🚨Dips like this don’t come often (DOUBLE DOWN)

You guys have been asking for this video for quite some time, and I've talked about all seven of these investments many times on this channel, and I've invested my own money in every single one of them. But I know a lot of you are watching them really closely right now because some have gone up and some have gone down a lot. So, which one should we keep? Which one should we cut? And which one should we double down on? A lot of you have been asking me about these for months. So, this is the full update. And here's exactly what it's looked like in just the last month. Five of these seven are actually down. I ren fell about 30% in a single month. And Ion Q is down more than 25%. Alphabet just dropped about 10% in one night after its earnings. And the two that went up, one just hit an all-time high and another jumped 13% in a day on its earnings. Let me show you the data on every one of them and then I'll give you my call on each. I've been buying some of them super heavy, but a lot of these are actually getting a bit scary. My name is Nolan Goa. My students call me Professor G, and I made this channel to make investing simplified. Remember that all investing carries risk. So, do your own research. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a financial adviser. So, first, what's actually going on? Because when you look at the S&P 500 and you look at what's been going on overall on the entire market, doesn't seem like there's anything bad that's happening. As I record this, the S&P 500 is right about at its all-time high. But the riskiest corner of the market did get hit much, much harder, which is why I always talk about in every single one of my videos, making sure that you calculate how much risk you can actually take and watching how risky your portfolio actually is. So, here's basically what happened, and it comes down to three basic things. First is inflation. September, inflation came in hotter than expected. And after raising rates in September, the Fed held steady on October 28th, although two officials wanted another hike. Markets are expecting potentially another increase by December with the 10-year Treasury yield still above 5%. Second, AI spending concerns. Demand is booming, but investors are questioning who's financing these massive data centers. Gartner warned that over 80% of smaller AI cloud companies may not survive independently by 2030 while Core's bond yields approached 15%. Even Nvidia's CEO acknowledged that capital is scarce. And third is oil prices. Rising tensions with Iran pushed Brent crude to roughly $117 per barrel, adding inflation pressure and increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates. But here's the part that matters for this video. Why do these higher risk style stocks get hit so much harder than the rest of the market? Three basic reasons again, and I want you to remember them because you're going to see this throughout all of my analysis. Reason number one, their profits are further away. A stock is worth the cash it will make in the future, brought back to today, and higher rates shrink money that's far in the future the most. $100 of profit 10 years from now is worth about $68 today if rates are 4%. but only about $56 if rates are at 6%. That's a 17% hit. A $100 coming next year barely moves. So, a company making huge profits today tends to hold up better. And a company valued on profits years from now gets hit hard. Reason number two, they need outside money still. If a company is still losing money or building like crazy, it has to borrow or sell new shares. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and selling new shares means your slice of the company gets smaller. You'll see exactly that with a couple of the names in this video. And reason number three is just that they move more. Since the October 6th high, the S&P 500 is down about 1%. SPHB, an ETF that holds the S&P 500 stocks most sensitive to market moves, is down about 8%. And the S&P 500 low volatility ETF, SPLV, is actually up about 5%. Same market, completely opposite results. And we've seen this exact thing happened before. In 2022, the Fed raised rates from near zero to over 4%. The S&P 500 lost about 18% that year, even counting dividends. Kathy Wood's ARC Innovation ETF, full of high growth names like these, lost 67%. That's a big difference. Morgan Hel put it perfectly. In investing, volatility is almost always a fee, not a fine. It's the price of admission for higher long-term returns. So, the real question right now is, is this business still something that we should be paying that high fee for? So, for each one of these names, I'm going to give you a reason why I still like these long-term, but then I'm going to tell you the real numbers and how it's done this year, and importantly, where analysts think it can go. Then I'm going to give you my exact call. Should we keep? Should we double down? Or should we cut it? I split these seven into three tiers by risk, lowest, risk to highest. So, let's start with tier one. These are going to be the biggest, most profitable businesses on this list. And number one is actually my largest stock holding out of everything in my portfolio as far as individual stocks. And this is Bergkshire Hathaway, BRKB, trading around $540 as I record this, just below its October 26th record close. It's up about 7% this year and 7% in just the past month, including a 10-day winning streak. Back in September, I told you all that yes, Berkshire Hathaway has been trading pretty sideways for quite some time and that I'm buying heavy. Well, that patience is paying off. So, why is Berkshire climbing while a lot of these other ones are struggling? First, investors are looking for safety. Between October 5th and 20th, the semiconductor ETF SOXX dropped roughly 15% while Bergkshire kept climbing. Plus, two major holdings, Chevron and ODenal, are up over 10% this past month thanks to rising oil prices. Second, the businesses are performing. Operating earnings jumped 16% to roughly 13 billion dollars last quarter with energy up 27% and manufacturing services and retail up 24%. Bergkshire also has about $177.5 billion in insurance float to invest. Third, Greg Ael is putting cash to work. Bergkshire repurchased $4.5 billion in shares, invested $10 billion in Alphabet, and acquired Taylor Morrison for roughly $6.8 billion. So now is Bergkshire still a buy right now in my opinion? Well, looking at analyst average targets, they sit around 542 to 556, although UBS sees $628. Morning Star estimates fair value at just $510. So after this rally, Bergkshire isn't exactly cheap. And remember, even Bergkshire isn't immune to crashes. Buffett himself documented four separate declines of 37% to 59% in Bergkshire's history. Even the best investments experience serious volatility. So my call on Bergkshire right now is Keep. It's been one of the stocks that I've been buying every single month for quite some time. But after this last runup, I'm actually just holding at where I'm at. Happy to let it keep growing, but I'm not adding more today as it is literally at the highest that it's been. Now the next one is the company that Bergkshire put 10 billion into this past June. Now, before I show you the analysis on the next six stocks, let me show you how I conduct actual research so that you could do this on your own. I use Investing Pro by Investing.com. Thank you to investing.com for sponsoring today's video. Investing.com is the go-to financial website that many of us use daily. I use ProPix AI to use artificial intelligence to analyze the market and gives you a list of the top investment opportunities. One of my favorites is this Tech Titans, which has been absolutely crushing the S&P 500, as you can see here. Taking it one step further, I copy the watch list for this strategy here in the Tech Titans. Then I head over to Warren AI to dive even deeper. And watch this. I pull up my list of those stocks and can start heavy research. So, I personally like Marll a lot. I click on that stock to see the current chart. Then I switch this to senior analyst to give me the absolute top data. Analyze Marll as a long-term investment and watch. It pulls the fundamentals and the analyst data then reads the actual chart, the trend, the support and resistance, and it checks its own work before walking me through the whole picture, showing exactly where each part came from. This gives me some muchneeded depth for my research in minutes rather than hours. Investing.com is running a flash sale right now with up to 55% off Investing Pro, but this sale will go quick and if you use my link below, you'll get an extra 15% off on top of that. The link is the first one down in the description and I'll pin it in the first comment as well. All right, so number two on this list, this one is Alphabet or Google. Trading around $290 as I record this after dropping roughly 10% following its October 28th earnings report. That's down 7% this year, 14% in the past month and 27% below its May record of $399. But the thing that's just very interesting is that Google's business is actually doing very, very well. Revenue jumped 25% to $127.6 billion. Google Cloud more than doubled, growing 103% to 30.7 billion with a massive $561 billion backlog. Search still grew 12%. Gemini surpassed 1 billion users and operating margins remained strong at 32%. So why did the stock drop? Spending. [snorts] Alphabet spent roughly 51 billion dollars on AI infrastructure in just three months with plans to spend 195 to$25 billion this year and even more in 2027. That pushed quarterly free cash flow to negative $9 billion. The company also raised 12.4 billion through stock sales, borrowed $28.7 billion, and stopped repurchasing shares. Revenue and earnings also missed expectations. Analysts were overwhelmingly bullish going into earnings with average price targets around $420 to $430, roughly 45% above today's price. Morning Star estimated fair value at $433, but those estimates were made before this latest report. So here's the big picture. Cloud revenue doubled, but capital spending more than doubled, too. Investors are questioning when all this AI spending will actually pay off. So what's my move with this? I'm doubling down. I actually did double down. I told my school group the night before it dropped that I'd be buying. And that next day at market open, I doubled my position when it was at $280 per share. And I let all of them know as soon as I did it. I'm happy with that buy and I'm holding this thing longterm. Let's move on to the next stock. And this one's just been all over the place and borderline frustrating. So, I get it. But let me talk about what's going on here. This one is SoFi. It's trading around $17 or so, down 35% this year and 47% below its November high, but it recently jumped 13% after its October 27th earnings report. And here's why. So's business has never been stronger. Revenue surged 44% to a record 1.37 billion. It added$1.2 million members, bringing its total to 17.1 million, and deposits reached $51.3 billion. It also generated 241 million in profit and raised its fullear revenue outlook to $5.04 billion with $6.4 billion projected for 2027. So why is this stock continuing to struggle? Shareholder dilusion. Concerns from short sellers and higher interest rates have weighed heavily on the stock, but the latest earnings showed profit growing 73% year-over-year with personal loan losses actually improving. Wall Street remains divided with an average price target around 20 to $21, roughly 20% upside, although some analysts see $26 to $27. So, what's my move on this one? For me, right now, I'm just holding. SoFi remains a small position for me and the business is performing exactly as I hoped. If profitability keeps improving and we keep seeing this same growth rate, I could definitely see myself buying more. But for now, I'm letting the investment play out. Next is actually an ETF and this is the Round Memory ETF DRM. Trading around $54 today, up roughly 95% since launching in April, but down 9% this past month and 33% below its June high. This ETF invests in the memory chips powering AI with roughly 75% concentrated in Micron, Samsung, and SKHix. Now, if you want to talk about businesses booming, these are the ones that are doing that. Micron reported 54.2 2 billion in quarterly revenue with an 87% gross margin. SKHenix reported record profits and says its memory supply is effectively sold out through 2029. Samsung also reported record operating profits of roughly $80 billion. So why is this one down now? Memory prices are still rising, but the pace is slowing. DRAM prices increased roughly 80% in the second quarter, 40% in the third, and are expected to rise just 10 to 15% in the fourth. Investors are worried the memory cycle could be peaking despite record demand. And volatility is extreme. Korean chip stocks experienced massive swings this month, while Micron analysts still see roughly 45 to 65% upside. So for this ETF, I'm holding, but I'm also buying whenever we see big enough dips. This is my most aggressive AI investment and it's a relatively smaller portion of my entire portfolio because the risk is so high and because I practice what I preach when I'm telling you to build out your portfolio this way. But I do believe in this and I am going to continue adding when I see dips that don't make sense. Now let's jump on to the highest risk possible highest upside and this tier for tier number three. Number one is APLD applied digital. It's down 17% this year and nearly 59% below its all-time high. Applied digital builds and leases AI data centers and business is growing incredibly fast. Quarterly revenue surged to $341.9 million, more than quadrupling year-over-year. It has 1.41 gawatts of leased capacity representing roughly 36 billion in contracted revenue. About 250 megawws are already operational with another 600 plus megawws expected to come online over the next year. So while that sounds pretty good, why the massive sell-off? Debt concerns. Applied digital has roughly $6.4 billion in debt against $3.7 billion in cash, including restricted cash and needs billions more to complete construction. Its exposure to core weave and rising borrowing costs have investors nervous. Plus, some recent revenue came from construction rather than recurring rent. Wall Street remains bullish with average price targets around $56 to $64, nearly triple today's price. But this is the most interesting thing for me and these are the types of things I love to find for companies like this and why it actually makes me way bullish for this long term. The CEO and president recently purchased roughly $6.7 million of shares with their own money, around $18 to $19 per share. So, my move on this is that I'm happy to be holding, but I actually bought some. I'm still buying whenever the dips seem a little irrational. This is part of the highest risk possible highest reward in my portfolio. So, it is relatively small, but I am adding to it. And speaking of adding to it, let's talk about this next one. INEN. It's down about 24% this year and about 31% in just the past month. It's about 62% below its record close from last November. And as you can see here, I told my school group when I made these buys and at what dollar amount earlier in October. To get in on the inside scoop the second I make these buys or sells, join the school group today for a free trial for 7 days. Link is down below. So, IN started as a Bitcoin miner and it's changing everything over to purely AI. And the contracts are real. It signed a 5-year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft and delivered the first of four phases in August. It has a 5-year, $3.4 billion contract with Nvidia. And Nvidia even got the right to buy 30 million IN shares at $70. In July, it signed $2.8 8 billion of new contracts with names like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Perplexity. And for the first time, AI cloud revenue passed Bitcoin mining revenue last quarter. So why the drop? There are two layers to it. First, the IN specific part. On October 7th, the industry research firm Semianalysis said IN's older Canadian sites were the worst in the industry while saying its Texas campuses look much better. The stock fell about 13% over those two days. Then the whole AI cloud group got hit by the rate and debt scare with drops of 12% on October 14th and 11% on October 16th. And it's not Bitcoin. Bitcoin only fell about 5% over the same month. Looking at about 20 analysts, mostly buy ratings and an average target around $77, more than 2.5 times today's price. But most of those targets were set before this month's drop. So take them with a big grain of salt. Iran reports earnings on November 5th. So, my call on Iran, like I said from before, I did buy. I'm mostly keeping, mostly going to keep that position, not buying huge, but anytime there's a crazy dip, I'm definitely buying. I bought more right after its earnings report in late August, again on the dip in September, and I made one more small buy on this drop like I showed in early October. Now, moving on to the most risky on this list, and it's one that I'm still very, very heavily strong on. Ion Q. It's around $32.40 as I record this. It's down about 28% this year, about 27% over the past month, and about 60% below its record close from October 2025. If you watch my Quantum Stocks video in May, ION Q was my number one. And the business has done what I hoped. Revenue last quarter was $80.1 million, which is up 287%. They've raised their revenue guidance for this year three times from $225 million to $245 million back in February to $450 million to $460 million now, including the Skywater chip foundry they bought. Their backlog is $485 million and they're targeting their first 256 cubit system deliveries in 2027. Now, all that sounds very good, so why the heck is it down? Reason number two from the beginning, outside money. On October 12th, IONQ agreed to buy a cyber security company called Elicity for up to $1.3 billion paid all in stock. The stock fell about 9%. 2 days later, it priced a $2 billion sale of new shares and preunded warrants at $40, and each one came with two more warrants to buy stocks at $6946. That's 100 million new warrants. The stock fell another 9.5% and about 9% more when the deal closed on October 16th. That's their second $2 billion raise in about a year and last year's buyer paid $93 a share. They're also still losing money about $120 million last quarter, even on an adjusted Ebida basis. Most analysts are still bullish with an average target around $63 to $68, roughly double today's price. ION Q does report earnings on November 5th, so we'll see exactly what's going on there. But my call on ION Q right now is what I call cut. Now, I'm not saying cut like take it out of the portfolio. I'm cutting any new dollars going into it as of right now until I can see a better trajectory. I'm happy to hold this. I'm definitely not letting it go. I still believe in it long term. I just think we might be a little bit further away from what I had initially thought, especially with Quantum. And so I'm just here for the research. I want to see what's going on, but I'm not I am not dropping this investment. So here's the whole thing on one screen for you. Double down Alphabet. This is the best business as far as valuation I believe on this list. About 27% off its high after earnings and I'll add in pieces. I'm keeping Bergkshire Hathaway where I've paused my monthly buys after this run but happy to see it up. SoFi and the memory ETF DRAMM both built on profitable businesses that just put up record numbers and apply digital in Iran which stays small. Cut would be ION Q. No new money until the dilusion stops. Now I've said this before, but here are my three rules on buying these types of volatility stocks. Rule one, a lower price is not the same as a discount. Check the business, not just the stock price. SoFi and Micron keep putting up record quarters. Applied Digital's revenue more than quadrupled and all three stocks are still well below their highs. That's a sale. Ion Q's business grew too, but my share of it shrank. That's the difference. Rule number two, buy in pieces, not all at once. Nobody catches the exact bottom. Look at the memory ETF. It fell to about $45 in late July, ran back up to about $64 by late September, dropped right back to about $46, and then bounced more than 15% in a few days. If you bought it all at once, your timing decided almost everything. But buying in pieces spreads that risk out. And rule number three is all about risk, size by risk. The riskier the name, the smaller the position. Every speculative name in this video is a small slice of my portfolio. The core is still ETFs and index funds. That's why I ren dropping about 30% in a month is painful, but it doesn't really mess with my portfolio. I hope you enjoyed this update and I'll bring more to you as we learn more. But for now, watch either of these two videos to keep you going strong in investing and remember to keep investing simplified.