Oil Explodes To $102, 10-Year Yield Nears 5% As Investors Panic: Charts Say BUY STOCKS

Oil ripping above $102 a barrel, up over 5% today alone and 30% in the last two weeks. The yields on the 10-year are spiking towards 5%, a major pivot and also a level the market will likely panic at. In addition, the S&P is selling sharply. We're seeing gold, silver, and Bitcoin also in panic mode, selling to the downside with key head and shoulder bearish patterns on gold and silver that might be on the verge of breaking, signaling a move back down to recent lows on the precious metals. Lots to go over. I'm going to break it all down in this video. The macro all the way to deep diving into the technical analysis. As always folks, my name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. And let's get right into it. So, first and foremost, look at oil today. What a rip roaring rally, up 5.33% on the day. We just crossed above $102 a barrel. If we go to the 10-minute chart, look at this. We just popped on the intraday 10-minute getting as high as $10260. Are we nearing resistance? I'm going to show you on the chart in a minute. Before we do that, let's talk about what is going on. Basically, the Houthis are getting more and more involved in the Iran conflict with the US. They've targeted Saudi Arabia more and more, striking refineries there and blocking passage now through the Red Sea. So, not only the straight of Hormuz, but now the Red Sea. All of this culminating in a big spike up in oil. Flipping back to the chart, what do we have here? Just take a look. Look at this run from this low, which was 2 weeks ago. We're now up about 29% from low to high. And that's just the short-term move, not even taking into account this move, which would put us well above 30% move in just basically the last month. And again, I want to show you that cuz it's incredible. This was August 5th. Look at that move. 38%. So again, you have a 29% move here in just the last two weeks. in the last month, a 38% move. Now, many people asking where is the next major level. The next major level is approaching at $104 a barrel in oil. That's your next point right here. It's a little bit of a pivot at this point. In addition, what we want to do is we want to look at our Fibonacci retrace tool and see what just above that could be in sight. So you're really looking at anywhere between $104 to $108 a barrel as being your next potential target. Now there is something I want to show you on the USO which is the ETF that tracks oil. Now this is going to explain something here and I'm going to tell you right now I am short crude oil. I'm short via the USO. Now I'm short because on the USO chart we're hitting a key level and I have the ability to add if we get to 104 to $108. So it's the beginnings of a accumulation phase on oil expecting oil to eventually come in and when it comes in it's going to be sharp. Now just talking about the macro this is a major play by Iran with the Houthis to get a better negotiating maneuvering position into the midterm elections. And so if you think about it logically, they're causing as much problems as possible because they know they have a window until the midterms that Trump is going to want to make a deal. The more trouble they cause, the higher oil prices go, the more maneuvering and basically the better position they are going to be in because Trump desperately wants those oil prices to come down prior to people voting here in the US. So it makes total sense, but it also gives us an end date. essentially, you know, they're going to make a deal by the midterm elections and ultimately Trump is liable to make a deal by the midterm elections to get them down. So once the midterms go, by the way, and I want to be clear on this, if no deal is reached by the midterms, then Trump has no reason to make a deal. In fact, he could escalate militarily very harshly against the Iranians. And the Iran the Iranians know this, right? Because once you pass the midterms, there's literally no elections for two years. So you could do something a major military action for two months. No one's going to re remember it in two years. It's going to be long past. People are going to focus on where oil is. So keep that in mind. And we can see here on the chart, I wanted to show you this level on the USO. Look at this beautiful trend line pivot low right here. Right through this point here, we broke down, retraced, rejected, and guess what? We're coming up to right up into this very key level on the USO, which is the ETF that I am short to be short oil. So, let's see where this goes, guys. But right now, it's been an incredible move up in oil. This has then had a major impact on the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield broke out above its previous pivot from January of 2025. We are now quickly approaching the next big pivot high at 5%. Now again, we have to monitor this. 5% should be a massive double top resistance. We saw the Treasury, by the way, coming out yesterday, Scott Bent, ahead of the Treasury, buying 6 billion in long-term bonds back, right? So, buying them back. Now, how is he doing this? He's issuing short-term, which are lower interest because they're short-term to buy longer term back. Now, the market laughed at him. All right, even at $6 billion, think about it logically. The US has $40 trillion in debt. Six billion doesn't even move the needle. It is literally a water drop in a massive bucket of water. No one even notices it. And they have to understand that it's not going to be the effective measure at yield curve control that the government wants to do. They're going to have to come out with way more in terms of buybacks, like literally half a trillion, a trillion dollars to actually move the needle substantially. Now, what could move the needle? Any sort of slowdown in the economy. If these high gas prices and high energy prices actually start to slow the US economy, then you will see yields come in just from that aspect. Now I want to 90% chance now that they will raise interest rates next week at their meeting when they released their statement on Wednesday. Now we did get PPI data this morning. The PPI data came in neutral basically in line maybe slightly better if you looked at the core month overmonth number but it wasn't enough to move the needle especially when it's against oil which is soaring to the upside dramatically. Right? So oil is basically increasing inflation in real time and therefore the Fed is being expected more and more to try to combat that to some extent to keep inflation under wraps. All right, back to the charts we go. The 10-year yield again at 4.922 uh basically near the highs of the day. We're very close, basically eight eight basis points away from 5%. Big big watch on the 5% level on the 10-year yield. So, we have oil pushing up, which is helping push up interest rates, the 10-year yield that is causing the S&P to sell. Now, before I get into the S&P, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, let's talk quickly about this on my YouTube right here. I have an exclusive uh premium service. It's just again 10 bucks a month to support me, to support the channel, to support all the people that work hard here at Verified Investing. And again, it's just 10 bucks, but it also includes many perks, including a live Q&A, at least two a month, exclusive videos, at least one to two every single week, epic discounts on verified investing. I do 50% course discounts, and up to 20% discounts on services uh at verified investing. So, even if you're thinking about doing it, you could pay for a year of the $10 a month by just using it on a quarterly um discount, let's say, on one of the services. the swing trade chart alerts. I put one out on Zcash just to give you guys a heads up on this. This was a great one. I put it out on Zcash. Literally nailed the top. If anyone trades crypto, they would have made thousands of dollars on that alert alone. All right, back to the charts we go. Let's go to the S&P 500 here. I want to discuss exactly what's going on because it is epic. Um, and believe it or not, I want to be clear on this. I'm actually bullish on the S&P. So, while most people are getting panicky over this move up in oil in the 10-year yield, I look at the market and I say, "Wait a minute. So, you're telling me the yield on the 10ear is approaching 5% and oil's uh at $102 a barrel and the S&P is only basically 3% off of its all-time highs. So, that's bullish by itself. But the chart, when we deep dive into the chart, look at this, guys. Here it is. All right. As long as we remain above this pivot line, there's a bullish bias. Now, you can see we're testing it today. So, we do need to monitor this level, this 757575 uh70 level on the S&P 500. But as long as we stay above this, I remain very bullish. And if we break below, this is the neutral zone. So, between 7570 and 7,400 is the neutral zone. If we break here, that's where trouble starts. That would be a bigger breakdown that would take us back underneath 7,000 on the S&P. But right now, very clearly, I'm actually I've actually been a buyer today of stocks. If you're in my smart money stocks and ETF service at verified.com, we've been buying stocks today. In fact, I love there's some entries on good quality names, good quality charts that I've been buying up today based on the fact that I've just talked about we are still in the bullish bias zone on the S&P 500. So, I am bullish. Granted, it could change based on where the chart closes, but right now I maintain the bullishness. Now, on the other side of the coin, take a look at this gold. Look at gold, guys. Again, gold is down today, but look at what we're looking at here. We have, again, I called this top beautifully. It was right to that high pivot from this pivot low right through there, right from this point. So, it rejected price. We then came right in to this resting point here, and that's held price. But we are down today. If this breaks, you have the head and shoulders pattern that I went over just the other day in the chart. And if you didn't watch that video, you can go back and watch it on gold. And if it breaks here, this opens a door down to 4,3900. Again, so it's imperative that gold holds the level at around 4,300. 4,300 is that level. The pattern is not a great pattern because again, it's a it's a head and shoulders. If it breaks, that's trouble. As long as it holds, it's okay for now. Silver, same thing. Take a look at this silver dumping out. Here's the same sort of pattern setup with a slightly ascending neckline. There you have it. There's your head and shoulders. If it breaks, guess where it's going? All the way back down to about 55 bucks an ounce on silver. So, this is really imperative right here. It's got to hold this level on the charts. And again, you can see basically if yields continue up, it's going to continue to put pressure on the precious metals. Now, on the other side, if yields pull back, that's where the precious metals can get a huge bid to the upside. And again, all of that is going to come down to CPI tomorrow. Okay, that's number one. But more importantly, CPI just like PPI, it's kind of become secondary because of oil. Right now, oil is number one, which then affects yields. CPI I would say would be number two or number three in that list of important factors here. Okay. Now, lastly, I did want to go over Bitcoin. Bitcoin is seeing some downside today. It is breaking a key level here, which I'm not a big fan of it breaking this level. Um, just a heads up though, I was short Bitcoin. I am no longer short. I took a small gain on my short today. Uh, I am out of that. I am still short Zcash and I'm still short uh looking at shorting other things. But right now, Bitcoin, even though it's breaking this level, it's still holding up really, really well. And I want to show you this because this is why. So, yes, you're breaking this trend line here, which connects these highs and these lows, but at the same time, you still are making a low, higher low, higher low. And so really, you could make a case here that as long as you hold, I would say this area here, even down to this low, you're still kind of potentially making bullish consolidation. Right? Here's your flag pole up, sideways consolidation, and there's your breakout to the upside potential. So again, you know, remember, sitting back in cash with Bitcoin is a way where I'm looking at it and saying, listen, I have no real good read here. Remember, for me, 75 80% success rate. If I can't see that in the chart, if the chart's not telling me that I have that edge, I'm not in the trade. And that's what I did. I took a small gain. Okay, no harm, no foul uh on the short side. We played it to the upside on the breakout. That was an awesome call. Now, I'm sitting back waiting patiently for the next highreward, lowrisk setup on Bitcoin. I'll keep you guys posted, but Bitcoin is down today. Still holding key support, just like gold and silver, by the way. So, all in all, oil is the key here. This is the key. What's going to happen? I do think there's a resolution or at least some sort of ceasefire and agreement by the midterms. And again, Iran knows they have their their window of opportunity is quickly shrinking. It has to get done before the midterms. If not, then they're in a lot of trouble because I do think Trump will react militarily heavily uh following the midterms when there's no elections to worry about. But before then, because of the need to get votes, because the Republicans want to hold on to the House and Senate, I do think there is a good chance for a deal probably favorable to Iran to get done before and if that happens, oil is going to collapse. The yields will come in and the market will rip higher. You guys have a great one. Thanks so much for tuning in. Join my Gareth's Top Squad here on YouTube or come to Verified Investing and check out where you can actually see my live portfolios. We'll talk to you soon. Take care.