Recommandations
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Entrée $28,70 29 sept 2026Actuel $28,70 29 sept 2026Résultat +$0,00vs. indice +0,0% SPY +0,0% sur la même période
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Contexte de la transcription source
…. The worst day came on February 9th when Novo sued. The stock gapped down 22% at the open on more than eight times normal volume. Charlie, why didn't you tell us to buy the stock back then? Well, we did. Hims and Hers, ticker symbol HIMS. This, in my opinion, is one of the most obvious buys in the market for folks that aren't just reading headlines, but are actually looking at the bigger picture. Markets right now are panicking first and asking questions second. I think that's going to long-term age to be a great opportunity. But anyh who,…
This, in my opinion, is one of the most obvious buys in the market
Contexte extrait par IA Charlie, why didn't you tell us to buy the stock back then? Well, we did. Hims and Hers, ticker symbol HIMS. This, in my opinion, is one of the most obvious buys in the market for folks that aren't just reading headlines, but are actually looking at the bigger picture. Markets right now are panicking first and asking questions second.
Transcription Complète
Folks, dips don't last. They never have. And the market right now is handing you a very specific one. Just not where most people are looking right now. The headlines say that markets are right near record highs, but under the surface, very high quality, small, fast growing companies are getting absolutely hammered. Today, I'm going to show you exactly why that is happening, why history says it doesn't last, and four stocks that are screaming by and are on sale right now. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you better be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented. Also, we are approaching our final call for the 50% off on Charlie's Playbook membership. If you'd like to get early access to our top ideas and research, you'd like our Zip Trader 25, the newest of which is coming out in a couple days, and all other resources, make sure to check it out with that first link down below. 50% off your first year's membership expiring soon. So, before we get into the four stocks, let's zoom out for a second because the setup in the market right now is really, really interesting. Moy Intrasante, as they say. Now, if you only look at the S&P 500, you'd think nothing is happening. As I'm recording this, it's around 7660, and that's only about 2% or so below the record high it set on August 13th, and it's still up about 12% on the year. But take a minute to look underneath. Look at the small caps. The Russell 2000 is down about 9% from its August 14th high and down more than 5% in September alone. It's on track to trail the S&P 500 by more than 9 percentage points this quarter, which would be its worst stretch against the S&P since the first quarter of 2020. And last week, investors pulled $3.3 billion out of IWM, the biggest small cap ETF. That's the second biggest weekly exit of the year. So, what the hell is going on here, Charlie? Well, three things, and they're all connected. Number one, yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.28%. That's the highest since 2007. The 30-year hit 5.57 on Monday, the highest since 2004. And let's be real, when treasuries, risk-free treasuries pay you over 5% to do nothing and in a tax advantaged way most of the time, well, that means that volatile growth stocks have to do a lot more to attract your attention. Number two, the Fed. On September 16th, the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than 3 years to 3.75 to 4% and they signaled one more hike could come before the end of the year. Number three, oil. This is the big one. Talks between the US and Iran over the straight of Hormuz have stalled. Higher oil means higher and higher inflation worries. And inflation worries mean higher yields. And higher yields mean more pressure on stocks. Again and again and again. It's like a doom loop. Now, who gets hit the hardest in this kind of environment? Well, the smaller companies. Smaller companies borrow more at floating rates and refinance more often. So, when rates go up, their costs go up almost immediately. And that brings me to the title of this video. Dips don't last. That's just the historical truth. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen 10% or more from all-time highs 26 times, and every single one of those came back to a new record. The typical trip from the bottom back to a new high, well, about 5 months. Even the real bare markets, the 20% plus drops, and there have been 11 of them. Every single one recovered. JP Morgan has a stat I love. Since 1980, the S&P 500's average drop from its high point during the year is about 14%. And yet the market still finished the year positive in 35 out of 46 years. So the bears are right. You almost always get a dip. But what they're wrong about is that guess what? You're still positive 35 out of 46 years when you're looking at the historical data. Now you might say, Charlie, what the hell does the S&P 500 have to do with anything here? Aren't we talking about small caps? Now going back to 1987, the Russell 2000 has had 18 drops of 10% or more. Every single one of them was supposed to be the end of small caps forever. But every single one of them recovered. And from the bottom of those last 17 drops, the Russell was higher a year later, 17 out of 17 times with a median gain of 37%. Now, the bare markets are where it gets really wild. You see, nine times since 1987, the Russell had fallen 20% or more. And look at what happened in the year after each bottom. up 40% after the 1987 crash, up 53% after 1990, up 59% after the 2002 low, up 95% after March of09, and after the COVID crash in March 2020, up 129% in one year. So, small caps fall a lot harder, but when they turn, they turn violently. And it can happen fast. In November of 2020, the Russell 2000 gained 18% in one month, the best month in its history. In July of 2024, it jumped 10% in four trading days, while the S&P barely moved. And after the 2016 election, it ran about 16% in about a month. Now, here's the stat I like the most. Right now, with one day left in the quarter, small caps are trailing the S&P 500 by about 9 12 percentage points this quarter. That has only happened four other times since 1987, in 1990, 1998, 1999, and the first quarter of 2020. In three of those four, the Russell beat the S&P over the next 12 months. And on average, it gained about 47% and after the first quarter of 2020, it was up 93% the following year. Now, of course, past performance isn't necessarily an indication of future returns. However, I think historical data is very, very important to pay attention to. So, in today's video, I'm going to break down four stocks that are cheap, great companies, and I think are prime for a massive comeback. Let's start with number four, HIMS. So, what is Hims and Hers, Charlie? Well, it's a tellahalth company. Instead of booking a doctor's appointment, sitting in a waiting room, and then driving to a pharmacy, you do the whole thing from your phone. You fill out an online visit. A licensed provider reviews it. And if a treatment makes sense, the prescription gets shipped to your door. Hims is the men's brand and hers is the woman's brand. They cover hair loss, sexual health, skincare, mental health, and the big one right now, weight loss. Now, the business model is subscription. Most customers pay every month for an ongoing treatment, which is why the number they report is subscribers, and they have nearly 2.9 million of them. They've also been building the supply chain themselves, their own pharmacy and fulfillment facilities, now more than a million square feet, so they could personalize treatments and keep more of the margin instead of handing it to a middleman. Now, the last year has completely changed this company. In 2025, they bought Zava, a European teleahalth platform, which took the brand into the UK, Germany, France, and Ireland. In March, after a nasty legal fight, Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ompic and Wegoi, agreed to sell its branded weight loss products through the HIMS platform. Now, let's talk about the short interest. So, 25% of the float is short. That's about 53 million shares and roughly $1.5 billion. Earlier this year, short interest was above 40% of the float. The shorts have already been covering, aka buying back shares to close their positions. Now, why did shorts originally short this company? Well, in February, Novo Nordisk sued over compounded Wiggoi and the stock dropped some 18% in a day. And on July 29th, the FTC sued over data sharing and billing. And in August, Visa put him in its monitoring program over credit card disputes, mostly from weight loss subscriptions. But a lot of this is starting to turn around. Look at what happened with Novo. They dropped the lawsuit and signed a collaboration so that branded Novo weight loss drugs now sell through the HIMS platform. So, the biggest enemy now just turned into a partner. And if you look at the business itself, Q2 revenue of $753 million, up 38% subscribers near 2.9 million, up 19% fullear guidance raised to 3.1 to 3.3 billion. Q3 guidance of 880 to 900 million, that's roughly 50% growth. And if you look at the catalyst, I mean the Q3 report expected in November. They got to the biggest revenue quarter in company history, and I think they're going to beat that. And the next thing is any resolution of the FTC case or getting out of the visa program, which would remove a major overhang. Another catalyst is weight loss volume through the Novo partnership plus the international expansion ramp including Australia. And now it's time to talk about the chart. So if you zoom out, this chart is an absolute roller coaster. From $72.98 in February of 2025, it fell to $13.74 on February 24th of 2026. That's down 81%. The worst day came on February 9th when Novo sued. The stock gapped down 22% at the open on more than eight times normal volume. Charlie, why didn't you tell us to buy the stock back then? Well, we did. Hims and Hers, ticker symbol HIMS. This, in my opinion, is one of the most obvious buys in the market for folks that aren't just reading headlines, but are actually looking at the bigger picture. Markets right now are panicking first and asking questions second. I think that's going to long-term age to be a great opportunity. But anyh who, look at March 9th. Novo drops the lawsuit and signs the partnership in the stock gaps up 47% at the open and closes up 41% on almost seven times normal volume. It was the best week in the company's history. And looking back, that's the day the bottom was in. Now, since then, look at the lows. $13.74 in February, $18.75 in April, $2153 in May, $2424 on FTC day in July, and $26.73 on September 11th. It's a series of higher lows that are being made here. Even the FTC lawsuit couldn't make a new low. Higher lows mean buyers are stepping in earlier every time and that's a good sign in terms of broader price strength. And here's where I want you to pay attention to the charts history. So back in May and June, Himsb built an inverse head and shoulders. The left shoulder was at $25.35 on May 7th. The head was at $2153 on May 19th and the right shoulder was $25.40 on June 5th. It broke through the neckline around $30 on June 15th and ran all the way to $395 by July 6th. That's the previous pattern on this exact chart and it worked. If you look at the RSI 2 in November and again in early March, it dropped below 30 oversold marking oversold right near the lows in April and early July. It pushed above 70 overbought right near the highs. That's the oversold to overbought pattern that I love to see. Right now it's sitting around 47, right in the middle of that range at fair value, not stretched in either direction. Now here's the setup though. You see the highs are coming down. You had $395 in July, $3446 in August, $31.81 in September, while the lows the lows keep going up. Just take a minute and connect those. And it's a textbook symmetrical triangle with six points. The two lines meet in about 3 weeks. So, this coil is running out of room. It has to pick a direction soon. And the volume inside the triangle is drying up. In late July, it was trading about 17 million shares a day. The last few weeks, it's been like 7 to 12 million. So, that's textbook. The market is waiting here. Next, number three, UiPath, PATH. This is a company that has made its name in something called robotic process automation or RPA for short. Think about all the boring repetitive stuff that happens inside a big company. Copying numbers from invoices into a spreadsheet, processing insurance claims, onboarding new employees, moving data from one system to another. Well, UiPath built software robots that learn how a person does those tasks and then does them automatically. the same clicking, typing, and copying, just faster and without mistakes. Now, it sells that as a subscription to more than 10,000 customers, which is why the key number you got to be paying attention to is ARR, annual recurring revenue. It's at about$ 1.94 billion. And now it's pushing into the next step, a genic automation, which if you follow my channel, you know I'm very excited about. Instead of a robot following a strict script, AI agents can read documents, make decisions, and handle the messy parts while UiPath orchestration software called Maestro coordinates the agents, the the robots and the humans. The pitch here is very very simple. Big companies are going to run thousands of AI agents and somebody has to manage them. Time even named this platform one of its best inventions of 2025. Now, if you look at the short interest, 26.1% of the float is short, which is about 104 million shares and roughly $1.3 billion. Now, why do I think the shorts are wrong? Well, revenue is 410.3 million, up 13%, and they beat estimates of about 398 million. ARR is $1.94 billion. As we talked about before, it's up 12%. Net new ARR was $37 million, up from 31 million a year ago. So, that's accelerating, not slowing. non-GAAP operating margin is 21.7% which beat by roughly 290 basis points. They also raised their fullear guidance to 1.789 to 1.794 billion. This company is profitable. It's free cash flow positive and it has a strong balance sheet. I think the shorts are going to get wrecked on this. In terms of catalyst Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings which are expected in early December, I also think that Agenic AI adoption and pricing data related to that and success with that is something that's really going to cause the stock to blow up. Now, if you look at the chart, zoom out and path has basically gone nowhere in a year. It was at about $121 a year ago and it's about $12.27 today. And this has been a play that we've liked for some years now and it's been a disappointment so far. However, the underlying company is not matching what the stock is doing and I think that's an opportunity. Now, here's why this matters. So, this spring, the stock found a floor between $9.20 and $9.50. It hit that zone three times. Tress in February, April, and May, and bounced every time. From there, it ran all the way to $18 some 83 in early September. Then earnings hit, it gapped down, and it had given the whole run back. Right now, it's sitting on a big testoo. It's 100 day, 180day, and 200 day moving averages are all bunched together between about $12.30 and $12.75. On Monday's downgrade, it dipped below all of them to $1157, and buyers pushed it back to close at $12.19. So, it's cracked, but not broken. The good news is the selling is getting quieter. Earnings week averaged about 70 million shares a day. This week it's about 32 million and the RSI is around 34 close to oversold. Now the bears will tell you look this August run it was just a rising wedge that broke down and the textbook target is back near the $9 to $10 floor. Fair enough but look that's one of the least reliable patterns out there. If you do a lot of back testing that's one of the weakest when we're talking about the upside here. Look gaps love to be filled. The earnings gap starts at $16.24 about 32% higher. And if you want to look at the downside I would put it at Monday's low of $1.50. 57 about 6% lower. Below that is the spring flora around $9.20 to $10 about 20 to 25% lower. I would say that the probable upside here is much better than the probable downside at these current prices. Okay, next we have number two. Sound AI SU N. This is trading at about $5.92 right now. But what is Sound Charlie? Please tell us. Well, it's a voice AI company founded all the way back in 2005. A lot of people remember it as the app that could name a song when you hummed it. But the real business today is voice assistants and AI agents that companies put in front of their customers. When you talk to your car to find a restaurant, order at a drive-through speaker and a computer takes your order or call a restaurant and an AI picks up, there's a good chance that's Sound. Now, we've talked about this before and we called out several really good cycles on Sound. But quite frankly, a lot of folks are sleeping on it right now and that's a big mistake because there's a lot of potential here. But Sound didn't go straight up. No, she went up, then she went down, then she went up, then she went down, and now she's absolutely skyrocketing. And guess what? Sound is back down to cheap prices. The company also just on September 4th closed their live person acquisition, which adds a big customer service messaging platform to their overall offerings. The combined company says it works with 12 of the top 15 global banks, four of the top five global airlines, and four of the top five automakers. So, Soundown is trying to become the voice and conversation layer for how big companies talk to their customers. Now, the short interest right now, 40.8% of the float is sold short, which is about 165 million shares. Now, why do I believe the shorts are wrong here and they're overcrowded? Well, if you look at the core business, Q2 revenue is up 45%. Gross margin is up 610 basis points to 45.1%. And if you look into the details, which a lot of people don't, but if you look into the details, the mix is shifting toward higher margin software and management is targeting 70% plus long-term. Adjusted Ebatital was negative 9.6 $.6 million. This isn't a company lighting hundreds of millions on fire, though. It's getting closer and closer to break even. And they raised the low end of 2026 guidance to 230 to 260 million. And with Live Person, they're pointing to at least 350 million in 2027 revenue. And with all of this, the stock is already down about 73% from October 2025 highs at $22.17. I believe that shorts have gotten way, way, way too greedy on this company. Should this company be trading at $25 or $30? Well, probably not. But should it be traded all the way down here, some 73% down? I don't think so. I think this is greatly undervalued and I think markets will reflect that. In terms of catalyst, we have the Q3 report expected in November. It's going to be the first look at the combined sound hound plus live person numbers. You also have Oasis Edge, which was announced just last week. It runs LLM powered voice agents right on the hardware and cars and devices with no internet connection needed. Deployment is slated for late 2026. I am excited about this. And then 2027 guidance and AI agent contract wins. I'm looking forward to seeing that. That's going to come out in the next earnings report. I think all of these things can cause a nice rerating for the Hound of the Sound. Now, let's talk about the chart and I'll give you the bad. Now, a year ago, this was a $16 stock. It topped at $22.17 again in last October and it had been making lower highs ever since. It's below all of its major moving averages, and the trend is down. No question about it. That's the bad here. But look at the floor. $5.65 to say $5.85, wherever you want to call it. It bounced off that zone in March, in July, twice in midepptember. And on Monday, it closed right on it again at $5.83. And here's why that general floor matters. You see, the last two times it hit it, it ripped. From the March low, it rallied 72% in 5 weeks. From the July low, 45% in six trading days. And the sellers, they look tired. Why do I say that? Well, in early August, it was trading about 47 million shares a day. This week, about 11 million. the selling pressure is drying up right on top of the floor. So, this one to me looks very simple from a charting perspective. I think we have a potential triple bottom here. As long as the floor holds, the setup is alive. If the floor breaks, the setup is broken. But I think there's a lot to indicate that the setup is looking very positive to the upside. Look for a close above $6.65, about 12% higher. The bigger door to go through is $8.19, the August high, which is about 38% higher. And then on the downside, be aware that a close below $5.65 breaks the floor. That's only about 5% lower. I don't think we're going to break below that, but the risk here is easy to define relative to the upside through those doors. I think when you're looking at the short interest, the company itself, and you're looking at the charting, you have a lot of factors pointing up. Next, number one, onds. This company started out as a wireless networking company. Its ondos networks business builds private radio networks using softwaredefined radios for critical infrastructure like railroads. And that is still a core part of the business. However, the growth is in its ONDOS autonomous systems, which are drones and robots. There's the Optimus system, a fully autonomous drone that lives in a docking station, launches itself, flies its mission, and comes back to swap its own battery with no pilot on site. There's the Iron Drone Raider, an interceptor drone that hunts down hostile drones, and catches them in a net. And their Centrics, which detects enemy drones by their radio signals and can take control of them. If you've watched how drones have changed modern warfare, well, you understand why militaries and governments want this stuff. And this year, they've been buying aggressively. Dine Technologies, which makes long endurance autonomous aircraft drone systems, and Worldview, which makes high altitude stratosphoric balloons, together form a new defense division called Onos Sentinel, plus CyberHawk, which does drone inspections for power grids and energy companies. They also announced a partnership with the tier of the palen. That's why revenue went from about $6 million a year ago to about $84 million last quarter. Now, the short interest, 44% of the float is sold short. That's about 237 million shares worth roughly 1.8 billion. A year ago, S3 Partners had short interest at about 4%. So, this is a brand new, very, very crowded bet. Now, why do I think the shorts are wrong? Well, the bare case here is dilution and cash burn. They have issued a lot of stock to fund these acquisitions. That is a fair concern. However, look at what that dilution bought. Q2 revenue was 83.8 million. That's up more than 13x from 6.3 million a year ago and up 67% from just the prior quarter. Full year 2026 guidance was raised to 525 to 550 million. Backlog hit about 613 million at the end of June and they booked another 105 million in orders by August 10th. And here's the stat I like. They're sitting on about 1.4 billion in cash and investments with the stock at about 4.4 4 billion in market cap. Roughly a third of the company's value is cash in the bank. Short sellers will tell you this company is running out of money. They're going to be dead in a year. Well, it's kind of hard to run out of money when you got that much in the bank. A third of your market cap in the bank. In terms of catalyst, fresh this week. Yesterday, Cyberhawk renewed and expanded its deal with SSE, one of Britain's biggest power companies. It's a three-year agreement extendable by two, and it now includes offshore wind turbine inspections. That's the third straight long-term award in a relationship of more than 10 years. Q3 earnings is expected in November. They guided 140 to 155 million in revenue. Hitting that would be another near doubling quarter, which is happening quarter after quarter now. And then finally, we're going to get some details in terms of how the first full quarters of the Dazine and Cyberhawk integration have played out, plus the latest on new defense and counter drone orders. I'm looking forward to see that. Now, when it comes down to the chart, zoom out. This stock is an absolute roller coaster. There's no doubt about it. It bottomed at $4.95 last November and ran to $1528 by January. That's more than a triple in about two months. Then it gave a lot of it back and it's had about two dozen days in the last year where it moved 12% or more in a single day. Now zoom in on September. So the whole month has traded in a $1 box. The floor is $7 and the ceiling is $8. Every time it gets near $8, sellers push back. That includes this morning when it popped to $7.90 on the SSE news and faded back to $7.54. My suggestion here is always look and always follow that volume. On September 24th, 114 million shares traded. That's almost double the normal. And the stock closed green. So, somebody was buying there, right? So, this chart comes down to two numbers. Hold $7 and it's building a base. A potential double bottom. blue $7 and it could slide back towards that July low. If you're looking at it from just a chart standpoint, it's that simple. $7 is the floor and $8 is the door, the resistance that you want to see it break. So anyways, there you have it. Four stocks that I think are greatly oversold. They're greatly overly shorted and I think have a lot of elevating factors pointing to the upside. Anyways folks, if you appreciate videos like this, make sure to let us know in the comment section down below. Don't forget to like and subscribe and of course let us know what your favorite stocks are down below. Anyways, have a great rest of your day and we'll see you in the next
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