The Stock Market is SLEEPING on Tesla Stock [Un-priced Catalyst]

I think Tesla is about to completely wreck Uber. I hate to say it, a lot of people are really bullish on Uber because the valuation is pretty low. I think the PEG ratio for Uber right now, we'll go look at our course member stock tab, but I want to say it's close to like a one peg, which is very low for the company. Uh, and and that is really the market pricing and some uncertainty for, you know, how is growth really going to play out at this business. That's another reason why, you know, like Broadcom trades for a one peg and Nvidia trades for a one peg because people are like, "Can this boom really keep going?" But I mean, if I had to pick between a 1.09 peg on Uber or a one on Nvidia or Broadcom, man, I'd go all in on Nvidia or Broadcom all day long before Uber. And I think that is because Tesla is, in my opinion, about to dominate Uber. And there's something that happened this year with Uber and Whimo that really makes me think Tesla is on to something. And no, it's not charging for robo taxi rides. It's making money from something else related to the cyber cab. So, you'll see in just a moment. We we'll go through this. Okay. So, look, Tesla's down like 19% year to date. It's been pretty volatile. And you know, I'm not here to say this thing's going to go straight up to the moon and, you know, it's not going to be resilient against uh if the AI bubble pops and we go into some deep dark recession, you're going to obviously have problems. But I think there's something that people aren't underwriting for Tesla that should be part of Tesla's valuation. And so that's what we're going to talk about here. In order to understand this component and sort of the change and how this goes back to what Tesla has already proven in the past, you have to kind of know my original thesis on robo taxi. My original thesis on robo taxi was actually, in my opinion, currently proven wrong. And so here's my original thesis on robo taxi. People will hail a cab on whatever app they are conditioned to use first. So they'll open up their phone. All right, I need a ride. Honey, we got to go. We're going out. You know, whatever. We are pulling up the Uber app. Boom. We're putting in that order for a car. Done. And I think that first or I thought that first draw app would always end up being the app that wins because you just use Uber 90 95% of the time and you only go to Lyft if like the prices seem ridiculous or the availability is too slow on the Uber. But otherwise, it's like Uber, Uber, Uber. Okay. I thought this would be the case with Robo Taxi as well. And so I thought it was pretty smart of Uber to say, you know, we're going to partner with other uh self-driving firms like Whimo or others. And so people can just experience whatever vehicle they want in Uber. You just pick, oh, I want an EV. I want the XL. I want the XXL. I I I don't even know what the difference between those two things is anymore. But anyway, you know, I thought this would be true of robo taxis that you would just sort of like have your MLS for real estate, except it's actually the MLS for cars, the different sort of menu of options. That's the app you go to. And so Uber gets their margin. They've got the systems and infrastructure in place to handle it, and they've got the distribution. So that was my thought. Not only do they have distribution, but they also have this sort of first mover advantage. The problem with it all of this is what happened between Whimo and Uber this year. So, Whimo told Uber, "We're done. Our contract, three-year contract in Phoenix is over." And they just made that announcement in uh I think it was June 29th of 2026. Quiet killing. A lot of people didn't even pay attention to that. I talked about it then, but I'm talking about it even more clearly now after the Cyber Cap event because it's worth bringing up again. But it's not just Phoenix. Uber's also getting ready to give the middle finger to Dallas and Austin or sorry, Whimo, if I didn't say that right, Whimo is getting ready to give the middle finger to Uber in Dallas and Austin and they'll be out of their contract there by January of 2028. And in new areas that they're rolling out, it seems to all just be direct Whimo, which is how it is in, let's say, San Francisco or some of the other parts of the country they're in. And initially, I thought, I don't know, man. Like, it makes more sense. Whimo is just going to be in the Uber app and then you just click I want the Whimo. I want self-driving and then a Whimo shows up or a Tesla robo taxi shows up. And so when I first heard about the partnership, I'm like that's exactly what I thought would happen. Ah, confirmation bias never felt so good. And then turns out I was wrong. See, uh, what's actually happening is people are more and more realizing that when you use the Uber app, you're like 95 probably 99% of the time getting a human-driven car. And people are freaking tired of it. And so when people want a robo taxi, they're not going to Uber to get their robo taxi. They are going direct to the five-star app that they can get their hands on. And so when people want a robo taxi, they just open up the Whimo app and look at that freaking app. Number five in travel, five-star review on 245,000 ratings. Holy smokes. Why would you bother using Uber when you could just use this? This has a perfect reputation. It's got a great app. Whimo has proven my thesis wrong. And that actually matters when it comes to Tesla because it means the Tesla robo taxi app can also function to this style uh or this competitiveness which is actually really bullish in my opinion for Tesla. Now, I want you to see a particular chart, and we're going to talk more about Tesla in just a moment, but I want you to see this chart. And just ignore the dates for a moment, but what you could see here is this green section, which is Whimo. And the percentages don't matter because Whimo is coming off of a smaller, you know, scope. But what you could see is Lyft and Uber are seeing a decline in estimated downloads. That may be because you've kind of already hit like saturation. You know, it's like, how many times do I have to download the Uber app? You know, I already got it. uh but uh but you're seeing Whimo come in and start eating some of this for Lift and Uber. Now, the reason I said ignore the date for a moment is because you might think that this chart is to date, but the most recent chart I could get in this or from this was actually uh with data going through February of 2025. So, it's old. But my thesis is that this this trend has likely continued and accelerated, especially with I mean, when we look at this 245,000 fivestar reviews, man, that's that feels like it's 100,000 more reviews than where it was the last time I looked, and it still has a fivestar review. Holy smokes. Can we get a fivestar review on the Meet Kevin app, please? I I mean, we used to be five star for a long time. We've come out with so many new features for it. Uh we are we're at 4.9. Come on. We're going to fix that. We're going to make it better. Uh but anyway, so what's really interesting about this is this trend proves to me that my initial opinion was wrong. That when people find a better product or service, they are going to dump Uber like the hot potato brick it deserves deserves to be dumped as. And I'm not saying that I have anything wrong or to say about Uber the company. It has to do with the drivers, the subcontractors. So, I'm not here trying to bag on Uber stock. If you own Uber stock, it's not the purpose of this video. It's the fact of the matter is that Whimo knows what people want. They want consistent cleanliness. They don't want a driver where they have to listen to them saying their phone calls. They want to have their own phone calls. They want their own climate control, their own music. They don't want to listen to, you know, whatever the heck it is you listen to. And I have had to listen to some crazy songs in Ubers or even a driver singing or they drive like maniacs or they drive really slow or they're just really old and it takes them like a 7second latency to realize the light is green there. There's a lot and maybe that's not related to age. Maybe that person just shouldn't have been driving anymore, right? Or or the worst one of course is when they just have the windows down because they want to save on gas for not running their air conditioning. Yet the drag they are probably creating that aerodynamic inefficiency they are creating is probably slowing their car down more than if they just ran the air conditioning. But honestly that's for the engineers to debate. That's not for me to debate. My point is all of this points back to Tesla. Tesla can get all of these benefits plus one thing fleet operations. See, the hardest part in my opinion of these uh robo taxi operations is and the literally the hardest part is having the cleaning and charging infrastructure. You literally need commercial space. You need commercial charging equipment, likely DC charging equipment, direct voltage. Uh you need some form of cleaning infrastructure where these things can get cleaned up when there's a problem. And ultimately, that is a lot. Now, Tesla could scale it, but why? That's going to be the lowest margin portion of this business. Why do you want that when you could literally just sell the vehicle to fleet operators and make them agree to a contract? If your star rating falls below a 4.7, you're done. We'll buy the cars back from you at a, you know, 75% discount or some depreciated value, but you're done. You're out of fleet. and somebody else is going in. That incentivizes the contractors to actually keep the products clean. It also gives the contractors the benefit of being able to launch a business, especially if they have the land to launch this business and the infrastructure to launch it. It's another potential source of revenue. Obviously, they have to work for it. It's not free money, but then they also get to buy equipment that they're going to be able to write off 100% because of Donald Trump's tax benefits. So now you actually have a buyer who is buying an electric vehicle not for your $7,500 EV credit, but for literally a 100% tax write off on a depreciable asset thanks to Donald Trump's policies. This as a business has actually become a potentially massive margin product for Tesla. And Tesla's proven in the past that we can get with tax benefits to a 30% margin on these vehicles, gross margin, I think, with the fact that people can upfront depreciate the crap out of these. In other words, let me give you an example, okay? Let's say you're a dentist and you've got, I don't know, a really big commercial facility for you own the whole freaking strip mall, okay? Uh and and you're your own anchor tenant. Dentist isn't an anchor tenant, but you know what I mean. And uh whatever, okay? You've invested well, you've done well, and you got a big year coming up. you're going to have a million bucks of income because, you know, you do great with your dentist practice. Fantastic. Okay, we want to write some of this off. Well, why don't we just go buy a crapload of equipment as part of our business? And, you know, I'm not a tax guy, okay? But let's just say I now go I've got, you know, operating income of a million bucks in my dental business. and this other portion of my business is now going to be renting out Teslas and I'm going to buy a million dollars worth of cyber cabs at I'm going to guess and there's going to be an FSD subscription as part of this. So, this will be without full self-driving. You got to add inflation to the $25,000 car. Okay, everybody wants the $25,000 car, but let's be real. We need to add like 30% inflation to this. And honestly, that's still in fairness the $25,000 car that Elon promised. Um, I know I don't want that to sound like cope. I just think that's reasonable. So that's $32,500 divided by 32500. I go in buy 30 robo taxes. Boom. I just instantly rode off what I would have otherwise had to pay 500 grand in taxes on. I just paid zero in taxes. And then you finance these Teslas as well. And then you're carrying over even more tax benefits if you want. Or just put half down, you know, whatever you want. Tesla gets the benefit of financing upside. Tesla gets the benefit of pricing power because you're giving people a massive tax write off. Tesla gets the benefit of not having to deal with the cleaning and charging. Tesla gets the benefit of selling the damn car upfront and collecting the fat margin upfront, which holy smokes, what is Tesla good at? Mass manufacturing in a creative way to bring costs down. That's what the cyber cap is. This is not stop valuing this company on how much money they could make running and operating this low margin mileage business that's going to commoditize. Oh, if if they can make a dollar a mile, they're not going to make a dollar a mile. They're going to print money taking advantage of the tax benefits that allow them to have pricing power on the vehicles which actually allow them to sell the cars maybe for even more. Maybe they sell them for 40 and they take 30, 40, 35% gross profits. Who cares? Plus the 99% margin on the robo taxi FSD full self-driving subscription. That is where the money is. They're the only ones still yet who have this. We think, "Oh, Nvidia's got THE THOR PLATFORM. THEY'RE COMING." DUDE, THAT'S BEEN SAID now for like I don't know how long. At least four years. I I still only see brand new rental cars with adaptive cruise control. Like, that's the most I seem to be getting in Europe or America is adaptive cruise control. And and maybe I'm missing something, but Tesla's just so far ahead. It's insane. And that's why they're aiming at fleet. That's why they've got a fleet sign up. That's why the plug is a DC plug. And then Tesla can take those profits and reinvest them into Optimus robots. I think that is a real thesis for this company. Now, the company is based on current estimates. On the pricey side, if we look at the PEG ratio for Tesla right now, it is unfortunately high. And I am not here to tell you it is down at the dumps and dirt cheap right now. Right now, based on its earnings expected, it's trading for about a 5 peg. Okay? I could buy AI cyber security stocks for a five peg right now. uh and and you know maybe that has already played out but the point is there's a lot of optimism around Tesla in charging per mile and Optimus or whatever. I don't know when my thesis is going to play out how quickly they can get to manufacturing. Right now we've got about 125,000 vehicles that we could produce cyberc cab wise with the unbox strategy. We don't know what the margins are going to be yet for this, but I wouldn't be surprised that if in five that you know by the end of the decade maybe, okay, maybe by the end of the decade, they're booming on robo taxi sales. And now what you're really doing is instead of worrying about revenue per mile on robo taxi, you're actually coming to my number and you're saying, Kevin, it is back to vehicle manufacturing number of vehicles we can sell. Except rather than running it at an 18% margin, we're going to jack up the whole fleet to a 30% margin because we're going to assume we could sell these cyber caps to businesses who could write it off at a 35% margin. Average it with the rest of the business. That's, you know, 18% business now, uh, 18% now. Maybe it goes up to 22 or whatever. Uh and so now what we can do is we can actually jerk around these uh price targets. So right now we have this 2030 end of 2030. So fouryear price target. It's honestly it's like three and a half now. Three and a half year price target of 605 that does include uh we've got revenue from the Tesla bot. This could be aggressive. You know, let me just remove the Tesla bot here. Okay. Because I'm just going to be conservative. We'll add it back in in a moment. We're going to add the put the Tesla bot at zero. Uh and semi-truck operating income 3.5. You know what? Let's just be mean. Let's just set that to zero, too. Okay, we'll come back. We'll add those back in. So, if I set those to zero, I'm still at 542 bucks at 4 million cars. Okay, that still is twice as many vehicles as we're selling right now. But now what we're going to do is we're going to take that uh FSD revenue. Where do we got it? sales, leases, services, energy, operating income from FSD subscriptions. We're going to add another billion bucks to FSD subscriptions right here because you're going to charge more to those fleet operators because they can write it off. Remember, businesses charge businesses more. Okay, it's that simple. Operating income, I'm now going to change this on sales to 30% blended. And I just want you to see how this changes. Okay, just adding a build to FSD at high high margin to boosting the biggest line at the top to 30%. Mind you, I literally set Optimus and Semi-Truck to zero on purpose. And I haven't even pre-calculated this. I just have a feeling it's going to be big because this top line drives this business. Oh 775. Holy moly. See that kind of rate of return? I like. Now, what does that take? That takes $1148 of EPS. That's 10x where we are now. Obviously, markets do not expect, analysts do not expect Tesla to 10x earnings per share right now. I will tell you what markets anticipate and it ain't 10x. Uh, and so, who knows? You know, maybe maybe I'm, you know, barking up the wrong tree here and I don't think this catalyst needs to be soon. There can be plenty of other poopy dupy catalysts. You know, people could get nervous before or after midterms or, you know, maybe the Fed makes a mistake and starts rapidly hiking. I don't know. Stupid things can happen. Tesla is interest rate sensitive. So, if they hike rates, you know, it's going to suck. Uh, $166 is the current Wall Street estimate. We're at 34.7 34.7 plus 40.7 + 63.4 + 47.6 six 186% growth. That's like a almost a 3x. Okay. So, average growth rate about 46%. Actually, by the end of 2030 gets to about Oh, that's what I did. It is actually it's closer to four and a half years because it's the end of 2030 is how I run this. Um, so it's actually more like 4.25. There we go. So, they have EPS at $7.58. I'm at 11.48. So, you know, I'm still a bit above 1148 divided by uh what is this? 7.58. That's 50% away. I might only be a year and a half ahead. My schedule might actually only be a year and a half ahead. So, even if I'm a year and a half early, who cares? If I have to set this to 5.75, it's still a good return on my investment, 14.8%, right? And you all know I'm a big fan of reinvesting profits from one part of a business to another business. Uh but that would be the end of I mean that's after all what we named our company after reinvest, right? People always like what what are you reinvesting? What's reinvest? It's house hack. We just renamed it reinvest because we opened a software division and we've got you know a team of like I don't know 10 or 12 developers now or whatever and we are just cranking on real estate AI and changing real estate AI where nobody has done it before. I'm not trying to pitch you on. just trying to say the point is revenues we make from software memberships to that AI or whatever that's just going to go get reinvested into real estate, you know, our sort of core business. And so I think what they'll actually do with robo taxis is the money they make selling those vehicles, those cyber caps, they turn around and dump that into the optimist program. 18% move to 30. Now the Optimus program I think is like a 2035 to 2040 play. Okay. If cyber cabs are scaling to 2 million units or whatever by 2030 now you've got capital and cash flow maybe to reinvest in Optimus and then you know getting the little arm uh and the servos for the arms worked out. You know we'll have figured it out by then. Anyway, that's my take that honestly like, you know, between you and me, maybe it'd be a good thing if Tesla goes down just a little bit more and we get a little bit more of an attractive entry here. But, uh, even where it sits now at 350 bucks, you know, if if we're right about the strategy with the cyber cab, there's something to this. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.