Market model says we bottom HERE!

Yeah. Heat. Warning this video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all the other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. For those who want a more direct way to interact with me, I now offer private onetoone access. You'll be able to message me directly, ask questions, discuss markets, investment ideas, or specific topics privately with me. It's all designed for the people that want a more direct interaction than what I can provide publicly and you can access it through the first link in the description below. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel. The interest rates are still currently pricing in a hike at the upcoming FOMC. So, we'll see about that. Still my idea that this will probably repric this way again, but time will tell. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what I think or say. What matters is tell that to the bond market. And high yield credit is continuing to march higher here. Now, this is a pretty dicey situation in my experience. It really has reached this kind of point for me where I'm thinking if this doesn't immediately reverse the next one to two days. I think we're going to have a much more significant correction here. I don't know if you guys have been seeing this. This has been going pretty viral in the Twitter space. The long-term triple Q's model is still tracking extremely well and it should be pretty much the bottom which again would align with this turning around and closing back inside of the range by the end of the week. But we are running out of time to do that. This is very much the vibe at the moment as you can see right here. But as always, 1 to two days of wiggle room is a good practice in markets. We've also been showing this the 200 day moving average. Short stays below tend to be extremely bullish thereafter. So far holding just about okay, we could tolerate a short stay below. And if it is only a short stay, then that again would be inherently bullish. But it is also undeniable that there is a vulnerable look here at the moment. When I go to other places like the small caps for example, this looks a lot better, doesn't it? Right, we've broken out. New cycle lows in place. Weekly just about to fire the breast across. I mean, cycle trend filter green bouncing off the top of it. Things are looking pretty good as far as I can tell here. And it's also true the Dow Jones is in the middle of breaking out, retesting, and resuming. So, there are signs, as far as I can tell, that we should have more upside potentially ahead here. Admittedly though, as I said, we are kind of running out of time for the market to actually find some support here. By the way, whilst we're on this, I've asked the team to put a bunch of things right about this. So, for example, now when you are drawing with the yellow squiggle, you can just right click to exit. That was really bugging me that it wasn't there. Also, we've got the favorites bar at the top. So, you can add your most commonly used drawing tools. It was also bugging me like say I want to buy a breakout here. This was just in the way, all this text, but we now have it so that you can shove the text out the way and get that stuff out the way, which is good. It's much better. And then it leaves you to actually be able to see the price. Also fixed a bunch of other little annoying things. The progress we are making with this tool is phenomenal so far. So, of course, any new customers, thanks to the old charting softwares rugpool on us will be using this and any existing customers that have already got it will be able to just use it in Trading View for free basically. So, if you're a current user, nothing really changes, but all new users will be migrated onto this charting platform. But things are going pretty good so far by the looks of it. Plenty of macro data and the upcoming events of course we can see right here. So, there's plenty of stuff to bounce around. What do you think the jobs are going to say? There's ISM services, unemployment coming as well. It should be a pretty volatile week, but like I was showing you so far, should be close to a turn here. Unless, of course, a turn is not coming. Then we should be close to confirmation of a true breakdown imminently. Speaking of being close to a true breakdown imminently. The last three midterms, Bitcoin crashed. In 2014, it crashed 61%, 52% in 2018, and 26% in 2022. So, the question is, are we about to crash again over the next few weeks? Is it going to mirror that gold setup? This was a pretty nice visual. Remember, it only took about 71 days in the longest case, 13 days, just two weeks in the shortest case. Now, Bitcoin as it stands based on the daily cycle, okay, if it left trans and failed, which I think it did, then it should take about 40ish days plus the inversion to get down there. If you're thinking he's speaking gobbledygook, I don't know what he's talking about. There's our half cycle low, day 30-ish. There's our daily cycle low, day 60ish, right where you'd expect it, left trans day six, failure below. And that means if that is our cycle low here, then to get back into that kind of 60-day window puts us out early December or mid December, I should say, about the 14th, which as you can see right here would be 41 days from today. So, it would bring it in line with the 2018 fractal. You know what else is crazy about the 2018 fractal? Let me first play you a couple of paths here. Okay, so this is the 2014 low as you can see in blue. 71 days, 48% down would put us at about 40K. The black one here is 2018. That would be down to about 38K minus 51% in 39 days. That would bring us in line with that daily cycle low as I just showed you. And then there's the 2022 low, which may only take 2 weeks or so and may only drop another 15% from here, forming that higher low that we've been talking about on the channel. Plenty of different paths, and it might take none of these. It's worth noting 12 months after the election, Bitcoin was up in all three cases. Why then is 2018 so interesting to me? Remember, I've been through all of this, unlike a lot of people that got in at the at the peak of 2021 or the peak of 2025 or got in at 2022 and only bought altcoins, right? I've been doing this a long time and I can remember this. All of this right here was 6K is an impenetrable floor. All of this in here was no way Bitcoin could ever break 6K. It used it as good support for a good amount of time. It compressed with lower highs on the way down and then you got what's known as a bump and run reversal. Bitcoin falls something like 52% in about a month. That was the bottom and in here then you got all of the sentiment wash. Then you got all the people saying well just one more lower low and I'll buy. Now I would argue what we have at the hard right edge is very similar to this but 10x higher. That's what I think we've got. Instead of 6K as a floor price, we've got 60Kish as the floor price. If I was to draw a 60K line in here, approximately 60K, people have been saying, "Oh, you know, that was the bottom." I mean, they did it every every single dip on the way down, but we can't break 60K. We had one attempt and it only made it to 58K and then did this. There's a very similar idea here about 60K, which is 10x higher. And in terms of where we are in the cycle, we're in the exact same spot for Bitcoin to plunge 50% into the lows. That would finally, in my opinion, create the negative and bearish sentiment that I've been saying is the only thing missing from this cycle so far. Now, 52% down would put us at like 36K. I want to say that's too bearish. I want to say that's quite bearish, right? I I don't I'm not really comfortable calling for 36K. I think that's kind of a silly thing to say. Now, it's definitely possible. Unlike a lot of people, I would not say that that is impossible because it's a market. Anything and everything is on the table all the time. But am I comfortable saying I'm calling for 36K? No, not at all. Do I, however, think there's an increasing probability that these lows could get swept? Yes. It just looks more and more like that. The longer this goes on for, the less likely it is that it's a late daily cycle low. And it's more likely to be that this is a day 60 low that left translated and failed. Okay, it did so on day six. That's bearish. That left translates the weekly cycle as we keep saying, which means we've got a long time ahead of us before we can actually get into that bottoming window. It just kind of reminds me because you know the the reality is the people that are in here screaming the bottoms in and buying every single dip on the way down and then going Ben Cohen should go and apologize for wrecking all his followers which is if you think about how insane it is to call for someone else to say sorry for something. Everyone knows I'm not Ben's biggest fan, okay? But to demand a man like that who just gives opinions and ideas away for free every day has done for as long as I can remember. To demand he says sorry for being invalidated on a call. It's crazy, right? It's like this market this space is dominated by entitled Gen Z weirdos. That's that's what my read of this is because no one else would be like, I demand an apology for this guy's call, right? It's insane. It's insane. None of this makes sense for a 4-year low. But it was also equally as insane back here that people were like 6K could never be breached. It's the impenetrable floor price for Bitcoin. And then the moment it did happen, very few people were like, "Oh yeah, I know what this shape is. This is a cut and run bump and run reversal." Right? That's what this is. But the majority of people spent all of their time online and in forums and wherever else they were hanging out clowning on anyone that said it could potentially break. And that's exactly what I see here. I see a lot of people clowning on people saying that, you know, you had all this opportunity to buy and you didn't. Well, I think they're soon about to be humbled by the cycles and by the market. It's just looking increasingly like that, you know. Now, again, I don't want to see that. I want to see this. This squiggle's been here for a while. I want to see us bounce here. But the longer we do this, the more impossible it becomes based on the cycles, right? Nothing's ever completely impossible. But this is just the reality of the conversation here. So, I make the case this is quite similar to that 2018 bare market plunge based on sentiment, based on the structure, based on even the number. It's 6K and now it's 60K, right? Like, Bitcoin does do weird stuff like that. At the same time, most people would literally think it's impossible. Okay? They think it's just not possible that Bitcoin could do that when it clearly is possible. It could definitely do that. It wouldn't be that hard. If you think it's impossible, you just haven't traded Bitcoin very much. And then at the same time, the fractal for 2018, which yields that bump and run reversal, just so happens to have the right amount of days before our next daily cycle low for Bitcoin. I mean, some people would say coincidence, other people would say there is no coincidences, and we each get to choose. All I'm saying is this is the kind of stuff that makes me very interested when I look around. I would actually rather see the 22 repeat here where we just kind of go sideways and then pop and then that's it. That's a very very nice tight low to sounds sus bro that that's a nice tight area on the chart bra I'm making it worse to manage the risk around you know like if we get this you get a much smaller range in here you can buy the range break the stock can go below here okay it's a nice tight piece of risk management and then sure the people that bought all of this will be able to say well I bought 60k and you bought 68k or 70k or whatever okay sure but by the time we're done this, no one's going to care. It's still close enough to the bottom to call it the bottom. So, I would actually rather see this path come in. And that's why I keep talking about not dogmatically sticking with a lower low, right? I keep talking about being bullish here, wanting to see a higher low come in, wanting to get a push from here, but everywhere else I look, it kind of is suggesting this is coming. And then again, like I said, it just fits. It fits with everything else. So, super interesting times ahead. One thing that has caught my eye is Ethereum holding up better than Bitcoin. If this continues, then it speaks to potential leadership again to the upside. You know, if you're an ETH guy that was dunking on people back here, how confident are you in your dunking now? Cuz if you're still pretty confident, then I think you're just crazy. This looks like a pretty gnarly bull trap so far. Of course, it could change any moment, but it has not changed yet. But the precious metals, we still seem to be doing this, don't we? So, that's good. Nice and straightforward. Silver, I kind of want to target 44 here. The reason I say that is if I draw a couple of arbitrary trend lines in here, something like this, and then we grab this top one here, notice how we're squeezing in here, right? But what is extremely common into major cycle pivots? And the answer, of course, is fake breakdowns. So, if we get a fake breakdown in here, somewhere between 40 and 44 would do it. And then I think acceptance back inside confirms the bottoms in. And then it should be time to look for a breakout. Only a few more dollars to go. To be honest, anything on a four handle, I have to start accumulating physical now. Like it just I just have to. This is seemingly insane value to me. Can it go a bit lower shortterm? Yeah. Do I care? No. But I think somewhere in this neighborhood, if I was to get the yellow squiggle again and just draw some sort of circle in here, I think anywhere in there represents extremely good opportunity for physical long-term. And I think you can copy and paste this analysis as well, by the way, onto gold. Like I think gold anywhere in here represents extremely good long-term physical value in my opinion. Now that doesn't mean you should go and buy gold. You should do your own thing. But it means from my perspective if I don't start buying physical in the next few days I'm feel like I'm going to end up regretting that heavily. In here I said no no no sentiment doesn't match. Then in here we're like well we could take a couple of longs in the short-term account just in case I'm flat wrong. And now we've done what I said we would do. All that's left to do is act on it. Add to the stack and tuck that stuff away for the long term. Take a look at oil here. Oil still staging a fake breakout, isn't it? So something like this got to be pretty late in the weekly cycle at this point. Got to be looking for a weekly cycle high and a plunge and then I think major opportunity comes for that. I'm still keeping an eye on these higher beers, but I'll save them for the level three members simply because these setups are very clean and clear now, aren't they? This should start diving for a low. There's a bunch of other ones I'm more interested. I mean, this is pretty clean. should start diving for a low and then again similarly to the gold and silver trade we'll finally be there and I'll be doing this well we got down here so now it's time to buy right it's pretty straightforward really when the cycles are clean like this it's only when they throw complexity like they have in the case of Bitcoin or ETH things are a little tougher for a while TLT as well seems like it's going to try to push its way back inside of this box and confirm that really was the low cycle doing cycle things to the max here oh they added the 10-year yield which is good still looks like it's falling doesn't it thing right still looks like it's falling Has it done its fake trend line breakdown yet? Let's see. Almost. So, we were talking about getting this fake trend line breakdown, weren't we? And then we were talking about maybe getting something like this followed by this to a lower high and then a roll over. So, we'll leave this here. But, I mean TLT, if it can get back inside of this box, we'll confirm that all of that's correct. Did they add the Dixie yet? Not yet. Coming soon. But, yeah. I mean, that's pretty much all there is to say, isn't there? So, we'll see how the week closes. Have got to keep an eye on this for sure. This really does need to resolve lower ASAP, but according to this QQQ model, it should do. The only thing to really focus on here, I believe, is one of these paths for Bitcoin. I'm still going to say it again, just to be really clear. I want this higher low to come in. Okay, that's what I'm looking for. But I somewhat suspect based on sentiment and what the metals just showed us, it could be this black path or something approximating it. So, I don't necessarily think we have to go all the way down below sub 40. Like I said earlier, not really comfortable with calling for 36K or even close to it. But to say we couldn't sweep 50 briefly, I I think that would be a little delusional personally. That's just my opinion. But we should be able to have a tradable bottom pretty soon. And we've been saying that since before all of this as well and before we're talking about the midterms, haven't we? We've been saying December to early February should be that sweet spot, that pocket, that window where the cycle can come in. And we've been saying consistently whether it's a higher low, an equal low, or a lower low, we should be buying that heavily. Okay? So nothing's really changed there. We're just basically now in the lock in zone and we know we got about 40 days to find that next daily cycle low for Bitcoin. And then like I was saying earlier, I think the yields call is correct. I think everyone's one-sided about that. And that makes sense because if you think about it, how many people even take the time to learn how the bond market works or how a yield works or like people don't know, right? They just parrot stuff they see online and that's why they're so wrongsided on the yields. But so far so good on that call, especially with the bond market putting in a bottom. Okay? like you know not many people thought that was going to happen did they take that one off as well and then the last thing to deal with is the precious metals just looking for pretty much anywhere in here to start accumulating now it should be due to bottom sometime around the same time as sort of Bitcoin and oil as well it may take a little more time than what we've got going on here but I think we're roughly in the in the pocket here for where gold and silver can start to get added by yours truly so I'm just kind of waiting to see how low will it go because it kind of looks to me like especially with silver it's got this kind of puke coming and then hopefully we can just start smashing by, wait for a change in market behavior, and then start to add things in other places as well, higher beaters, ETFs, etc. But of course, we'll go through that with the level three members when we get there. We are extremely close now, though. I mean, potentially as little as 2 weeks or less, and I would say at the most, probably a month and a half. Sit tight, welcome the lower prices, and let's see what happens. I'm your boy Camel. Click here if you want to grab the indicator chart and package community quant dashboard, etc. in about 10 seconds, and I'll see you all tomorrow. Until then, cheers. Bye. Camel finance. He's the man to see. Rocking the market with his contrarian scream. Tra like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key on a bumpy ride.