AI Investors, No One Realizes How Important This Week Will Be

Well, stock investors, we are in for an impactful week ahead as there are multiple consequential events happening essentially every single day over the next five trading days that I believe are going to create some real volatility and opportunity here in the market as Wall Street attempts to digest and price them in. And so, because this is going to be a pretty important week for the market, especially for, you know, like the forwardlooking sentiment of investors in the market, what I wanted to do for you all today is just break down everything. We're going to talk about what's going on this week, why it matters for stocks and ultimately stock investors, and exactly what I'm doing in my own public portfolio this week as a result of everything that's approaching. And my goal, of course, is that we leave today's video feeling prepared, feeling ready to tackle a week that I do believe is going to be a bit more impactful than people realize. You know, I think a lot of people are looking at last week. We had the FOMC meeting. We had the Bank of Japan interest rate hike, and they think that now this week things are going to settle down a bit, but I I don't particularly agree. I think we're going to see that volatility really carry over this week. And I'll explain why. And again, hopefully the goal is that you leave today's video prepared for that volatility. So, we have a good bit to get into. But before we do, I will remind you all that if you have not had the opportunity to check it out yet, there is a link down below in the description to THW Weekly. This is a free newsletter that me and my team write every single Sunday in which we do exactly what I'm doing in this video. We get you prepared for the week. We talk about what important days there are over the week, what important events there are over the week. We look at the charts really quickly. I even break down some of the potential buys and sells that I'm looking at for the week so that you have essentially a game plan going into the next week that you can refer to every day as different events are happening and if you're trying to figure out why they're important. Okay. So, if this is interesting to you, if you're into stocks, if you're into crypto, definitely make sure to head to the link down below and feel free to check it out and get your game plan later today when we send out the next edition. Okay? So, go ahead, check that out. Let me know what you think. And let's begin, folks. So, first and foremost, let's kind of just recap what happened last week a bit, okay? Because we had some very important things happen last week that are setting the stage for this week. Essentially, the reason why this week is so important is because of what happened last week. So last week we saw two important things. First, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023 over 3 years, taking the um federal funds target range up by 25 basis points. Now when the Fed initially did this, honestly, the market didn't respond all that negatively, right? Matter of fact, if we go back to the day in which they did it, which would have been on Wednesday, we did get a bit of a pullback. you know, whenever the market closed, we got a bit of a pullback, but by the next day, by Thursday, the S&P 500 had essentially fully recovered that and actually gained a little bit more before ultimately slowing down on Friday. So, it definitely was something that the market was maybe a bit concerned about, but not particularly shocked about. I mean, going into this FOMC meeting, there was like a what was it 92% chance that the Fed hiked rates. We kind of knew it was coming, but they did it. For the first time in 3 years, we have now entered into an interest rate hike cycle. Now, to move forward from that, not only did we see the Federal Reserve here in the United States hike rates, we also saw the Bank of Japan at the end of last week hike rates, taking their rate from 1% to 1.25%. And this was the very first time that we saw an interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan in over 31 years. Now, I'm not going to go super deep into why Japan specifically is important because I could make a whole video about that. But essentially, Japan's interest rate is very important to the global economy because many countries and companies and major entities actually have leverage the fact that Japan only has a 1% interest rate to do what is called an a carry trade. And the easiest way to think about it without getting into the intricacies is that think about it right if you have one place where you can get a 1% loan and then you have another place where you can get a 5% yield. It's very reasonable to then go to that place, get the 1% loan, take the money that you got from the 1% loan, go take out that 5% yield somewhere else or 4% yield somewhere else and use 1% of that four or 5% yield that you generate to pay off your 1% loan. Then keep the spread, right? Bank of Japan is that place um that gives you the 1% loan. And then there are many other places of course that you can get four or five percent those are bonds right treasuries. Um but a lot of people have leveraged this and so one of the bigger concerns last week is like wow this carry trade might start to unwind a little bit. This has been a concern all year by the way but actually yeah last year as well. Um but in general people are a bit nervous that going from 1 to 1.25% could start having people going well this isn't worth it anymore. Unwinding that carry trade and then next thing you know the global economy starts to struggle because people are selling like foreign bonds and foreign treasuries and all these sorts of things. I can make a full video about it if you guys would want to, but in general it is an important thing. And I would actually go to say it's not just as important as the FOMC, not for US investors at least, but it it's pretty close. It's definitely pretty close. Okay. And so going into the end of last week, the market was pricing in all of these things. The market was pricing in this new environment where the United States is in a new interest rate hike cycle and the Bank of Japan is kind of changing things after decades. The market went into the end of the week just a little bit nervous. Ultimately ending the week around in the same place that it started it around in the same place that it started it. Right? So through all of the volatility right through the ups and through the downs we ended out the week around where we started after the market digested all this information that was in many ways already priced in. Okay. So with that in mind that ultimately sets the scene that going into this week you just need to exercise a bit of caution. Okay. Because now that the market has given its initial response, this week we find out how it really feels about the economic environment that we're in. Because remember what we got last week was already priced in. The market knew that was coming. So all of this price action and price movement, this was just repositioning. This was just, you know, liquidations and capitulation. There wasn't really anything super dramatic in here because it was already priced in. So it gave us its initial response. But now that we are past that event, now that we're past this catalyst and the market's going to start looking forward, okay, what's going to happen with the Fed moving forward? What's going to happen with the Bank of Japan moving forward? What's going to happen with some approaching earnings? This is when the market's really going to tell us how it feels. You know, is it feeling a bit nervous? Is it feeling a bit cautious? Is it feeling a bit optimistic? We're going to find out that. We're going to find that out this week. But I would exercise a little bit of caution because there's definitely going to be a lot of uncertainty this week. Now, that takes us into those events that I was telling you about. Do you remember at the beginning of the video I said there are some very consequential and impactful events happening basically every day this week? Well, those events that I was talking about were the fact that essentially every single day we have FOMC members speaking. So, remember the Federal Reserve, the FOMC, it's not only made up of Kevin Worsh. The FOMC at every single meeting has 12 voting members. You know what I mean? So, it's not just Kevin Wars. There are other people who go and give their opinion and give their thoughts. Kevin Worsh is just kind of like the he's the he's the chair, right? So he's the spokesperson for the Fed, but he's not the one in control of everything. There's a there's a vote that's going on. And so this week we are going to see again essentially an FOMC member speak every single day. If we look at the breakdown, on Monday we have Goulsby. On Tuesday we have Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin. On Wednesday we have Bar. On Thursday we have Williams, Hamik, and Pollson. Then Friday we have Williams and Hammock again. Now on those days that they're going to be speaking, we also have Thursday we have jobless claims coming in. And on Friday, we have durable goods and consumer sentiment coming in, which are just two important um economic pieces of data that are factored into what the Fed decides to do. Not like a lot. It's not that important, but these pieces of data are just coming out on the same days that we're also seeing these FOMC members speaking. And so I need you to understand that as the market is digesting the hikes from last week, now they're going to go into this week, the market's going to go into this week digesting the information or the perspectives given by the FOMC members, given by the people who determine whether or not we see interest rate hikes or not, right? So just think about that. We're going into this week trying to figure out how we feel about the future and then we're going to be given perspective from the people who determine the future of monetary policy every single day. And I personally believe that every single day, every single speech can absolutely move the market. I mean, just think about what happened with Christopher Waller. Do y'all remember when Christopher Waller spoke uh it must have been three weeks ago now or so something like that, three or four two, three, four weeks ago, somewhere in there. And he essentially said um if in if inflation data continues to trend in the right direction, I will be in support of not hiking rates at the next meeting. The second that he said that, the odds of an interest rate hike happening at the next influency meeting fell about 10% and the market pumped. That was just one guy giving his opinion. This week we have one multip on some Sundays we have multiple people multiple people in FOMC giving their opinion every single day. Okay. And so that's why I was saying while everybody's going, "Oh yeah, you know, this week's going to be calm and relaxed." I'm going we have FOMC members speaking every single day. The market went nuts after one last time. And so what I think is going to happen is that every single time that we get a speech, every time that we get a talk or a perspective from an FOMC member, the market's going to digest that information and use it to continue to build up a narrative or a thesis of what it thinks is going to happen in the next meeting and the next meeting and the next meeting. And so all in all, I actually think this is going to be a very important week and maybe not a crazy wild volatile week, but definitely an impactful and consequential one that we're going to want to watch very closely. And to be honest, if we look at the charts real quick, the charts agree. The charts agree that this is an important week. For example, if we look at the spy, whenever I'm looking at the spy, what we can see is that the spy made a very important move last week. The spy was in this descending structure. It broke down through this descending structure. It found a little bit of support around the $750 psychological level and then use that support to bounce back in this descending structure. Going into this week, there's a big question that needs to be answered here. Does the spy maintain in the structure? Does it stay in the structure? Or does it just fall right back out of it? Because if it falls right back out of it, guys, I mean, some sort of capitulation all the way back down into your bottom side golden zone that takes the spy back into, let's call it, $739 to $745 territory is more than reasonable. So, the spy itself is getting ready to make a big decision. The market's getting ready to make a big decision. Obviously, we have major speeches coming up over the course of this week that are going to be in extremely impactful and consequential for whether or not people believe the Fed are going to continue to hike rates and how that's going to impact the bond market. And I think all of this is going to have a pretty dang big impact on our portfolios. It doesn't matter if you're in AI. It doesn't matter if you're in fintech or if you're in health, you know, healthcare insurance. I don't think it matters. I think we're all going to feel the future looking forward guidance sentiment shift impact our portfolios. So, we are going to need to be prepared for it. So, my current game plan, knowing that we have this spy about to make a big decision, knowing that we have some big events coming up this week, what I'm going to do is I'm actually going to be doing some purchasing. I'm going to get ready to do some buying if the market's red. If we have red at any given point, I'm going to accumulate. But, I'm actually going to prioritize some of my bigger individual positions. So, I told you all last week that if I was going to buy last week, which I did, I was only really going to focus on the S&P 500 position just because look, we're in a big week. We have an FOMC meeting. We have all this stuff going on. I don't want to try to play the game and invest into individual positions because the volatility is just going to be too high. Now that we're past that, I'm comfortable investing into some of my individual positions. So, I'm going to actually try to add to some of them if given the opportunity. Like, for example, SoFi, if I am given the opportunity to get some SoFi anywhere around my buy zone, you guys know my buy zone for SoFi sits right down here, right around $15 or so, that's about a that's still a $2 drop from now, so it is still pretty far away. I will be looking to buy some SoFi. Um, Robin Hood. I'm not interested in buying any Robin Hood right now because our position is holding up well. But outside of that, another one that I am looking at right now is Hyperscalers. I'm looking at my hyperscalers because I do think that we could have some interesting opportunities for accumulation this week to finally push this portfolio. This new little portfolio we're building over 10,000 bucks, especially if I can get a little bit more Microsoft. If Microsoft would finally pull back or, you know, if I can grab a little Amazon, I'll happily scoop one of those ones. And I'm actually thinking about going in and building up finally my position American Express in the cohort that we were doing yesterday. Shout out to all of you who were in there by the way. We were looking at American Express. And look, at the end of the day, American Express is starting to look a little juicy to me. It's coming back down into its bottom side golden zone. You're starting to get some overextension signals seeming like they're going to flash soon. We don't have the divergences yet, but we are overextended. I go, yeah, I think AX might, you know, AX is now starting to enter into my buy zone, right? Amex is now coming back down, hitting that golden zone of support. I might add a little bit of Amex, you know, and what I was actually considering doing is rotating out of Mastercard into Amex because my Mastercard positions up, right? Mastercard has been performing well over the last few months. Amex hasn't been performing well over the last few months. So, it's like, okay, maybe I go in, take my gains from Mastercard, rotate that into Amex, and then I go from there, right? So, I'm thinking about making some moves in my individual positions. You guys know I will update you as it plays out, especially those of you who are in the Discord. So, make sure to join the Discord down below, but I'm definitely going to be deploying a bit of cash this week if I'm given the opportunity to. So, I'll keep you guys updated as it all does play out, but you're definitely going to want to keep a close eye on what, you know, what these FOMC members say and how they feel and things of that nature because it is going to, of course, set the tone for what the market expects moving forward. So, I'll be here every step of the way updating you all as it does play out. Don't forget that if you do want a quick recap, a quick game plan to refer back to throughout the week that we have the free newsletter linked down below. You just enter in your name, choose what you invest in, and enter in your email, and we will start sending them to you moving forward. So, I hope you guys did enjoy today's quick update video. If you did, don't forget to let me know by smashing that like button on the way out, and I can't wait to see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.