And No One Believes It...

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all the other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. Just before we get into this, I want to give a warm welcome to the new Slice Crew members. If anyone is interested in chart requests and Q&A videos done on a weekly basis, there's a link for the Slice Crew in the pinned comment and description. I think I can even put a card up here if you want to go and click it. And there's also an option for a one-toone direct line to me, which people like to come in and out of until they get what they need. So, consider it. It's up to you. Let's get into today's show. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel. And yesterday we got a slightly hot CPI print. So, here are the numbers. I said in yesterday's video, if I had to guess, we would get an inline or slightly cold print. And we were 0.1 above forecast. And I noticed a bunch of people, especially on Twitter and in my comments, just losing their minds. It was like CPI comes in.1% hot and the market is printing a half cycle low, which was called in advance. And people were melting down. It makes you wonder, right? How do they live like this? Get some cycles in your life. So long as we can reverse by the end of the week, then all is right with the world. Based on the futures, it looks like the half cycle low is pretty much in effect. This, however, looks like we're about to do a third tour in Nazdistan, but we'll figure that out. I think it's just going to back fill some gaps as I'll show you in a moment. There was an initial knee-jerk reaction where the rates repriced to about 50/50. And again, people came out, oh, your macro is terrible. What happened to this? I guess we're hiking more rates. But by the end of the day, we're back to this, which is essentially no change. I think this is down a few%. Can't exactly remember what it was yesterday. I think it might have been about 75% in yesterday's video. But we are still overwhelmingly thinking, at least the market is. I mean, we're probably going to remain paused at the next meeting. So, in life, we each get to choose, right? You can be the type of person that reacts to the headline data and gets frustrated by the tape and reacts to every knee-jerk move in the market, completely ignoring people like me that say, "Expect some chop games and volatility in CPI." I I literally say this every month. And those types of people probably have a dining room chair in the corner of their bedroom facing the bed. Bruh, what did he say? Anyway, the point is this, right? You can be those types of people or you can have a look under the hood at what's going on really, okay? You can have a little drill down into the data and see if everything is quite as it seems or not. And so we did get a hotter than expected print solely due to shelter. No surprises there. It's always shelter causing the problem. And the Fed keeps talking about this inflation being above target for about five and a half years now. They never say what is actually above target. What they are talking about is not inflation. Those are a few flawed statistical components that don't show actual inflation. In the case of core PCE, we're talking about disrupted seasonal adjustments and a few components that misrepresent actual inflation, including trade services, portfolio management, software, legal services. And yes, those components are still misrepresented even after last month's revisions. Now, check this out. Okay, in the case of core CPI, the shelter components add in 3.2% year-over-year, which keeps showing these pie in the sky numbers. Meanwhile, if you substitute for a real-time metric like ALNRI, we've been negative for over 3 years. Here's a visual representation of this. Blue is the shelter. It makes the inflation look significantly stickier than when you use a real-time metric, which as you can see has been significantly below target for ages. And what happens if you switch shelter for actual rent inflation? You wouldn't believe it, but core CPI with ALRI drops to just 0.8% year-over-year. Is that above target? Of course not. So, what is going on here? You've just got, like I said, these two types of people. One that had these knee-jerk reactions to the tape. They believe the headline data. they never think hard on it. And then there are those that actually look underneath the hood. And when you look underneath the hood, you get a completely different picture and a completely different story. And so to finish up this thread from Marco here, the Fed has been telling us they'll likely hike rates because statistics are having a hard time measuring some of the key components. And I have long been making the case this is not what it seems. Okay? But now the bond market is also catching on to this. That is why this is still sitting up at 70%. And the bond market is finally working this out because CPI comes in hot and yields went down, not up. Yes, there was a knee-jerk reaction as I said, but the knee-jerk reactions are solely there to jerk around the amateurs, right? You can't allow yourself to be jerked around by the market like this. Zooming out, stocks do seem to be printing a half cycle low and hopefully then resuming the yellow squiggle. We were talking about how perfect this setup was, okay, that this is a day 20 half cycle low right into CPI. So, so long as we close the week with a swing in place, we can start to target fresh highs again, no real problem there. The NASDAQ is obviously shaking out a little bit more than anticipated, but I think based on today's move, which is what was it down about 300 and something points, it gets us right to back fill that gap. Okay, so is that enough to reset this? Looks like we're nearly there. And then hopefully, so long as we can get a swing and a turn and start progressing higher again, nothing is really out of the ordinary here. Dow seems to be leaving behind a swing. And as I showed you from the futures earlier, seems to be confident in setting up a breakout trade soon. Okay, so things don't look too bad. The small caps are suffering a bit, but I expect those to be completing a weekly cycle turn imminently. And you can see that here on the weekly time frame. Okay, so perhaps we get something like this hopefully to finish the week up and then I would expect overperformance from the small caps again. This yellow squiggle has been added here. I've been talking about this with the members. Once we get a breakout, I think I'm going to add one final tranch in the long-term account and then we'll see what the market has to give from there. So stocks so far, despite the panic, despite the CPI print, despite the rhetoric, they seem to be doing what we expected them to do. Same is true of the semis. I know the semi quite volatile. They kind of get people nervous. But it really does look like a half cycle low shakeout. It looks like the oscillators close to resetting. And again, similarly, so long as we can print swings and start to close out the week without too much more damage, then we can't really conclude anything other than a half cycle low is in place. Obviously, that could change if we can't print a swing today or tomorrow, but I think you got to give these things the benefit of the doubt for now at least. Gold and silver still seem to be heading down for new daily cycle lows and ultimately more yearly cycle lows. Silver looks like it's pretty much doing this. So, happy days. Can't really say anything is out of the ordinary there. It's also pretty interesting when I was talking about sentiment back here. A lot of people came out of the woodwork to be toxic during this neighborhood and say cycles didn't work and you missed the bottom and whatever. Well, right now we get a chance to buy the bottom again. Except it probably is prudent just to wait for another daily cycle to unfold, sweep these lows, and then happy days. Of course, the irony of the way market psychology works is that the people that were clowning on me for not taking part in this will likely conclude that this is not to be touched and is only just getting started once we actually get there. It's just the way market psychology works. He always said should print a local high within a couple of weeks and continue the yellow squiggle. And so, the idea for this is pretty simple. Within a couple of weeks, we should be topped with a lower high, maybe another fake breakout because oil does love to do that to people and then resume down towards that yearly cycle low. Rates and TLT, I know everyone thinks they were never going to top, but let's certainly at the moment showing signs of a potential top. So, we at least expect the yields to come down here and throw a fake trend line breakdown into the weekly cycle low and then we get to find out. If I'm completely wrong on this setup, that weekly cycle low will resolve to new highs. The other path which I actually think is most likely here is that we get a lower high, some sort of top in formation and then we roll over. And the cycles fit this from the yields and of course they fit this from TLT which so far appears to be staging a nice swing inside of the timing window as expected. One day at a time as always this is a work in progress. There is a lot of work still to be achieved here. There's a lot of progression these charts need to make before we can say yes these calls are in play and they are continuing to be in play. It's an amateur kind of take on the market to see something like this and start jumping up and down and saying I told you so. Okay, that is how you get wrecked. Have to acknowledge this is merely the first signs of a trend reversal. Okay, but there's again a lot of work to do in the meantime. But so far so good. One day at a time as always open to everything as always. Bitcoin is following the short-term yellow squiggle and the long-term yellow squiggle. The short-term yellow squiggle looks like this. I have to get long. I have to respect this daily cycle low in case what we do here is pump higher. If we do something like this, then of course I need some exposure to this move before we get that larger scale correction into the weekly cycle low timing window. This whole thing will look suspiciously like a head and shoulders bottom. Okay? And then it should be time for a new bull market. But what we don't want to do here is fall into that trap that a lot of people would make and that's start to say, I'm going to ignore my invalidation. I was right all along and we're going to continue to target new lows. To be dogmatic about this and say, oh, I knew I was going to be right eventually. I think that's a dangerous game to play. to use a boxing analogy here. Sometimes you have to take a shot to land a shot. And so I want to take the shot here in case what we get is this. Because if we do, then we'll only be able to say, well, yeah, we had a bottom, we had invalidation occur, we got a higher low pullback, and then we marched onwards. By the time you get up here, if you don't have any exposure to the move, you just find yourself completely locked out of the rally. A lot of people fell into this trap in the last cycle. They kept saying, "Oh, one more dip to 12K and then I'll buy." And then all of this happened up at 25K. and they were going, "Yep, as soon as this thing rolls over to 12K, I'll buy." And then it just marched up to 50K. Suddenly, all those people had missed the entire bull run. So, I want to take the shot to land the shot here. I don't want to be dogmatically sticking with the idea that this may happen. Instead, I want to get my exposure, assume bullishness, and worst case scenario, we pay a stop, we head down here, and then we actually get to buy the low. In either case, I can position for both outcomes. I think it's a dangerous game to see this and just start telling yourself, "Oh, yeah. I knew I was going to be right. Of course I'm right. Of course it's a four year cycle low. Of course the lows aren't in yet. Okay. As much as the temptation may be there to do that. As much as Twitter and YouTube clout rewards that kind of reckless thinking and dogmatic approach and the need to say I told you so or not pivot stance, that is a dangerous game to play. And like I said, we saw this wreck a lot of people last cycle. So what I want to do is get long once this daily cycle low confirms. Assume bullishness. Okay. And that will be the short-term yellow squiggle in play. Of course, I will welcome getting a lower high and a left translation and a failed daily cycle. I would welcome paying a stop here to be able to buy the actual lows. I will also note I think based on the sentiment around these lows and during this pump, this would actually make sense in hindsight. Similarly to what we saw in the gold trade recently, but again, I want the market to prove that to me rather than just dogmatically pick a stance so I can come back and say I told you so. So, for now, short-term yellow squiggles in play, pending confirmation. Expect me to get long level three members notified in real time. I've already been over them with a plan for spot leverage, whatever. And then the longerterm count is this that we are still not done with the highs. We'll get this pull back into the weekly cycle low window. That pullback will form a higher low completing an inverse head and shoulders pattern and that will be the final opportunity to load the boat. I'm assuming this until invalidated. And the reason for that is simple, right? If you think about it in terms of we project into the future and then look back with hindsight in here I said okay we expect this with an invalidation at this big red line now if price comes up hits my invalidation pulls back to a higher low and then moves into a new bull market and I don't buy this low I just go oh there it goes I knew I was going to be right new lows are coming by the time we get up here all you can do is accept that you're now a meme right like you doubted the rally you didn't pivot when your invalidation was hit you ignored the signs and now you're locked out of the bull market. That's what a lot of people did last cycle. A lot of people. So to avoid this situation, we have to take this approach of okay, invalidation was hit. Time to get bullish. If this happens, fine. Okay, we pivoted. We got exposure. By the time we're up here, a lot of people will be locked out and it's too late for them, but at least we got some exposure. Worst case scenario, this happens. Okay, we come back here. Sentiment will be completely destroyed. Down in Goblin Town is where we do the best. And then we'll say, okay, well, we paid a stop, but at least we get to actually buy the lows. We'll also be able to come back in hindsight and say, well, yeah, that made sense. Sentiment didn't really match here, just like in the gold setup. But again, it's important not to be dogmatic about that. It is important to target new bullish price action until proven. Otherwise, it's easier to pivot from bearish to bullish to back to bearish again than it is to just say, well, the market has to do this because fouryear cycles and I can't be wrong and yada yada yada. So, in the interest of not getting locked out, got to play this trade soon. And thus, the short-term yellow squiggle, this one is still in play. And the long-term yellow squiggle, this one is also still in play until proven otherwise. If proven otherwise, we can say, "Okay, fine. Makes sense in hindsight. We look for this." Or even the original yellow squiggle just with a deviation to the upside. But for now, I don't want to entertain that. I'd rather pivot once and then pivot back again than get locked out trying to prove a point and say, "I told you so on Twitter." So all we really need the too long didn't read is as long as we can get some swings this week, the half cycle low in the stocks, the daily cycle low in Bitcoin and the rest of the yellow squiggles can continue one day at a time to complete and to validate, then everything should be honky dory. Invalidations exist for a reason, but so far it doesn't look like any of those are going to be needed. So watch for the swing to form today or tomorrow in the stocks. Watch for oil to throw another head fake and then head lower below these lows at least. Watch for the metals to come down and sweep their lows. hopefully providing us a very nice opportunity to actually buy the lows and add the miners and the individual mining stocks. Watch for Bitcoin to confirm a daily cycle low any day now likely with a trend line break above here. Okay, we'll set this as our confirmation signal. Breet's almost done at the bottom as well. Indicator should pick this imminently. You can see it's through the window now. So, it should be ready to pick this at the very next opportunity. Haven't looked at Ether in a while, but we're going to find out, right? Watch for the yields to keep coming off. Okay, that fake trend line breakdown would be the minimum I would really expect because this is a weekly cycle reset and then we get to find out. And watch for TTS to continue to push. The real thing I'm looking for here, I'm looking for two things. Step one is to break this downward sloping red resistance line. Okay, that would be the first good sign that we got a chance here. Then step two is to get back inside of this blue rectangle. Once we do that and hold it, I think we're pretty much there. And step three is to break this downward sloping red resistance line. If we can do that, then I think it's on. We got a new seven and a half year cycle upon us, which should mean we've got at least a year of rally ahead of us, probably more than a year of rally. It would be pretty unusual for TLT to rally for one year and then decline for 6 and 1/2 years in a bare market until the next 7 and 1/2 year cycle low. So don't be a tape slave one day at a time. Don't allow the market to jerk you around and take that dining room chair out your bedroom. I'm your boy Camel. Lots of love. Cheers. Bye. Camel finance. He's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key ride.