… access to other things as well, but that is for the gold Patreon tier. Enjoy that. Okay. All right, ladies and gentlemen, listen. What stock am I buying for the next one year, next three years, next 5 years, and why? Here we go. One year. AMD without question. AMD without question. AMD is going to be the most exciting stock in the stock market next year from a growth perspective. And so, I believe that stock will still show momentum. I do not believe that one has even reached close to all-time high. you know, I don't…
AMD without question. AMD without question.
Contexte extrait par IA
"One year. AMD without question. AMD without question."
…erested in selling AMD right now. Just no thank you. Okay, there will be a moment when I start to cash my AMD shares, but not not at 477, 377 or anywhere in those ballparks. Okay, no thank you. Next three years, what stock am I looking at? My favorite stock over the next three years is probably a surprising one um to a lot of individuals out there because it's not a very popular company. Um and that is Celsius. Celsius Holdings. It's a $30 stock as of right now. That's my favorite stock over the next three years. And when it comes to Celsius, like that's just one that has had so much bad news already baked into it. And so when I look at Celsius in 2027, 2028, I'm …
My favorite stock over the next three years is probably a surprising one um to a lot of individuals out there because it's not a very popular company. Um and that is Celsius. Celsius Holdings.
Contexte extrait par IA
"My favorite stock over the next three years is probably a surprising one ... and that is Celsius. Celsius Holdings."
…tock for the next five years, uh it's really between these two particular stocks. It's between Meta and Amazon. The stock I would pick, see, I'm a little more attracted by upside rather than risk. If it was about risk, I would pick Amazon. If it's about upside, I pick Meta. And the reason being is I believe within the next 2 years, Zuckerberg cuts that cap back significantly. Right now, he's spending like a drunken sailor. He's going to continue to spend like crazy in 2027. stock probably gets hit and he's go…
… Um, you know, that's just so hard to come by, you know, so hard to come by those sorts of companies that you can see how they have a 10-year runway of growth with a Ford P under 20. Come on, man. You don't get many of those opportunities. CRM, Salesforce, that one remains a buy. It's not as good of a buy certainly as it was, you know, 3 to six months ago when it was like a steel deal, but it stock is still a buy. $277,000 position. Uh, no intentions to sell that one. Honest continues to run. Honest honestly, likel…
…crazy. Celsius, that's one I want to continue to buy. I'm up, you know, $29,000 on in the public account, but I want to continue to add more Celsius shares. I don't mind raising my cost basis here. This 28 2634, I wouldn't mind raising it. American Express remains a buy. That's one's a great buy. I would love to build that into about a 5% waiting in the portfolio. Estee Lauder, say it louder for the people in back. That one remains a buy. Um probably just a hold for me in the public account right now becau…
…e to add more Celsius shares. I don't mind raising my cost basis here. This 28 2634, I wouldn't mind raising it. American Express remains a buy. That's one's a great buy. I would love to build that into about a 5% waiting in the portfolio. Estee Lauder, say it louder for the people in back. That one remains a buy. Um probably just a hold for me in the public account right now because I got other stocks that have my attention like Medic Express, Celsius, those sorts of stocks. Um yeah. Then we have Palanteer. Um, I wouldn't call Palanteer a buy. It's…
Estee Lauder, say it louder for the people in back. That one remains a buy.
…king. You know, almost $175,000. So, hey, it goes to 300, you know, we're talking about, you know, a $300,000 position. So, I don't think it's gone there, but if it did, I'm gonna be happy. 400 thou $400. That's a $400,000 position, right? Elf on a Shelf remains a buy. Not as good of a buy as it was a few months ago when I was buying it. It was 49, but it's still a buy at 108. And um that one has significant upside ahead still over the next several years. Service Now, that one's still early in its move j…
…t. It was 49, but it's still a buy at 108. And um that one has significant upside ahead still over the next several years. Service Now, that one's still early in its move just like CRM is. So, long way to go there. Now, 50,000 on that one. Netflix is another stock I want to buy more shares of. I'm hoping Netflix stays lower. It's kind of been bouncing. I want it to be in a lower place rather than a higher place because I want to build the position a lot bigger. I would love Netflix to be a 5 to 7% waiting in the portfolio. Nike,…
Netflix is another stock I want to buy more shares of.
…n that one. Up 25,000. Revolve should probably be a little bit bigger of a position. Not a lot bigger. I'd probably like to get it somewhere around the SoFi range of like 2 2.1%. Great income statement, balance sheet management team there. Google McDougall. I wouldn't call it a buy anymore. I think it's either a hold or a sell. At some point in time, I should probably take the rest of my profits, but it's just like, do I really want to sell? Like, it's only $74,000. I kind of like holding Google. Gives me some comfort. And then, uh, Fubo Fubo stock's starting to …
Google McDougall. I wouldn't call it a buy anymore. I think it's either a hold or a sell.
… either a hold or a sell. At some point in time, I should probably take the rest of my profits, but it's just like, do I really want to sell? Like, it's only $74,000. I kind of like holding Google. Gives me some comfort. And then, uh, Fubo Fubo stock's starting to come back to life. 11-11. That might be a sign I need to buy more shares. Yeah, Fubo. I mean, it's in the best financial position I've ever seen it in. And, uh, it's come a long way. So, I think uh Fubo looks good. All righty, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Oh, boy. We'…
Fubo stock's starting to come back to life. 11-11. That might be a sign I need to buy more shares.
Contexte extrait par IA
"Fubo stock's starting to come back to life... That might be a sign I need to buy more shares."
Transcription Complète
Happy Labor Day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome into today's video. So, we got some big things to get into in this video here today. Investing $1 million into one stock. So, if you told me I had to invest a million dollars in one stock for the next year, the next three years, the next 5 years, I'm going to tell you in this video what stocks I would pick and why. I want to really explain this uh in this video here today why I would pick these particular stocks over a one-year span, over a threeear span, and over a 5year span. Once we get done going through that, I want to talk about earnings for this week. if there's anything that is excites me for this week. Then we'll react to two clips in this one here today since this is a reaction channel. We're going to react to this one of Snowflake CEO talking. Uh really important. I don't care if you own anything in the semi in in the semiconductor trade or AI trade in general. Uh very important to hear these CEOs cuz it's a domino game and if one company has any sort of issues, it leads to another company having problems. Um right now everything seems to be going pretty great. So it's just, you know, perfection. But uh really important to always listen to CEOs. Then we're going to react to a 15minute beast one here with Tom Lee. Looking forward to react to that. And then after that, I'm going to show you guys the entire public account which is getting close to $5 million at this point in time. Going to show you every single stock I own in that particular portfolio. And we'll talk about what positions I'm thinking about selling, buying, all that good stuff in this video here today. Okay. I appreciate you all for joining me as always. Hope you appreciate me covering this video for you guys here on Labor Day. It's busy times. All I need from you is just want to smash that like button if you've not already done so. if you have already done so, I appreciate you in the biggest way. Uh, also, just so you guys know, there's only a few hours left on that massive uh, gold tier Labor Day sale we're having. I'll put that as a pin comment down there today. If you watch this video in the first 8 hours, uh, you'll be able to get access to that. If you watch this like 24 hours from now, the deal is going to be long gone. So, uh, for all those that are looking access to the gold tier, that's your chance. Uh, access to become a master stock course, the loss lessons, access to see the stocks I'm buying and selling each week. Um, you get access to other things as well, but that is for the gold Patreon tier. Enjoy that. Okay. All right, ladies and gentlemen, listen. What stock am I buying for the next one year, next three years, next 5 years, and why? Here we go. One year. AMD without question. AMD without question. AMD is going to be the most exciting stock in the stock market next year from a growth perspective. And so, I believe that stock will still show momentum. I do not believe that one has even reached close to all-time high. you know, I don't think it's reached a multi-year top yet, right? AMD is going to eventually reach a multi-year top, but it's not yet. And the reason being is AMD still has insane growth, not only in 27 ahead, but then 28 and into 29. Um, and then, you know, they're just later stage in regards to or I should say earlier stage in regards to their growth cycle compared to somebody like an Nvidia or some of these other companies that have been prospering while AMD was kind of floundering. And so the big moment that's happens next year is AMD overtakes Nvidia in regards to the revenue growth rate. And so that's going to be a very exciting thing that's going to happen. So AMD without question over a one-year span, that's the stock to be in. And um yeah, you know, where's AMD? I think AMD has a great opportunity to go somewhere between we can call it $700 and $1,000 in the next 12 months. So that's a lot of upside, you know, for a stock that's 477. I believe the stock's going somewhere between 700 and a,000 somewhere in there over the next 12 months. That shows kind of my level of conviction in regards to that stock. And that's why I'm not interested in selling AMD right now. Just no thank you. Okay, there will be a moment when I start to cash my AMD shares, but not not at 477, 377 or anywhere in those ballparks. Okay, no thank you. Next three years, what stock am I looking at? My favorite stock over the next three years is probably a surprising one um to a lot of individuals out there because it's not a very popular company. Um and that is Celsius. Celsius Holdings. It's a $30 stock as of right now. That's my favorite stock over the next three years. And when it comes to Celsius, like that's just one that has had so much bad news already baked into it. And so when I look at Celsius in 2027, 2028, I'm looking at a company that's going to have a very clean story. I think it's going to have very strong growth rates and you're going to see margins uptick significantly in 2027 2028 and profitability uptick significantly in 2027 2028. Then you have the bu the building of the balance sheet stronger. Then it's like what do we do with all this money coming in? Do we do share buybacks? And then just a couple more years of Alani being integrated I think is going to be very comforting feeling for that particular company. So Celsius I think sets up very very well. you know, within the next three years, I think think Celsius likely goes to, you know, $60 to $90 a share. So, we're talking a double up or triple up over the next two to three years here. So, significant upside ahead for Celsius in my personal opinion. Okay. And then the last one, what stock would I or you know, if you said I got to go invest a million dollars into a stock for the next five years, uh it's really between these two particular stocks. It's between Meta and Amazon. The stock I would pick, see, I'm a little more attracted by upside rather than risk. If it was about risk, I would pick Amazon. If it's about upside, I pick Meta. And the reason being is I believe within the next 2 years, Zuckerberg cuts that cap back significantly. Right now, he's spending like a drunken sailor. He's going to continue to spend like crazy in 2027. stock probably gets hit and he's going to end up cutting back and so I think that sets up for much more moderate capex numbers in 28 29 2030 and uh I think that's going to give a very comforting feeling then you tack on nice growth for the company as well great profitability and it's not at the crazy PE ratio and I think we'll have a party in regards to uh meta at that particular time right Amazon sets up great obviously the e-commerce business continues to build uh and then you got AWS growth accelerating So, I think Amazon sets up great as well. That's another one that's going to have a crazy capex number in 2027, but then I think they'll moderate significantly in 28, 29, 2030. And I think that will help that stock overall as well. So, those are my favorite stocks for the next one year, next 3 years, and next 5 years. And why? Okay. Now, as far as earnings this week, there's not a lot going on uh for earnings at least, like we're we're through, you know, earning season really at this point in time. Just some stragglers. You have Oracle, which is an important one to keep an eye on because that can move the semiconductor trade a little bit. It can move the AI trade a little bit. Uh Adobe, I mean, they always come in with solid numbers. I'm sure they're coming in with solid numbers. We'll hear what the situation is with the new CEO. RH, Restoration Hardware, that's one I'm going to be keeping a close eye on there. Uh my hope is it goes down as far as the stock price. We'll see. Kroger's an interesting one to pay attention to just for you get a good gist of inflation inflation and what's going going on there. Okay, let's react to a couple videos and we'll get into the public account and I'll show you all those positions there and talk about what I'm thinking about buying, selling, all that good stuff. >> Shares are surging after the company beat expectations, raised fullear product revenue outlook, and pointed to accelerating demand for its AI offerings. The company says AI is creating a quote flywheel effect across the business. The stock is on track for one of its best days on record currently up 21%. Let's bring in Sidhar Rup Swami Snowflakes CEO for a first on CNBC interview. It is good to see you sir. Congratulations on the market reaction to the quarter here. Uh what just help us explain for our audience what the key drivers were for all of that outperformance in the quarter. >> Thanks for having me Leslie. Uh AI is indeed a flywheel for us. there's more data coming on to Snowflake because having data on Snowflake makes it AI ready and we have uh great AI products co-work and Coco that lets our customers get value from the data very very quickly which in turn drives momentum for new customers and new data and that's why we had such a stellar quarter posting $1.49 49 billion in product revenue at 37% year-on-year growth. >> There is a question about, you know, obviously your your growth is accelerating now. There's a question about the durability of that acceleration into the future and whether customers are just pulling ahead their AI related spending or they'll continue to to do so in the forthcoming quarters. What do you say to that? >> Uh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Before the gentleman answers, let me answer for him. Listen, we're we're way early way early with the spend for these sorts of companies. So when we're talking about AWS, when we're talking about Google Cloud, uh even Azure, uh maybe a little bit to a lesser extent, but still them, uh when you talk about all the software companies like the Salesforce, Service Now, those sorts of companies, we're really really early, like insanely early. Okay, we're much later stage semiconductor cycle. Like we're probably mid semiconductor cycle. We probably got two great years left, 2027, 2028 for the semiconductor cycle. and then a major slowdown there. But in terms of of these sorts of companies, whether you're talking to Snowflake or like I said those those other companies I named previously way early, way early. At some point in time, their growth rate will peak in terms of the percentage growth rate and then the comps will get very very tough, you know, a year from now or a couple years from now. But man, right now, dude, this is like we're like first second inning for these companies. >> There's a lot to go in terms of migrations. there uh is billions upon billions of dollars of spend on legacy data platforms which just are not that scalable. They're not that AI ready. So we see robust demand all across. But the more important part of this story is that just the nature of the projects that we are able to do for our customers has gone from providing simple analytics to actually helping them optimize how work happens. uh we have done a bunch of amazing things with our sales teams which is a lot more efficient because we're using our AI products. So we are uh not only bringing more data onto Snowflake but we're expanding the capabilities that our customers can deploy on top of Snowflake. >> Uh Snowflake's role then as this um kind of this interim layer uh I guess the way that companies are going to rationalize their data and utilize AI. Why is that a sustainable position that you're in? Um, in other words, can these companies not directly interface with the models? What is it that uh that generates value from what you provide? >> Yeah, a data platform is a lot more than just a technical capability. Obviously, it is uh running the core data operations effectively, but it's also about providing governance. We have a sales data set, one single data set that's available to pretty much the whole company, but it's really important that the information I see is very different from the information that an individual employee managing one account can see. This is what we've been doing for many many years. So, it's that context and governance that really matters for AI and that's what we can provide as opposed to just getting an API from a model provider. as you do pivot and it's there's definitely been a lot of high hopes put into the infrastructure layer of software. How do you see kind of the competitive landscape shaping up as you do kind of you know bridge out into other markets that uh you may not have previously been in. This is a pretty remarkable moment in time, Leslie, where I think the distance between a data platform and software has rapidly shrunk because of uh coding agents like Google. I think the other interesting phenomena that's going on is that the distance between software and value that's created for customers which previously depended on years and years of system integration work that has also massively shrunk. So I think this is a big new opportunities for companies like Snowflake that are progressive and forwardlooking about what we do. >> Yeah. So the the takeaway, what's the takeaway before we get into Tom Lee and then we get into the nearly $5 million Fidelity uh public account there and what moves them think about making there. Listen, the takeaway is we're really really early with in regards to growth for these particular companies. Whether we're talking to Snowflake or like I said if you're talking about a Salesforce service now like we're not even like the first inning we're like pregame for those companies um there's a long way long way for those companies to run and when I say long way I'm talking like 5 10 years of a long runway not like oh like a year or two no like 5 10 years we're much further along semiconductor cycle but this I'm just telling you guys like we're so early in regards to all that okay let's get into Tom Lee beast here and then we'll get in the public account. >> He's a CNBC contributor and he's back at Post 9. >> Well, how much time we got left? 8 hours and 44 minutes left on the deal. Oh boy, it's almost done. >> Welcome back. >> Great to see you. >> Good to have you with this month that's now upon us. How are you feeling? >> Well, um I know people are edging into September cautious because markets are down, oil's up, yields are up, and people are talking about the seasonality. I'm going to be contrarian. think this is a setup for actually September to be a strong month for stocks. >> Why? >> Well, I think one is that the inflation fears are likely to quell this month. We have the jobs report on Friday. Next week is August CPI and then we have of course the FOMC rate decision in September. I think the sequence of those events is going to show inflation is weakening and I think the odds of September hike might actually drop to zero. So are you overly are you too optimistic about this market ignoring some of the challenges that you did mention inflation higher rates higher oil uh you know more hostilities in the Middle East among other issues around the AI trade data centers etc. Yeah. And of course, um it makes sense to be worried about these things, but 7,9800 8,000 to me should be a level where investors are bullish. Like that's really when markets top is are people are bullish. You know, the these highs were made in August when people are cautious and people are cautious here. So to me, I think there's a wall of worry here that actually should be buyable. I mean, more concerns, as you know, have historically been buying opportunities and the AI trade still has a lot of strengthening fundament. So, it it is interesting to me. >> Not sure if you guys saw the latest AI investor sentiment data, but I was going over that with the private group here um you know, a few days ago, and if I recall, it looked like the market was starting to turn a little more bullish than usual um in regards to bullish sentiment, but bearish sentiment is still severely above the normal amount of bearish sentiment in stock market. So, weird market. It's just not a lot of people neutral. It's either people are bulls or bears. It's weird >> that you do have now a growing chorus of caution. >> Yes. >> From many different corners. Citadel security Scott Rubner I highlighted a lot of this on halftime. I'm going to do it again because he says the near-term riskreward has changed and he points out say earnings were great but they're gone now. They're they're behind us. Retail remains a buyer but historically they become smaller in September. systematic exposure has rebuilt. The corporate bid is going to fade. Blackout windows come back, so he can't do the buybacks. And then after a significant collapse in volatility, now that's behind us, too. He says he would use strength to reduce exposure and add inexpensive protection goes on to say, not looking for a broader bearish turn, but a tactical reset. What do you make of that? >> Uh, those are all valid points. If what's interesting is I think that described a lot of the crypto trade last month. You know, V was down, retail was smaller, and we had a violent 30% rally. Crypto, believe it or not, has historically led the S&P by roughly a month. So, I I think the setup is very similar for equities. I mean, in fact, the bottom might even be today for equities. >> What makes you think that the the the crypto rebound could have been for for a lot of different reasons? intervention by the Treasury Secretary in the bond market co you know calls attention to a higher degree to you know $40 trillion deficit that that whole deal. >> So why do you think that what may have been a singular moment actually actually has legs? >> Well I think that when I look at the stock market today I think one of the most loudest things people talk about is inflation and uh the fact that inflation's been sticky. You know, we wrote about this last night that, you know, when the Fed is Fed studies have shown the core PCE might have a flaw in it because of quote the impact from software accessories, which is flash memory, it's accounting for a third of all the inflation, excess inflation this year, but most people in their lives don't have flash memory inflation. >> No, but they have like gasoline tank inflation. >> Correct. So, and gasoline, you know, is unfortunately something the Fed can't control, but the other components of inflation seem to be in line. core PCE if you adjust it is actually almost mirrored on top of CPI which is 24. So if we get a two four print next week on CPI I think the market loses its anxiousness about inflation. >> Do you think people are getting too cautious too soon? I mean because JP Morgan's trading desk we're moving to tactically cautious neutral view. Wells Fargo we're turning cautious on equities. All these people are wrong. >> Well as you know they're probably not wrong but when everyone turns cautious that means consensus has priced in a cautious scenario. And unless the economy is about to inflect downwards, as you know, the cautiousness then >> creates stocks can go up on bad news. That's actually when the last seller sold, that's when markets rebound. >> We've talked a lot every time. I think you've been on recently this data center issue which is now bubbled up to the to the point of feels like a boil or or on the verge of a pretty steady boil. >> What's the impact of that on the broader market, do you think, as September begins? No, it it's a real issue cuz as as we talked about it's resonating. >> So the question is when does when does a market want to deal with the issue we have and the issue let me be very crystal clear. It's not the Fed and if the Fed's going to lower or raise interest rates a quarter point. It's not whether inflation's just a little warmer than we thought or a little cooler than we thought or in line. That's doesn't irrelevant. Okay. We have one massive issue the market has to deal with and the question is when does the market want to deal with this? What is the issue? I'll tell you what the real issue is. The big one capex numbers for next year. That's the big issue. Whether Fed lowers or raises interest rates a little bit or midterm blah, it's irrelevant. All that matters really is what's the capex numbers next year? because if they're too insanely high, they're going to wreck all those, you know, MAG stocks that are not named Nvidia or Apple. So, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, they're all getting smashed next year. Okay? And so, there's going to be start to be a lot of worries about like what's those capex numbers? Are they going to go too high with them? Right? Additionally, let's say they're too low. then everybody's going to start to worry about who the biggest company in the whole stock market, the one that matters more than any other stock and that's Nvidia. So at some point in time the market's going to get very very concerned with this. So the question is does it want to worry about it now in September, October? Does it want to worry about now or would it rather just say let's cross that bridge when we get to that bridge we could start worrying about that more toward the end of this year and into the beginning of next year. I mean, the market probably would likely worry about that more at the end of this year into the beginning of next year because that would be much closer to getting those capex numbers because you're going to get those capex numbers likely in February of 2027. So, we'll cross that bridge when we get to that bridge. But, um, that's the big thing that's coming. That's the really big thing >> with voters and we're seeing Republican governors sort of siding with that in and supporting moratoriums. Um, I just think the AI industry needs to do a better job of explaining the benefits and I think that's I think they've gotten the message. It is creating jobs and it's creating benefits for users and of course it's strategically important for the US. So I think that this is definitely headline issues even into the midterms. But once that's behind us, I think the AI sort of return on investment story is what's important and those stocks will rebound. >> Does it does it change anything about the near-term trajectory for the AI trade? You know, there's a difference obviously between how people feel about this issue and how investors should react based on how the people feel. >> Yeah. >> It feels like the trade itself has been impacted by all of the negative headlines and the polling and the rhetoric that's been out there. Do you think so? >> Yeah, it definitely has. And I think we have to keep in mind three things. One is of course a lot of people have made money in AI stock. So they're going to be involved with a trade, but there's going to be churning between bottlenecks and semis and memory and downstream ideas. I think we're going to witness churning. And of course, the third is as long as this is out there, multiples can't really expand. So it does sort of put a cap on it for now. >> Are you still looking for a sizable pullback before a nice rebound? And and could this be what we're about to encounter? Well, I think we're going to get an index level um correction because we've had a lot of churning within AI and MAGS this year, >> but I think it has to coincide with bullishness and that hasn't registered yet. So, I'm I'm kind of saying I think the draw down period occurs when we start to see people bullish. That's why I'm leaning towards September being a great month for >> Tom like I don't know a few weeks ago we were saying the opposite. We're saying like everybody's too bullish. We were asking the question, you know, is there too much optimism in the market? Is there too much complacency? What if the VIX got to like 14 or or even under? >> So, how? >> Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold your horses. One flip to clapjack in a moment. Scott, listen. Let's not confuse complacency and bullishness. Okay, those are two very different things. Complacency is people just kind of sitting on their hands and being like, I don't really want to make a big move at all. I don't want to make a big buy. I don't want to make a big sell. I'm just chilling right now. I'm just holding through. Right. Um, and then there's enthusiasm and bullishness, which is people like, I got to grab every share I can. I got to go margin. I got to go. And we don't have we don't have that sort of market. You can you can make an argument that we have a complacent market and people are like, I don't really feel a need to do protection on my portfolio, right? But I think it's, you know, look at the AI investor sentiment numbers, listen to the commentary. I think it's very difficult to say, oh, we got some market that's just like roaring with bullishness. Can we have reversed all of that now where we're thinking well now there's all of a sudden a pickup in cautious so that that's got to be bullish. >> Yeah, I think part of it is that sentiment hasn't aligned with positioning. For instance, margin debt shrank in July it and it probably didn't rise much in August and now this month it could be weakening. So we don't have excess positioning and then the the reliable sentiment measures like AI are still showing negative sentiment. So, I think as long as people are cautious, we're more likely to to be hired rather than lower. >> All right, let's add some voices into the conversation if we could. Let's add CNBC contributor Capital Area Planning's Malcolm Ethridge and PNC's Young Mach. Good to have both of you. I I hope you heard the conversation. Young, I'll go to you. Um Tom obviously put >> Hey, this man's greedy right here. Took all the hair. Come on, Tommy. >> It's forth a contrarian view to some of the cautious takes that are out there and circulating today. Where do you come down? >> Well, I think some of the headwinds are building and that's uh apparent both in yields uh Fed narrative uh as well as what's happening now with oil and diesel prices. The question of what what is priced in is a very relevant question for for sure. I think that probably one rate hike is priced in in terms of longerterm yields. A little bit higher lift here is priced in. probably sticky inflation and stickier gas prices and diesel prices are priced in. So the question I think is then where do we break from here? If it's the case that we actually break downward for inflation or oil and diesel prices, that would be positive for sure. But there's also some risk that we break higher than what's priced in in the market here in terms of long-term yields. uh in terms of where the Fed direction is going to go if it does indeed raise rates in September. Uh there tends to be a momentum of its own once the Fed starts moving in a certain direction. Uh so I I I think risks are two-sided here. Uh but certainly some of these headwinds are pushing against the market. I I wondered though, Young, now the fact that earnings are out of the way and we can't talk about that every day in terms of how great they've been, we're now going to be forced to focus on the things that the market didn't want to focus on before, which was yields and higher oil prices. And the fact that what was said to be a four to five week war is now past 6 months. And now we have even more hostilities and the price of oil back around a hundred bucks or certainly seems like it's heading in that direction. If the situation on the ground remains what it appears to be today. So now we don't have the distractions that got us to where we were before. We have all these concerns. >> Yeah. Well, I I think the market is starting to think in the back of its mind is are the best days behind us? Is that big earning surge behind us? You know, every once in a while once when this type of sentiment starts to take hold, we do get some positive developments that are unexpected such as new AI developments, new technology developments. You can't rule that out here. Uh but it is the case that we're not going to have that sort of upward surprises and strong earning stories and healthy narratives or or robust narratives coming out of companies for quite some time still. Uh so we have to contend with these headwinds and see where they break. So the inflation numbers are going to be very important. what the Fed does and what it signals is going to be very important. Uh and of course what's happening uh with inflation, stickiness, oil prices, uh is going to be day-to-day movements that the market focuses on. >> All right, Malcolm, near-term riskreward has changed, says Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities, as I mentioned with Tom already. Do you agree with that, or are you on team Lee? >> Yeah, I I I don't agree with that. I I think that Tom is characterizing it appropriately. I think the temporary sentiment shift is probably very temporary. I think that all of a sudden uh us caring about the fact that the straight of Hormuse is blocked. It's been blocked for 6 months or we're caring about inflation spiking. It's been spiking for a year or all year uh we've been looking at the 10-year and the 30-year uh yield spiking. So, I think that it's unlikely that investors are suddenly going to find religion uh about all of the different things that could go wrong where you just had an earnings period that confirmed that the AI party is still rolling and you had Jensen Wong come out less than a week ago and tell us we've got visibility into 2028 and the growth numbers are still very strong. So, I think that realistically this is a temporary pause. But wasn't the tell in all of that that the market didn't react like you would have thought in Nvidia knocks the cover off the ball. Jensen Wong guides 70% revenue growth into 28 longer than they've ever gone before. And what have the stocks done since? Not much. >> Yeah, but you've heard me say that Nvidia's good news is good news for everybody else and less so for them, right? as the biggest company in the world at $5 trillion, it takes a ton for them to be able to move a 1 percentage point at any given moment. But you look at the shares of like an Amazon, for example, or Microsoft, for example, or an Apple, all of these companies after uh Q2 earnings reports have done extremely well, especially the days right after the earnings sprint. So, I just think that it's unlikely that suddenly we're going to stop caring about that narrative and really focus on the things that we've been actively ignoring for the for the better part of a year now. >> What do you think? >> Uh I mean, I'm going to agree cuz I think Nvidia's multiple is capt. >> I do agree with Malcolm. Yeah. Uh because uh Nvidia's multiple has been sort of stuck uh in the high 20s in the low high teens, low 20s. >> Wasn't it like the lowest level in like seven years going into going into the print? Yeah, >> I mean it was stuck in a good place. >> That's right. And to me, it's a sentiment barometer that investors can't be that a bullion about AI until, you know, Nvidia follows like a Cisco path and rerates to a multiple of the S&P. And I think that we're still quite a ways from that. >> You you think it deserves a higher multiple. >> Yes. Because they have a recurring revenue business. Uh their dominance in a sector and >> based on a lot of assumptions, right? the the the recurring revenue >> uh it yes in some ways Scott because the future is still uncertain but actually we can say 5 years ago we were uncertain about the future of AI and they were they were dominant back then so to me they have a they're not getting rewarded for their ability to navigate this AI trade so successfully and really being central to that future and and then at some point they'll be traded like an N of one company and have a high multiple. I want to bring in another uh point too in these markets cuz I mentioned it off the opening read what's happening in cyber because we are watching software today that space comes off its best month since May its fifth best month ever. Fifth best month ever for software. What a difference a few months make. Well, some key earnings loom after the bill today including PaloAlto and Dell. Our Oliver Renick working up some options action for us in those names. He joins us now from the SIBO in Chicago with more. Hi there. Hey Scott, Dell earnings after the bell. Arguably the AI report of the week. The stock is up 240% this year and options are pricing a 10% swing for the stock, which may seem big until you remember the shares surged 30% and 20% after its last two reports. In both those cases, the options underestimated the move. And traders today might be taking notice with volume now on pace for three times the 30-day average. Worth noting it was actually below average this morning, but as the stock has pulled back, options traders are pouring in. The volume is split between puts and calls, but the premium is skewed towards calls and the most bought contract across 11,000 trades. Today is the 450 call expiring September 18th. That's a bet that Dell can hold at least an 8% rally over the next 3 weeks, Scott. >> All right. I like that look there. Oliver, thanks so much. That's Oliver running. Let's bring the the the panel back. What do you think about >> So, it looks like a Dell stock move. From what I saw, it looked like about 9% move, which was just uh roughly in line. Uh a lot of times in, you know, sometimes you guys can think you got some arbitrage there, right? You look at us like, oh, they're only implying a 9.6% move and you know, two times ago it moved 30% after earnings and another time 22%. So, sometimes people think, oh, there's some arbitrage. I just need to play calls. I need to play puts. Um and I'm gonna make a bunch of money, right? Because the implied move is only 9%. Right. Uh yeah, that doesn't usually work like that, you know, like like it's a total gamble, you know, no different than playing roulette. Like it's just a total gamble, man. You know, um in regards to that, like is a foolish game. Just trust me, there's no arbitrage there. Okay? Don't you even think there's arbitrage? You might say, "Well, I I made money doing that." No, no, trust me. No, there's no >> software trade right now. People tried to write it off. Seems like a little too early. >> That's right. I think people gave up on software thinking AI was going to eat software, but it's proving to be what we consider a downstream trade to AI. And I think that the good companies are going to have new durable business models built around AI centricity. >> Malcolm, you've got some exposure in this space obviously. Uh, and now what do you look forward with PaloAlto reporting tonight? >> Yeah, that's putting it lightly. I've got a ton of exposure here. I added considerably as the SAS apocalypse started to come upon us. Uh, and I'm glad to be vindicated in a lot of these names. Palo Alto specifically though, I'm surprised to see it trading negatively today and I'm curious if maybe the fact that it's up like 175% from its >> Yeah, I was about to say, come on, Malcolm. Look at this stock. I mean, geez, was that what 100 something here? And I mean, we're putting on a stock at 360 right now. Like, holy smokes, that's no dang jokers. Uh, okay. Let's go ahead and look at the public count here. Let's talk about what stocks I'm thinking about buying, selling, moves I'm thinking about making, all that good stuff. So, here it is. Have a look at it. What do you think? So, uh, public account, you know, here on Friday was like all-time highs. Great to see, obviously, right? So AMD is a big dog position that should get a lot bigger position um over this next 6 to 12 months. Should go on another beast run here. And like I said, in the next 12 months, you likely will see that stock move somewhere between $700 and $1,000 a share. So you can run the math on that. Yeah, the positions should be a lot bigger than $1.2 million here. Uh Meta Stock's a pretty significant position for me. Obviously much less significant than it used to be uh because I took some profits on that one last year. And then additionally, uh, obviously the stock's gone lower from its all-time highs it reached last year, which were in the 700s. So, take all those factors in, it's still a very important position for the portfolio, 12.6%. It's just less important, right? Amazon, I always want to keep Amazon around a 10% waiting in the portfolio. So, right now, it's a little under that. So, I wouldn't mind, you know, what will probably happen is AMD is going to go on an insane run. I'll probably cash some of my AMD shares and probably put some of that portion into Amazon. That's probably what you'll see me do. Cheesecake Factory. I have no intentions of selling that stock anytime soon. They got, you know, the next 10 years of growth ahead. So, I'm like, why would I want to? Um, you know, that's just so hard to come by, you know, so hard to come by those sorts of companies that you can see how they have a 10-year runway of growth with a Ford P under 20. Come on, man. You don't get many of those opportunities. CRM, Salesforce, that one remains a buy. It's not as good of a buy certainly as it was, you know, 3 to six months ago when it was like a steel deal, but it stock is still a buy. $277,000 position. Uh, no intentions to sell that one. Honest continues to run. Honest honestly, likely likely exits this year between $7 and $9 a share. Uh, right now it's still under $6 a share. So, I think there's significant upside between now and year end. The big call I made on honest since the beginning of the year was this stock was going to exit five plus for the year, right? But since the numbers have gotten so much better now, I'm thinking it's going to exit the year somewhere between seven and nine. And um it's crazy to think you could have bought Anna shares for, you know, a dollar or something this year. This year crazy. Celsius, that's one I want to continue to buy. I'm up, you know, $29,000 on in the public account, but I want to continue to add more Celsius shares. I don't mind raising my cost basis here. This 28 2634, I wouldn't mind raising it. American Express remains a buy. That's one's a great buy. I would love to build that into about a 5% waiting in the portfolio. Estee Lauder, say it louder for the people in back. That one remains a buy. Um probably just a hold for me in the public account right now because I got other stocks that have my attention like Medic Express, Celsius, those sorts of stocks. Um yeah. Then we have Palanteer. Um, I wouldn't call Palanteer a buy. It's just a stock that is stuck in my opinion between 125 and the 200ish range. And I think it remains there, right, for a while. So, as in several years, but we'll see. Um, if it goes to 400, 500, I love that. Like, you know, it's still a pretty big position for me, relatively speaking. You know, almost $175,000. So, hey, it goes to 300, you know, we're talking about, you know, a $300,000 position. So, I don't think it's gone there, but if it did, I'm gonna be happy. 400 thou $400. That's a $400,000 position, right? Elf on a Shelf remains a buy. Not as good of a buy as it was a few months ago when I was buying it. It was 49, but it's still a buy at 108. And um that one has significant upside ahead still over the next several years. Service Now, that one's still early in its move just like CRM is. So, long way to go there. Now, 50,000 on that one. Netflix is another stock I want to buy more shares of. I'm hoping Netflix stays lower. It's kind of been bouncing. I want it to be in a lower place rather than a higher place because I want to build the position a lot bigger. I would love Netflix to be a 5 to 7% waiting in the portfolio. Nike, uh, not really interested in buying too many Nike shares cuz I got Nike shares coming out my ears. Uh, now they just got to execute, put up numbers over the next couple years and that stock will be fine. It'll be a money maker, right? And it become a much bigger position in the portfolio. SoFi, I wouldn't mind making SoFi a little bigger position, but I feel comfortable with what I have there, right? Uh it's a little over 2% waiting. So yeah, RVLV Revolve up 42% on that one. Up 25,000. Revolve should probably be a little bit bigger of a position. Not a lot bigger. I'd probably like to get it somewhere around the SoFi range of like 2 2.1%. Great income statement, balance sheet management team there. Google McDougall. I wouldn't call it a buy anymore. I think it's either a hold or a sell. At some point in time, I should probably take the rest of my profits, but it's just like, do I really want to sell? Like, it's only $74,000. I kind of like holding Google. Gives me some comfort. And then, uh, Fubo Fubo stock's starting to come back to life. 11-11. That might be a sign I need to buy more shares. Yeah, Fubo. I mean, it's in the best financial position I've ever seen it in. And, uh, it's come a long way. So, I think uh Fubo looks good. All righty, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Oh, boy. We're getting close to only 7 hours left on that gold tier Labor Day sale. Make sure you guys get access to that. It's specifically a deal designed for folks that have under $50,000 portfolio. So, if you under 50K portfolio, make sure you get the deal before it runs out. And uh you'll learn a lot being part of that and get yourself up to a much higher level than where you're at today. Much love and have a great
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