Bitcoin - Dip or Lockout Rally ??

Warning, this video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and today I've got a few things that are kind of strange which I wanted to show you. I don't know about you guys, but I've been doing this so long whenever I pull up any of these charts, I can probably do this with nearly all of them, right? There are pockets on the chart or areas on the chart where I can remember certain things. It's almost like an old journal or an old friend. And like I said, I can do this with practically any chart that I've been trading over the years. For example, I can point to this and say, "Oh, this was the first Bitcoin spot ETF. This was the first ProShares leverage short ETF that came out. This was also FTX. Somewhere in here was 3AC and Voyager and that historic moment on the Upon podcast where they had Docoin and everyone else on there and jokes about going to jail and jail not being that bad. This was C19. This was the impenetrable 6K floor. the launch of the first futures contracts, Elon Musk on SNL. Like, you can kind of do this, I don't know, at least I can throughout a bunch of different charts at a bunch of different times. And you may have completely different memories of things that are going on there. Certainly remember in this kind of neighborhood, it was like this thing's never going to stop. It's going straight to a million. I can remember that. I can remember thinking, "Oh no, what did I do here?" In fact, this is the only dip in the entire time I've been in Bitcoin that I was genuinely concerned about. I remember in this neighborhood here it was it's malpractice to be bearish above 25K. The point I'm trying to make is I think I will always remember this pocket right here on the chart as the apology tour. Never in all of my years have I seen anything so crazy as what's going on here. Not only have you got people demanding apologies for invalidated ideas, which if you really think about how absurd this is, okay, traders are right and wrong 50% of the time on average. Probably a really good highle trader with a high hit rate is probably closer to 60% right and 40% wrong, which is still basically 50/50. So everything is a coin flip, right? Imagine if I flipped a coin and then, you know, it landed on heads and I'd called heads and I started jumping up and down and clowning on people for getting that right. Like everyone would think that was absurd, right? And you know, if I called heads and it was tails, the last thing you'd expect from me is to say, "Ah, you know what? I owe you guys an apology." Anyway, I guess what I'm trying to say is I've been doing this a long time, and never have I ever seen anything remotely close to what's going on here. This is very unusual times. This space went from super toxic to I owe you guys an apology for an idea. There's really nothing like this space. This is the wildest show on earth. And it wasn't just Ben that was apologizing. There was all sorts of people copying Ben, essentially jumping on the bandwagon, saying sorry and all this kind of thing. And MM Crypto absolutely nails it. So I want to play you this one minute clip and then we'll head into hunting for a viable dip in the Bitcoin chart and this very strange chart pattern that I've never seen before. And I've even got some learning to go and study, which is nice cuz been a while since I found something completely brand new to me. >> Morning, Crypto Twitter. I'm sitting here in the morning with my coffee and then looking at Twitter, they see how many people are blaming Benjamin Cohen for Cohen for being wrong this one time about the bottom and then they are saying that they are missing out on gains because of his prediction. This is not how it goes. Number one, you need to own your own decisions, right? Number two, if he says jump from a bridge, are you jumping? Probably not, right? So why is you missing out on gains primarily his fault? just getting inspired by his content, then he was right many times. If you make profits because of his correct predictions, are you going out there and talking about your profits, giving him 100% of the credits for your profits? Probably you're going to tap yourself on the shoulder also. So, you just see no matter how you turn it, you cannot blame him for being wrong, especially that he is right so many times before. Just grow up, own your decisions, guys. Come on. It's such a weird and wild space this place. Honestly, it really is. And as I said, I do think I will remember this little chunk of the chart as the apology tour going forward. I've never seen anything remotely close to it before. As I was showing yesterday, I've been saying that I'm patiently going to wait for the first good dip and then buy that dip as hard as possible. I was saying that something like this to me made sense that we would get this kind of sweep of the lows, nice big pull back into a weekly cycle low and off we go. Whether it's just my algo or not, or whether a bunch of people would also very much welcome this dip, I could find practically no other ideas on Twitter yesterday. In many shapes and sizes, this now seems to be the internet's most favorite fractal. The only other ideas I could find out here were that we might come all the way down and sweep the lows. Now, this would be the most insane situation, wouldn't it? Because this would have us having to put the yellow squiggle that we just invalidated back on the table. This would be fouryear cycle still in control. And remember what I was saying just now about areas on the chart where you associate stories or memories or whatever. If this were to happen, we would have to modify this story slightly. We would have to remember this as the apology tour. The moment where all the bears flipped bullish, okay, only for this whole thing to be a trap. And then when we get down here, the four-year cycers end up being correct. Right? This whole thing would be the strangest possible scenario. This would be the absolute max pain scenario because all those people that bought these lows and clowned on all the bears, okay, they got vindicated, forcing all the four-ear cycle guys to say, "Okay." Or all the bears to say, "Okay, the low's probably in. We got a higher high close. Time to party." Only for then absolutely everyone in the market to have their pants pulled down. And you can imagine down here it would all be back to #ben Cohen was right, you know. H I hope for the comedy factor. I hope this is what plays out. Obviously, it makes no odds to us, right? If this happens, fine. Every dip is for buying. Probably end up with an average down here. If this happens, okay, then it's the same thing, right? In that timing window, there'll be a pullback. All dips are for buying. And if we get somewhere halfway between the two, like this. And then again, all dips are for buying in the same timing window. So, it really doesn't make any difference, right? It doesn't make a scrap of difference. We're buying the next weekly cycle low. We were always buying the next weekly cycle low. It was just hoping that it would be the lowest low on the chart. If it happens to be a higher low or a double bottom, so be it. Okay. But it really makes no odds. Plans to buy the weekly cycle low and hopefully the fouryear cycle low late this year. So it doesn't impact us. In fact, I would be one of those people, wouldn't I, that has to put the yellow squiggle back on the table somewhere around here on the failed daily cycle and then it would just be too perfect. It would be too perfect because think about how bad sentiment would be into the lows and all of that jazz. But as I was saying yesterday, I don't really want to operate from this perspective at the moment because clinging on to a setup like this after we've got a change in behavior, a change in structure, and a highly probable early fouryear cycle low in here is a recipe for disaster in my experience. Right? You have to have strong opinions weekly held. Invalidations exist for a reason. And that reason is once they get triggered, it's time to flip the other way. And if you don't, if you just say, "No, no, no, I'm going to be right." Or, "No, no, no, Ben Cohen's going to be right eventually." If you're not willing to pivot, then when you get a strong uptrend, this is how you find yourself staying bearish and staying sidelined with no exposure all the way until new highs occur. And then you go to yourself, well, I can't buy it now, right? No way am I buying 126k for Bitcoin. And I mean, worst case scenario, if this happens, you know, you can just play an asset that is correlated to Bitcoin but lagging, right? Or an asset that is showing the same sort of structure but hasn't moved up strongly yet. You could play higher beas that will give you bigger pullbacks, right? So if this is what happens for Bitcoin squiggle, you think the higher beta pulls back harder here, harder here, harder here. There's not really any such thing as missing the move. You can always just find something else to trade. You can always find a higher beta. You can always just buy dips in uptrends. But you do have to be willing to pivot if you want to be able to catch the trend. So if this happens, okay, needless to say, I will be laughing all the way to the bank. If this happens, needless to say, we will find the four-year low on time as expected and happy days. Doesn't change anything. Okay, but to be extremely clear, I want to be bullish here. I want to be bullish. I want to say all dips are for buying and all dips are for buying regardless of whether they're lower or higher. I did find this yesterday. Some people were tagging me in this and I wanted to flag it just because I hadn't really thought about it. Bitcoin made a higher high recently. As we all know, right here, this high is above this high. But Bitcoin also made a higher high in 2022 and then it went down to 16K right here. Notice this. Okay, a bunch of highs, higher high and then it turned out to be a trap before we went all the way down from about 50k to about 16k. So traps exist. Traps occasionally are observed like this. But let's be honest about this. There's a big difference between here on this chart where we were outside even the plus or minus one weekly cycle tolerance for a 4ear cycle low versus today where this low is inside the tolerance window for a 4year cycle. Right? The 4year cycle should have occurred around late December or early Q1 of next year and that has a tolerance of plus or minus one weekly cycle. So this low is inside the tolerance window, right? It's inside the timing window. All of this was far outside. That would be equivalent on this chart to saying somewhere back here, oh, we've got a higher high. It's like, yeah, we do, but we're miles away from even the inside of the window, let alone the middle of the window. So, not really comparable, but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Okay, we could definitely get something like this play out from here. And then, as per all the things I was just laughing at a minute ago, this space once again would become the greatest show on earth. We would at least be entertained if nothing else. But again, to be clear, I don't really want to be bearish here. I want to be looking for a higher, low, pullback, show us a strength, and then start to assume bull markets are coming. And if daily cycle fails, and left translates, then it's going to be super easy for us to go right back to the original yellow squiggle hunting for something like this. Now, these charts are about to get even weirder. I saw this, right? The great meal of George Bayer, fish, bird, neck, all of this stuff. I was like, what is this? Right? I didn't even Someone showed me this, Chris here, and I was like, is this thing AI? It's probably AI. I've got to go and verify this. But indeed, I did verify it and it's true. This is the pattern. Okay, the general pattern. I think you have soup to start and then fish. It's like the most crackhead ta ever. A white wine or something, right? And then you work your way up to champagne, cheese before then the whole thing flops. If you want to go and study this, I'm about to today. This is going to be my lunchtime reading. Okay. The egg of Columbus, hidden movements, hidden stocks and commodity markets. And I just want to scroll down. There's only about 19 pages or something. And indeed this pattern is real, okay? Is absolutely real. It was a real reported phenomenon. You get this weird fish and bird and whatever else, whatever else is going on. And all the way down the bottom, I'll read you the very last paragraph here. As far as a general rule for buying and selling is concerned, we have used weakness to buy. Definitely a synchronicity on this channel since I've been saying all dips are for buying and strength to sell whilst the direction is the same. For example, use weakness in the tongue formation to buy and not when the fish is already in the making. During the resting between the fish and the bird, you can buy again for the bird. When the bird is completed, you can buy for the neck, which is sometimes long, sometimes short. If the neck is short, then you make less profit. If the neck is long, profits will pile up and when almonds appear on the top short quickly until full discharge has occurred and know that there are several discharges in succession hanging the tongue will come thereafter. But this is what's the most interesting part of all of this. This actually maps extremely well to the current move in this stock market. This chart here is the S&P 500. This is the 2022 low. And look at this. We've got this weird fish. We've got the the bird, the neck. Okay, all that's really left is this final blowoff top moment and then it may well be time to have that who great correction. So, don't get me wrong, this is absolutely crackhead TA and for once it's not me that's the crackhead in this situation, but at least we all got something nice to read. So if you want to go and read this, just search the EG of Columbus by George Bayer into Google. It'll come straight up. You can go and read it. And every day is a school day. Always the student of the market. It's never the master. Meanwhile, the DXE continues to push. This is a weekly time frame. If we go to a daily, we can see the indicator pick this in real time. And we're continuing to push. So all of that makes a lot of sense, right? Something that doesn't make a lot of sense is the US 10year, but we are due to top for a weekly cycle low any day now. as you can see denoted by this and then the question is do we form a higher low and bust through the top and invalidate this whole call or do we finally catch up this yellow squiggle line and start to move towards downside I would say based on the cycles alone we're going to see these things move down and the reason I say that is because we are ready to confirm probably this week the swing portion of a new weekly cycle in TLT if I zoom in here a little bit so we can see what's going on look at this we have got the the making of the swing low pattern if we can just push a little bit higher maybe to about 82. That swing low will be breaking the trend line and ready to cross bullish on the weekly time frame here. And then that's it. That should be the low for TLT. That should be the 7 and 1/2 year cycle done. And we should have at least a couple of months here of big upside relief even if it's going to then left trans and fail. And I don't think it is. I think a big sustained rally is coming here. And I think this is super contrarian. And since that's what the cycles suggest, it also therefore says that this is probably the top in the 10ear. Time will tell about that. I wonder if we can get any clues from the 2-year. No, not really. But still lower highs so far. So, we'll see. With that said, of course, we have got a range break here. SMG on a 10K handle now. Happy days. Okay. So, long-term account and JISA will be profiting from this. Managed to sell here and buy back here. So, missed this bit in the middle, but whatever cuz obviously when we sold here, that was from down here and down here. So, with a bit of luck, we get another one of these big pushes to the upside. Dump that and then happy days. SEC showing us what I believe is coming for the semiconductors. Okay, so we'll see if we can keep getting that. I think SMH is starting to push nicely now as well. I mean, it's looking good if you ask me. Mags still busting through the top of this big base, isn't it? And the reason that's so important to us on this channel is because if the semis and the mags are going to continue to push, then that should drag the US major indices higher into this crazy blowoff top fractal, which would be extremely right translated and then we'll come slamming down into the fourear low. Very similarly to what we did during COVID, right? We're extremely right translated. Tpped month 48, which is where we should have been bottoming and then slammed down into that four-year low. And I've been saying it feels a lot like we're doing that again. Notice the confluence with this. Okay, it does seem like, doesn't it? We're just absent of that final move towards cheese or crackers or almonds or champagne or whatever it is that's up there. And then it will be time to see this correction. Got to think if this happens, Bitcoin may suffer. Dare I say, this thing may all be a trap and then down into the fourear low. It's entirely possible, right? I'm just I'm just throwing this out there because it's important to entertain all possible outcomes. But in at least a short to medium term, it should be a case that we can catch this move via whatever's going on here. We've been playing this in the level three member section via the NASDAQ, right? By the US 100. So, two positions stacked, ready to go. Let's see what can happen. Oil's still throwing that trap, isn't it? So, you know, oil's one of those ones that people have been very loud in my comment section about, which is weird cuz I'm not even trading it. I just basically said there's the top left translated and failed weekly cycles coming and then I expect it to do something approximating this yellow fractal. That's all I said, right? I didn't really care. I didn't really make a big deal of it. I didn't I don't think I really like said anything other than hummus these nuts, which I guess is a little inflammatory with self-reflection. And I also said that my auntie and mechanic were bullish oil and people were like, "Oh yeah, whatever." I don't know. People are extremely loud about this. People love to be like, "Hey, camel, I love your work, but you're wrong about oil." I I see that almost every day, multiple times. But to me, this just looks like it's going to do something approximating this yellow squiggle. Okay, so that is the call that we will by the end of the year be somewhere down here. No matter what happens in the meantime, okay, alltime high or shut your mouth, okay? I don't I don't care if it's if it's at new highs above this, then you can come at me, okay? Then I'm wrong on this call. But if we are below this, okay, then just at least wait until we get down here and then we'll see how far wrong people are or whatever. Okay, but new highs or quiet down. I don't care whether people think this is going to 200 or 300 or whatever. Okay, just either it's down here or the high is broken. Everything in the middle, okay, is just leave me alone. We'll talk about it later. And then for the precious metals, I see a lot of nervousness out there, but daily cycle lows in and holding and confirmed. So, we're just absent of that little push from here. Same for silver. Should be about ready to start pushing higher. And I was looking at some of the miners with a slice crew yesterday. Notice how they have completed their consolidation and are starting to break out. So long as today's candle is the retest and then resumption occurs thereafter, then I believe this is a signal. It's a subtle tell, a hint, whatever you want to call it from the market. You can see it here. This is the juniors. Now, you know, we're breaking out here. We're going to resume the next leg up. I think this whole thing is one and two. So then three, four, and five should come. And this is miners leading. Okay. Why are the miners leading? Because the institutions know they're about to bid gold and silver higher. At least that's my interpretation. Same for CJ, right? We added this somewhere down here in the Jiser, I think, and certainly the longerterm account. And then again, look what's happening, right? These things are getting ready to break out, retest, and resume in the coming days. So, if they're going to start to push higher, it would only make sense to me that gold and silver are also about to start to push higher. So, then all that leaves is Bitcoin, right? We basically have two ideas here. One is that that's an early four-year cycle. All the trolls and amateurs were correct buying the bottom for once and now we're off to a new bull market. All dips are for buying. Still looking to buy a weekly cycle low sometime towards the end of the year and then it should be time to see whether or not we can be extraordinarily bullish here and rip all the way up to kind of half a million dollars per coin. Okay, so that's plan A. Plan A is we're in a new bull market. All dips are a buy in and it's about to get extremely bullish extremely quickly here. Plan B is that this whole thing is a huge head fake. Okay. And if so, then at the upcoming daily cycle low, we'll get left, trans, and failure. As soon as we get that, we'll be like, whoa, cycles in control. Everything else is narrative. We'll put this yellow squiggle back on the table. Okay, we'll probably actually, in fact, abandon these Elliot wave counts altogether. And I'll just put this thing back here. There it is. And then it will just be like, yeah, okay, well, little deviation had to invalidate it, but then we came back down and caught it up and cycles in control. Whatever. Okay, but like I've said a million times, I don't want to entertain that now. I want to be bullish. If that were to happen, we'd deal with it as it came. We would laugh at it, of course, because it would be hilarious. Be the most entertaining thing in the world. In either case, it doesn't matter cuz we're either going to buy a load down here, okay? Or the same sort of window higher up. Makes no odds to me. And that's why I keep saying all dips are for buying. Let's grab this and put this back here cuz I think this is the count we've got to run with at the moment. So, I'm saying I'm bullish, we're bullish, let's all have a party. Unless of course the egg of Columbus and the most crackhead TA in the world is about to ruin everyone's day, but we'll deal with that as it comes. Okay, no reason to worry about it right now. I'm your boy Camel. I hope you're doing well. Click here in about 10 seconds if you want to level up your edge and I'll see you soon. Until then, all the best. Cheers. Bye. >> Finance with his contrarian. No fear, no shame. sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the market key ride.