Bitcoin: Does Election Day Matter? 71% Green Within 30 Days

The question of the day is, do elections in the US actually influence Bitcoin? Does it actually matter? Can Bitcoin remain above the October low? If it can remain above the October low, pretty much always green, or at least 90% of the time, it is green. However, if we do see Bitcoin trade lower than October's low at any point during November, well, guess what? It's always been red. The month has always been red from there. And then of course an even more important statistics of what we're going over for the month of November that has a very strong predictive capability if November is going to be green and it is actually among the most simplest of simple things that we could possibly discuss. So let's waste no more time and get into it right now. Of course today is the midterms for us and uh I guess we'll see what happens with that. We'll look at maybe a little bit of cowi later. But as far as what Bitcoin typically does, if we look at the totality of all US elections, and we're talking about presidential elections and also midterms as well, uh because realistically, we just don't have that many iterations. If we actually just look at midterms or presidential elections, I mean, it's very very very very minimal for the people who are absolutely [ __ ] obsessed with that stuff. I cannot understand it. But on a day like today, we might as well go over it. And funnily enough, uh the day of elections, again, if we're looking at all elections in the US, uh 86% of the time it is a green day. Now it is very very you know minimal returns here with a median return of 1 spot 4%. But hey you know that's better than nothing of course. And if we um you know if we fast forward out a little bit more than that then we actually do lose you know the highly probable uh green direction with only 57% of them closing green within about 5 days after elections. But actually the further that we go out from there the more and more like it is to be green. In fact, 10, 20, and 30 days out, all have a 71% green probability, at least historically speaking, with only seven iterations. I want to be very directly clear about that because one of the things that really does, you know, uh, grind my gears, is when people make a big [ __ ] deal about, you know, midterms or presidential election, it's like, oh, we have three examples. [ __ ] super useful data, sir. Anyways, as far as that goes, yes, at least that's what it does show. So, there is that. I I I actually do really want to um uh hunker down on just presidential elections, even though obviously this one is not presidential election. It is midterms. Uh but just for whatever reason, if you fast forward one day out, 10 days out, 20 days out, and 30 days out, 100% of the time is actually has been green from that period, just as a weird sort of stat uh for what we have right there. But again, combining all elections, both midterms and presidential ones, the day of 86% of the time it is green. Basically, one of seven times it has not been green. So yes, very high probability to be green today. Minimal returns, one spot. 4% audited on to the current open of the of the day would put Bitcoin whereable. That would put Bitcoin uh a little bit higher than where it's at right now. Actually, pretty much around the high of the day. In fact, uh 78,000 bucks nearly. Again, that was one spot 4% and I'm looking at 1 spot 4% right here at about 77,900, which is more or less precisely where that red 5 EMA is on the daily time frame right here. Now, that is obviously, you know, not a bad thing, but really we want to see Bitcoin reclaim that on a daily closing basis to get a little more hopeium with looking for this rally to continue on. And well, I guess this would be would it be considered a bear trap? Technically, no, it's not a bear trap. You'd really want to see the previous low being taken out for it to be considered a real, you know, traditional bear trap. But hey, that would probably be a good indication that Bitcoin is going to, you know, steady the boat over here and try for the next major low in this evolving uptrend. Of course, I want to state my major line in the sand, big [ __ ] line in the sand, which is of course that last trading higher low from September at 75,000 bucks. As long as Bitcoin's above there, I still do maintain a an optimistic bullish buys for the long term. Obviously, short term, we have been bearish for a little bit of time since we started to get these corrective setups. These started to fire off in about middle of October and have carried us on further and farther downwards. But the higher term time frame setups still do uh exist and they still do suggest to the upside. So, I'm unwilling to relent on my bullish bias until that is taken out. But here's the thing. There's a much more important statistic um than what we're looking at right here. Although, hey, you know, that ain't bad. Uh especially if you know the 10, 20, and 30 days stats start to play out because 70 71% of the time green and you know, bigger returns. Uh we're talking about double digit, you know, like 20% returns uh as a meeting right there. Um, but if we want to go out a little bit further and do something that honestly I think is a lot more important and probably a lot more reliable and relatable, it would be looking at the month of October and November together. And there is a very simple setup right here that has a very strong predictive capability to guess to guess to uh to predict if Bitcoin is going to be green throughout the month of November. And it is so [ __ ] simple. It is quite literally this. Can Bitcoin remain above the October low? If it can remain above the October low, pretty much always green, or at least 90% of the time, it is green. However, if we do see Bitcoin trade lower than October's low at any point during November, well, guess what? It's always been red. The month has always been red from there. And I do think that Bitcoin honestly can't really afford a red month here if it is going to continue on with this rally. So, I think it's a extremely important pivot. And of course, we have seen Bitcoin already come down close to October's low, but did not break October's low, but it got damn close to it. If we're looking at uh the index right here, I just want to give you an idea of what the numbers are. October's low was 76,195. And of course, what do we have the low for November thus far? Well, it was 76,290. So, very very very very close. It was actually this morning. This morning is the low. So, you know, look, if Bitcoin does trade below basically last Friday's low, yeah, there fiscally is very likely going to be a big problem for the blue laws here, and that would probably be good enough for me to uh to give up on any sort of long-term bullish biases until Bitcoin plays in a much deeper correction. Now, my long-term view is that Bitcoin still very likely does have the macro low in, but if it loses that low, it very, you know, it certainly does open up the possibility for Bitcoin to come down to about 65 to 66,000 bucks. uh which is a big move obviously you know from 75 you know down another to 10,000 bucks that's what like close to a I don't know 15 to 17%ish move yeah not not not necessarily great and obviously that would start to turn around the timing of a lot of uh this market ultimately I'd be looking for I I I really wouldn't be entertaining any sort of like you know big bullish biases for like actual immediate upside until Jesus at least like Q1 of 2027 probably near the end of Q1 if you know at best but for right now Bitcoin's still above it by [ __ ] hair of a All sack and ultimately uh there are a few compelling things here as well. So let's go through them right now. Daily time frame does have developing bullish divergence right here. It's a very small amount but yes it is indeed putting in a higher low on the daily RSI and we already have a closure on a new low for the daily time frame right here that is going to be further enhanced by the 12-hour time frame which is also showing regular bullish evidence on Ketakers RSI right now. And again, Bitcoin is basing off of the 200 simple and the blue 377 EMA right there, which generally have been like a supportive cloud for long-term bullish moves in the past as well. In fact, I'll show you just the straight up uh, you know, charts with that. And if we go back again, just focusing on those two moving averages again, the white and the blue ones right here. When they cross the upside, generally good. When they cross the downside, generally bad. You can see over here, generally bad. Over here, generally good. Over here, generally good again. Or actually, this one never even crossed the downside. remain to the upside the whole way through in the previous market cycle. Same thing to the downside over here. Same thing to the upside over here. Same thing to the upside over here. So on and so forth. You get the idea. Anyways, yes, Bitcoin is using that to base off as of right now. So look, uh, if Bitcoin is going to be bullish, I do think it makes most sense for Bitcoin to dig in for its next major low, pretty much where it's at right now. And uh and again for this corrected move, we were saying previously near the middle and end of October that hey, if Bitcoin wants to take a step down, 76 to 77,000 bucks is an area of interest, but that's kind of like the last place that I'll be looking for on potential next higher low. Um that was based off of many of the corrective setups that started to emerge near the end of October. And then also the 5day time frame as well. Remember the 5day time frame did see the silver cross, the cross between that yellow 21 EMA and the green 55 EMA right here. That has happened many times in Bitcoin's past and it's generally led to very very good things over a long period of time. But again, we would really not expect Bitcoin to have consistent closures below at the you know, you know, at the very worst that green 55 EMA, which guess where it is basically 77 uh 330. Again, that one's not closing today. It's going to be closing in about 3 days and 7 hours. But, you know, as long as Bitcoin's above there, that cross is still valid. And I'll just again briefly show you the previous cross to the upside. The most recent one obviously came back on over here in of course uh April of 2023. This one led you through the whole previous bull market. Yeah, there's big corrections in between there, but you can see that that green 55 EMA held pretty much the whole way through despite a little bit of a, you know, nastier or corrective period throughout the, you know, summer portion of 2023. It still did, you know, more or less catch that next major low. Of course, the one before that was coming off the row and a jump over here. That last black swan from 2020. Boom, there's your cross. And, you know, just big massive girthy green deal to the upside all the way through until the next major macro high. Uh, similar thing over here. Even though this one would, you know, certainly not be the best of the examples, but even on this one with that cross that happened a little bit before the rona dump, if we take it from the root from from the worst point of that to the next high, that was still up more than 21% close to 22%. Similar thing over here again this one crossing and a big old move to the upside even from the worst point of that cross the next major high up 73%. And before that you have the whole bull market from 205 to 20 uh 2019 or 2018 over here and before that you know another beautiful crossover here that took you through that whole previous period. Anyways uh yes as long as that does hold I don't really want to be getting super bearish right here. Remember, if we do go back to the 5-day um setup right here for the silver cross, remember it is actually expected that the median low for the uh for the 5day silver cross happens on day number five. And you know what? On day number five, that first period, we have seen the low thus far. Actually, that was that that was right here after the cross. Uh so that is technically playing out in alignment with those stats. And I believe the median loss as well is like 5%. And what do you know? So far, we've lost five spots, 73% from that cross on the confirmation to the next low. So, so far so good. That's holding. That's also again the October low, which we really don't want to see November go below because we've actually never seen November finished green if Bitcoin does do that. Doesn't mean that it's impossible, but hey, I don't want to bet against something like that personally. So, that would really start to switch around my long-term views to being significantly more corrective uh in the long, you know, over the next few months and uh and potentially an uptrend, you know, emerges after that. But that'll be, you know, months away, I'd imagine. Anyways, for right now, Bitcoin still holds. We got election day uh today. And of course, moving on from there, you know, we generally expect Bitcoin to be going up uh from, you know, from that point. So, uh typically by day number 30, you are about 11% up as a median return. And this one actually has a lot more iterations than the daily golden cross, of course. And uh and so, you know, if we're going to see this start to play out, we really start to expect, you know, Bitcoin to to crawl its way upwards back into the $80,000 territory in this month of November. In fact, there are a few really, really, really, really, really good pivots right here. But before we get into those good pivots, I do want to, of course, go over um not just the daily and the 12-hour time frame, which both are showing bullish divergence, but also the 6 hour time frame, too. Um we can see it right here on Carrick's RSI. And yes, you know, short-term that would have well, it's pretty much already at that target. Maybe the 12-h hour time frame has a little bit of a better one. Uh yeah, you know, if that bullish divergence does confirmed, I generally look for the 21 EMA to get hit. And that's actually around uh Monday's high, I believe, or Sunday's high. So if Bitcoin can reclaim that that would be a really good first step but ultimately I would not feel comfortable or sorry one one last thing uh for the blue loss right here daily time frame as well for stocast momentum um we can see that this one will actually cross the upside of today does finish above 77,300 for the first time in this zone since well middle of September when that last rand began from about uh 75,000 bucks to our current high of this rally of 87500 or so. So yes, you know, if Bitcoin can maintain the close uh basically here or higher, especially just above 77,300, let's call it um by end of day, then yes, you will get bullish divergence plus daily scap momentum um once again pointing on to the upside. You will be fighting off, however, a silver cross the downside right here on the daily time frame. Probably not a good thing, but I'm going to ignore that because it does not fit my bias and [ __ ] all that noise. Anyways, um yes, so there is that. Now, let's go over the line in the sand that would uh once again confirm the that the short-term time frame trend has reversed from the downside to the upside. So, for that, I think there's actually a really easy and obvious area to be looking at right here. Your first and probably what would be good enough for me personally to say, hey, uh this is very likely going to resolve in the next major higher lows. If Bitcoin could just trade and close a daily doodle back above yesterday's high, which was 78,800, that would be good enough for me personally. If you want to go by the book, however, it would be if and when Bitcoin could reclaim the midband on the revenue ribbons indicator, which right now is 80,200 and uh sorry, 80,338. Doesn't need to do that today, but if it does it at any time, um you know, especially in this month of November, that would be good enough for me to say, hey, lows are in. I'm once again uh short-term bullish and uh and and and now I would generally be trying to try time a move as a general move to the upside, you know, back towards those previous highs of of course September and October and very likely new highs from there. Um but yeah, until then, you know, short-term it is still corrective. It is still a downtrend. And I really want to uh I need to do better in separating my short-term thoughts from my long-term thoughts because I think this where perhaps I lose a lot of people. Um ultimately, I can be short-term bearish but long-term bullish in this case. I still have to remain with the short-term bearish bias or short-term corrected bias. Um but uh but yes, that that's what I would need to see personally in order to uh you know decisively claim that yeah, you know, we I I've seen enough. It's going up. It's going up and uh correction is over. There's one last thing that I want to leave you with on this video because it is actually a big one. Um it's something that we spoke about a little bit last week. I want to go a little bit more into detail on it on this week. So what we're looking at right here on this chart is a chart of Bitcoin with all these triangles. We got cyan triangles. We got red triangles. And as you might intuitively guess, cyan triangle bullish, red triangle bad because those are the universal colors for bad and good or something like that or green, I guess. Anyways, um the these are representing uh where I believe there are real opportunities in relationship to the put call ratios for Bitcoin specifically. And if you look at the if if if you look at the history of Bitcoin, you can see that when we get those cyan triangles, Bitcoin generally is putting in a low. Doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't trade back down to that low or maybe slightly lower, but we really I really don't expect much lower. So, for example, you see these ones over here. You see these ones over here, even over here. Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be straight up from there, by the way. But hey, a nice bounce even from that first signal given to the next high was a pretty nice uh move of 11 and uh over 11 12%. These ones over here catching the last major low from March of 2025. Again, this one over here, the correction in July of 2024. Bitcoin traded lower than that afterwards. But again, you know, the downside was more or less arrested and that was an opportunity before Bitcoin, you know, exploded to the upside. Uh similar thing over here, similar thing over here, over here, over here, over this one would be the one that I'd say actually did more or less fail. Even then, from the uh from the closure of that to the next high was up 7%. We have not seen a move like that for Bitcoin even as of right now. Uh this one also kind of more in the failure sense as well. Let's take it from a very not ideal position. But even that one up about 4% from you know closure to high. Uh over here big move from you know 49 all the way up to 60,000 almost over here just a you know major macro low and before that we actually don't have data pertaining to uh to Bitcoin before that. I mean this is obviously from the more you know modern period of Bitcoin's life. Anyways uh what does that tell me? It tells me that I probably shouldn't expect Bitcoin much lower than that September low at the very worst. And you know, if this if the November stats hold, we probably don't expect Bitcoin even below the October low if that is if this is going to somehow resolve in a bullish uh you know, in a bullish month or a green month basically. Uh but yeah, you know, that is there. I do look at that as, you know, quite compelling. Um, and it kind of adds on to just my reluctance to get immediately, you know, long-term bearish right here, despite Bitcoin not looking to be just really [ __ ] blood amazing. I'll put it that way. It does not look [ __ ] amazing. Uh, looks like [ __ ] But, but hey, I've seen Bitcoin look like [ __ ] many times before and, you know, somehow it salvaged itself. Um, I think it would be a good time to look at actually some Kouchy marks over here. Uh, I was actually looking at the um, uh, the midterm election predictions. Now, I don't know if it's uh worth it actually to look at these predictions, but I will say I was kind of surprised over here, but ultimately if you want to bet on if you want to bet uh you know the midterms, it is seeming like there are some pretty outsized returns if you do want to bet on the red team. I mean, because ultimately it they are really betting hardly uh harsh hardly. No, they are they're betting intensely for the blue team right now. They give him a 72% uh uh yes contract for Senate control for the blue team and a 93 ccent yes contract for the house for controlling the house for the blue team. Um so for the people who do want to take, you know, a uh I guess the the uh the opposite bet, you know, the contrarian bet, you know, it would be the red team right there. And ultimately, you know, remember these are prediction marks. People are betting on this. Um is it going to be fully predictive of, you know, which team is going to win? I don't know. I haven't been following it for election. And I should remind you that of course if you do want to follow along, if you want to, you know, also represent your own uh political [ __ ] craziness, then hey, be sure to use my show link in the description below because it will get you up to $500 in free trading credit if you trade $50 in trading volume. Other than that, I'll put my money where my mouth is. It's time for me to go over here to to old Coinbase and let's buy 100 Derpinos of Bitcoin right here, right now. Again, I I partner with Coinbase over here because one, they are supplying all of the funds for my ammo and guns in the background there. And more importantly, uh, they will give you 80% off your spot trading fees if you use that shell link description below. It's near the Koshi one as well. That's the old chill corner right there. And statistically speaking, Bitcoin very likely to be green today. But if we are going to see a turnaround between the end of today and the 5 days after that is kind of where we expect to h that to happen. If Bitcoin really plays out any like real downside, uh, it's not going to be it's pro or sorry, it's it's probably going to take out the November or sorry the October low, which is not going to be a generally good thing. So we shall reconvene on that tomorrow.