OMG WHAT'S HAPPENING

Well, boys and girls, the market is going to the moon and a lot of people are wondering why. Well, the answer is obvious. It's because yesterday I said buy the freaking dip. After that Dem sweep, a lot of people were like, "Oh my gosh, the market's going to tank." No. No. The data says no. You've probably heard this from me 10 times. It is worth repeating one more time. 100% of the time going back to 1950 that is 76 years by the way after midterms the market has gone up 100% of the time after 6 months 100% of the time after 12 months the first 3 months can be a little volatile yes but the six-month move on the S&P 500 13.9% on average the average move on the NASDAQ 100 after a here over 30% positive. Maybe that's because people always sell right before the election. People start getting a little weeny and they sell right before an election cuz they're like, "Oh no, well, what's going to happen?" Let me tell you what's going to happen. Politicians are going to get into office and they're going to do 5% of what they promised. In other words, the economy can just keep humming along. And so that's what we've got to talk about. We got ADP numbers this morning. We got a real estate boom that starts today. And we got insights from ISM, PMIs, and what Hakee Jeff is up to. Let's break down all of what's going on here. First things first, home builder related stocks are popping off today. I got Home Depot up 3%. I've got Lenor up 6.4%. 4%. I got Nphase up 9%. Rocket Mortgage up 6%. Loan Depot up 11%. I And then I got Mona up 7%. Not that that has anything to do with house, although I've got exposure to some of these names over here. Even Apple's up 6%, but we'll explain the consumer in just a moment. What the heck is happening to housing stocks? Why are housing stocks going up? I'll tell you. I'm going to make this really simple for you first and then I'm going to explain the actual details of what happened with legislation yesterday. Let me make it very simple first. Anytime Democrats win, buy real estate. It is the most simple playbook. It is the most basic investment advice I could put out into the universe. Democrats win. Buy real estate. That's not personalized advice for you, okay? No guarantees. But historically, when Democrats come in and they say they're going to make things more affordable. What they do is they make things more unaffordable. And that is just the nature of the government getting involved with policy. I'm not saying that their intentions are bad. And I'm not saying they're bad people. I am saying that the actions that Democrats end up taking constrains supply, focuses building energy on new construction for affordable housing with resale or rent restrictions and you end up raising the price of rents and you end up raising the price of housing. And so by default, that is a very basic move. It's one of the reasons I love buying in really blue coastal California style areas because they're really good at preventing building and they're really good in making homes more unaffordable which sounds horrible but as an investor that is the best potential hedge that you have. But what else happened? What else happened is that markets are starting to price in the potential that Democrats are going to force Donald Trump into an Iran deal. Now, an Iran deal is going to be delayed. Okay? It's not going to come, in my opinion, as quickly as it would have if Donald Trump actually had the balls to get it done before the election, but it's likely that Democrats, once their next congressional session gets started in January, are really going to push for an Iran deal as part of getting anything done in Congress. I believe, and I made the prediction before the election, 2 days before the election, I made the prediction on Twitter. I said, "Hey," and we call it Twitter now. Again, I made the prediction that uh Donald Trump would actually have an easier time working with a pure Democratic Congress rather than Republicans and Democrats because now you're negotiating with one party rather than two. Not all Republicans get along with Trump. There are a lot of fiscally conservative Republicans that say, "No, Trump, we're not spending more money." Those people are not a problem for Trump anymore. Now he only has to deal with Democrats who like spending money. Guess who also likes spending money? Donald. They're almost a match made in heaven. And it's almost like Donnie is a closet Democrat. Anyway, housing legislation that we got Prop Three. This is California uh uh sorry, this is Florida's Prop 3. This could create a bottom in the Florida housing market. Proposition three increases the homeowners exemption. So, in other words, what you're going to get taxed on for your home. So, if you have a $300,000 home, you get a homeowner's exemption. and wipes $50,000 off of your taxable assessed value for your home. That is going up 3x in 27 and then it's going up another h 100red grand in 2028. So we're going from 50 to 150 to 250 as a homeowners exemption. It's different for investors. they don't get the homeowners exemption. But that might help put a floor under Florida's housing market, especially if at the same time we end up eventually getting a deal with Iran and oil prices come down, which markets are starting to price in. You're seeing it more and more. Brent crude almost under $100 per barrel. That's down about $16 from our high just about 10 days ago. California Proposition 1.25 25 billion for veteran homes to be built and affordable homes to be built. Remember, the more affordable homes you build, the more you constrain normal supply. More classic California, making homes more unaffordable. It's the irony of the affordable programs. You also have to be really careful. Read the fine print. If you ever buy an affordable home, read the fine print. They could screw you into ever being able to rent out those properties. And I've seen quite a few affordable homes in the county that I'm in that will sell for 20 to 30% less than non-affordable ones. This is the same damn thing, but they've got deed restrictions. So, you got to be careful on these. Then, they passed a down payment assistance plan in California called Proposition 37. Up to a 17% contribution if you contribute your 3% down on up to $1.5 million. Yeah. Households with up to 2x the median income. So, if you're in Palo Alto, the median income's through the freaking roof. Household size adjustment. So, if you're in PaloAlto with a lot of kids, you could be buying a $1.5 million home. Although, good luck getting a home for $1.5 million in Palo Alto. You'll probably be going to San Jose. You could get a nice fixer upper San Jose for $1.5 million. Maybe a three-bedroom, one bath. I don't know if you're going to fit the big family in that one, but anyway. This is not just for first-time home buyers. So, another big boon for real estate. North Carolina property tax limitation got passed by proposition to be determined what that limitation will be. The legislature now has to take over and figure it out. There was also a Tennessee level amendment that prohibited uh property tax uh property taxes at the state level for real estate in Tennessee that passed. So that kind of you know killed that potential hike risk for taxes on real estate in Tennessee. There's more than this though. There's also economic move. But I will say I'm very bullish. Okay. This morning I said I said yesterday we're going to buy the dip. This morning in our course member live stream I said we're going to buy the dip. Did we buy the dip? Yes, baby. Put our money where our mouth is because this morning we said look even though it's green buy because it's red compared to last week. Now it's not just stocks. Okay to me I'm still a real estate dude at heart. That doesn't mean I don't love stocks. That doesn't mean I don't do a lot of fundamental analysis on stocks, but literally as I started my live stream yesterday, I got a phone call and I rejected their phone call. I said, "Yo, I'm on a live stream. Like, leave me alone." I don't answer the phone. Okay. Anyway, they replied, "No worries. Seller signed off on your offer. Sorry it took a little longer. The daughter holds the power of attorney for her dad. She needed to talk to the siblings so there weren't any misunderstandings. Here's a copy of the contract. Signed off." I clicked on the contract. Good to go. I said, "Exciting. Can't wait to close it with y'all." And here's the attached file. So, here you go. Pretty pretty juiced up, baby. We'll take it. So, we are also buying the dip, both, you know, stocks and real estate. We're a big fan of this, but we think this could be a turning point for real estate markets across the country, this Democratic sweep here. So, very bullish. Now, what else is going on? Well, what else is going on is we just got the ISM and PMIs. What do those tell us? Well, those tell us that the economy is actually doing pretty freaking decently. If you take a look over here at the ISM uh services, I'm sorry, this is the PMI services report. Expansion territory a little lower than September, but remained in expansion uh and the employment index expanded for the second month in a row. We'll talk ADP in just a moment. If you go on over here to the S&P PMIs, you could over here see that activity in new business has raised uh rised steadily. Employment growth has been sustained. Incoming new business inflows are rising sharply amid amid reports of positive market demand by companies unable to meet the backlog of demand. Present capacity insufficient to keep up with the work. Now in fairness, average prices had continued to rise, though not as fast as they had risen in October. That could potenti September. Maybe that'll give the Fed some reason to say, "All right, maybe we should be careful about hiking. You know, a lot of this is oil price dependent since oil prices have come down since last month." But you can see here is sort of the chart of business activity. Uh that's GDP. Here's the chart of business activity. We can see a little bit down from last month, but still very good business activity. You draw this line over here, you've got a peak here, you know, maybe 5 months ago, and then a peak uh back here. Actually, this is more like a year ago. Yeah, that takes you back about a year and a half. And then that takes you back about 3 years. So, four years almost. So, you're actually doing pretty well on activity for business activity, both uh ISMs and the S&P. But it's not just that. If you jump on over and then we'll look at who's suffering as well because there are definitely some people suffering. But if you look at the Atlanta Fed real GDP now index, we're at 3.7% over here. That is coming up as more data is coming in. So really positive the boom for the economy. But in hello in addition to that, we got the uh ADP report this morning. The ADP employment report was fantastic. I hate to say it because I know a lot of people were going to be doomers on this, but also I believe this more than the government data. I think the government data is partly rigged right now. What do we got over here? Take a look at this. 86,000 jobs added. The expectation was 67,000. Now, we did have a -4,000 revision, but we beat by 19,000, so who cares? So, in other words, the prior month got revised down 4K. But this is great. on a weekly basis. This puts us at 21.5,000 jobs. That's really good. Weekly basis before that in the prior month also 20 oh well they're both at 86k now. Prior was 86. This is 86. Yeah. So pretty stable. 21.5,000 jobs on a weekly. Hiring showed solid growth for the second month. There are two areas that are getting hit. The two areas that are getting hit are information services and professional business services. Disney's laying off. Microsoft is doing buyouts. You know, these are AI related enhancements that are ultimately likely to increase GDP. Uh, but people need to find new jobs sooner rather than later. And ADP argues that people are now finally, at least per ADP, getting lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher pay by switching jobs. Now, not every report agrees with that. There was a report we got last week that suggested and this was from uh uh this was from Andrea Horowitz that suggested less than fewer than 50% of people are getting more pay by switching jobs right now. So you're at a little bit of a coin toss right now and that's lower than history but ADP is still saying hey in our view people are able to switch jobs and make more money. So, you know, six of one, half dozen of the other, but the Jolts report did indicate an increase in the quits rate, which suggests the labor market is decent, at least to some extent. Now, the economy is not booming for everyone. The economist does a very good point here. They they say that basically lower income renters are getting screwed. So, people who don't own homes are having more problems. That they're uh that lower income tenants are more likely to miss payments. Knock on wood. We're not seeing that with our tenants. Uh but they're saying broadly uh their tenants are increasingly missing payments, relying on short-term uh financing. Maybe this is not a real estate recession. Maybe this is a renters's recession. A quarter had not paid their bills. Renters tend to be younger, poorer, and less educated. I This is why I'm such a big fan of people buying a home. I think it's a game changer for people. I'll never grant Cardone you and tell you don't buy a home, you know, invest with me. I think that's scummy bull crap advice, but you know, Cardone and scummy. I'm sorry. I don't want to sound redundant here, but anyway, income in 2025, uh, median household income for tenants was $57,000 in 2025. Median income for tenants or for homeowners was 103,000. And they build up more wealth. I mean, people could say what they want about, "Oh, yeah, but you got to you got to pay to fix your roof. Ah, suck my wiener. You're going to make more money over time owning real estate than you are being a tenant." It's just a fact. It is a statistical reality. You could talk yourself blue in the face trying to convince yourself not to buy real estate and then stay broke. Uh, anyway, so that's the data at least coming out from the Economist. That's the data coming out from ADP. Uh, that's the data from ISMs. That's the data from PMIs. The economy is doing well. The labor market's doing well. Now, I understand a lot of people are concerned about data centers. Yeah, I know SpaceX and Tesla are coming down a little bit. So, here's my take on these guys. Okay, Tesla is down 2%. SpaceX is down 2%. So, first of all, Tesla is probably even though Tesla's valuation on its own is overvalued. If you combine Tesla and SpaceX, they're actually a good deal. SpaceX is probably going to pay the premium for Tesla, which ironically makes Tesla a better buy than SpaceX right now for if the acquisition goes through. We don't know if it will. We just think it might. If it does, then the combined entity value is actually decently priced for SpaceX and Tesla. Yes, they're going to have to borrow a lot of money to build out their data centers. Yes, people are concerned that, you know, oh my gosh, Taler Rico and Henosa are going to kill the opportunity of data center buildouts in Texas. You really think the Texans with all that damn flat land they have don't want more construction in Texas? It's These data centers are going to get built. This is a nonsensical fear. Campaigning on we're going to stop data centers, we're going to leave it to the local government is a fantastic thing for senators and governors to do. And then the local governments are going to go "Well do we want the data center or do we want Louisiana to get the data center?" Okay, Elon Musk just did the Louisiana purchase. He got lots of acreage in Louisiana. What do you think Texas gives us? Texas is going to go, "Well, let's let him build it in Texas. It's going to get built." Whether it gets built in Texas or it gets built in Louisiana, it's retardation to think it's not going to get built. Super microcomputers. We analyzed this this morning in the course member liveream. Super micro computer. Oh, I totally forgot. By the way, I apologize. Before I talk about Super Micro, I need to remind you that this video is brought to you by Cali paid sponsor of my startup Reinvest. That means when we get more money because you sign up using this link, it's not going into my pocket to burn on, you know, whatever. It goes into Reinvest. And what does Reinvest do? Reinvest reinvest its tendies into assets, babies. Be a little bit into stocks, could be a lot into real estate, but we reinvest, baby. So, when we say buy the dip, we buy the dip. Anyway, go to couchy.com/r/mec. Get $25 when you sign up for Cali and make your first trade. Use code meet when you sign up or scan this QR code. Anyway, Bloomberg Intelligence tells us and we'll get the super micro. The data center capex will not slow down. It may just relocate. It will not slow down. I completely agree. you buy the dip on this nonsense. Hardware is a bargain right now. Now, super micro computers this morning. I don't want to pull all of this up, but this was the useful line that is worth sharing. So, we went through all of this this morning in the course member live stream and this one line was very interesting. Take a look at this. While the US remains the largest market for large-scale data centers, we are seeing growth momentum in other regions as large customers expand globally and governments and enterprises plan to fund an significant AI data centers in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In the quarter, one large data center customer represented 44% of revenue. Okay, in other words, there is some concentration risk. But the point is, the boom that we're seeing in US data centers is literally just getting started for the rest of the world, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, bigly goodly. Now, yes, are there fears about the 13 gawatt? Yes, that's Texas. But Morgan Stanley also tells us that consumer stocks do really well if Democrats sweep because there are going to be fewer cuts to things like Medicaid or other social service programs like SNAP. That means more consumption, more consumer spend, and a greater GDP outlook. What do we have for some consumer stocks? Pelaton up 5% today. Etsy up 8% today. How about Dave and Busters? 9% today. How about Red Robin Gourmet Burgers? 2% today. How about the Cheesecake Factory? 4% today. See where I'm going with this? Enthusiasm about more spending, not about less spending. More enablement of the real estate market, more enablement of the consumer, and the data center slowdown. Fake news. Don't buy into it. Buy the dip. This is a good thing. Don't buy in LA though because Nidya and Karen Bass are cooped up. But forget about that for a moment. Now, what about an Iran deal? Obviously, there should have been motivation of Donald Trump to do an Iran deal before the election because that was his one chance to actually win anything. If there was an Iran deal, like I said before uh October 28th, then we would have seen Republicans probably take the Senate because gas prices would have plummeted. Donald Trump didn't realize that. Donald Trump made an oopsy dupes. Donald Trump ended up saying, "Oh, I didn't realize people cared about gas that much. Oh, darn. I guess they do care about Iran. It probably did have an effect." Yeah, we had regime change in Texas before we had regime change in Iran. Thanks, Donald. Now, unfortunately, the pressure to make a deal is lower. When you look at some of the Cali markets on this, what you'll actually find is that the odds of making a deal, let's see, this is going to be Iran nuclear deal. The odds of making an Iran nuclear deal are going up in the long term, but on the shorter term, they're kind of stable to down. So, in other words, the odds of getting a Iran nuclear deal before 2028 or 2029 are rising as people think the Democrats will force it, but the odds of getting a deal before March 1st, 2027 kind of stuck in the mud because the motivation to get a deal done sooner now down. Small other news, House hack uh or reinvest. We literally just got our MLO license, which is kind of cool. We don't really know what we want to do with that yet, but it creates optionality because my opinion is in the long term, you know, by like the 2030s, interest rates are going to plummet and there's going to be a lot of money to be made in loan brokering. Like I don't like lending out my own money, but I think there's going to be a lot of money to be made in loan brokering. And so, uh, literally just yesterday, we got, uh, this applied. There's our MLO license endorsement. That's a mortgage loan originator license. And uh it doesn't actually put a date on it on this, but it did come through just yesterday. Oh, that's funny. They call it a touring test. If you go do the capture, they call it at the top the touring test. That's funny. Um remember, you could get uh my daily digest email as well where I talk a little bit about price targets and and expectations uh for free by going to meet.com/digest. But anyway, I find this very exciting and I think now is the time to build. It's the time to build businesses. It's the time to take advantage of what is really kind of a boommy market. Uh oh yeah, take a look at this. It actually looks like they posted it here. So, I think I got the email yesterday morning. It actually looks like they approved us November 2nd. It says, which they did say in October, we're going to improve approve you in November. I wasn't expecting it to be like the second day of November, but it's kind of cool. It's just more that we are building with House Hack aka Reinvest, baby. Woo! Big fan. I I tweeted this, too. I tweeted I'm like, "Look, now's the time to get licenses that help you do things." I'm actually going to post a Hormosi video later just sort of like reacting to 40 minutes of it, and I I'll have some kind of some insights on that, which I think is really fun. But uh yeah, if you follow me at Realme Kevin Heaven, sometimes I'll I'll post stuff about this. And what I said yesterday was now is the time to get licensed or certified really in in anything. And take a look at this. Uh I always tell aspiring entrepreneurs, get licenses that let you do things even if you have no plans for those licenses right now. The optionality that a real estate license, a lending license, a pilot's license, or his designation, like being an accountant or a lawyer or financial adviser gets you creates significant optionality. Remember what they say about luck? Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. You like that video? Check this one out. I think you're going to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.