But if we break this trend line here, then I will definitely be looking at this for a swing trade.
Contexte
Bloom Energy looks like it could have a an extremely nice setup. It's down 41% from highs, but if we break this trend line here, then I will definitely be looking at this for a swing trade.
At that point, I will likely take a position in conl which is the 2x ETF that tracks coin because that tends to outperform Bitcoin when Bitcoin is in a bull market.
But I am looking for a breakout in both Micron and SanDisk before taking this long again.
Contexte
I am also looking for a breakout in memory micron here at the trend line as well as SanDisk. ... But I am looking for a breakout in both Micron and SanDisk before taking this long again.
But I am looking for a breakout in both Micron and SanDisk before taking this long again.
Contexte
I am also looking for a breakout in memory micron here at the trend line as well as SanDisk. ... But I am looking for a breakout in both Micron and SanDisk before taking this long again.
Transcription Complète
Guys, the next investing opportunity is here and Elon Musk just gave you the investing blueprint for the next wave. Now, I promise I'm going to share with you all of the stocks that are mentioned in the bottlenecks that he's referring to, but let's go over what he said first, and then we'll get into the stocks. He says the consensus estimate is that 15 gawatts of AI compute produced in 2027 cannot be turned on in 2027. This is harder than just finding power as you also need to build out all the transformers, wiring, liquid cooling, massive chillers, and complex networking. As I said, I am going to share with you all of the stocks that relate to this bottleneck. I'm also going to tell you why the market has a lot more room to run here. If you take a look at the S&P 500 PEG ratio, price over earnings growth, this is the lowest that it has been in 30 years. And if you take a look at the forward PE ratio, this is the same level that we were in at the bottom of Liberation Day. Coming into the year, the PE ratio for technology was also at 26 1/2. It has since dropped to 21.3, the most lagging of all of the S&P 500 sectors. We'll talk about the Fed at Jackson Hole. The Treasury buybacks have not started. They start on September 9th. And I will be going over stocks to watch this week as well as the Dell and Broadcom earnings. I gave you my blueprint for Nvidia earnings. Happily turned out well. We sold cash secure puts, closed them for 80%, the iron condors also expired for 100% if you held them until expiration. So I will give you what I'm expecting for Dell and Broadcom as well. Let's get right into it. So, as I said, Elon just gave you the investing blueprint for the next wave. And here are the stocks that are associated with those AI bottlenecks that he talked about. Now, I will also tell you how to assess these from a high level because obviously you can't just buy each of the I mean, you can you can do what you want, but you're not just going to blindly buy each of these companies as they are not all created equal. So some of these companies are monopolies or sector leaders. Other ones are up and coming. But for transformers and electrical distribution, you have Eaton which is one of the best all-around in my opinion AI power companies as it doesn't only have to do with uh with electrical distribution but it it also has to do with liquid cooling and chilling as it acquired Boyd Thermal. Now you have GE Verova which supplies the turbines and grid equipment used to generate and move power to to data centers. Some of these stocks we already own like Vertive for instance. This one is the in my opinion the sector leader in liquid cooling. And if you do a little bit of research at the Nvidia rollouts whether it's Vera Rubin or Reuben ultra both Vera Rubin and Reuben Ultra are going to be 100% fully liquid cooled. Continuing on liquid cooling, like I said, we have Eaton again, AAO, which is a niche commercial HVAC maker, much smaller company than these two companies. For networking, a lot of these will be familiar to you, but Arista Networks, otherwise known as AET, Coherent, Broadcom, which we'll talk about since they're reporting earnings this week. Marll reported last week, we'll talk about that as well. Nokia, and AAOI. For power generation, we have Constellation Energy, another stock that we own. GE Vernova, which is also relevant here on the generation side. Bloom Energy, which is another uh stock that we own. They sell on-site oxide fuel cell systems that let data centers generate their own power. Vistra, VST, independent power producer with about 44 gawatts of capacity. Next Era Energy is the last stock on this list. As I said, all of these stocks are not created equal, and you'll want to do research on each of them. Now, if you look at Verta, for instance, it's barely a hundred billion dollar company. Four PE of 28. This is excellent for a growth stock. 5-year revenue ker of almost 19. 21% return on invested capital. Excellent balance sheet. All-time high revenue, all-time high EBIT, gross profit, gross gross profit margin, net income, free cash flow, and earnings per share. They also have a $15 billion backlog showing 109% increase. And if you look at the stock itself, it's currently 33% down from highs. Now, so far, we're not talking about trades here. We're just talking about bottleneck investments for the next couple of years at least. And a lot of these stocks are at a discount. So, even GE Verova is down almost 24% from highs. So, if you take a look at GEV here on Alphascope, by the way, we just rolled out a free 7-day trial with no credit card required. that is a permanent feature of the site. So, make sure that you go to alphascope.trade and get yourself an account and check it out. And if we take a look at a company like Bloom Energy, this company is growing way faster than its valuation can even catch up to. 62 billion market cap 434 PE. If you take a look at its revenue tenure, KGER is almost 30% all-time high revenue. And if you take a look at its revenue in general, last year generated 3 billion and it currently has a backlog of 20 billion and that was to start the year. It's also down almost 41% from highs and Nancy Pelosi just bought into it as well. Now, as I said in my previous video, it still has a downtrend here and you could be prudent and wait for it to break above the down the downtrend before establishing a position. But this is not a trading video. I'm just talking about long-term investing in these bottlenecks here for at least the next couple of years. And the great thing is that a lot of these stocks are down. So even if you take a look at a stock like Eaton, which has just been on a tear, this stock is down almost 16% from highs here. And although you can rewind the video and take a look at this list in its totality, I am going to be doing a mix of fundamentals and technicals to decide which ones I want to invest in and which ones I might want to add because I do already own a couple of these stocks. So when I look at a company like CEG with a clear downtrend, I will want to see CEG break out in the very same way that I want to see Bloom Energy break out of here. And you could apply that same logic to Vertive, for instance. So most of these are high beta stocks and if you want to limit the amount of thrashing that goes on in your portfolio then you will want to wait in my opinion for confirmed technical breakouts in addition to the fundamentals that we're discussing. If you don't care and you just want to buy these for the next 2 to 3 years after you've done your research, by all means. But beyond the fundamentals here, a lot of these are also growth stocks. So you'll want to take a look at their backlog. You'll want to take a look at their contracts. You'll want to take a look at any regulatory impediments that might be that might pose a threat to these companies. You'll want to take a look at their growth as well. It's not just what you can see here on the fundamentals. Now, let's discuss why I think the market has a lot more room to run. And I'll get into more stocks to watch beyond just the AI bottleneck here that Elon had mentioned. And we'll get into Dell and Broadcom earnings as well. So, if we take a look, this is one of the weirdest markets that we've ever seen. First, let's take a look at the number of days since a 20% draw down in the S&P 500. Right now, we're running 913 days. This doesn't even match up to what we saw in 2020 and before where we had days without a draw down of 20% or more. And the era that everyone likes to compare this to the dot level that was 31 3,100 days without a 20% draw down. So we're not even a third of the way to the dot level. Not saying that we we have to match that exactly, but everyone loves to compare us to this era. Now let's take a look at earnings. Earnings and stock prices tend to move hand in hand over time. But this right here, you could see that earnings in the orange have consistently traded above the price of the S&P 500. And we tend to see the S&P 500 not only move in line with earnings, but also catch up to the earnings line. Another way, and this is an extremely weird market, is the this is the highest negative correlation between low volatility and high volatility stocks. In most markets, they move together. In some of the most dislocated markets we we have, the negative correlation is super high and now it's the highest. Technology has also massively underperformed this year. We came into the year with a 26.5 PE. We're currently trading at a 21.3 PE. Technology is actually one of the cheapest sectors in the S&P 500. And here you can see that the 4 PE of the S&P 500 matches very close to what we saw at the bottom of Liberation Day last year. And this one just absolutely blew my mind. This is the lowest PEG ratio in the S&P 500 in at least 30 years. The lower this is, the more undervalued the stock market is. This is price over earnings growth. And right now, this is lower than we were at the bottom of 2020 or even at the bottom of the 2008 recession. So, I do think that this market has a lot more room to run. Now, in the interim, we still face midterm seasonality, right? We still face a threat from midterm seasonality. Obviously, we know that September is typically the worst month, midterms or not, in the year. And although the market here, in my opinion, doesn't look so clear in the short term. Like, I can't tell you between September and October if we'll actually get a major downturn or if the market will chop or if the market will continue higher. I actually cannot tell you based on just this ugly sideways consolidation that we had in the indices, but I do think that this market can go a lot higher within the next 1 to two years. Now, before I get into the stocks that I want to watch this week, let's talk about the Fed at Jackson Hole really quick. And I'm not going to spend too much time on the Treasury buybacks. Just know that they haven't started yet and they plan on starting on September 9th. So, we'll see what effect that has on long-term yields. But I did an analysis in the Discord about Kevin Wars's speech at Jackson Hole. Now, I thought, as I said in my video, my last video, that I thought there was a chance he would talk neutral. However, the market perceived this definitely as somewhat hawkish. So, here's basically what he said. He said that although the inflation readings are better than expected, they don't tell him that underlying trends have improved and that inflation is still an issue regardless of any readings that have come out. He doubled down that it's the Fed's job to deliver sta stable prices and chewed away any notion that employment is weak. He said employment is strong and right now the Fed is worried about bringing down prices. He still gave no forward guidance and still refuses to define a reaction function. What's interesting is the chances of a rate hike went from 34% before the speech to now 57%. The next FOMC is September 16th. I personally don't think that the Fed is going to raise rates. In my opinion, I think they're going to continue to see what the bond market is doing and let the bond market do the tightening for them because rates are still going absolutely bananas. Now, what stocks am I going to be watching this week in terms of swing trades for me? This is still a pretty riskoff environment. Now, I am looking at Nvidia here, and I think Nvidia is undervalued in any any of this range here for the long term. I did a full earnings summary in the Traveling Trader Academy. Total revenue up 106% year-over-year. Data Center revenue 117% year-over-year. Earnings per share up 128% year-over-year. maintaining 75% gross margins. Now, its forward year 2028 earnings per share is around $13.15. And based on its current PE, if it was just to maintain at 28 PE, Nvidia share price would be $364 if it can deliver that level of earnings per share next year, which there's no reason to believe it can't. So, I do think Nvidia is a no-brainer buy for the long term here. I don't think that there is particularly a swing trade here. In terms of swing trades, as I said, I'm looking at some of the energy stocks. Bloom Energy looks like it could have a an extremely nice setup. It's down 41% from highs, but if we break this trend line here, then I will definitely be looking at this for a swing trade. The same goes for Vertive VRT. I'm also looking to see if we get a pullback on Coin to the 21 EMA. At that point, I will likely take a position in conl which is the 2x ETF that tracks coin because that tends to outperform Bitcoin when Bitcoin is in a bull market. And we did see a confirmed breakout in Bitcoin. So that's definitely on watch this week. And although I'm bullish on semiconductors for the long term, especially with draw downs in Broadcom, in Marll, in Intel, I want to see if we can take out that low on the chips. Now, I'm already invested for the long term, but I think taking out that low would be a a fantastic asymmetric setup for the following few months if we could do that. And we absolutely smash service now going from the '9s all the way up to 144. But I think we might see some resistance here. Although my long-term price target on Service Now from the write up that I did in the Discord, if it is to deliver on its EPS next year, I think the EPS estimate is around $5 per share for full year 2028. If it trades at a conservative 50x multiple, conservative for now, the stock price would be around $250. But I do think there is a chance that we see some interim weakness here. I am also looking for a breakout in memory micron here at the trend line as well as SanDisk. Now we are seeing the typical uh retrace or the typical consolidation from Korea here. And if you take a look at previous periods where we did hit a high and then saw a drop off. The consolidation periods actually lasted a fairly long time. So from the low to when we broke out, this lasted about 49 days and we just hit the low back at the end of July. So we're approaching about, you know, 34 days here. If we take a look at the last time that we topped off and and hit a low, this one lasted about 46 days before we broke again. So this is very typical what's going on here with Korea. But I am looking for a breakout in both Micron and SanDisk before taking this long again. But you could see this very tight coiling here. So those are the stocks that I'm watching this week. Again, most of them do require breakouts, at least for me. But let's talk about Dell and Broadcom earnings because this week we do have Dell and Broadcom earnings as well as Paula Alto Networks, Hulip Packard, and Snowflake. But if we take a look at Dell and Broadcom earnings, remember I gave you guys my plays for Nvidia sold an iron condor as well as cash secure puts. Banked on both of those. But if we take a look at Broadcom earnings or sorry, Dell earnings, the Dell does beat the expected move 58% of the time. Now, that's not enough for me to trade earnings, but if you take a look, the average return for a strangle on Dell is 151%, even though it has about a 60% win rate. If that's enough for you, then go ahead and get a strangle. The cool thing that I like about Dell is that when it actually ends up red after earnings, it's a pretty small move versus when it ends up green, it's a pretty huge move. So, this might also be a contender for selling puts once again, but definitely not an iron condor. And if you did do a strangle or a straddle, it only has about a 60% win rate, but the strangle has a 151% average return. Now, if we take a look at Broadcom, so that for me, the play would be still cash secure puts on Dell for Broadcom. the play here. Oh, it's the same. 58% of the time it it misses the expected move or sorry, beats the expected move, but the average return for the strangle is 62% even though it also has about a 60% win rate. To me, this is not enough to trade Broadcom earnings. Now, although I am very bullish on Broadcom for the long term, uh I'm probably not going to trade the earnings, but I will likely trade Dell earnings. And on Friday, we saw Marll drop 10% after earnings. And here's my take on it. They beat expectations and they raised guidance. So, absolutely stellar performance on earnings, but the stock still took a 10% hit. Now, when the stock is up 190% over the last year, beating estimates by a little bit isn't enough to satisfy the price for perfection sky skyhigh expectations. There was also a note regarding the Google revenue and how they might not not see financial payoff until 2029. And although I think Broadcom is a better company than Marll, Marll does have more upside because it is a much cheaper stock. Currently, Marll's market cap is 189 billion. And if you compare this to Broadcom's market cap, that's 1.75 trillion. So Marll is had does have more upside even though it is more expensive and it is a valued much lower than Broadcom but it's more expensive from a PE multiple standpoint. Now we know Marll's high beta and although I think this is an overreaction if Marll closes below the weekly fair value gap we could start testing the 200 and below. So from a short-term price standpoint Marll still doesn't look great unless we break this downtrend. But from a pure value perspective over the next couple of years, I think Marll has a lot more room to grow. And I just want to remind you of a couple things. We've already had corrections of minus 10% in the NASDAQ, two of them this year. We've never had three in a bull market in the same year. And secondly, for people that are so terrified of draw downs, let's just say that the QQQ does drop 20% this year during the midterms or something. Look at what the six-month 12-month threeyear and 5year returns if that happens. You wish that could happen based on these returns here. There it's just purely asymmetric. And if you want to trade live with me every single day, market open and you want access to my swings, including all of the details of my options plays, my stock plays, my long-term analysis, as well as my overall macro outlook. and you want to day trade live with me and the crew every single day, make sure that you click the link in the description. In my opinion, it is the greatest value on the market. Oh yeah, did I include that we also sell options and I did sell a bunch of Nvidia CSPs as well. So, make sure that you come and join us. Also, I will have much more detail as to which of these stocks, the stocks that Elon had mentioned, or at least the sectors that Elon had mentioned, which stocks in those sectors I will actually start positions in. So, click the link below, come join us, make sure that you get yourself a free trial of Alphascope if you want to try it. Subscribe to the channel, hit that notification bell. Oh yeah, I am releasing a lot more midweek videos as well. Hope you guys like them. Hit that notification bell. Stay safe out there, traders. Peace.
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