SUPPORTER. AND SATYA NADELLA. AMY HOOD SUPERB. WHAT CAN I SAY? LET'S GO TO JOHN IN CALIFORNIA. JOHN. >> HOWDY, JOHN. WHAT'S HAPPENING? >> OKAY. 88 I LOVE THAT. THANK YOU. ALIVE THEN. THAT'S GOOD. WHAT'S UP? >> IN APRIL, YOU TALKED ABOUT ABBOTT LABS LABS. I THOUGHT YOU THOUGHT THEY WERE BEING PUNISHED. I DID MY RESEARCH. THEY HIT 81. I GOT IT AT 84. WHAT SHOULD I DO WITH WHAT I HAVE NOW? >> OKAY. PEOPLE FEEL THAT THIS ACQUISITION, THE, YOU KNOW. WELL, THE ACQUISITION MAY NOT MAY NOT BE A GOOD ONE. I DISAGREE. I SAID THAT ABBOTT WAS GOOD. I WISH WE HAD BOUGHT IT FOR THE CHARITABLE TRUST. WE HAD A COUPLE OF DRUG STOCKS THAT DIDN'T GET IN THE QUEUE. IT'S ONLY 20 TIMES EARNINGS. THAT'S STILL TOO CHEAP FOR ABBOTT. I WOULD HOLD ON. ALL RIGHT. THIS DATA CENTER MOVE HAS CREATED A GOLD RUSH IN STOCKS. AND YOU KNOW WHAT. I DON'T THINK IT'S TOO LATE TO GET YOUR STEEL TIP TOES ON THE BOOTS AND GET RIGHT IN THERE. OKAY. JUST DO SOME RESEARCH. CHOOSE WISELY. LISTEN TO THE CLUB. WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD ANALYSIS OF IT BY JEFF MORRIS ON MAD MONEY TONIGHT. THE STOCK OF AIRBNB HAS BEEN ON A TEAR LATELY. SO WHAT'S BEHIND THE MOVE HIGHER. I'M GOING TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS TRAVEL NAME THEN LIKE I MENTIONED WE'RE SEEING A STRONG REBOUND IN STOCKS. BUT HOW SUSTAINABLE IS IT. WELL I'M GOING TO GO OFF THE CHARTS TO FIND OUT. AND YOU'VE BEEN CALLING IN WITH SOME STOCKS THAT I PROMISED TO CIRCLE BACK ON. NOW I'M KEEPING UP MY END OF THE BARGAIN. HOW ABOUT YOURS? DON'T MISS MY DEEP DIVE ON SOME OF THE NAMES THAT STUMPED ME AS PART OF MY HOMEWORK. AND STICK WITH CRAMER. >> DON'T MISS A SECOND OF MAD MONEY. FOLLOW JIMCRAMER ON EX. HAVE A QUESTION. TWEET CRAMER HASHTAG MAD MENTIONS. SEND JIM AN EMAIL TO MADMONEY@CNBC.COM. OR GIVE US A CALL AT ONE 800 743 CNBC. MISS SOMETHING. HEAD TO
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