Stock Investors - October Will Be The Most Chaotic Month Of 2026

Well, stock investors, October is finally here, and man oh man, was September a crazy month. From earnings reports to geopolitical tensions to macroeconomic news and price action. I mean, it was a full-blown roller coaster from start to finish. From September 1st to September 30th, it was all gas, no breaks. And if I'm going to be honest with you all, I think October is shaping out and setting up to be very, very similar. And so because of this, what I wanted to do for you all in today's video is do like a recap plus overview plus planning video in which we essentially recap what happened in September, overview what's coming in October, and talk about my current plans. You know, put a plan in place for how I'm operating in my own public portfolio as a result of everything that we're going to recap and that we're going to overview today. And the goal is that we head into October with a clear vision of what happened in the last month and a clear idea of what we can expect in the next month. Okay, so that's what I have for you all today. Um, I hope you guys have really been enjoying all of the content recently. I've been trying to do my best to keep you updated every single day with all of these moving pieces, whether it's a big piece of Iran news, a big piece of macroeconomic news, the FOMC, inflation, big earnings reports, whatever it may be. I'm trying to keep you guys updated on a daily basis. So, if you have been enjoying it always, you can let me know by smashing that like button, folks. But, let's go ahead and let's jump straight on in. So, first and foremost, to recap, let's talk about what happened in September. Because look, September is historically a bad month in general, and we knew that going in. I actually made a video for you all, and I can't remember what I titled it, but it was something along the lines of stock investors prepare for a red month or something like that. And essentially what I did in that get ready for the month video was walk you through the fact that historically September is the worst month of the year for the S&P S&P 500 with an average return of minus0.7%. This is one of the only months that more than 50% of the time will end in the red. And so I told you all it doesn't guarantee that September is going to be a bad month, but just prepare for a red month in general. But interestingly enough, although it was a red month, it wasn't as bad as we expected. You know, I didn't think that September was going to be a crazy crash month. But I definitely thought that there was going to be volatility. That could lead September to be a bit of an ugly month, especially considering everything that was going on. We're going into September with oil prices climbing, bond yields climbing, the Fed about to hike interest rates. I mean, everything that could put pressure on the market was putting pressure on the market, and it it kind of was red. But realistically, although 75% of stocks in the S&P 500 fell, the index itself only fell about.3%. Matter of fact, if we just go look real quick at the S&P 500, and we just look at the last one month performance, right, which I guess is a little bit outdated because we're, you know, 2 days into the the the month right now, what you can see is that the S&P 500 is majorly flat over the last uh over the last month. Now, that may be a little bit skewed. That may be a little bit skewed. And the reason why I say that is because if you actually look at an equal waiting of the S&P 500 for the last month, it's definitely not looking great for a lot of different industries, right? You had healthcare majorly down, consumer defensive, consumer cyclical, financial, and many of the different stocks in these different classes or these different niches and subsectors were down 5 10 15% over the last month. But because we saw such a strong performance from some of the biggest and most important players in the market and in the world, it kind of carried a lot of the weight, right? You see the AI sector performed actually pretty decent. You had hyperscalers holding up and kind of carrying their own weight. If we look at it just like this, I mean what you can see is that over the last one month performance, Apple was up, Google's up, Microsoft was up, Nvidia was really up and these are the largest companies in the world, right? So they're going to kind of balance it out a bit to where although the majority of the S&P 500 is getting cooked that the the big dogs are holding up well. And so we end up in a month like we just had to where yeah, I mean it wasn't a great month, don't get me wrong, but it surely wasn't a terrible month and honestly better than I expected it to be, which felt pretty dang on good. Now, the reason as to why this was the case, in my opinion, was because we had a good balance between like bad news and good news. So, every time we got a piece of bad news, there was seemingly a piece of good news that kind of balanced out a little bit so that these bigger players could still perform decently well. Let me let me kind of show you what I mean. So, the bad news, let's let's just start with the bad news. Then I'll talk to you about the good news in a second. We had bond yields pushing to 19-year highs, which obviously is extremely problematic for any market, not just the stock market. We're talking the stock market, the crypto market, in some ways the precious metals market, the foreign exchange market, the economy in general. Bond yields climbing make everything more complicated. You know what I mean? And so, we saw that happening. We saw the Federal Reserve kick off its rate hike cycle, which is something that, you know, the market had been pricing in for the majority of the year, but was still a bit nervous about. We also saw the Bank of Japan kick off its own interest rate hike cycle of some nature in which they went from 1% to 1.25% putting a bit of fear on the market that some sort of um unwind of the Japanese carry trade could be on the way. In addition to that, we saw the Iran uncertainty picking up like crazy as oil price spiked due to new Houthi attacks over in um the Red Sea and things of that nature. Right? So basically on all fronts, we had the stock market getting kind of picked on a little bit, getting bullied around, getting swirled in the bathroom toilet, just not great. But on the flip side of that, we were getting good news throughout the month. As all of that was happening, we were seeing good news that was having a strong impact on some of our major players. Micron beat earnings, Costco beat earnings, we had uh Broadcom beat earnings, Adobe, Oracle, I mean some very large companies. What was AutoZone in September? I think AutoZone was in September as well. They beat earnings. So, not the biggest companies in the world except for Micron, but very important players in the world beating earnings and holding the fort producing really strong metrics. Right. In addition to that, as we went into the later half of the month, although yes, the Federal Reserve did hike interest rates in the middle of the month towards the end of the month, inflation came in cooler than expected. You guys saw just a couple days ago, the PCE data that we got was better than expected. Were there some nuances? Yes. Did they recalculate the way that PCE data is, you know, kind of measured? Yes. Did all of those things happen? Sure. At the end of the day, PCE data is getting closer and closer to the 2% target than the market was expecting, and therefore that is going to be responded or received in a bit of a positive way, right? In addition to that, when it comes to just the rate hikes in general, we got that band-aid ripped off. And I know some people may say, "Well, Tyler, wait, what? You just said a quote unquote bad thing that happened was the Fed kicking off its interest rate hike cycle. Now you're saying them doing it is a good thing." No. What I mean is that the fact that it's just finally happening is a good thing. You see, the market, in my opinion, performs the worst when it's anticipating something, when it's worried about something. Oh my god, what's going to happen when Japan finally hikes interest rates. It's that sort of concern, it's that sort of fear that'll have the market performing negatively for weeks and months at a time. Historically though, when it just happens, when you just get it over with, the market will typically respond in a positive way and can actually produce better gains than you would expect. Often times, like a sell the rumor, buy the news event happens for negative things. And I think that's what we've seen this month from the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. It's a part of the reason as to why if you look at the last hikes that have happened over the last 40 years, nine or 10 different examples, you on average will see the market performing in a positive manner. You will have a positive return during the period from your very first interest rate hike to your very last interest rate hike because the band-aid is just getting ripped off and it's just happening. You know what I mean? So all in all, yes, we did get some negatives, and the negatives obviously outweighed the positive this month, but it was enough to create not a catastrophic month, just a slightly negative month. And so all in all, the way that I see it, I'm like, yeah, September honestly wasn't that dang on bad. Yeah, we saw a little bit of a pullback from some things, but we also saw some decent performance from other things. The AI market held up, earnings came in pretty solid, and September seemed to go decently well. And I think there's a lesson in that, right? You remember as we were heading into September, I told you all I'm preparing for September to be a bad month because September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500. But what I'm not doing right now is just selling everything that I have in my portfolio because September might be bad. My answer was, what if it's not? What if September goes better than you expect it to do and you sold it just because everyone convinced you it was going to be a bad month? Just because sometimes it's a bad month. No, I'm going to prepare for a bad month just in case it happens. which means I'm going to set my buy orders in, trim down my portfolio, cut out like the excess, and focus on my strong conviction plays, but I'm just going to prepare to accumulate in a bad month, not sell because I'm scared of one. And the, you know, that that worked out, you know, that worked out. You look at the portfolio and a lot of the positions that we, you know, kind of consolidated down to are looking pretty solid. You know, the Robin Hood position, for example, the Robin Hood position is one of the ones that's currently up about 23%. The Microsoft position, very small position, nothing crazy, but it's up 33%. You look at the VO position, still holding up well even as it's kind of cooled down a bit, up about $77,000, a 22% return, you know, like it's held up pretty dang on well, and the month of September was a bit of a surpriser for me. But there's a lesson in that. Don't just, you know, assume something's going to be just because you think it's going to be. No, like prepare for it. You you get what I'm saying? I'm not going to harp on this too long, but I think you get the point. So all in all September although definitely saw some pain in some places held up by a lot of the AI companies your hyperscalers you know giving us some pretty solid returns giving giving us some pretty solid returns. Now heading into October now that we've kind of talked about what happened in September let's talk about what's coming in October because I'm going to be honest it's about to get real juicy. It's about to get real juicy. We're going into quarter four. Quarter four is one of the more volatile um quarters that there is in the market. historically one of the best performing quarters in the market, if not the best. And I think things are about to really heat up. From earnings to some of the news and the catalysts that are on the horizon, I think things are about to heat up. Let me show you. So, there's four major things that I'm watching out for heading into October that I think are going to be incredibly impactful on the market. First, Q3 earning season is going to be big. Okay? So, even just the earnings reports that we're getting in October are going to be massive. For example, on October 13th, we have JP Morgan and the big banks. On October 21st, we have Tesla. On October 28th, we have Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta all in the same day. Then the next day, we have Apple and Amazon. So those same companies that kind of held the market a float in some capacity in the month of September are all going to get tested. They're all going to get tested. Those earnings reports are remember those earnings reports are going to talk about capex. It's crazy that we're already back here. Like it's crazy that we're already back to another one of these where we're going to find out about capex and see how they respond and all that sort of stuff. I feel like this just happened. I feel like we just went through this and now it's already coming back up this month. Okay, so big earnings coming up. We have an FOMC meeting on the 27th and the 28th. So guess what? On the same day, the same freaking day that we have Microsoft and Alphabet and Meta and Apple and Amazon in that same little span, we also have an FOMC meeting approaching, too. Dude, it's going to be wild. I'm going to have my blood pressure on the 27th, 28th, and 29th is going to be through the roof. It's going to be absolutely nuts. Now, of course, leading up to that jobs data or sorry, leading up to the FOMC meeting, we have jobs and inflation data in the middle of the month. That's going to tell the market how it feels about the next um Fed uh the next FOMC meeting and whether or not it believes the Fed is going to hike rates. What we can see is that right now going into the month of October, about 26 days out, there's only a 75% chance or sorry, there's only a 25% chance that the Fed hikes rates. a 75% chance that they don't and they maintain the target range between 375 and 400. Well, when we get all this data, jobs and inflation, guess what's going to happen? These odds are going to shift around. And as these odds shift around of a Fed hike, that's going to have an impact on the market. You remember in September leading into the meeting when like Christopher Waller would say something that made it sound like they weren't going to hike rates, the market respond positively. And then when someone would say something negative that sounded like they were going to hike rates, the market would respond negatively. We get to deal with that all month long. All month long over the next 26 freaking days. And in addition to all of that, aiming outside of October, going into November, we're going to have midterms approaching. And every time there's midterms, based on how midterm, you know, kind of polling and pre-elections are going, you'll always see volatility in the stock market as people position for some sort of new power control in the government. I mean, dude, there's just stuff all month long. There's stuff all month long. And I believe what that's going to create is anxiety. It's going to create nerves and it is going to create a market that starts to kind of pop around all over the dangle place. And that is why I'm expecting real volatility going into the month of October. Especially when you consider what this what the stock market is doing from a technical perspective right now. So if we look at the S&P 500 chart, what's happening right now is a big decision. There's actually a big decision happening on the charts heading into October. And that big decision is whether or not the S&P 500 can successfully complete this back test. So, do you see how we had a major zone of resistance in the month of June, the month of, you know, June right here again, and then going into July, all this resistance in this gray box? Well, as we broke above that gray box, we've now come back down to it and we're trying to essentially flip that resistance, all of this selling pressure, and turn it into support. We're trying to turn it into buying pressure. take this sellers liquidity zone, flip it into a buyer liquidity zone, and use this to continue upwards. So, the question that's going to be answered this month by all of these catalyst, right, by all of these things that we're watching is whether or not the spy is capable of sustaining support here and using it to continue upwards on its trajectory or if it's going to start to capitulate through it and start breaking through some of the macro structure that it's been creating all year long. That's a big what if. I mean, that's a big decision here. I think it's more more I mean super well within reason that if we see the S&P 500 maintain support here let's say you know comes back up breaks through this Fibonacci golden zone and goes for a run I mean we could be looking at the spy pushing between $820 to $799 guys for the spy from where we are now that's potentially 5 to 8% 5 to 7 and a half% to the top side that's a huge move for the whole market right not to say it would happen in one month but just trajectory however if we see it coming back down through this key support zone well guess what now you're looking at a spy probably revisiting some of these close. Now you're talking about a spy coming between 729 and 716. That's potentially 4 to 6% to the downside. What happens right here is going to move the entire market. Support held up, support breaks down. And I believe these catalysts again are going to contribute to that decision. Hence why I believe this is a very important month, a very volatile month, one that we need to be very prepared for. Okay. So with that in mind, you know, what do we do? That's a question that a lot of people have is like, "What do we do? How do you respond to this sort of pending month where there's a lot of volatility and there's a major decision being made?" The best thing to do, don't try to guess what's going to happen. Take this advice. Don't try to guess what's going to happen. Just prepare for both scenarios. There's three different There's only three ways this can go. Just prepare for all three of them. Let me show you. Scenario number one is we see the S&P 500 start to break down as a result of these catalysts. Scenario number two is that the S&P 500 goes sideways. Scenario number three is that it breaks up. So rather than trying to guess which direction this is going to go, which is kind of pointless right now because this is a bit of a coin flip from a technical perspective and literally anything could happen. Dude, just prepare for all three of them. This is how I'm doing it. If we see the spy start breaking down, I've set bottom side accumulation zones between 729 and 717. And this is where I would start accumulating, not only just the spy, but my individual positions. I would be careful. I would be careful because if we fall through this zone, things can get really ugly from there. and you're probably looking at the spy coming all the way down to its bottom side golden zone, which is 680 to 660 bucks. But even in the worst case scenario that that happens, I'm just going to accumulate a lot down there. So essentially what I'm saying is if it breaks down, I have my buy zones down here first between 729 and 716, then between 680 and 657. And I'm just going to do some buying. Go against the grain. Buy there. That's what I'm doing. Okay. If we see the spy continue to go sideways, I'm just going to continue to slowly DCA just like I've been doing all month, I'm just going to slowly average my way in, not doing anything crazy, not making any big sudden moves, just slowly building into my position because there is a world in which we do rally off of this and obviously I want to get exposed to that and just get my time in the market, right? So just slowly dollar cost averaging into my core strong positions, you know, building up my bag of SoFi, building up my bag of Amazon or Google or the S&P 500, being a little bit careful of course with my hyperscalers, knowing that earnings is at the end of the month. But yeah, just in general, you know, getting my exposure to these different positions and then from there, you know, if we end up seeing the market go and it starts to pump, I don't have to do anything. I don't have to do anything, right? I don't need to try to force any purchases. I don't need to sell everything. I can just let this bad boy ride to the top side, ride it up to around 788 to 799 and just let my unrealized gains roll in. That'll be fantastic. It'll put the portfolio steadily over $100,000 in in total unrealized profits. We've popped above $100,000 a couple times, but we've struggled to stay above it. Sitting at $95,000. Keep in mind, some of those gains are from when I was trading back in, you know, 2020 and 2021 in this public account on my other YouTube channel. But, you know, even in the last year, that could put us at, you know, $70,000 in gains or something like that. So, nonetheless, my my thought process is very very simple. If it keeps going sideways, slowly accumulate. If it rolls over, set my buy zones and I'm going to buy hard. I'm going to really deploy cash down there. And then if it pumps, great. I can just let these purchases that I've done recently lead to some gains. No problem. You see how that's so much more of a less stressful way to approach the market than, well, I need to figure out what it's going to do, then I need to put a plan in place for that thing specifically. It's like, dude, what if you're wrong? It's like in a moment like this where it's a 50/50, put a plan in place for every outcome and just wait for the outcome to happen. You know what I mean? I think that's the best thing to do. Especially with all the chaos of headlines and earnings and news, it's just easier in my opinion to take this approach. So, that's my game plan. That's what I'm going to be doing. Keeping it very cool, keeping it very simple. You guys know that every time that I do my purchases, by the way, I do post them over in the Discord. The Discord is linked down below. As you can see, I just did some purchases earlier today on SoFi, Amazon, Google. I told them what to watch from Micron. I will show you guys in this voice note right here. I told you all you need to watch this very closely from Micron today. I was talking about the fact that it was back testing that $1,25 zone. And if it held it successfully, I thought it was going to push up towards the top of the golden zone. If we actually look at what Micron's done since I made that post, you can see it bounced off of that exact level and is heading right up towards the top side of that golden zone. So, if you do want some of the alpha folks, if you want to see the things that I'm seeing, the things that I'm buying, the things that I'm selling in the stock market and in the crypto market, I do have it linked down below. This Discord is attached to what is called TH Capital. When you join TH Capital, you get access to the Discord like I just showed you, which is where all of the things I'm buying and selling are, but you also get access to all the courses. You get access to the technical analysis course. You get access to the fundamental analysis course. TA course is 4 hours long. Fundamental analysis course is 4 hours long. You get access to the portfolio building course, 2 hours long. the stock investing for beginners course almost an hour long. You get access to the swing trading course which is going to be about 4 hours long. I mean dude there's so much stuff there and the seminars there's so much. So make sure to check that out. The link to this will be down below if that is something that is interesting to you. Make sure to check it out. But all in all, as I mentioned before, I hope you guys have been enjoying all the content recently. Been trying to do my best to keep you all updated and we're going to keep the ball rolling, baby. I'll see you all in the next one. Peace out everybody.