I Just Bought $8,000 of These 2 Stocks. Here's Why

Hey everyone and welcome back to another portfolio update for today. Over the past week, the Kosh investing portfolio and the S&P 500 went down by.22%. Year to date, still up 44.24% whereas the S&P is up 12.86% and still up a lot despite having more than one position. And so in today's video, I do want to talk a little bit more about what's going on with Micron. We'll go over our list of stocks here on a technical analysis basis. I will share some updates around Netflix. I still own a position, but I do want to talk about what was mentioned here by one of their co-CEOs. But maybe I'll start with the two positions from the outside. Something I did forget to talk about I think last week and two weeks ago. So the PayPal bull spreads still the same, still untouched there and still in the green. the core one. The core one did get a slight update. So, I apologize on not updating you all. So, I now have the same expiration date, January 21st, 2028. So, a long, long time from now. But I do have four calls at $100. Previously, we were, I think, at $60. So, we're literally following the stock 141. I didn't like it, and so I changed it a little bit. I added a bit more money of course to change it $100 which means if the stock does go up much more we are not going to follow it one for one we are going to go for some extra upside there. Now regarding core weave what's interesting here is one yes it's still up 12.8% year to date which is basically doing the same as the market but it's still experiencing a draw down of 35% a market cap of close to 49.4 4 billion. The analyst projections are of course well the price targets are much higher. The average one sits at $141, but I've seen some analyst notes that say that they are sold out for 2027. Now, on the one hand, it's great. On the other hand, it doesn't really give them much room to increase pricing. And this is something that we've seen Nebus do. They said, "Look, we can be sold out for 2027, but because we can charge more as of right now, we do like to keep some of our capacity free for those shorter term deals." Now, Corewith did tell us a bit of the same last quarter. So if the analysts are telling me it's sold out, is it sold out purely on the part where they don't mind pricing increases or are they completely sold out? Meaning everything is at the same price or maybe it's sold out now already at a higher price. I don't know. But this is something I guess that we'll get more clarity on in the next earnings report because yes for core we reef of course again it's great that they are sold out because well if there are prepayments if there are things like that it's great it's less risk attached to the profile especially the debt profile that core reef has but on the other hand you would still like them to have some capacity where they could charge right $40 million per megawatt or so even if those are shorter term deals. So remains to be seen. I still view Cororee as an undervalued name, an underappreciated name in this whole space. An insane amount of backlog, sin amount of connected energy, active power as well. It's just a matter of I guess here as well sentiment change around the name. Talking about sentiment change, Micron Micron is basically flat before after they reported stock didn't really move at all. Now, yes, year to date, it's still up 239%, let's call it 240%, small draw down. Fine, but something does not make sense. And I've covered Micron's earnings report a couple of days ago. Something doesn't make any sense here. Yes, you can say, "Oh, but the stock is already up so much this year, and that's why it's not moving." It's not a valid excuse. It's not a valid excuse because it is extremely cheap. Yes, it's a $1.2 2 trillion company but now trailing PE is 14.5 times and the forward one sits at 6.1 times something something has to give and I think one big catalyst is going to be the the share buyback announcement in December. Now do we have to wait until December for this name to move? I honestly don't know. We've seen a stock like Nvidia for example be flat for around 7 months or so. Could the same happen here with the micron? It could could definitely happen. There are also midterms in the US. So, so that might impact the stock market. Who knows what happens with oil prices. If those can continue to come down a tiny bit, maybe that impacts the rate hike projections and the sentiment around the whole market changes as well. But as of right now, for the next couple of quarters, this is still a company that's expected to generate an insane amount of revenue. If you look at the annual expectations right now, analysts have already had a couple of days to maybe change their own projections. Maybe not all of them have done so, but still we are expecting to see a lot of growth in fiscal 27, basically double the revenue. And then in fiscal 28, it's already expected to only grow 14% and then only 1.27% in fiscal 29. I I just don't see this happening. I think the projections right now are too low, especially when the company itself is already talking about 2030 and for some customers 2031 and it's not the whole pie of revenue, right? Just over 35%, they're targeting 50% or so. But right now it seems like the projections here are again too low in my opinion. Even if we go and look at free cash flow projections here as well, the fact that they are going to generate this much free cash flow over the next couple of years is incredible. It's $144.4 billion in free cash in fiscal 27. Then you add on top of that 173 billion in fiscal 28 and then another 179 billion in fiscal 29. Now for the share buyback that is going to be announced in December. How big is it going to be? Could it be hundred billion? It could. I think they could definitely say look $100 billion share buyback program for the next 3 to 5 years or something like that. I think that's definitely a possibility because well if you're going to generate this amount of free cash flow over the next three fiscal years and then remember fiscal 2030 doesn't mean this suddenly goes down to zero. So they would definitely have the cash. Yes, of course they're investing also quite a lot but they do have some margin here to play with. Moving on and looking at some names here on a TA basis, we have Google Alphabet basically at the same price again. So, it's an accumulation area right here. If we look at Rocket Lab, we are getting a little bit more momentum there. We're now well closed out the week close to $74 per share. So, we've left those 60 areas. Still a buying zone in my opinion would be in the 60s if you're a long-term shareholder. Let's see what happens over the next couple of months when it comes to Neutron. But as of right now, slowly but surely, it is getting a bit more momentum. We've got a new big contract for Electron. So, the backlog in my opinion will continue to grow and grow. Now, one thing that of course is under pressure and that's SoFi. SoFi is under pressure because of macro, not because of the business itself. as of right now. Who knows? Maybe a couple of weeks down the line. We are I think they will report October 27th if I'm not mistaken. We'll see what happens with guidance. We'll see if it's again a triple beat or not. But as of right now, we are yes, in a major buy zone if you are, of course, a long-term investor. If you're a short-term investor, then yes, it sucks. It's down 40% year to date. Doesn't make any sense. Company's growing a lot. We don't understand this. It sucks. Yes, but if you are a long-term investor, I don't think you mind. Moving on to Amazon. Same thing as with Google accumulation zone right now. Yes, it's been at those prices for I think the last couple of weeks been fluctuating between $240 $255 or so. Amazon still in my opinion one of the best plays for the future. You'll sleep very well at night. Meta Meta has had of course an amazing couple of weeks. Now we're getting a slight slight pullback. $728 is how we closed out the week. Went all the way over $750. Now buying zone would be probably closer to $680 and $710. I still view this, of course, as an undervalued name for the future. As for new, of course, it took a big hit. Then they came out and said, "Look, we respect Monzo. We like what they're doing, but as of right now, we are not interested in buying a Monzo. We are focused on our core markets, New Global and the US expansion. When that was announced, stock of course recovered a bit. We are still here in the buy zone for the foreseeable future. amazing company and I think that message to the market to investors reassured them saying okay we have our core markets we have our expansions already in place that's enough for us as of right now as for Netflix and we'll talk a bit more about Netflix in a bit Netflix stock is under pressure yes if you're looking for value it is definitely in a buying area as of right now but if you want to wait for the next earnings report and call get a bit more information. You might have to pay for that information, right? Because maybe the stock will jump after the earnings. But if you do want to get more information to be more comfortable with your decision, then waiting for the earnings report is the right move. If not, right now, yes, it is quite cheap. As for Nebus, one of those names that just keeps crushing it time and time again. You might not want to chase it here. You might want to wait till we get maybe more information. The next earnings report. Earning season is again right around the corner towards the end of this month. We'll go back right into it with Nebus. Yes, if we do get a pullback closer to $200, $215, I think that would be great. But if not, then not. But this is a name that could be up 10% in one day, could also be down 10% in one day. Another name that's been under pressure, not really moving that much. It is undervalued, but we are still waiting for a catalyst, and that's Reddit. I own Reddit, but there's also a reason why I'm keeping that allocation quite low as of right now, because I do want to see them maybe announce a new AI data licensing deal, whether it's with Google, OpenAI, Antropic, you name it. This is definitely something that the market is waiting for. As of right now, yes, this is a company that will continue to grow, will generate more revenue, more profits, and expand average revenue per user as well. Moving on to Axon, we are still in a very good buying area in the low 400s. It's still expensive. We call it less expensive than before, not cheap, but it is an amazing company that definitely benefits from the adoption of AI from a, let's say, rotten society from time to time. Moving on to Marcado Libé. Whenever this stock was closer to $2,000 per share, people were waiting for a big pullback. Well, the pullback is definitely here. We're back under $1,700 per share in a perfect buying zone as of right now. If you have access to fractional shares, it is of course much cheaper. But if you don't mind buying the full share, well, for the long run, this is of course a great pickup. Now for me and new, we do have elections in Brazil. I think even today or pretty soon, maybe even today. Of course, that could impact the stock in the short term, but in the long run, I don't think it makes a difference. Then lastly here, that's Uber. Another very profitable name, undervalued name that is under pressure, still in the same buying area or support zone, just under $70 per share. With Uber, I guess the market just wants to see maybe more AV adoption, although that's a double-edged sword because on the one hand, the market puts Uber under pressure because of AV adoption, but on the other hand, it doesn't reward it. So, I don't know what the market is really looking for here. Maybe it is also because of the huge acquisition of delivery hero integrations there. We know big acquisitions they do take time in order for us to see the synergies. Maybe that's why the stock is a bit under pressure here. Otherwise, it is in my opinion a cheap name to buy in this market. Moving on to the portfolio itself, ranking wise, not much has changed, although AMD is now back at the number two spot despite a little trim not that long ago. That's purely because well, SoFi has dropped under $16 per share. So, we still have Nebus at number one. Yes, it's 21% of the portfolio, but it's up 362% all in all despite me averaging up. We have AMD at number two, Sofi 3, then Google, Meta, Rocket Lab, Oscar Health, DLO, Micron, Robin Hood, Palanteer, Rubric, New Uber, Broadcom. Broadcom of course is a fresh position 2.46% of the portfolio. Yes, I will probably probably add more pretty soon. Then we have Reddit here. Cash position Axon Nvidia. Now, Nvidia is getting bigger. Why is that? Well, I did purchase 26 shares of Nvidia. So, around $6,000 extra in that position. Will I increase it? Yeah, from time to time, I will definitely be increasing my Nvidia position a bit more. Think of it as a lucrative cash position. I did also add 150 shares. increased the new position by 10.5%. Why is that? Purely because of the rumored acquisition of Monzo that pushed the stock down quite a lot to me was just a rumor. I said, you know what, I'll take the opportunity uh to buy more. I did at $1260. Stock of course recovered a bit. So, I'm happy with that. I did also sell half of my Netflix position which of course funded the extra Nvidia position. I'm keeping half as of right now purely because of a valuation. It's better than sitting in cash. Although you could you could say that maybe cash is better because cash would not be down 21.7%. Fair enough. But I'm talking about Netflix as of right now. I think Netflix as of right now is a value play. It is cheap. It is undervalued. It is very profitable. We'll see what happens in the next earnings report and call. If I like what I hear, maybe I'll keep it as again a extra cash position and then allocate accordingly. Could take the loss for the year and allocate it to another name. That's definitely a possibility. I could I could just close it out and put it all into Broadcom. It's definitely something that I'm thinking about. But regarding Netflix, stock is down 26.2% year to date. It's been seeing a draw down of 37.7%. Trading PE 21.1 times. Forward PE 19.4. PEG ratio under one. Okay, it's a cheap name. It's a name that's quite profitable, but it is under pressure right now. Engagement growth, growth slowing down, not buying a major studio, right? Put the stock under pressure. Let's listen to what uh Ted Sarandos has to say. And all engagement is not equal. So we are first and foremost we are growing engagement. Uh so we're growing on 200 billion hours of watching. We grew 2% you know in our last announcement. >> Right. But 2% is not what people are hoping for out of you. Right. They're used to doubledigit growth in at least in certainly in revenue and to some extent even in viewership they'd expect more. >> This is my this is my point about the the growth in general. Yes. Overall, we're not growing as fast as I want us to, and we're working on on making that move faster. We are though also doing things that create a lot of headwind to that number. Meaning, >> before we continue, he is already quite frank with us and he says, "Look, yes, we should be growing much faster than what we are right now, which is okay, a good acknowledgement, which is something that Google said about Gemini models as well. We should have done should have been much much better." So that part that's already uh quite quite good. Now the second part here is interesting. >> When we do live we are though also doing things that create a lot of headwind to that number. Meaning when we do live programming on Netflix which is a relatively new thing um we spend about 5% of our content budget on live events. They generate about 1% of our watching >> right >> now. They all but they do a very different job than >> they generate a lot of signups. they're really effective for >> sign up, retention, advertising, all those things that they do, but it creates engagement headwind and how you invest against it. Um, and remember when I say we grew 2%, that's an easy number to sneeze at, but it's through all the growth of live, it's through incredible headwinds from things like the World Cup and world sports and all those things that are going on too. So, it is a we are growing the business. We want to keep growing it faster. This past quarter, we did double digit revenue growth in every c in every region of the world. So the business is great and growing fine. Um I do I mean if you asked me when we if we were growing at 20% I'd be telling you I wish we were growing faster. >> Now what's interesting with Netflix of course is yes they are doing something that we've been talking about for many years on the channel is adding sports events but also adding live events. I think those two things are something that they're investing quite a lot right now as it just said. Yes it's great for signups. It's great for advertising, but when you're purely looking at at certain engagement metrics, it might not be the best as of right now, right? Because certain people just come in, they watch that, and that that's it. But I do think that as Netflix grows and invests more and more in live content and especially sports. Sports, I've been saying this for years, is extremely important for the stickiness of a subscriber. If you can add sports bundles to your subscription, you are going to win quite big. Now, what is going well for Netflix is this. This is streaming TV CPM. CPM is cost per mill by platform. And as you can see, Netflix is by far the best. It sits at $37, Max at 32, Disney Plus 29, Paramount Plus 26, Peacock 26, Prime 24. Of course, there is no YouTube here, but YouTube sits much, much lower than Netflix, $37 as of right now. Monetization is not something that Netflix is doing wrong. The thing for Netflix is we need to see more growth ahead, not just with subscribers, engagement, but we need to see more growth across the board. As of right now, projections are not that great. Yes, it's still expected to grow low double digits revenue-wise, but is that what you want to see? Do you want to see a Netflix that is already a super mature business where maybe 3 years down the line will only grow 8% year-over-year, or do you want to see Netflix start to actually grow faster, 15% 16% 17%. I think that's something that the market is asking for and maybe waiting for as well. Yes, I do think that buying a studio would have been a good move, an expensive move, but for the longer term, I think it would have been a very good move. As of right now, we are seeing more licensing deals, for example, with Disney. Would not be surprised if we see big ones with now the new uh Skyance Corporation. And so, Netflix, yes, as of right now, stays at under 1% of the portfolio. It's a loss of 21.7%. We'll see what happens. Definitely not a broken business. Could be a much more improved uh business. So big moves. Yeah, maybe not so big. Added more to new. Added 6K to Nvidia. The moves from last week were of course much bigger with a Broadcom entering the portfolio. And yes, probably will be increasing my exposure to Broadcom, especially if we stay at those prices and these types of valuations here. Maybe I'll make a specific video talking about why everybody's now certainly interested in uh Broadcom. If you're interested in that, let me know down in the comment section below. I hope you're all having a great weekend so far. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.