Here's Why I'm Buying Every Dip:

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all the other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not investing happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. For those who want a more direct way to interact with me, I now offer private one-to-one access. You'll be able to message me directly, ask questions, discuss markets, investment ideas, or specific topics privately with me. It's all designed for the people that want a more direct interaction than what I can provide publicly. And you can access it through the first link in the description below. All right. Hello, and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel. And I've been saying for a while all dips are for buyin and I really do mean that. So I'm going to focus on the dips I want to be buying over the coming couple of months. We didn't get a black Monday yesterday. No surprises there really to be honest. And as it stands right now, the futures are pretty much flat. So we will see if we can actually get this bounce confirmed out of the half cycle though. We made good progress yesterday, but it does need to follow through today. We do have extreme fear in the stocks. And this is not my favorite metric. I don't think this is the most reliable metric, but it has been a while since it's been up here. So, I still think we have a wall of worry to climb. And you can see the consumer confidence as well is very, very negative. It's actually showing a recessionary look. If you take a look at historical downtrends for consumer confidence, meanwhile, the interest rates are still pricing in a pause. So, no changes there either. I've been saying we should get this half cycle low resolve higher. We should get a new rip to new highs soon. But, of course, we have to be open to the downside scenario, too. If what we see here is a lackluster bounce and then cycle failure, it will set up the decline into the four-year cycle low late this year and it would probably look something akin to this. But I do want to give this thing the benefit of the doubt for now. Until such time as we see failed cycles, then I want to remain bullish because so far, objectively speaking, we have got higher highs and higher lows coming in. I found this from Hemrich and I kind of agree. I think we've reset the weekly cycle for the Russell 2K. So I do expect to see another leg higher in the small caps. And again, it's quite contrarian at the moment to say things like this. It seems from my perspective anyway. I think most people think that only negative price action can resolve from here. And it is one possible outcome, but I just think there's enough wall of worry in place here to climb higher for a while. Over in the world of Bitcoin, we have some of the tightest Ballinger band squeezing that we have seen in the past 2 and 1/2 years. The last time we got down into this kind of neighborhood, price squeezed up like this, which makes me think if I just draw another one approximately the same size, we could probably get either this or this from here. The daily cycles actually support the upside leg here, whilst the weekly cycles kind of support the downside action. I've been saying for a while, my gut feel is that the current daily cycle low due around the 16th, which I think is in at the moment. It's just pending a bit more upside left translates and fails. I said I'd play the long from the daily cycle low in case I'm wrong because the best way to be wrong is to make money whilst doing it. But I do kind of expect these trades to be stopped out and head for Goblin Town, but that's fine too since it sets up a clean 4ear cycle low to trade later in life. And of course, if this upcoming daily cycle low, which should start to move higher imminently now, resolves to higher highs, then the following weekly cycle will form in the same window late this year, but as a higher low instead. Again, all very consistent with what we've been saying for months on this channel now. And that becomes the final dip before we go inso Berserko mode. So it should be fun times ahead here. To give you a couple of visualizations for what this might look like, this is the most bearish scenario. Okay, this is printing a lower high or an equal high and then left translation and failure in the current daily cycle. If we get this, it would set up another left translated and failed daily cycle and then we could head down to Goblin Town for a while and have a nice high probability low to trade. But as I've been saying, whilst I want to be aware of this, whilst I want to be ready for this and whilst I want to be able to capitalize on it if it comes, it's actually not my base case. I think what we're more likely to get is a higher high before then it ultimately makes its way down and fails the cycle into a higher low. Notice this, okay? And then we can go. And this is why I've been saying all dips of a buyin because as far as I'm concerned, it doesn't really matter what path we take. What matters is once we get into this timing window here, there will be a dip. Okay? There will be a weekly cycle. And the only question is, is it a lower low, an equal low, or a higher low? Like I said, my base case at the moment until proven otherwise is that it's going to be a higher low. And I want to just make sure I get my allocation here ready for the new bull market. If it should so happen that we do come down and make a lower low or a double bottom, then again, I still want to buy that dip. So all dips are for buying as I've been saying. And I know some people will be watching me say this and thinking, "Oh my goodness, like why is there so many scenarios? How can you be bullish and expecting a higher low, but you're also saying we might come down and make a lower low?" Well, if you cast your minds back to when people cheering on this being an early 4-year cycle low was in, I was saying the whole time, this is the problem, and you should be careful with what you wish for. If the low forms early like this, it leaves a number of paths and complexity until we're well through this window of time. So, if you're sat here feeling a bit confused or thinking, I don't know if I should be super bullish here, or should we target a higher high and then a higher low? Should we expect failure and then down to new lows? Welcome to the complexity of having to deal with a low that forms outside of the window. I did warn you. I told you a bunch of times that it is going to be complicated and a pain to deal with. You're going to have to get used to holding multiple possible outcomes in your mind at the same time. You're going to have to have a degree of flexibility here. But I think if you want to make it as simple as possible, we can simply say this. Whether it goes up, down, left, right, or in circles, there should be sometime in here a high probability weekly cycle low to buy. And the question really is, are we going to be buying up here or here or down here? It's really as simple as that. And in the meantime, it's just a case of trying to eliminate each of these scenarios as the market shows us new data. So if we get this lower high, okay, then I would expect to be much lower down on the chart for the weekly low. If this daily cycle low resolves to a higher high up here, then I would expect this low to be significantly higher up. Something more like this. Like I said, there's complexity. We might have to entertain something like this. This would be really annoying, wouldn't it? But that's what it did back in the prior cycle. remember we had the push off the lows and then this level here would be akin to the 25k floor and no one really knew if it was bullish or bearish and back then the OG's will remember it's malpractice to be bearish above 25k and soon after we pump to about 50k so it may be that this is what we get and our higher low is significantly higher up from here again be careful what you wish for right when cycles don't work out we have to deal with a bunch of different scenarios but like I said I think if you just simply aim for the weekly cycle low window and know that a pivot will come the only question really is how high or low is that pivot. But it doesn't really matter in terms of time. We just wait for the time, wait for all the confirmation signals, and grab hold of a low. Over the past few days, I've been thinking we're pretty much in the neighborhood now where it's going to be time to start adding things to the longerterm account. For me personally, micro strategy is one of these. I don't know if it's going to do this loop the loop on the way down. I don't know how far down it's going to come. Similarly to Bitcoin, because this is potentially an early low, we have to entertain all possible outcomes, which means it could bottom here and then move up significantly and never come back near these lows. It could also, of course, do all of the affforementioned things that I said for Bitcoin, which means this low once it's in near the weekly cycle low could be anywhere from a higher low to an equal low or even new lows. But I think from a cycle perspective, we've elapsed a lot of time here. This is the kind of neighborhood where I'm thinking, okay, it's going to be time to start getting some first initial tranches, right? Some starter positions in the likes of these higher beta assets. And then let's say I buy here and it does this. Okay, fine. Then we'll just add some more higher up. If we buy here and it does this and moves down, well, okay, fine. We'll just buy a second or third tranch somewhere down here. Average in towards the bottom in the high probability window and then wait for the new bull market. So, if you don't like that, you don't have to do it. Of course, you do you as always. But this for me is the kind of area where I'm thinking, yeah, okay, we've got this shoulder back here somewhere ahead. Now, we're forming the other shoulder. That's been a setup I've been calling out pretty much since the top and now we're here. So, it's soon going to be time for me to do some shopping. And remember, if this is going to form a higher low, that means this is sort of one into two, right? Same deal for Bitcoin as well. You could do this on the Bitcoin chart. If we're going to form the higher low, then this whole thing here would really just be one into two before then we move higher. That would be your higher low, your inverse head and shoulders, all that jazz. But the reason I'm bringing this up is, as we've been saying as well, oftent times the wave 2 pullback elicits stronger bearish sentiment than at the actual lows. That's part of the personality of the wave 2 pullback. So when I say all dips are for buying and you know don't mess this up really what I'm talking about is regardless of how well you've played this move so far once we get this pull back okay wherever it forms it's important to recognize the sentiment the sentiment whether it's a higher low or a lower low or a double bottom is expected to be extremely negative and so do not allow yourself to fall into the trap of thinking it's over or this whole cycle's failed and now it's just down only for the next four years or whatever. You're going to have to make sure your emotions don't get in the way here. You have a plan and you trade the plan. And that applies to these higher beta assets as well. So very nearly in the neighborhood for me to start getting the initial tranches of some of these assets. The ones that look much more simple and clean like there are some of those higher beta assets that have clearly printed some weekly cycles, pulled up weekly cycle low, left trans, and failed the weekly cycle. Those ones are just seeking four year cycle low. They're very obvious and easy to identify. So those I won't have to average into, right? I'll just wait for the monthly confirmed pivot and buy my tanches in there. But when you've got more complexity in the chart like we do with Bitcoin or Micro Strategy, then for me it's just a case of saying, "Okay, the cycle's doing weird stuff. We have to be open to a million possible outcomes and we just have to try to position every which way so that whether the market goes up or down, I have a plan and I'll be able to take advantage of whatever the market's going to give us. In the other areas of the markets, things are looking okay, right? TLT has had us move off the lows. Now, it just needs to form the first higher low pullback and break out. And that is step one complete in leaving behind a 7 and 1/2 year cycle low, which is in and confirmed. So, because we're on the monthly time frame when we're talking about the 7 and 1/2 year cycle, it's going to be a while, right? It's going to be a couple of weeks before we can see that candle. Then, we're probably going to need a whole another month to follow through before we can say for sure that that is indeed the 7 and 1/2 year cycle low and that we've got a full 7 and 1/2 year cycle ahead of us. It's not good for a lot of people. A lot of people want everything right now. They they think this is the price is right or whatever. And markets don't work like that. But as I keep saying, one day at a time, keep looking for evidence to confirm our ideas and keep being aware of the invalidations. Okay? If invalidations are hit, it's time to get out quickly before small losses that are manageable and recoverable become unacceptably large losses. But so far, we got the makings of a half cycle low bounce in the stocks. We are somewhat starting to deviate away from this, okay, but I mean, we have done plenty of times before. It doesn't mean we're ready to discount it. We've got our invalidations for a reason. And we'll see if we can get it. Maybe this proves to be too bullish and we just end up coming up a little bit higher before we top. And of course, there's always a chance that we're going to do something like this on the way down. Again, we'll just take it one day at a time, okay? And we'll let the system tell us when to be in and when to be out of the market. Oil looks like it's going to go for that fake breakout I was talking about. So, we'll see if we can get it. I know a lot of people think that this is certain to be $200 a barrel in no time, but I still I'm on the side of the fence that says a fake breakout here should resolve lower into a yearly low. Precious metals, no changes, right? probably one more daily cycle of left translation and failure to reset this and then we can start to truly hunt for a bottom and silver should of course sweep those lows into the lows and then we can get another set of trades on out of here. So nearly there for the metals Bitcoin I think we have a daily cycle low back here. The breast did start to cross as of yesterday or the day before. We have actually just about got a trend line break holding at the moment. So we'll see if we can continue to push off from here. And then again, as per my yellow squiggle, I'm expecting bullishness here because it's easier to pivot once your invalidation hits to bullish and then pivot back to bearish again if this is going to come than it is to just say, I know I'm not going to be wrong and screw my invalidation and let's just target four-year lows, which is what a lot of people did last cycle, and they ended up getting locked out of this huge move, and they didn't really realize it was a new bull market until we were over 50K. So, I want to try to avoid that by saying I'm bullish here. I'm expecting this yellow squiggle followed by an ABC pullback. Okay, which is that final dip I was talking about accumulating in Bitcoin. Worst case scenario, if this does something like this, stops me out, fine. I pay the stop and then we seek much lower prices and then we actually get to buy the low, which would be pretty hilarious if you think about how many people were so sure of themselves only a few weeks ago. Okay, a few weeks ago it was your cycles of BS, they don't work, you're sidelined, etc., etc. And this would all just be a repeat of what we've just seen for gold. So, I'm open to that. As I said, it's not my base case. I want to be bullish here because I don't want this thing to rip to 110K over the next few weeks and then me be going h yeah may maybe I should have bought some spot, right? Don't want to do that. So, I want to be able to position whether the market goes up, down, or in circles. And that's exactly what we've been doing. As I said, worst case scenario, we pay a stop and then we actually get to buy the lows and then have to resist the egotistical urge to come out and say to everyone, "Haha, cycles do work after all." Huh? Who's sideline now, baby? Nah, I would never do I would never do it. I would never do it, but it would probably feel kind of funny to do that. Dixie still pushing, still following the yellow squiggle. No changes there either, right? Notice the theme. No real changes. One day at a time, see what the market will give. 10-year yield looks like it's going to get some sort of counter trend bounce first and then roll over and seek that weekly cycle low. If I pull up the weekly oscillator, not really even close yet, is it? So, probably are going to get that fake breakdown at the least and then we get a bounce and then we get to find out. and TLT doing its best to confirm a weekly cycle low and a seven and a half year cycle here. But until it gets back inside of this blue box, I'm not going to have a great deal of confidence here. So again, one day at a time, as always, resist the urge to run around taking victory laps and counting your chickens. So hopefully that helps a bit. Hopefully you can see my overall plan. As I've been saying, I expect the sentiment to just get worse and worse over the coming couple of weeks, maybe a couple of months, and then there should be some swings to buy. And those swings, I think most people will feel pretty bad about buying or they won't want to buy them, but we're going to buy them anyway, looking out to a new 4-year cycle being born. There probably will be some volatility on the way cuz nothing moves in straight lines. But again, it's just a case of being open to everything, okay? Being more focused on positioning for every eventuality rather than the need to say I told you so. And then before too much longer, it should be good times ahead. I'm your boy, Carol. If you want to claim 30% off the indicator for life, you've got about 10 more days to do so. And you can click here in about 10 seconds to get started and activate your twoe free trial. Until then, I'm your boy Camel. All the best from me. Cheers. Bye. >> Finance to see rocking the markets with his contrarian trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the markets key taking us on a bumpy ride.