Bitcoin: Bull Case Vs. Bear Case

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin, the bull case versus the bare case. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As a reminder, we are having the first ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles, November 21st of this year. So, make sure you guys get your tickets if you have not yet. That's only about two and a half months away. Now, a lot of people have requested this video mainly because I did similar videos approximately four years ago. You can see here there was a Bitcoin bear versus bullcase video and it was recorded back on August 7th of 2022. And what I did in the video was to simply say let's put our bias aside, okay? Because in in this video, if you were watching me back then, right, I was bearish in August. Surprise, surprise. And I I wanted to better, you know, articulate what both cases were because if you're going to have a thesis about the market and how it should play out, I think you should also be aware of the counterpoint, the counter view because at the end of the day, we all get things wrong and and I I think that's a sobering reality that we all have to accept. So, what we're going to do, what I'm going to do in this video is I'm going to go through as many indicators that I can think of. I'm not saying I'm going through every single one because I'm sure there's some pretty obscure indicators out there, but I'm going to go through a lot of the major ones that we talk about on the channel, maybe some that we don't talk about as much, and just kind of tally up the bulls versus the bears. That is the objective of this video. Okay. Now, there will be times where it will be tempting to explain certain things away using a narrative, but we're not going to do that, right? We're not I'm not here to explain the narratives to you. This is simply looking at the data. Nothing more, nothing less. Okay? If you want to if you want to run with the narratives, then there's plenty of other places you can do that. We're just going to look at it and we're going to be fair. Okay? If something is objectively bullish, we're going to say that. And if it's objectively bearish, we're going to say that. We're not going to include a bias in this analysis. At least that is my objective. You can judge whether I am able to do that or not. So, the first thing we'll do is we'll make a tally. Okay? So, we're going to basically say we have the bull case versus the bear case, right? Bulls verse bears. And every time an indicator is a point for the bulls, we'll we'll we'll put that point there. And every time it's an indicator for the bears, we'll put that there as well. That is the objective. Okay. Now the first thing to look at is to say what does history tell us about the about the onchain indicators. So I I like to start with the onchain indicators in this scenario. So what we're going to do is if you go over to the onchain risk metric, there's several different indicators on here. There is the peel multiple, the MVRV score, the MVRVZ score, transaction fees, terminal price, which is really uh more so for the tops and the bottoms, but and then the market cap to thermal cap and the minor capture to thermal cap. Okay, so let's go through a few of those and see what is going on. So, we're going to start with a pure multiple. So if you look at the PE multiple what you'll notice is that approximately every four years the PE multiple goes below 04. You see that? You see this 04 every few years it bottoms just below it. Okay. Now in 2011 you can see it went below it. Same thing in 2014, 2015, 2018 and again in 2022. In this cycle, it has not. Now, the hard part with this is whether we compare this to the 4-year cycle idea, which is relevant, or the 2019 comparison, which is relevant. And what's difficult about it is depending on which one you prefer might dictate whether you give the point to the Bulls or the Bears. However, with that said, even in 2019, it it went all the way down to 43, basically 04. Now, I know what you're thinking. You're like, "Well, that was due to the pandemic." I get it. But the point is is regardless of how it got down there, it got down there. It's a point for the Bears, right? it again. We can't know what would have happened in 2019 had the pandemic not occurred. We we just simply cannot know. Maybe the bare market would have dragged on longer for another few months. Maybe it would have done something completely different, right? I don't fully know. Now, you might look at 2019 and 2020 and say, "Look, Bitcoin went back up to a prior high and that's never happened before, right? every time that has happened, it's been a new bull market. But that's also not true because if you go in 20 and you look at 2015, there was a similar pattern, right? Bitcoin rallied up to a prior high and still sold off. If you look at 2014, the same thing happened. Bitcoin rallied back up to a prior high and still sold off. So we cannot by itself say that that is a point for the bulls because we were actually the peel multiple was lower in the bull market than in the bare market. So for that one it's going to go to the bears. And again I'm I'm going to try to be as fair as possible and we're going to go back and forth some. Okay. So before we continue with the onchain indicators, let's find one for the bears. And a very simple one to look at is the relative strength index. Okay, if you look at the RSI, the relative strength index. Now, let's clean this up a little bit so it looks a little bit easier to read. What you'll notice is that the the RSI on the weekly already went all the way down to 26. And if you look at the prior cycle, it bottomed at around 26 as well. Now the counterpoint is that where it bottomed in 2022 at 25 or 26 was not the actual low for Bitcoin. But that was also true this time as well, right? That you can see that the the low that we occur that that actually occurred in early July was on a higher low just like it was in 2022. So when you look at it like this, right? If we if we make this comparison, the higher low on the RSI and then a rally on up, that to me objectively would favor the bulls over the bears. Now, there's no guarantee that we won't come back down and form another higher low. And at that point, we'll figure out if it's a higher high on the price of Bitcoin or if it's a lower high. But the reality is if you look at this chart, you can see that anytime the RSI goes down to those levels, you got to start thinking about the low being in. Now look at 2015. The low the the four-ear cycle low was in, but we still put in a higher low sometime later. You see that? You see how it came back down in August of 2015, put in a higher low on the RSI, and it was the third higher low, and it was a lower price on Bitcoin. But in 2022, it was a higher high, a higher low. So, this is one where you could maybe try to make a case for the Bears if you want to get into like some longer 2014, 2015 type analysis. But objectively, it favors the bulls, right? it just does and no amount of mental gymnastics will change that. So that would be a point for the bulls. Now the monthly RSI would also be a point for the bulls. Okay? Because if you look at the monthly RSI, what you'll see is that it basically went to the same level that it went to in prior bare markets. Now, the reason why this one's a little tricky is because I don't really know if we should measure it sort of like a straight line. Because if you measure it as a straight line, it would look more like the low was in. If you look at it like that though, sort of like a a slightly slightly lower lows each cycle because we've also pretty clearly had sort of lower highs. then you could look at it and say, well, you know, it could go a little bit lower and still not break this pattern. But with that said, I still think it is more so a point for the bulls than the Bears just because of how close it got. Now, if we do get one more drop into the fourth quarter, I imagine that this would reset and then we'd be back and then, you know, hopefully be back in business. And the reason why I'm going to give this to the bulls is because in 2019 where we had an apathetic top, you can see it did not go all the way down before moving back up. So that's why that's another reason why it's actually going to go to the bulls. So now we got two for the bulls and one for the bears. Two two to one. Now let's go back to the onchain stuff because the onchain stuff is is interesting. And what we're going to look at is we're going to look at the MVRV Zcore. This is the market value to realize value Zcore. Now, objectively, every prior low in the market occurred after Bitcoin's MBRV Zcore went below zero. 2011, 2015, 2018, 2022. And you might say, well, hold on a second, Ben. What about 2019, 2020? Well, at first it didn't. It it it it found a low at around three and guess what where we just found a low a little bit lower 0.18 but the reason why it's difficult is because even in that scenario it did still event it did did it still did eventually resolve lower and this is one of those things where a lot of people are going to scream at the screen and say no that was the pandemic but again that's a narrative we're not We're just looking at what happened because in 2022 you could say, "Oh, well, it was, you know, it was because of FTX and and and and Celsius collapsing that caused it." Or in 2014, you could say, "Oh, it was Mount Gox that caused it." Or in 2018, you could say it was because of, you know, sort of the protocol wars between people and and the forks that we had. You can always find a reason, but we're not here to find reasons. We're just here to say what happened. And what happened is that Bitcoin's MBRVZ score bottomed below zero and it has not gone below zero yet. Okay. So, objectively that would be a point for the bears, right? I mean, it just would you cannot look at at this chart and act like it's fully reset when it hasn't. Now, that doesn't mean that it will fully reset, but you cannot look at that chart by itself and be like, "Oh, yeah, it's fully reset." when you can see every prior time in history where this occurred, it eventually went lower. So that would be another one. Okay. So then we have transaction fees. This is a little looser. Okay. This is not the best indicator to be completely honest and and it's really changed over time. But if you set this to like a log scale, you can see that transaction fees when the bottom was in um were relatively low, right? There just wasn't a lot of interest. And so that's all we really have to go off of. But you can see that transaction fees are basically at the same spot they were at in 2022 when the low occurred again. It it found a low, bounced, and then came back down. So, it's hard to know, but I feel like this is one that would have to go to the bulls, right? I cannot look at this and be like, "Oh, no. It has to go lower." There's not a lot of people here, right? I mean, like I don't maybe it goes lower, but I think objectively it would be a point for the bulls because of just how low it is. Now, a point for the bears would be if you were to look at both the realized price and the balance price of Bitcoin. Okay? So, first if you look at the price of Bitcoin with the green line, the green line is the realized price. And every bare market, Bitcoin has not bottomed until it went below the realized price. It did it in 2011. In 2014, by the way, in 2014, we didn't even go below the realized price until October. And it still wasn't the bottom. I mean, imagine that. Imagine Bitcoin does sell off into October, goes below the realized price, everyone buys because it's the four-ear cycle low. we bounce and then we go lower again. Think about how crazy that would be. But that's what happened in 2014. By the way, in 2014, we also had a rally to a high, a drop, and then a rally back up near the high that lasted for a month or so, and then the drop into October occurred. But you can see it in 2014, we went below the realized price. In 2018, we went below the realized price. It didn't happen till November. In 2019, 2020, but it's a pandemic bin. I know, but we're not. We don't know that. We're looking at the chart. That's all we have. We don't have the narrative to support it because who knows what the narrative might be this time if it were to happen. It still happened is the point. It still happened. 2022, we went below the realized price in June. Now, if you take the price of Bitcoin and divide it by the realized price, you get a chart that looks like this. And you can pretty clearly see that it goes below it every few years. And it has not done that yet. So, objectively, it would be a point for the bears because the bears could just simply say that every prior bare market, including the apathetic one, had a low below the realized price. So, that would be a point for the bears. Now, the bears are about to get another point because if you were to look at an even more bearish indicator, the balance price, Bitcoin also has gone below the balance price historically. And if you look at the price divided by the bounce price, you can see that we're nowhere close to that. So you couldn't look at this chart and say definitively that it's a case for the bulls. The only way you could look at this and make the objective case for the bulls is to say that this is just 2019 but without the pandemic. Okay, again, we're about to go into the fourth quarter of 2026. I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know. But if it were to go back down to the lows, it wouldn't be abnormal. If it doesn't go to the lows by the end of the year, then you could probably look at this and say, "All right, this time is different." And perhaps we know what would have happened now in 2019 had there not been a pandemic. Maybe it would have just started out a lot higher from the lows and rallied and then it would have dropped later on. absolutely a valid way that it could be construed. But unfortunately, we're not chasing the narrative. We're just looking at what actually happened. And what actually happened is that Bitcoin went below the bounce price. Okay? So that would be a point for the bears. Now, if you continue this line of thinking, you could also go look at there's there was a couple others as well. I don't know if we need necessarily need to cover all of them because sometimes they they basically get to be about the the same thing. Um but we do have things like the market cap uh or sorry the uh market cap to thermal cap ratio I believe is one market cap to thermal cap ratio and and this is one where you can see the historical lows have occurred when this is below 10 and it was actually below 10 in 2019 before the pandemic and we still haven't made it there yet. So, if you look at the market cap to thermal cap ratio, by the way, if you don't know what this stuff is, uh just pause the video and read the description and or the usage. Like, you can do that pretty pretty easily here if you're not because I'm not going to go through every description. But this one would be a point for the bears because it just simply has not fully reset. The counterpoint again is that it didn't go as high as prior bull markets, but it also didn't in 2019, and it still reset even without the pandemic. So now you got five points for the bears and three for the bulls. Now there's a really interesting chart and I made a I made a video on this earlier in the year and and some of you might remember it. It was called Bitcoin, a beautiful chart and this is objectively a point for the bulls because this chart shows you the cycles, right? It clearly shows you the cycles and the argument is every time these cross the low is in after it. Now you can see that they crossed back in June of 2026 and then they uncrossed. So there's the argument that maybe the low in July could have been the low because this metric would have already crossed. Now the counterpoint is that in 2022 they also crossed in the summer but then they crossed again in in September, October, November. So crossing in the summer did not keep Bitcoin from keep this metric from crossing again. But if you just look at it objectively, we wouldn't have we wouldn't say that this has to cross again. We would just say that historically the lows occurred after these two metrics cross and they crossed and then a low occurred after it. So objectively this would be a point for the bulls. Like I cannot look at this chart and be like oh no, Bitcoin has to go lower, right? So that would be a point for the bulls pretty clearly. Like really really clearly a point for the bulls. No question about it. And and if you apply a moving average to it, like a 14-day moving average, you can kind of clearly see it. Yes, there are times where it drops down and then goes right back up. But again, it crossed and then a low occurred. So that would be a point for the bulls. All right. pretty clearly through and through. Now, if we go over to the minor cap to thermal cap ratio, what you'll see here is that in prior lows, it was way lower, right? So, like in 2011 and and 2015, you can see this was a lot lower, like 0.2, but in the last two cycles, it was 04. This one, it's only gone down to about.7. You could argue that there was a big jump from from this one to the next one from 0 2 to then point 4, but I don't know. I mean 04 to 7 almost point8 seems like a much larger jump. I guess if you're just multiplying it by two it could be argued, but I think with this one it's a it's kind of in a gray area like it's not as clear but I think it would favor the bears more than more than the bulls. I mean, you can even see the lower highs on this metric kind of line up if you were to draw a line through that. But I'm not yet convinced that 745 is low enough, especially where it was the last couple of bare markets to justify it. 6 maybe, you know, but 75 I I don't know. I think this one have to be a point for the bears. Okay, fix that. So, it's currently six to four is the count for anyone keeping track. Now, if you were to look at the long-term the huddle waves, if you look at like long-term huddle waves, what what you'll typically see, there's actually a really convincing pattern that occurs um you know, throughout bare markets, and that's that long-term holder accumulation tends to go up, right? See that? it tends to go up. And so what normally happens is long-term accumulation, long-term holder accumulation moves higher and then it kind of just plateaus for a while and that's where the low occurs. You can see that's what happened in 2018. You can see in 2022 again it went up and then just kind of plateaued for a while and that was where the low occurred. And the same thing here, right? Like it went up and then now it's plateaued. You know, could it plateau a little bit longer and then low occur a little bit later? Yeah. But objectively, I I think you would probably give this one to the bulls because if you were to flip the script and instead of looking at at long-term holders, if I can change it to short-term holders, major lows have occurred when the short-term when the short-term holder uh levels are low, the hot waves, and it's been pretty low. So, I think with this one, you would have to give it to the bulls, right? Like, I don't think you could look at that and say, "All right, no, this is a bearish case. This actually looks more bullish to me than bearish. Now, what I want to do is get in and we might come back to some onchain stuff, but I I'd like to get into more of the timebased stuff. And we're going to look at this in in more than one way. So, the first way we're going to look at it is through the lens of the 2019 comparison. From a timebased perspective, not price. We're not looking at price yet. From a timebased perspective, the 2019 bare market, which we've made the comparison for, and if you don't understand why, go watch the other videos. I don't have the time to explain it in this video cuz this video is already going to be long. Um, maybe I will explain it. We'll see. Look at it though. The the 2019 to 2020 bare market, even including the pandemic, lasted about 9 months, and so did this one as of right now. So if you want to make the 2019 to 2020 comparison it from a timebased perspective it goes to the uh it goes to the bulls not the bears. It only goes to the bears when you make the pricebased comparison where you know in 2018 and 2019 we held support at 6K and then eventually it fell to 3 to 4K. Right? In 2026 we're holding support at 60,000. Does it eventually make that same fall? But from a timebased perspective, this goes to the bears. Now, if you look at the year-to-ate ROI of Bitcoin in midterm years, like 2026, and you were to look at the average of prior midterm years and overlay a standard deviation on that average on average, you know, and by the way, you might say, well, it's out of the standard deviation, but so what? Like, every bull market, you kind of go out of it at some point or below it at some point, and it's not necessarily the end, right? You can see it happened in 2022 and 2014. This one historically Bitcoin we know bottoms later in the year historically from a four-year cycle perspective. So the four-year cycle perspective would likely say that the low occurs later in the year. But even that's not inherently true. Okay? Because the four-year cycle doesn't say that the market has to bottom in the fourth quarter. The mark it just says the market bottoms approximately every four years. And if you look at the S&P 500, you can see there were plenty of times in prior cycles where it bottomed in October, like in 1966 and 1974. But in 1970, it actually bottomed in May. So I I would still say that this is a four-year cycle. This looks like a pretty convincing four-year cycle, right? You have 1966, 1970, 1974. Just because in one of those years it happened a little bit early does not negate the four-year cycle. So, I would argue this might piss a lot of people off. But again, I'm just telling you, and I've I said this even earlier, I said you could have a low as early as May and and the four-year cycle still be intact. But from from just the perspective of what Bitcoin has historically done, it normally bottoms later in the year. So, that would go towards the bears. However, I do think that the bulls could have a case by simply pointing to the stock market and saying, "Look, it has previously gone through four-ear cycles where the low occurred kind of closer to the summer time frame." So, I'm going to I'm going to give a point to the bulls as well in this case because I don't think we can clearly say beyond a shadow of a doubt that the four-year cycle would be dead if we don't go back down. I think in and I know today everyone would say it's dead, but if you're looking back at this in 20 years or something and you still saw a low in 2014 and 2018 and 2022 and 2026, are you really going to ring your hands because it occurred a few months earlier in the midterm year? No. You'll just say, "All right, we had a we had a slightly shorter bare market because we had an apathetic top, but that the four-year cycle still played out." So, I still think you could give it to the bulls. Although, my bias would be to give it to the Bears. I think the bulls would have a case which is why they get a point as well. Okay. Now, if you measure it from the low, okay, and we're just simply going to look at low to low, okay, for the last couple of cycles. Bitcoin topped within a week or two of when it always does. If that were to be the case, it would not bottom until around day 1432 to 13 1436. And we're currently on day 1387. So that's still about two months away, about maybe a month and a half away, like late October, early November time frame. This would be a point for the bears because, and the reason it is is because at the top, I remember telling people like, "Hey guys, like this is we've reached kind of the limits here, right? We're in the ballpark of when we should top and everyone was like, "No, like it's not going to happen." Because everyone's looking at the chart and if everyone's looking at it, then it won't happen. But then Bitcoin still topped. So now it's kind of the opposite is everyone's like looking at it and being like all right well if everyone's thinking it's going to happen then it won't but why can't it like why yes I agree that it might not be as likely but it still could right like it still could happen um there could still be a lot a drop into Q4 we don't know yet and that but that's what's always happened so for me that one would be more so a point for the Bears because every time in history where the bulls got overly excited and euphoric before the fourth quarter of the midterm year. They it was premature, right? And there was always something that happened that took Bitcoin lower. So that would be a point for the bears. Now, if you measure it from the ROI after the cycle peak and you go peak to peak, you can see that every prior time the low didn't occur until further out. So, we're currently on day 336. Uh last cycle the load did not occur until day 377. And then the cycle before that the load did not occur until um 365. And the cycle before that didn't occur until 406. Again, we're currently on only only day 337, but the low occurred in the 200s. So this would also be clearly a point for the bears. So it's 9 to7, right? And by the way, this is why everyone's so divided because you can find a reason to be bearish. You can find a reason to be bullish, you know? I mean, it's not hard. And and I think it's important to understand all of these points so that you can have a better understanding of what the other side is is seeing because if you're just going to be blindly bearish or blindly bullish and just say that the other side's complete that's not fair, right? Like the bears have a point, but so too do the bulls, right? It's not like there's no indicators that the bulls could look to, just like the bears have some indicators that they could look to. All models are wrong, some are useful. And in this case, some models are going to be wrong because they can't all be true, right? Something is going to win in the end. Something will. And we'll just see which one it is. Okay. So that would be the ROI from from the peak. Now this is a chart we don't look at as much, but it's the ROI after the having. Okay. So if you look at Bitcoin's ROI after the having, what you'll notice, and we take it out to the next having, what you'll notice is that the low historically has occurred further out generally speaking. Okay, we're currently on day 870 something. The low occurred around day 800, but last cycle, the actual low didn't occur until day 924. So about three months after the one we've already had. The cycle before that didn't occur until almost day 900. So again, about about 3 months later. The cycle before that, there was a low that occurred around day 800 on day 77 777. But this does not include intraday wicks in 2014, 2015. The low, believe it or not, and I we don't spend a lot of time talking about this, but back then the low did not occur in early January. Like I kind of like I I'll say a lot of times it occurred in early January. Some exchanges went lower in late 2025. In August 2025, you can see the low if you look here uh where it says low uh you can see in January the low was 16645 and then in August it was 162. So we actually went lower. So even in that case, the low on the intraday wick didn't occur until day 1. So this one I would lean more towards the bears. But in 2014, you can see there was a low around day 7 around day 800, which is exactly where we, you know, found an initial low and then there was a nice rally and then it just simply came back down. So, I'm going to give it to the bears just simply because even though the low was arguably in in January, we came back down after that. So, I'm going to give it to the bears, but there are some cases where the bulls might have a point. Okay, there there would be. So, I won't pretend like you can't find the bull case. Um, and you know what? To be fair, we're just going to give a point to the Bulls because I like I feel like I could look at that and if I jump through enough mental mental gymnastics hoops, like I could maybe find a reason. Okay. So, we'll we'll give a point to either side in that scenario. Now, here's one that is is a little tricky and I'm going to try to be fair, but it's volume. Okay. Now, look at at at volume. Sorry, I clicked on the wrong thing. So, every prior market cycle bottom for Bitcoin occurred on a volume spike. We've talked about this before, how volume falls off in the bare market and then once you hit a wall, you see that wall right there? That's where the low occurs. You can see it happened in 2014, 2015. And then the the the the low that occurred later didn't even have a volume, a massive volume spike. So that's a point for why the January low was the true low and not the one later in 2015. But you can see it happened in 2014. You can see in 2018, right, low volume and then you hit this massive move up on the spike. That was the low. And then 2022, same thing, right? You have your bare market and then you get these massive spikes that occur. 2026, no spike. 2019 did not have a spike after the top until the pandemic low. But again, how can I how can I just discount it? Like I I don't know what would have happened had the pandemic not occurred. And put it this way, it's not a point for the bulls that the pandemic occurred. It just might not be a point for the bears, right? It's not like we can know for sure what would have happened. We know that if you just look at it without narratives, it's a point for the bears because even though Bitcoin topped on apathy back then, the low was not in until you had a massive volume spike. Yes, due to a pandemic, but it doesn't matter, right? like you still had a massive volume spike regardless of how it occurred. So all we know is that we've had three mar market cycle tops in the past that bottomed on spikes in volume and then we have an apathetic top that bottomed on the pandemic. They all ended in fear even though it was an apathetic top. So we're going to give it to the bears. Okay. And I want to I want to briefly explain why very very quickly. Okay. Um and this is something I've wrestled with a lot. There's a lot of people that will like look at at at apathetic tops and say that you don't have to reset indicators, but in some ways in some ways an apathetic top a euphoric top implies there's interest in the space, does it not? Right? like it implies there's interest and and yes, you could argue that the people that are buying Bitcoin at the top of the euphoria are the are the reason it eventually goes back down and ends up dropping, you know, 70 80%. But it also shows that there's interest in the cryptoverse in in Bitcoin. What if right like I think there's this general thinking that social interest is going to come back and I hope it does right like I mean I really hope it does but it's been bleeding since 2021. Now I can look at this chart and I'm confident that social interest will eventually come back because if you compare this to the 2018 2019 era with tighter monetary policy it all makes sense. We didn't social interest didn't really start trending back up again until uh until looser monetary policy arrived. And what you'll notice is that social interest was starting to trend up and it was putting in higher lows and then we still went low to a lower low on the recession or on the yeah on in the pandemic drop. We have been trending up like social interest here has been trending up. So if anything you could argue that it is similar to 2019. The question is is do we get a final shakeout, right? Do we get a final shakeout? By the way, you could get a final shakeout and it just simply be a higher low, right? I am not opposed at all if that were to happen. Like if Bitcoin were to just simply fade here, come back down to like 60K, print a higher low, and go up, I could be perfectly fine with that. But just from the perspective of of social interest, I I don't think you can say definitively that it can't go lower. Like what if it just eventually goes lower because there's no one interested, right? Like what if what if social interest what if this is just simply printing another lower high? I don't necessarily believe that it has to go down to set a new low, but there is that case. Now, so we're going to give that one to to the bears. But with that said, if you were to look at at Sorry, I don't know why I went off that page. If you go back to the social interest chart and you you compare it to say the Coinbase app rankings, you can see that in 2018, Bitcoin found a low when this thing basically fell to the floor just like and and in 2022, it occurred after it fell to the floor. Well, it already fell to the floor. So, this chart would be more so in favor of the bulls. Right. I mean, clearly it would go more towards the bulls than the bears. And I don't think that that's particularly that crazy of a thought. If you were to look at Google Trends, that continues to trend down, right? Like that hasn't picked up at all. Wikipedia page views, I don't know who's looking at Wikipedia to learn about Bitcoin, but I mean, this is the the problem is like what if this just keeps trending down, you know? Um, what does that mean? Does it does it have to uh ever come back? I hope it does. I wouldn't be making videos about Bitcoin if I never thought it was if I thought it was never going to come back. I think it will come back, but what if I'm wrong, right? Like what if I'm wrong and or maybe it comes back, but it doesn't come back for 20 years or something. There are cases to be made for that, right? And you know, I could make one of them. Now, you know, one of the one of the things that I've talked about before are patterns. you know, and and this is a scary pattern, and I'm not going to dwell on it too much, but it it is a case for the bears, and I'm just going to plainly show it to you. Theatic ETFs often launch near the end of bull markets, not near the beginning of them. Okay? If you look at the QQQ, it was launched in 1999. But if you look at the NASDAQ, right, the NASDAQ was already in a major bull market before 1999. like it was it was it was already going up quite a lot well before 1999. But when the QQQ launched in like March of 99, you can see that propelled the final leg of the bull market. And what you'll notice is that the QQQ when it launched was at around 48. You see that 48. Now when Bitcoin's ETF launched, Bitcoin was at around 48K, right? It was it was right around 48K. And then what happened after the launch is that Bitcoin rallied up to a little over 120K, right? So 48 to 120. The QQQ went from 48 to 120. It did the same thing. And guess where the low was that occurred? Guess where the low occurred? Care to guess? 60. Where did Bitcoin's low occur? 60. So, we could look at this and say, well, this is different because this was an apathetic top, whereas that one was euphoric. But was it? Because the QQQ went from 48 to 120. Bitcoin went from 48 to 120. It's kind of the same thing, right? I mean, who are we to judge what the emotions were exactly? Who are we to judge? It just the the the price matches. The QQQ bounced off of 60, but then eventually it went lower. And honestly, this is what keeps me up at night. Not whether, you know, I don't buy enough Bitcoin before the next bull market starts. Like I bought some in early July when I said I was. But the thing that keeps me up at night is what if Bitcoin drops back down uh to, you know, into October, November, December, and what if it goes to where the QQQ went 52. Imagine that. Imagine if Bitcoin were to go to $52,000 in October. It'd be hard not to buy it, right? Because that's the four-ear cycle low. You know, load them all up. Bitcoin's below the realized price. Again, look at the realized price. Where is the realized price? It's at 53K. So, if Bitcoin were to drop to 52 in Q4, it'd be really easy to say that's the low. We're below the realized price. And then let's just forsake the balance price and assume it doesn't have to print. And then we get a bounce off of the realized price low. and we all celebrate because we bought, you know, what we thought was the true low. But then a little bit of time goes on and Bitcoin goes lower. And look at where the QQQ went next. It went to 33. Now look at the balance price. Where is the balance price? The balance price is currently at around 37 to 38K. So imagine that. Imagine you print a four-ear cycle low in October, November, and everyone celebrates buying the realized price. It then bounces and then it goes to the balance price. So the realized price, the balance price low and then surely after the balance price, right? Like surely that's got to be the low, right? And then it's not because then you get a recession because the AI the AI bull market finally comes to an end sometime after open AI IPOs, you know, next year. Okay, this is more so what keeps me up at night. the the fact that there's so many people looking at the chart and and the same can be said about the bull market too, right? A lot of people are like, well, you know, everyone thinks the low will occur in Q4, therefore it won't and so they think the low is in the summer, which is a realistic take, right? I mean, but again, the the low that occurred by Bitcoin in the summer 2018 was 5,700 and in summer 2026 57,000. And I told you guys this well like before the year even started. I said to expect a February low and to expect a low in the summer. And when the summer low occurred, we said expect a bounce, right? I mean, Bitcoin has rallied 40% after every summer low. You see that? So to me, that's got to be a point for the bears, right? Like I can't look at that and say that this time has to be different just because people want it to be different. What if what if the it the people the four-year cycle guys are wrong but not to the upside but to the downside like that that's also a possibility that I think people should consider and and the QQQ is not the only example. If you want to say that Bitcoin is digital gold, then let's take a look at gold, right? I mean, gold has had has had bare markets before that arguably, you know, like look at this bare market that gold had where it set a high like it had a drop, it then rallied, set a high and then but here it was a slightly lower low and then but a slightly lower high and then it came back down. Imagine imagine this is the Bitcoin chart. You have the February low, you have the July low, you have your October low, and then by then everyone's in the market, and then it still sells off, you know? So, there are plenty of reasons why when I think about like social interest and like it being low, does it mean it has to come back immediately? No. Like, what if it doesn't? There's no guarantee that it will. And that is that's the the the bare case, right? Like the bare case is to say, you know, a Q4 low is more of a pragmatic call as to this is what normally happens. But if social interests were to just continue to decline because people are just fed up with the asset class because all it is, all it's turned into recently is just memecoin griffs and scams. It could take years for social interest to come back. So we have to think about all possibilities. We cannot just say that oh social risk is low therefore the market has to go up. I imagine that social interest in gold was low in 2012 after it had been going nowhere for a couple of years to 2013 and it still bled for years before it started a new bull market. and the QQQ after it launched, I doubt there was much social interest by the time it was at 52 in January 2001, but it still went lower for years before it it started moving back up. So, social interest by itself is not an indicator that the bull market has to start. It's an indicator if there's people actually going to come back. if people are actually going to come back. But if people don't come back, then that's how you get these longer slow bleeds. Okay? So that's the reason why I would argue it's more so a point for the bears, not the bulls in terms of like social interest. You can look at these other comparisons and say, well, you know, yes, when the QQQ ETF launched, it outperformed the index for a year, but then it underperformed it for three to four years after that. I mean, look right like look look at the QQQ divided by the S&P and look at yearly candles when it launched. So when the QQQ launched, it outperformed the S&P for one year and then it underperformed it for three years straight. Now look at at at Bitcoin divided by the S&P. when when the ETF launched in 2024, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P, but it's underperformed it now two years in a row. The QQQ underperformed the S&P for three years in a row after that first initial year. So, from a and I've always said this, thematic ETFs often underperform the market, especially when they launch. There are times when they outperform, but when they launch for like a year, they might be okay for for six months or something, but for a few years after that, they tend to underperform. So to me, a thematic ETF launch and it's underperforming other things would be a point for the bears. We could just simply, you know, we like you, we could look at the chart and just say, look, most thematic ETFs when they launch underperform. Look at uh ARC G, right? This is uh the genomics ETF, right? Like it it when it launched, it underperformed it had a massive surge, but then it underperformed it for years after that. Now, maybe we're over here with with Bitcoin and you still get one more one more move. Look at ARX. This is a space one underperformed for a couple years before it started moving back up. So a lot of time and that's just if you look at ARCX against the S&P, right? Look, three years of underperformance and even going into a fourth year before it started to get back in business. So thematic ETFs are not like a bull case usually. They're actually a short-term bare case because by the time the thematic ETF launch launches and people buy it, who else who else is going to buy it, right? I mean that the last people to buy it were the people that were waiting for the ETFs and then once they bought, who else do you have? That's why they can underperform for a few years. So again, there's a lot of indicators that that you can look at. Now, if you look at this total cryptocurrency market cap and trend line chart, this would be a point for the bulls because I mean, it's pretty low. It doesn't mean it can't go lower. I mean, it it certainly could. Uh, but it is it is pretty low. So, I think if you were to look at this chart, you would say, look, it's it's basically near those lows. That's close enough. Good enough for me. I think that would be a point for the bulls pretty clearly, you know. Um, and to just kind of go through a few other charts, we have the stable coin supply ratio oscillator, right? So, this one and if you look at prior lows, uh, you can see like where it's occurred and you can see that Bitcoin already went to those levels, but it did it actually like last year. So, it's kind of it's kind of different. This one has been different this time, honestly, because it's actually gone up a lot rather than down. So, like you can't look at the chart and say, "All right, well, it collapsed and then the low occurred, right?" Like 2018 or in 2022 it collapsed to the lows and then the low occurred. This time it collapsed, but it was finding it was at the low in November and it's been trending up ever since. So, I don't really know who to give a point to in this case. It's like you could give a you could give a point to the bears and just say, "Well, look, once it once that goes down to the lows during a sell-off, then it's that's where you call it." But the bulls have a point, you know, like it it's been trending up and um you know, who's to say that who's to say that you have to have another another low? I I don't I I wouldn't look at this and necessarily come to a bearish conclusion. In fact, I would probably lean towards the bulls with it is my assessment. I like I would I would probably look at that chart and lean more towards the bull case rather than the bare case. Now, if you look at the risk metrics that we have, um you can see that all prior lows have occurred at lower risk levels than where we are right now. Right? The one that didn't was the 2019 low, but again, it still resolved downward. So, I think this one will be a point for the bears, right? And this is one of those things where we'll come back to this in a few months and we'll we'll have our answer. You know, did it did it resolve lower or or did it not? Um, if we were to look at the asymmetric quantile regression fan, what you'll notice is that it it's it is already gone into the golden pocket and there are dislocations where it goes further into the golden pocket. Right? So again, looking at this chart by itself would suggest that the low could be in. The way in which it's not is if you get a dislocation. Okay? So we're going to give it to the bulls because we cannot, you know, we cannot predicate our analysis on some future dislocation occurring even though it might say that this is what has to happen because we don't know when dislocations occur. What I mean by this is if you zoom in to prior lows, like occasionally you'll have a dislocation where it goes below the 1 percentile and stays there for a little bit. Uh 2020 was an example. 2015 another example, right, where we don't have the wick on here, but it went pretty far down. And so if you extend those dislocations out, all prior dislocations, uh, then Bitcoin could theoretically go to 45K and that would match the dislocation event in 2010. I don't know if we should include that one. I don't think there was a lot of volume back then. It could go to 53K and match the dislocation in August to 2015, which would be below the realized price. So for me, this is more so a point for the bulls, but a dislocation event could allow for that point to go right back to the bears. And what's interesting is there it's not impossible to figure like to to think about like what could cause it. And and a point for the bears is the fact that the last three midterm years, the S&P has had a correction in the fourth quarter that did not start until August or September. Right? Right? It starts in August, September, and then goes into the fourth quarter. And you can pretty clearly see it in starting in September 2014, starting in September of 2018, and then also starting in August of 2022, the S&P had either 10 to 20% drops in every prior midterm year that Bitcoin's been around. In 2010, um, it had a drop starting in April that it was about a 20% drop, but it found the low by July. Now, Bitcoin or sorry, the S&P has not had a 20% drop this year. It had a 10% drop earlier in the year. So, you might say, well, is that enough? But all these other prior midterm years, we also had a drop, right? In early 2018, we had a 10% drop at the early part of the year. In 2022, we had, you know, a drop at the early part of the year. And in 2014, at the very beginning of the year, there was, you know, a little drop there. So to me that would be a point for the bears because it's just seasonality that oftentimes there's a a a drop in the stock market that starts around August or September of the midterm year. And what would cause it? Well, if if the if you look back at rate hiking cycles and then rate cutting cycles and you overlap if you look at it with the with the S&P 500, go back to the internet buildout where they where they raised rates a lot. Okay? So if you go back to the 1990s, you can see they they raised rates for a while and then they cut rates and then they they took rates back up 25 basis points in March of 1997. And when they did that, it caused, you can see there was a 10% drop in stocks. So I would say, as simple as it is, maybe a 25 basis point rate hike would cause a 10% drop in stocks, in which case perhaps the low for Bitcoin is in if it's only a 10% drop. Now, the counterpoint is in 20 uh in 2014, it was only a 10% drop and Bitcoin put in new lows. But the bull case would just simply be that if it's only a 10% drop or or less, then Bitcoin does not have to put in a new low. But what if they have to raise rates twice? Do you get a a closer to a 20% drop and then the stock market goes back to this longer term trend line that it's been in for a long time? Like if you look at it here kind of if you if if the stock market were to to fall back to that trend line at whatever point it does it you know that's like a 20% drop. So that would be the bare case. It's just simply you have this seasonality lining up where the S&P often finds you know drops 10 to 20% in the back half of of midterm years. And you know is there a reason why Bitcoin interest might fade for a few weeks? It faded a few weeks before the SpaceX IPO, right? I mean, the SpaceX IPO was in June and Bitcoin sold off starting in May. We now have the anthropic IPO coming up probably in a month or two. And so, that would be a reason why, you know, you could see Bitcoin do something like that, right? Where it it just simply people lose interest and they flock over to the AI trade again. So, I think that would be more so a point for the bears to say, look, the bull market that we've seen anywhere has actually been driven by AI. And if you're going to have an anthropic IPO, that's probably going to take some attention away from the cryptoverse. Now, I'm not a huge fan of the next indicator. I call them the gap boys. Uh, and the reason I call them the gap boys is because if you look at Bitcoin CME futures in in 2019 I first started my channel uh there was a gap that formed at around what was it? Yeah, 9 $9,000 or so like in the 9,000s. You see that gap? And I remember, you know, like I was very bullish on Bitcoin back then. You go look at all my videos. I was non-stop bullish. Um, and I remember like Bitcoin came back down and it tested the bull market support band and people back then were saying, "All right, no, it's going to fill the gap at like 9600 and it never did." Now, maybe they get the last laugh in the end if if social interest just completely goes away and and and no one cares about Bitcoin, but that's not my base case. But we kind of just they became the gap boys, right? guys that that only focused on filling these gaps and then they got completely left behind by the bull market because they were waiting on the gap to fill. So, but but in this case, you can see that both rallies have filled gaps, right? So, if you were a bear, you could just simply say, all right, there was a gap here early in the year and then that first rally filled that gap and then we had this gap right here and then this rally filled that one. So that would be a case for the bears to just simply say that we filled the gaps and now we go lower. But on the way up, you tend to fill all prior gaps as well and then you just keep going up. So you can't really give it one way or another. You can't really say it's a case for the bears because in the case for the bulls, guess what? When the bull market starts, you also fill gaps, right? Like there was a gap here in 2022 and then we filled it, got a correction, but the low was already in. So gaps by themselves don't mean that the bare market has to continue. But I just wanted to put that on everyone's radar in case they were not familiar with it. So we also have, you know, some other charts as well. Uh the running one-year ROI. This one is one that tends to bottom uh below, you know, around like 2 to 3 with the exception of obviously like 2019, but you can see it hasn't gone down nearly as much as it normally does. I think this would be a case for the Bears, but the reason why it kind of goes to both the Bears and the Bulls is because the only other comparison we can make is to 2019 and even including the pandemic, it never actually fully reset down to 0 2. Okay, so because of that, we're going to give a point to both sides because I I get it. Like I get that you can say that okay, well the pandemic happened, but even with the pandemic, it didn't fully reset. So in this case, we got to give it to both sides, right? Right? We got to say, well, the Bears have a point. It normally resets all the way down here, but the Bulls have a point if you want to make the 2019 comparison. What's really fascinating that I saw this year is that for years and years and years, people people ridiculed the comparison I made to 2019, like the the the Bitcoin dominance bull market and the no rotation into altcoins, right? And and Bitcoin topping two months where quantitative tightening ended. For so many years, people ridiculed that view, right? They ridiculed it because they're like, "Well, no, this is not 2019." but because they didn't care about monetary policy. But what's interesting is after the bare market started and they finally acknowledged it, then they were more aware of, hey, let's look at the 2019 comparison. And it's not like there's no reason to look at it. I mean, look at the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin in 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026. At this point, in prior bare markets, Bitcoin was a lot lower in prior midterm years. So there's a reason to make that 2019 comparison. But the most hilarious thing is that the bullcase that people talk about now, that's what I was pointing out like 2 to 3 years ago as to when that sort of the QT phase ended. So it's interesting because the bullcase is is what I was trying to argue back then. But the reason why I I've been a little bit more sort of on the bearish side is just I was thinking that because the bull lasted longer that the digestion phase after the non after the apathetic top would also last a little bit longer. But believe me, I would understand better than anyone else the 2019 comparison because I spent three years talking about it. So I I get it, right? Like I I get that view completely. I completely understand that view and you do not have to convince me of it. Okay? I I get it through and through and this is what I was arguing for so many years. It's just now where the disagreement is is how long does the digestion phase after the apathetic top occur. The bulls will say it just is the same length as the as the 2019 move. But those are the same people that would have never believed it in the first place. And that's the that was the hardest thing about this year is that every time that Bitcoin has rallied off a low, whether it was the low at at, you know, 80K or the ones at 60, the people that dunk on me the most are the people that told you you would never even see these prices, right? The the ones that were screaming for 300,000 last year are mocking anyone who is bearish this year because Bitcoin's at 78,000. To me, that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? Because even if you were to capitulate now and just go buy Bitcoin, you're still buying it well below where they were saying it was going to 300K. So I think the strategy for Bitcoin that has worked is just to start buying in the second half of the midterm year. But a lot of people don't like that because I'll still sort of pontificate on a potential future low based on some of the bearish indicators. So anytime there's a rally, my name gets dragged through the mud. I don't understand why, right? I really don't get it. But that's what happens is anytime there's a rally, any anyone who says anything bearish gets completely destroyed on social media. And it happened in in December and it happened in in fe in March and April and May. And it's also happened since July, every single one. But I would say, look, we said there would be a low in February and we said there would be a low in the summer. This is what we said. And the people that give me such a hard time are the ones who were bulling the entire way down. So I would encourage you to to be objective, right? to say, you know, is buying Bitcoin at 78K, was it a bad move if you sold it at 120 to then buy it back at 78 if you think the bulls have a point and the low is in? Absolutely not. Right. It would be as if, right? Let's let's go to a different chart. It would be like saying you couldn't buy Bitcoin at 22K in 2023 because it was already 30% off the lows. or you couldn't have bought Bitcoin in at $5,000 in 2019 because it was already 30% off the lows. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? Like I mean just because if you if you didn't buy the low, that doesn't mean you have to miss out on the entire bull market. That's that's silly, right? That doesn't make any sense. But the bulls that were bullish the entire way down will convince you that if you didn't buy at the low, then you miss out on the on the on the next three-year bull market. you have to miss out on it because you didn't buy the low. Even though they were fully deployed at the top, doesn't matter, right? They'll pretend like they just went all in at the low. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense, right? If the low is in and you get convinced by enough bullish indicators, you don't have to like sit out of a multi-year bull market, you could just buy, right? And what I've said is just DCAing in the second half of the midterm year below.3 risk. So for me that meant I started buying in early July and that was it because that was the only time that Bitcoin was um in the second half of the midterm year and below the.3ish level was in early July. And coincidentally after that low that was good enough for me to at least start buying. We've had a rally. Okay. So it is what it is. Now if you look at at the 50we moving average this is pretty clear clear indicator. every time Bitcoin has gotten above the 50week moving average on let's say three weekly closes the the the bull market's over. Now the the only normally it's just one weekly close but the reason we have to be careful is in 2022 we had two weekly closes and and it still fell below it. So, what I would say to kind of clean this up a little bit is to say if you have a weekly close above it where it significantly gets above it, not like 2022, but where you have like a a 20% move above it, the the low has always been in right at that point. You can see that was the case in 2019. It was the case in 2023 and and you know, we'll see if it's the case once again, but as of right now, we haven't really had that move. And if we do, then more people will turn into bulls. For now, I think it's still a it still sides with the bears just simply because we haven't really had that definitive move on on uh I mean on on Coinbase, the 50we moving average was at 80,343 last week and we closed $4 below it. Okay. If you look at at the index that we normally use, the 50week moving average was last week was at um let's see, it was at 80,361 and we closed at 80,360 like not even a dollar like like 80,360 and 60. So 41 cents below the 50 moving average. So technically speaking on a lot of the exchanges we closed below it. Now, on some we closed above it, but until you get the follow through where you really get through it, it's going to be a point for the bears, right? Like, it has to be because we just we simply haven't gone through it yet. I think I accidentally drew um two lines on on the bare case kind of like side by side. You see that? See like one and two. So, let me let me clean that up a little bit. So, you got one, two, three, and then we're going to add another one for the four for the 50we moving average. Now, some people have said that the 200 day. Now, what's interesting is I I I pointed this out long long ago. Um, but there are times where Bitcoin has gotten above the 200 day moving average and the low was not in. Sometimes it is, but like if you look at the 200 day moving average in uh uh 2014, we got above the 200 day moving average and we still went below it. And then in 2015, we got well above the 200 day moving average and we still came back down. So I I I don't think the 200 day holds as much weight, but certainly last cycle it did. Right. Last cycle once we got through the 200 day, the low was in. And and so we're going to give this point to both the bulls and the bears. Um well, actually, no, we're just going to give it to the bulls. We're just going to give it to the bulls because while you could give it to the bears, getting to the 200 day moving average is a bullish thing. even though there have been times where it resolved to the downside. I think objectively you would you would probably give that to the bears over the bulls right now. Again, there's plenty of other charts that I could look at and I could try to think of some very very quickly. Um, but the point is, I mean, here's the we could look at the PI cycle bottom indicator. You can see that it's marked the last several lows. Has not happened yet, but guess what? It also didn't happen in 2019 um 2020 as well. From a four-year cycle perspective, it hasn't triggered. I don't know who to give it to because it also didn't trigger even with the pandemic low. So, why don't we just give it to both, right? We give it to the bulls because they can point to 2019 even with the pandemic. I'm going give it to the Bears because they can just say, "Hey, doesn't matter. It still always happened in the midterm year or shortly after the midterm year was over." it's always happened regardless at the end of the midterm year or at the very beginning of of the next year. So that one would go in that case, you know, to the Bears. Um, now you have you have other things like, you know, MACD, golden cross, death cross. By the way, I believe we just had a golden cross, did we not? Yeah. So, Bitcoin just had a golden cross here. And there is a correction now in the markets. But remember, often times there's a correction after a golden cross, right? In 2023, you can see that we had a golden cross and there was a correction after it. And Bitcoin still had another rally before it came down even more. In 2020, sorry, in 2019, there was a correction after the golden cross. We can have golden crosses, have corrections, but things are still fine. Now, are there times where you had a golden cross where the market still resolved lower? Yes. Right. Look at 2014. There was a golden cross in July of 2014 and then Bitcoin still went down. There was a golden cross in July of 2015 and then Bitcoin was setting new lows a month later. So I would say that it favors the bulls over the bears, right? I would say that it favors the bulls over the bears, but the bears could point to the fact that there have been golden crosses that eventually led to new lows as well. But still, objectively, I think it would have to go towards the bulls. And they would just simply say that, look, yes, we have a golden cross, but most golden crosses tend to lead to short-term corrections in the market and and hopefully it just ends up being a higher low rather than a lower low. Now, one case for the bears is the dollar, right? So, if you were to go look at um presidential uh presidential return paths, right? So, how the dollar has performed under various presidents. Um, one of the things I've I've pointed this out a lot is if you look at the the dollar, the Dixie, and you look at Trump's second term compared to his first one, you know, there was also a correction around this time by the dollar and then it had one more push up into the end of the year. Now, the reason why that could occur again is because we're likely going to have a rate hike and that will likely make the dollar stronger. So it will be it will begrudgingly go higher and if it does that would be a headwind for risk assets, right? If it were to if it were to do something like that. So I think you you look at the dollar, you look at at a potential rate hike, that would likely be a point for the bears. Okay. And and what's really interesting is if you look at Bitcoin, if you look at Bitcoin's return paths and you say compared this cycle to with Biden, I mean Bitcoin is a little higher now than it was then. Did go a little bit lower later on and then we were back in business. Under Trump's first term, the low occurred a little bit later in the year and under Obama's first or his second term, it occurred a little bit later in the year. So I think that would more so be a point for the Bears than the Bulls in terms of in terms of timing. The issue though with the timing stuff is it's all kind of related. Whether you measure it from the inauguration or you measure it from, you know, the having or the year to date ROI, like the timing all kind of ends up being similar. So I don't want to give too many points for essentially the same thing if that makes sense. All right. And then are there any other things that I want to mention? Um, we could look at 90day coin days destroyed and see that it's starting to trend up here and um, you know, I mean, I I I would I would look at this and say this is more so a point for the bulls, right? Because of of where it's bottomed and and where it's heading higher. So, that would be a point for the bulls. Now, what would be a point for I think the bears is whale activity. So, if you were to go look at the whale watching dashboard and you were to look at the whale activity score, it's it has gone up some, right? But it's still relatively low. And if you were to look at this dashboard at actual major market cycle bottoms, it was spiking all the way up to like 08.9 before Bitcoin had a major breakout. So, you can see in 2022 there was a lot of whale activity. In 2018, at the actual lows, there was a lot of whale activity. it was at 76 and in 2014 there was a lot of whale activity in early 2015 7.77 but this time at these lows it only went up to 0.25 25. So there has not been I know there's I know that sort of the general assessment is that whales have been accumulating but in terms of this whale activity score which maps out tons of different things. You can see everything well transactions, exchange activity, exchange inflows and whale holder positioning, there hasn't been as much whale activity at the July low as there was at actual prior market cycle bottoms. In fact, if you were to look at the amount of activity at the July low, it's more rem, but it looks more like what happened in 2018 where you would just get these spikes off the low and and then it started to go up a little bit, but until you actually had that final capitulation, it wasn't reaching those much higher levels. And look at the summer of 2022, right? If you look at the summer of 2022, there was some spikes, but it didn't go all the way up to the top. And this one barely moved. So there's not been there has not been a lot of, you know, whale positioning um at the at the lows, at least if you take into account all of these things. There's another indicator. I don't really use this one that much. I call I I created it like 5 years ago. I just called it the cow corridor. Basically, you can see that major lows occur when it hits the lower band, right? You can see it in 2018 and the pandemic low um a little bit lower uh in in the summer, but then it sort of found a low shortly thereafter. Uh if you look at this, right, I think you would argue it's more more so a case for the bulls, right? Just looking at that by itself. So that would be a case for the bulls. All right, that takes care of a lot of things. Um, I think those are the main things that I wanted to to kind of talk about. Now, if we take the price risk and the onchain risk and the social risk and combine it into a single summary risk metric that accounts for absolutely all of that stuff, right, everything. uh then what you'll see is that it's a little lower than where it was in 2022, but it's not as low as where it was at prior market cycle bottoms. But if you think of the 2022 bull market as sort of akin to um you know like it was during a QT phase, then we go into the QE phase, it would make sense that we haven't gone down to the lows. If you ignore social interest, we did go to the lows in 2022. But even in in ignoring social interest, we have not gone all the way there in 2026, but we did go to the level that it went to in the pandemic. So, I'm going to give this to the bulls and the bears. The bears could simply say, look, at some point we're likely going to go below 0.1 or to 0.1, which is where we went last cycle. But the bulls could say, "All right, but in 2019, um, you can see that we didn't, you know, we didn't quite we didn't go all the way down, right?" Well, I guess summary risk went to 0.148 back then. Yeah, like48. And this time, you can see it's already been around around that same level. So, I think that will go to both the bulls and the bears because there's an argument to be made either way. But I think that's going to sort of wrap it up here. I mean, we've covered a lot. The the important thing is if you're a bull, there's indicators that have your back. If you're a bear, there's indicators that have your back. If you're an investor, you should know the bull case and the bear case so that if the bull case starts confirming with weekly closes above the 50we moving average, you're not stuck relying on indicators that have failed. But if you're a bull and the bull case starts to fail and we start heading back down into Q4, you're not sitting there thinking that Bitcoin is dead when it's doing the same thing it's always done. I would say don't get overly attached to one narrative. Try to be flexible. Right? For me, DCAing throughout the second half of the midterm year is the successful strategy. Right? That is the successful strategy. Not trying to time the bottom. This is an academic exercise for those that want to talk about the academic exercise. This is not, hey, wait until the low occurs and then go all in. Because the reality is is people won't even do that. Even if people wait, they won't even do that. Think about how many people would have didn't buy in early in mid 2022 because they were going to buy in Q4 and then when Q4 happened, FTX was collapsing and maybe they just didn't have the chance to buy. What if that was the exchange they were using, right? I mean, like the point is is you can't know. You have to come up with a strategy and stick to it. and I just dynamically DCA according to the risk metric. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'm going to be out of town for, you know, the next almost couple of weeks or so. Uh, more like 10, 11 days. And so, I'm not sure how many more videos I'm going to put out. I might pre-record some videos, but I don't even know, right? Like, I don't know. I feel like the market is is kind of all over the place and I'm not really sure how to pre-record videos for a week and a half when, you know, Bitcoin in a week could be at 85K or it could be at 73K, you know, and and I don't know how useful a video would be. Maybe I'll make some videos while I'm out of town. I'm going to New Zealand. Um, but it's too hard to know. Like, so you might see a couple more videos come your way, but I would say like this is the video I wanted to put out before I went out of town so that you guys could have an understanding of what is the market saying, what is the market doing? And hopefully you can take this and use it to better form your own opinions. That is my objective with this video. Hopefully hopefully you guys enjoyed it. Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, check out ITC Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Links in the description below. Um, and I I do do I I do usually two to three videos a week over there. Um, at least when I'm when I'm not traveling, but I I try to be a little bit more active there. Thank you guys for tuning in. I'll see you next time. Bye.