Bitcoin: The Macro Confirmation (explained)

All right, guys. Welcome back to the channel. It's Jason Pazino with tiainvestor.com. Bitcoin and the macro change in trend signals we are following. Make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to the channel so that you stay up to date with these signals and of course metals, stock markets, and the real estate cycle. All right, we've seen a weekly close for Bitcoin. It has come at the 50we moving average, the yellow line here. Now, there's been several major indicators that we're watching to see whether the market responds to them in a favorable way or unfavorable way. If it's favorable for the bulls in this case, well, that's going to be good news for the bulls. Favorable for the bears would be a rejection. So, firstly, to establish what I'm discussing here. When when I'm talking favorable, I'm talking to the upside and that is favorable for the bulls. If you're on the bear camp, well then you want to hear it in the reverse. Basically the opposites. But for the sake of the video, I'm going to look at this from an upside point of view. Establishing a low, confirming a low, and writing the trend until the end, as they say. So change in trend. The 20day moving average is something that we've covered for quite some time. That's the blue line here. And that was a pretty key point where things started to turn around more so in favor of the bulls. There were two earlier signals, but they're on a shorter term basis. So when you're on a shortterm basis, you can only expect shortterm changes in trend. However, being that they were strong signals, I gave them more probability that the trend to the upside from the low on the 1 of July was going to withstand something equal to or longer than the other rallies that we have recently seen. And you might be familiar with those. They are the three bar signal and an overbalance in time and price. When you begin to see an overbalance, it's basically the buyers overbalancing the the sellers or vice versa depending on the direction of the trend. If you're watching for any signs that the trend is changing from a downtrend to an uptrend, we're talking on a long-term basis here, not the short-term stuff that a lot of people get confused with. But the long term, then you want to [clears throat] see the overbalance happen on a longerterm basis as the name suggests. And we got the first one through this phase. Right? That was from the February low to the May top. And what that was saying is that there are more buyers now stepping in than there are sellers. Doesn't mean that the low is 100% safe, but what it does mean is that it's more likely that we're beginning to see that process of the low form. And uh you you can check back through those videos. We saw this overbalance here because basically the market ran up more than it did in that prior move higher. So basically all of the folks who were shouting buy this dip at 80,000, buy the dip at 85, buy the dip at 90, that was not the right time because there were just no signs that the trend was changing from a bare market to a bull market. We got one of those first signs through here and you can look at it through uh the lens of capitulation and things like that too where you had these big bars down. Now the price did end up going lower. it made it into the the range of 43,000 to 57,000 that I'd covered many many times. And from that point, from this low point, then we began to see a change in sentiment. Lots of fearful news coming out in June about Micro Strategy and Treasury companies and their other company Stretch and all this sort of stuff. Lots of bad news. That was a time when those companies were hitting their lows. However, Bitcoin wasn't pushing too much further down. So, basically, it lowered the selling pressure, but the buying pressure was coming through to almost equal it. And I say almost because the price did go lower. We had a new low. And uh that that happened in June again, late June. And then finally, so far we've had the low on the 1st of July. Yeah, there it is. And so we began to see more of that overbalance in buyers to sellers, overbalance in time and price. Time just means there is going to be more time to the upside and price means there's going to be a larger range to the upside. Essentially, we're just measuring each of the axes. You've got um the time at the bottom and then the price on the side here. And a lot of people only look at price. They don't measure time. Time is an important one because that is going to tell us how long people are willing to stick it out in that trend and basically knock the wall down from the macro bear to the bull or vice versa from the um from the upside to the downside, you know, the the bull market to the bare market. Basically, the bears, the sellers stepping in here and really starting to push things over the edge. Okay, so we've had the overbalance, we had some capitulations, and then we got to the low here at the uh the 1st of July. Then we began to see the short-term, as I said earlier, the shorterterm signals, three bars up from the low. Remember, we've used that same signal across all of the all-time highs. It doesn't have to show up at the all-time high, but for the sake of Bitcoin, it continues or it continued to show up at highs where you just had a lower high, lower high, lower high, lower low, lower low, lower low. So basically three in a row from a significant turning point, which tells you overbalance is coming. The buyers are not as strong as the media or the sounds and the noise that we're hearing out there are um are saying they are. And that strangely enough, call it a coincidence, but it's a fantastic signal to have in your toolkit for your trading. It showed up from this this uh this low point. Basically, we don't know, you know, that's all the data you get on the 1 of July. It's the lowest price. It is um yeah, essentially the lowest price of the entire decline o over what was it? Seven or eight months at the time. And then we had a day up with a higher high, higher low. Another day up, higher high, higher low. Another day, higher high, higher low. So, we're beginning to add more and more of the the signals that the trend wants to change. It doesn't mean it's that's it. It doesn't mean that it's all of a sudden going to take off. Remember, there was still two more months until things uh contracted so much that then led to a breakout. But, we got that signal there. So, what I'm what I'm explaining here is that we're basically layering these signals on top of each other to paint the picture or at least to keep as our trading plan so that you've got something tangible to use as opposed to just jumping from chart to chart and, you know, headline to headline and what this person said and that person said because that stuff never lasts. It's absolute garbage. What I've noticed over the last 20 years of trading the markets, investing in real estate, people just make up a whole lot of stuff and they they get you to look at all different things, but we keep things consistent and work over specific signals that continue to show up in whether it's Bitcoin, the stock markets, the signals work across broad markets because humans all trade these markets and we're basically charting human behavior. Now, I talk more about this with TIA Pro members. There's a link to that in the video description. There's a lifetime discount on that now and I go through my portfolio where I show what I'm trading and investing in. So if you're interested in that, want to, you know, increase your level of competence, check that out. There's a link in the video description. Okay. So we saw that on the 3-day 3-day bars up from the low or candles if you choose to use the candle chart. Then we also saw it on the weekly chart. So here is that weak the low higher high higher low and so on right. So if we turn over to a bar you can easily see that as well higher highs and higher lows. So [clears throat] from the daily we got it to the weekly and of course it takes time. Double top came in minor rejection contraction then the breakout. Now I don't know the day that the breakout's going to happen. I'm just following the signals as they play out and watching what buyers and sellers are doing so that I can hopefully get get on the right side of the market. You know, there's there's no crystal ball. It's just a matter of weighing up the probabilities. Which way is this market going? And sometimes it goes nowhere like it did from June until mid August. And then from mid August, we got the break. So the market started to wind up and then we got the break. So that led us to our next signal. Uh, and that was the 200 day moving average. And on the daily chart, it closed above the 200 day. So, it met came up to the 200 day. It hit it with force. Force is the volume. So, you want to see a lot of that coming through, you know, like breaking down a massive concrete brick wall or whatever. You don't want just want to tap it with a hammer. You need a massive sledgehammer to break it down so that you're getting this huge shift in momentum. Volume came in, great. Close above, another good sign. closes below mean you're getting sellers coming in but this closed above it and so the buyers were taking control two more days followed through nice big volume and um you know basically price has rested here since the 21st of August so about two two and a half weeks okay why is that important well previous bull markets we've seen the same sort of thing breakout happened in January 2023 that was uh coming up to the 200 day met with force broke through it closed above it And you know, the rest is history from there. But we're just looking for those signals. Does it happen time and time again? 2019 came up to the 200 day, met it with force, broke above it. It didn't just come up, touch it, and fall back. It came through on volume and then held above it as well. In 201 14, you can see that it came up and tested it and closed back underneath. Tried again, but the volume was just not there compared to the selling volume. So really important difference between the two types of signals there. And then it failed. Tried again, volume came back, but it was really not the same sort of volume like you saw around the first test. And it was a lower high. So ultimately it failed. Then you had another test, minor one here. You could argue it's not really a test, but it was pretty damn close. That also failed because it just wasn't there. And then finally there is a breakthrough increasing volume. That's some of the highest buying volume throughout that whole accumulation period. Break out, tried to hold, couple of days underneath and then it broke out again. Then some more volume started to come through. Now that one also occurred. So we've seen the 200 day break, the 50WE, similar sort of thing here. So I won't spend as much time, but you can just see the layers of um confirmation continuing to build up because at that time you don't know if this is going to be the end of the bare market. and uh yeah, it's just going to take off to the new all-time high. You just don't know. All you're doing is just layering on the reasons why it could be a change, a macro change in trend from a bear bear to a bull or you're trying to uh argue with, you know, with yourself watching your own plans, is this just a fake out? And so the more you see it, the more you're able to uh add these rules into your plan, then you can be a little more confident that it's going to be a longerterm break than a than a short-term break. Doesn't mean it's it's a 100% guarantee. But yeah, you you hopefully get the idea that it's just about probabilities. So probabilities are you get to this 50 week and it failed. So had it had to come back, retest the 200. [snorts] Uh that's 2015. Finally, it held, broke higher, and then basically the rest is history. So, you're above that. We come over to 2019 after the the 200 day break, test of the 50 pullback, and then finally a break, bit of volume here, and then things took off to that final top. Market um held out. We can come back to this in future videos, but we're focused on the the lower part at this point. And then in 2022, same thing. broke breaking the 200 day, ran up, tested the 50-W week, and then crashed to test the 200 day. Now, this one's interesting to note because that crash came with the uh Silicon Valley bank collapse. If you recall, the regional banking system was expected to collapse and collapse the entire US system because it's all interconnected and all this stuff that they told us in the media. Meanwhile, what we were saying at that time is that it's not ready yet. The cycle is not over. A banking collapse uh from regional banks is not enough to crash the entire system. Our theory is the 18-ear cycle which is playing out time and time again and it wasn't time then which led us to have more confidence in this next bull market and load up at these lows. That was back then. Times are different in the cycle now. So, that's something definitely to pay attention to. back to the 50WE and what I wanted to mention here is you've got a test here at the 50WE and look at that time frame from the test to the low about 22 days call it 3 weeks somewhere 2 to 3 weeks should this happen again so this is basically where we're at now blue yellows do we get a breakout we don't no one knows but we can we can measure a day here uh from the first test of the 50WE've tested it again so far we haven't got a breakout let's see what happens over the next 24 hours. You just don't know with Bitcoin. But the probabilities if we get this pullback around 3 weeks, it's going to take us to about midseptember, which is probably not a bad place to find uh well for the bulls, ideally a higher low. And that would be some pretty strong signs if it were a higher low sometime in September, maybe early October. We're getting to that end of the bare market cycle time frame. you know, the old 12 month thing. And should this break the 50WE, I would almost say that um it's almost a guarantee almost a guarantee that any pullback will be a higher low for this particular run, right? So, what would that look like? I mean, look, if it breaks 50 week, comes up, starts to pull back, maybe it even just pulls back quickly into October, I'd say that's going to be a high low. High low just means it's going to be above this range. If it falls below below this range now, and that range is between 67 and 57, that would be a weak signal. So, anything back under 67, this would have been a massive, massive fake out, right? We're not there yet. So, just keep that in mind. Below 67, things are going to look not great, but we're not there. Okay, so 50we what we're watching next are breakouts of the 50we pullbacks. I think are going to be relatively safe and they could be safe re-entry opportunities. So if you're in that old dollar cost averaging phase, that could be a a nice safer entry opportunity. It's not um you know, again have to be so repetitive, but it's there's no guarantees in the market. It's just looking at how things have played out because humans typically do the same thing over and over again. If you just look at history, you know, why we keep going through the same cycles of war and rebuilding after wars and the good times and then the bad times come around again. It's just human nature. I don't know if we ever want to learn. So, enough of that rant. We've done the 200 day, we've done the 50WE, we've talked about the overbalance on a short term. We've talked about the three bar signals, changes in macro trends, the the longerterm overbalance. Now, we're watching for a run of a price uh above about 83 at this point. And I say at this point because there's a few nuances to the rule. If you don't understand how to use the rule, it could be a little bit um uh tricky to understand. Nonetheless, as it stands, we're looking for a higher price than 83,000 by early October, 1, 2nd of October. Okay, that would then overbalance this and of course this one here. So, we're really just watching this uh this particular run. And we're almost almost there. We have it in um in price. So, you watch from this low to the high. Copy and paste that. And then you drop it to the low here. Um in price, we redid it. We overbalanced in price, but the bulls haven't held this game up for long enough yet. And it they have to beat this one. They have to beat this rally that lasted about um 3 months or so. All right, and we're nearly there. Once we get to the early part of October and the price is higher than the current high, you'll be there. So, we can add in overbalance in time and price. Why is that important? Because that is a signal of the market changing in trend, the macro change in trend, and it happens every single cycle. If you know how to measure it, if you know how to what you're looking for, then it is another super important tool for you that helps at those lows and gets you back on the trend. Okay, we saw it last time. This was um a period of the market that we're watching. Low. Let's have a go. Low to the high. You have to know which one to measure because that's the that's basically the important part. If you get that wrong, then you're not going to get the right overbalance in time and price. And then you have to measure it from the right low. So that occurred in April. Overbalance in time and price. Time easily. You can see that it's longer in time. Finally met the the rally in price at 31,000 bucks. Beautiful. And it happened again and again and again each of the prior lows. Okay, we're nearly there. In another four three to four weeks, we'll we should have an answer on that. and the 50% level then then those next confirmations they come a little bit later in the stage so you can get on board earlier on. There's higher chance of being wrong because that's what happens at lows and at highs over and over again. There is no crystal ball that tells you at $57,700 that that was going to be the low, but you start to get more and more signs. And it just depends on you and how confident or how uh risk adverse you are to the markets. How much extra confirmation do you want in the market to give you that sign that things are are looking like they want to head higher? All the while, there is no 100% guarantee. So, it's just a matter of how much premium do you want to pay for the confirmation. Um, so yeah, that takes us to the 50%. And the 50% on this decline thus far sits at $92,000. You can see here on the right hand side, which would be a break of the downtrend 50 and that would then take you very close to the um the next lower swing high at about 98,000. Then you start to get into that phase of the previous all-time high. Remember 98 was a double bottom which failed. 98 came up and tested as the macro lower high and failed. So really important resistance for the market to get through if this can continue through you know 2027 2028. So we got all the numbers there. We've got lots of things we're watching. Several of these have now changed hands. That's a good thing to note. And then the final there is that even with all of this, none of it confirms that you're going to see a new alltime high. All it confirms is that you've got a macro change in trend. It's not what everyone wants to hear. But that's how the markets work. Remember when this happened at the lows and you had the breakout, there was no guarantee that you were going to see the same returns like last cycle, but everyone expected the same returns as last cycle. And look what it did. It basically stalled at around 108. Sure, we got to 126, but that was shortlived and then crashed back underneath. And so, it wasn't even a doubling of the prior high. And everyone had gotten used to it from the the prior cycles. You know, I got in in early 2017, and all of the talk was that you're going to see a similar type of top to 2013, but that was huge numbers, massive numbers for that entire cycle, going from a few bucks to over $1,000. And it didn't happen. Everyone was talking 50 grand, 100 grand for Bitcoin at that time. But you had to wait several more years until you got to the 50 grand. And then in 2021, some of you may recall, everyone was talking $100,000, $200,000. The same names were talking about that. It didn't happen. And then this price cycle, people started talking $250, $500,000. It was a given $750,000. It it it's just part of the the game. everyone tries to talk it up for the for the good times and then when it doesn't happen they sort of disappear. So I think it's better to be uh you know conservative, have a plan and make sure you're there for the next phase of any particular cycle because the worst thing is and those guys probably aren't watching now is you know trading it through that cycle and then not taking any profits and potentially even losing more than you started with. Anyway, they're the major things here for Bitcoin. Um, the other pieces of the pie would be the money coming back into the space. And so far, the exchange volume has had a higher high than the previous top in June, which is a good, very, very good start. We've obviously had a big pullback. That would be natural. And it is very similar to the prior move. Look at that. This time we got a slight break of the high. I'm going to move this cursor so you don't have to see that stupid table that shows up. But that's the current high. It went just slightly higher than that one last cycle. It didn't go higher and it went lower, but it was slowing down. So, the money that was in the system through the exchanges was holding in there and that's what you want to see. Got the breakout and it happened. So right now we have to wait and see whether this um this next move for the exchange volume is able to hold up at the similar lows to what we've seen over the last couple of months. So this currently is around 14 15 billion slightly lower that would be normal like we saw in each of the price cycles but ideally not that much lower than the current lows because if that's the case well then you're basically losing a whole lot of money out of the system. Yes, the ETF volume is there. Yes, the futures volume is there. You want to see that also hold up as well. And so far, they're all tracking relatively similarly. Now, crypto and Bitcoin on the search volume, this goes for Google, Google AI, all your AIS, it's pretty dead. The search volume still really isn't there. It's not the most concerning thing because we did see a little spike in it. So, there is still people interested when the Bitcoin price moves, but ideally, we just see it base around like it does in the prior cycles. And we're right around similar low points now. Bitcoin's trading at uh 27 on the search volume and in the price cycles, you know, found bottoms at around 23 multiple times before it picked up and this time it found lows around 25 26 and then it picked up again. So ideally it stays around this low to mid 20s and from that point you'd see expect to see a pickup. Now, the um ex uh fear and greed index is also a fantastic one here. Something that we've been able to use to our advantage to identify the change in trend at the highs and for these lows. And remember, we're watching for higher lows on the sentiment that has occurred. Look at that. Higher lows across the board. And then we got the breakout. The breakout came through into greed just like it did in the prior cycles. You got greed. You also have times where it just has these little spikes just before another correction and um you know same thing happened back here in late early 2020 early late 2019 early 2020 and then the co pandemic dropped you back to extreme fear. Now the interesting part here is that if we get these pullbacks on the sentiment and say price also pulls back which would be normal but it holds above the previous resistance levels so somewhere above 67 to 71,000 and you get these pullbacks into fear as I said earlier in the video there can be really good opportunities for that DCA. I think you still need to be very aware of what's happening in the cycle. Don't be complacent. whatsoever. I um you know, even if this thing shoots up to 150,000 bucks, the riskreward is not amazing. From 80 grand, maybe it pulls back to 70, you know, 70 to 80K, you go up to 150, it's a doubling. Great, amazing 100% from that point. But are you going to catch the exact top and the exact bottom for that 100%. Or you going to take a chunk out of the middle, which is still fantastic. Profits are are profits. And so when I talk about this next phase, this change in trend from a bare market to a bull market, the the difficulty lies, I think, with all of the other metrics coming through, more money coming back into cryptos. Amazing. We could get an even higher price, more um uh risk appetite across the board. That would be ideal to push these numbers much higher. as it stands. Let's see if Bitcoin can do the old all-time high anywhere between 120 and 150. And I think if I had an the old um ray, my my line here, we still have the resistance level from 2017 to 2021 to overcome as well. I'm going have to draw it back on this chart. Yeah. So, that's the 2017 all-time high. 2021 all-time high. And this cycle rejected multiple times. 2024, 2025, late 2025. It tried to hold, which was beginning to look okay. And then, of course, it failed. Tried again, and then a massive failure. So, that line has held us for 9 years or so. And what happens if we get up to that line again in 2027? Where would that sit us? Somewhere in the mid130s. So, probably, you know, it's still a new all-time high, but is it the the type of profits that you came to cryptocurrency for? We're just going to keep watching it, see how it responds to the resistance level again. If that overcomes it, I'll I'll be the first to say, man, boy, was I wrong. And um my thoughts on a uh you know, like a a new cycle heading higher. uh basically like a you know nothing exciting let's say from 60k to 150k I don't think that's very exciting for bitcoin I'm used to 20k to 120k or 3k to 70k those are the sort of the returns that you look for when you take the risk of betting on something that is like bitcoin or cryptocurrencies you need to see major returns because the downside is quite substantial Okay, so the the point I'm making here is we're just watching for this next move. The change in trend, we've got many of those signals come through. We're waiting on the overbalance in time and price, the 50% break. Um swing top break is nearly there. That's around 82K. So that one there, I would say, is almost um done. That was on the monthly swing chart. So a really important one as well. When that breaks, you usually see the bull market uh as another major confirmation. That's this yellow line here. Let's get rid of these. You can see with those yellow lines, the swing tops of the monthly swing breaking through gives you a really strong confirmation that the bull market is back on and then it gives you some more buying opportunities along the way. So, I'll cover my thoughts on this next move up uh you know in future months. But for now, change in macro trend. Lots of good confirming signals here. We're we're nearly on board with the the final of them. Make sure you've liked and subscribed to the channel. Don't forget TIA Pro lifetime discount is on that now if you want to see how we're managing our portfolios through metals, Bitcoin, cryptos, the stock markets, and of course the real estate cycle. Something I'm very much interested here in Australia as well with my portfolio. All right guys, see you at the next one. Take care and peace