Stock Rebound led by Tech Sector CNBC+ Technical Analysis (11/06)

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome [music] back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips. I'm going to pull up the charts and [music] dive into the technicals and see if the price action >> Carl Banks. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wner. Front and center of this hour, the latest on this tech. Yes, it's trying to rebound today. Many [music] questions though still remain, which means we discuss and debate all of that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Jenny Harrington, Jim Leenthal, Kevin Simpson, and Brian Bellski. All right, let's check the market. That's what it looks like right now. So, the NASDAQ's looks great again. It was down so much yesterday that it's still working hard to get a good portion of that back. Everything is green at the moment. It was the worst day for the socks, the semiconductor index, since the very early days of the CO outbreak. to give you some perspective. And I thought Charles Schwab today had some more perspective that was noteworthy and I think worthy of a deeper conversation. They point out in midJune the Philly semiconductor index was up by 106.6% year to date. That was mid June. That gain has now been cut to 27.2. That shows you how much damage has been done within the chips. Yesterday alone, Micron AMD down more than 17% doubledigit losses almost across the board. Nvidia down 9 12%. It's negative on the year. At least it did go negative yesterday. Farmer Jim, I'm going to go to you first. Uh because you had tried to remain negative. I mean positive. Excuse me. Freudian slip. It's a Freudian slip. I was thinking of his I was thinking of his flinches >> and it made me think of was he gonna [snorts] flinch again. >> Um, no. Seriously. Yeah. No. No. What What are you thinking? I knew something was wacky when when Jenny's waving to people who are scouts. They're Boy Scouts. I know if you noticed though, we're on the wide shot though. So, like a whole bunch of scouts going by. And I have a soft spot in my heart for >> I knew something was wacky when Jenny turned bullish last week. But at any rate, yeah, you were pretty bullish. We can read back the tape, but I want to hear from Chararma Jim first. Let's try to cut through a lot of the uncertainty that's out there. >> Um, couple things went on yesterday. First off, there were legitimate concerns. I'm not going to call them fears, but concerns about what new Democratic governors and state legislatures will do to slow down the AI data center buildout. And they will slow it down. I think it's highly unlikely that they're going to stop it because doing so will certainly turn the US economy into a recession, result in tremendous job losses and a decimation of the tax bases for these newly elected politicians. So, I don't think stopping it is what we're talking about. We're talking about slowing it down, which frankly cures the prisoners dilemma that many of these hyperscalers have been in for many months of are they going to be Scott the first ones to flinch in terms of capital spending. Now, they don't have to be labeled with that. The politicians will do it for them. Now, that's number one. That's a legitimate concern, but I actually think it's a positive. I'm not alone in saying that. But what happened yesterday was more than that. On the desk, we've talked about this many times over the past few weeks. Scott, you've made references to this, the deleveraging that was going on, particularly in the highly levered long short hedge fund space. And yesterday, the truth came out and it was ugly. A lot of really well-known names were down big in October continuing into November and they at the least unwound their positions which resulted in a deluge of selling and in some cases they actually shuttered pods or the entire firm. Um that is what contributed a lot to yesterday. Now I am not saying that that's it and it's over. But what I am saying is the positives of strong labor markets, strong economic [clears throat] growth, strong profit growth are likely to propel the markets higher after we get through a week or two of this post election, post delevering volatility. So I think it's interesting you chose in large respects to focus on the hyperscalers >> in your analysis of what the data center backlash and the results of the midterms will mean when the market is clearly focused on other areas that are more acute to the question itself >> like the semis right >> and the [snorts] power names. >> Yes. are and you don't think that what's happening there makes some degree of sense if you're going to >> Oh, I think it does make sense. I I think I think what we saw and what you alluded to with the Charles Schwab, I think that was who made it the comment that the socks was up 100% plus through June and now is only up 27%. The market was sniffing this out well in advance. I mean yes yesterday's declines in Micron in Nvidia were breathtaking certainly but they were and may be the final throws of a correction more than a correction a bare market in those semiconductors that now prices them appropriately for earnings that may well have to come down in the next couple of years given a slowdown in the AI buildout but these valuations now we're looking at Nvidia I believe 14 times forward earnings I believe Michael four times earnings now maybe these earnings things are going to come down maybe. Okay. But these are multiples that are now expressing sentiment that is simply in my opinion far too negative. >> So Bellski um there are so many different people opining on the destruction that took place yesterday. Um Chris Harvey CIBC selloff's not over yet says volumes weren't elevated enough, believe it or not. Right. Yesterday was pretty brutal. He said it still wasn't enough. Um Mike Wilson has been saying look the market needed to get through a clearing event, have sort of one more meaningful pullback and then that could be the end of the correction. He says this is likely the final stages of that. There was an interesting UBS note >> sort of throwing cold water on the the rebound that we were seeing in the futures this morning. Yep. >> Really pointing out to some of the deleveraging that still needed to take place particularly from quant funds who were still highly exposed to this trade which got so overwhelmingly crowded on many different levels that there was still some more to work through. How how do you feel about where we are right now relative to what we witnessed yesterday? >> I think the Mike Wilson note is brilliant. It's brilliant in terms of the catchdown because I really think that's what's happening. Per Jim's point and talking about the indices and then following back on the Schwab comment, it's really interesting. October was a bad month. Some of these names are already starting to break in October. We should not be surprised that you saw the you saw the roller coaster. You're looking over the edge. And oh by the way, yesterday was this on the way down. So is it enough yesterday? If you take a look at upside versus downside volume, downside volume was 5 to one. Usually on these types of days, you need like an 8 or 10 to one. And so I hate it when people lose money. Today would be I would not be surprised quite frankly if the if the market turns negative on a Friday. Um, I don't want it to I don't want to pe have people lose money, but I think we're closer to the wash out per uh Mike Wilson's comment in terms of the index cash down. >> Okay. How how about this? Cuz I I've been thinking a lot about this. If you look at the numbers from the semi-pullback, Kev, on the way up, you had all these comparisons of 2000. It's too the market's gone too too parabolic. There were some moves that were just insane. Okay, people looked at straight up and to the right for the microns and the Marll's and there were so many of them before they went through this period of pullback. What if we actually did have our 2000 already but we had it in the places that were more reasonably suspect and vulnerable to a 2000 like pullback. So chips aren't down 80% like the NASDAQ went 2000, but there are names that are 50 and 60% off of their highs. The market's already cleared out a lot of the suspect stocks, if you will. Marll's almost 60% off of its high. Lamb Research is 55. Pterodine's 56. KLA is 56. Applied Materials is 56. You love Micron. It's 45% off of its high. Yet what looked like a house of cards, so to speak, in 99 going into 2000 because a lot of stocks went up undeservingly because they didn't have any earnings. Some of them barely had any revenues. The pillars of this house, the hyperscalers, the mega caps, do they look bad? To me, they don't look bad. And I think the trade on Wednesday was a little bit more accurate than the trade we saw yesterday. Yeah, >> it was the halves and the have nots. So, if you look at companies like all the ones that you just mentioned, which are more cyclical in nature and maybe this cycle was longer and bigger, but I'm not sure that it's necessarily over, but the idea that we've seen a big part of the correction already take place is absolutely valid. and and the house of cards in the 90s compared to these companies are completely different from the standpoint of some of these companies are just so catch cash rich. You mentioned Micron. It was up 100%. It's down 45 from its highs. Sure, it could go lower, but it's probably not going to go to zero. I say the biggest companies now at the forefront of this revolution are in in an entirely different position than the biggest companies then were at that revolution >> a thousand%. And here's why to the other end of the spectrum for the have nots the companies that are dependent upon capital markets right now. They're the ones that suffered on Wednesday. They continued to suffer yesterday. It's not just where interest rates are. It's what their price is to or their cost of capital is to the market. So, I look at the differences of 99 and I sat in the same chair all throughout the 90s as I as I've done through this episode and I think that the confidence that I have in the big companies is is far greater than anything I had in any company in the late '9s. They're so cash flow rich that they can support anything in the capital markets, but more importantly, it can probably survive anything that may come from an administration, whether that be a municipality, a state, or from Washington. So these big companies, these highquality names, that's where I'd want to be. The more speculative, the smaller companies, those that are more sketchy, they probably have more room to fall. >> Some are going to look, Jenny, and say that, you know, the the hyperscalers may be having their there maybe a 96 97, but these other areas so acute to the infrastructure buildout, they've had their 2000 moment. Now, that's not to suggest that they can't go down more. >> Yeah. >> Because who knows where all this is really going to settle out. data center power names. Verdive 53% from its high 50 40 high30s for a lot of these names. Neoclouds 1 month 1 month. Iron down 53% Nebas 48 core's down 50 as well. You've had a pretty sizable better than correction full-on bare market in these names. Well, let's say the best case is that they've already had their their 2000s.com bomb. Yeah. What happens next? If they follow the same playbook, you know what they do? They sit flat for 25 years. I recently sold Sienna that I think I've mentioned a few times in the past and I held like two or three shares in my own personal account that I bought back in 1999. And if you can pull up a chart of Sienna, yeah, that won't do it. Pull up that chart if you don't mind for 25 years. and you'll see that it sat flat for 25 years and then it recently had a pop, you know, so I thought that's kind of crazy. But so let's say Scott, they have had their do. What are they going to do? Maybe they're going to sit flat. But my suspicion is that they haven't had their do their dot moment and that they haven't. I think I think on that smaller name and I think this is where where we might rhyme with com, but we're not repeating is I think heaven's right. I too have more confidence in the meta in the alphabet in the hypers in the big guys right especially because like as if anthropics um stumbles if open AI stumbles that's to their credit but I think one of the things that I'm that I'm latching on to in my head is the idea of maybe there's not an AI bubble but maybe there's a data center bubble and one of the companies in my portfolio is microchip and they just reported and Steve Sangi the CEO said twice on the call I think data centers are in a bubble and he was careful not to say AI And that's an interesting idea. Maybe there's too much buildout of the data center. >> I think you're I I think honestly I think you're making the point that we're talking about here. There's not an AI itself thing. It's real. Demand is real. Sarah Frier, you heard her talking. Others I mean who are on the front lines. Everybody knows the demand for AI is real. Um, did the data center trade get a little ahead of itself or a lot ahead of itself? Did more than the data center trade get ahead of itself or a lot ahead of itself perhaps? But those are like massive massive pullbacks to the point where Jim you you bought Quant Services which is down 34 a.5% if not a little more from its high. It's getting a nice move today. It's had a rough week. You know what the stocks have done. Tell me about that move. Uh well obviously I'm taking the exact side of opposite side of of Jenny and that's fine. Um what I look at and I think if you're buying Quanta you have to believe that the data center trade is going to continue and that frankly it's not a bubble. So let me make that assertion now. Let me back that up a little bit. Let's just look at the demand or excuse me the revenue growth that we saw from Azure that we saw from uh Google Web Services. Uh we're talking in Google's case 100% plus year-over-year. talking in Azure's case over 40%. Um, that to me is not what a bubble is. A bubble is when things are being built without demand for them. These companies are telling us that they have more demand than they can meet with supply. We know by the way that when we're talking about data centers, a critical bottleneck, if not the critical bottleneck is electrical power supply. I would say we never really knew to be fair to that assessment whether we were and maybe we still are building too many data centers. >> I think >> we weren't going to find the answer out for a while until we really knew where demand was going to be. So I'd be careful with trying to you know make make that make that judgement. >> I I will take the the cautious uh reminder. I will take it um because it is probable based on human history that a bubble eventually forms, gets highly inflated and pops. To that extent, I think a democraticled slowdown of this build [clears throat] might actually be welcome. Um but in in terms of the data centers that are being built for the next year or two, they are going to be built uh and they're going to need the electrical power supply. Um, I draw a distinction between, of course, we always want to make this comparison to the late 1990s, but think about how much spending was done on Y2K that came to a crashing halt on Jan 1 of 2000. And I mean a complete stop. That's not what we're talking about here. Also, the fiber optic networks that were laid in the ground all over these cities were 90% unused. That's the exact opposite of what we have now. So, I mean, you're making the case that you don't think the you don't think the data center reality, I'm not even going to call it concerns cuz it's more of a reality now that the midterms have happened. Y >> and we you know, even people like Dan Ives are saying, well, you at minimum you're going to get 10% fewer than you thought as a direct result of this. >> You don't think that's true? You don't you think this is way overdone? >> Use the 10%. Exactly. Way overdone. Use the 10%. Fine. We're going to have 10% less data center. That's a guesstimate. >> I I got it. I I got it. I mean, I'm just keying on what you're saying, but what you also said is, and I do believe this, I think this is overdone. Uh now, look, Quanta is not exactly cheap at a mid20s multiple, but it's also off 33% from its recent high. Uh Amazon is at the cheapest it's been, frankly, in years and years and years. And it's not just data centers, although definitely Amazon Web Services, Tranium chips, etc. This is a big play in there with other drivers in terms of the retail as well. >> Man, at the end of the table, he owns he owns Quanta and he owns Vista. What What do you think of this jumping in now? >> I'd like to thank Jim for buying Quanta. Number one. Uh number two, yesterday was a binary day. If it had a data center attached to it, sell it. So, guess what? Coming out of this, you want to buy the best. You want to buy the best stocks. You want to buy the best operations. Quant is the best operation. Even though it's got it's got Colorado and Texas, this is the one that's only in Texas. We'll see what happens there. But decisions have not been made yet, but the market made it for you yesterday making a binary decision. Sell anything related to DA uh data centers. And I think that's a mistake when markets do that. >> Had been happening for look like that's like tail as old as time, right? When the market sells off everything and it's indiscriminate, blah blah blah. But it's my sense that it hasn't gone far enough, right? There's >> probably with overall Jen, but I think for certain stocks, this is now when you do stock pick. >> Okay, but let's take Micron for example, like you know, you can really look at that two ways. You can say, yeah, it's down 50%, you can say it's still up, it's still up 200%. In a year, you can say like, okay, we think the data centers are only going to lose 10%. Or you can say eventually competition is going to come on, or maybe maybe it's more than 10%. But that's why it trades at a reasonable multiple still because people are so skeptical about what the real future earnings growth is. And it's just my sense also having lived through.com it's just my sense that it hasn't gone far enough. And I think there's important math to remember too here which is okay sure the market looks great today. There's green everywhere right but when a stock like Micron's down 18 or 17% yesterday it needs to be up almost 20% to recover that it's only up six. So I'm not really seeing today's move as terribly reassuring in terms of like redirecting that momentum. Now, we all know I'm not a momentum trader, so maybe you shouldn't listen to me on that, but it just seems to me like the val like people are caring about valuations. The numbers aren't there. The feeling isn't there, you know, to get to get >> there's an insatiable demand for memory and there's going to be there's a dramatic supply demand imbalance >> for sure. >> And there's going to be there's nothing at this point to suggest there will not be. >> So, that's great and that's right. But then what is Micron's earnings growth rate in 2027, 2028, and 2029 for sure? And no one can answer that right now. >> Let me put it if we want to talk about Micron, let's not forget they're going to buy back a hundred billion dollars worth of shares for a market cap that just got a lot cheaper is 750 billion. This is a lot of shares. That's a good point. >> And so when we make these inevitable comparisons to the 1990s, we have to draw distinctions about where things are different. There's no debt on Micron's balance sheet. I mean, that's different than any other uh cycle that Micron's been on. There's no debt. They're generating gobs of free cash flow. Yes, Jenny, there are questions about the growth rate, but at literally four times next year's earnings. I'm okay with it. >> Did you What are you doing with Nebas, right? Cuz the Neoclouds are part of this conversation, too. And I'm glad you're on. We're waiting to have you on about this. That that stock's gotten, you know, crushed, obviously. >> Still up 42% year to date. That's one of the gen. >> I know, but you don't want to you don't want to sit here and watch that continue to still up 32%. still up 22%. You know what I'm saying? >> No. >> Exactly. But here would be my retort. 50 to 60% of their capex is prepaid by their existing customers. They have $10 billion of debt. Coreweave has $50 billion of debt. So, it's a it's a small midcap name for us. We want to play in that space and that's the one we want to play. >> You're comfortable. I felt like that was too brief of a defensive. >> Really? Well, it's I'm comfortable. Because I mean this to me these this sub sect of stocks feels like it's the biggest >> in many ways conversation like the Neo clouds are right at the heart of the way that they run up the way their valuations are the amount of debt that many memory of the chips are a bigger deal. Nebus is a small midcap name we own 50 basis points compared to an Nvidia where we own 700 basis points is a completely different completely different ball game. Yeah, I know. But sort of one is more at the kind of epicenter of the worries about what's happened on many levels. >> If you take a look at the total market cap of of the NeoCloud areas versus semiconductor chips versus the memory space, it's very small relative to the rest. So that's that's why our opinion. >> So you're holding the stock. >> Yes, you're keeping the stock. Um I mean the mega caps have obviously held up better than many of the others as as we did discuss. I want to bring in Malcolm Ethridge uh because I mentioned what's happened with Nvidia uh this week. You've trimmed it. Tell me more. Ahead of earnings, by the way, which I think are on the 17th. >> Yeah. So, I've actually trimmed it now for the third time this year. And I know that you would assume that that's probably because when the market seems to be souring on the AI trade, the company that's at the center of all the spending related to AI and all the building related to AI would be the first one to be under pressure. But it's actually because something about AMD's earnings just didn't sit right with me. So AMD reported 97% year-over-year growth in data center revenue specifically which was a really big positive for the broader semiconductor industry uh you know overall in the health of the AI trade but it also uh they also included some guidance uh that suggests that they expect to capture a growing share of that AI infrastructure spending uh going forward which is the space where Nvidia has dominated. So they included in there a little bit of uh detailing on uh guidance or detailing on um the models that they now the contracts that they now have with the model builders you know anthropic openai the hyperscalers Microsoft and on and they basically have proven now that they have the ability to come and potentially unseat uh Nvidia in some ways nibble at their market share in some ways and I know you know $90 billion uh per quarter in revenue is what Nvidia is reporting ing in data center uh revenue versus about 9 billion for AMD. So I'm comparing like a watermelon uh to a grapefruit probably. But just the fact that they have the potential to come along and be a substantial competitor uh to Nvidia is what I think is uh disheartening a little bit for anybody who's been really excited quarter after quarter about how much market share they've been to they've been able to control, how much of the gross margin they've been able to put up quarter after quarter. And so to your point, I'm selling it ahead of earnings just in case the market decides once again that it doesn't like what it hears from Nvidia post earnings because for the past few quarters, each time they report, the market says, "Yeah, that's great, but it's not good enough. What else could they tell us?" And so I think it's a good place to just be doing some risk management here for anybody like me who's gotten over their skis in Nvidia. I've trimmed it twice earlier this year and it keeps on growing back like a weed. And so I think it's a good place to be doing some trimming where the market is souring like I just said on the entire space alto together. >> I I I think the big difference when we talk about earnings is that we've seen Nvidia run into earnings and then sell off on news. If you look at Nvidia now Malcolm you're talking about a stock that's coasting at best maybe even limping into earnings. I don't mind the idea of de-risking. I think that's fantastic. If you're trimming again that makes sense. I wish Bulski would trim some of the Neocloud position, but that's a conversation maybe for another [clears throat] day, but I don't look at this Nvidia earnings season quite the same way as I had previously. If anything, I'm definitely holding the position and we're not looking to reduce the >> When you say you don't look at it like you used to previously. Why? Because of market conditions. Uh >> yeah, I think that the entire trade now because of the data center change, let's say that we're talking about 10% fewer data centers, 15% fewer data centers. It doesn't really matter. It changes the economics for every one of these companies regardless of the tentacle. So for me, you have to just lower expectations. The conversation about Micron was valid. Maybe they're sold out through 28, but Jenny, you mentioned 29. I think that that that peak in sales is probably here. So I'm still a believer in Nvidia. I still think it's cheap. own it, but I'm not I'm not sure that it's going to have the same problems post earnings that it's had previously in the quarters that we've seen 3 months, 6 months, 9 months ago. And that that to me is a big difference with Nvidia and some of these other names. >> And we'll see where things are. Yeah, sorry. Go ahead, Malcolm. >> I was just to Kev's point, I think we have to at least consider what increased competition from here looks like for Nvidia. So the Helio system is what I was referring to before about allowing them to run their software and hardware under one roof. It's similar, very similar to what Nvidia has been offering with CUDA, which has been the thing keeping their customers locked in to that sticky ecosystem. So with the names that I just mentioned, the companies that they've already started to secure contracts with and do business with, being willing to step in and validate that there is something there in terms of AM AMD's potential to slide slide in and slide itself as a meaningful number two. Nvidia hasn't really had to worry about competition in a meaningful way for the last four years that we've been talking about this AI trade. And that's why I'm saying specifically that before their earnings, it's a good time to be looking at risk management. >> All right, we'll talk to you again soon, Malcolm. Thank you. That's Malcolm Ethridge. We'll end the block with another buy. >> Amazon. >> Yep. >> Added to it. >> Uh, look, leaning in. Um, just this is a reflection of there is no sign yet of a slowdown. Not a not a slowdown in demand, not a slowdown in pricing. I'm talking obviously about AI trade. Amazon with its web services, with its tranium chips, etc. leaning into it. Um, I think what we're going through right now is a consolidation, a pause, not the beginning of the end. I can't make it any more clearer by than by the trades I'm making. >> Who's got a thought on that? >> We added to Amazon before earnings. We were a little bit early, maybe wrong, but I like the fact that you're seeing value and opportunity there. >> This is not December 31st, 1999. I will not make that statement and you can skewer me later if you want, [clears throat] but I there's no sign of demand stopping. >> Yeah, the politicians may slow it down, but the demand is there. >> How come no one's talking about the consumer business at Amazon? No one's talking about that. And that's >> because it's kind of like you're making an excuse for buying it, right? If you're buying Amazon right now, you're buying it for >> you are. And and as AWS grows to 50% of of where revenues are going to be, but you have that core business there. And I don't think not enough people talk about the >> I agree with you. I just didn't lead with that because it felt like I I mean, if I led with that, Scott would screw you for for [laughter] real. Oh, you're buying it for the retail. Go ahead. Hey, Scott, I'm buying Amazon for the retail business. >> What? [laughter] >> All right, we'll we're going to take a break. All right, we'll see what this last hour of trade does. It's been a week, hasn't it? Ed Yardi, Jeremy Seagull, Anastasia Amaroso, Courtney Garcia, Eric Woodring on where Apple's next move might be. And I hope you join me then. Brian Bellski, final trade. Take two. TTW Grand Theft Auto November 19th. >> Regardless of what's happening under the surface of the credit markets, Amazon, they have a strong balance sheet. >> Exon Mobile not done. Okay. >> Corax just had a great earnings report. >> Exciting. >> All right. I'll see you on the B. >> Hello everybody. Welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. It's Friday and it's November 6 at 6:31 p.m. Eastern time as I'm recording this video. We can see that the markets were mostly up. The S&P 500 was up 31% today. NASDAQ was up 1.09. The Dow was down46 and the Russell 2000 closed up.99%. In this video, folks, we're going to go over a number of the stocks and ETFs that were discussed on the halftime report. Earlier today, we saw some clips from today's episode, and we'll take a look at the SPY, the QQQ ETF, Dow, Russell, the Euro stocks, the VIX, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, oil. We'll also take a look at about 22 stocks and ETFs that were actually discussed on the show. All right, quite a few. And Nvidia is one of those. Amazon, you can see some of the big names there, the MAGS 7 ETF. And then we also have a ETF from one of our members that I'll be reviewing. So, let's go ahead and uh take a look first at the heat map. This is going to show us the individual stocks within the S&P 500. And you can see that Nvidia was up 2.77, Tesla was up 4.23. A lot of the computer hardware stocks like Dell, Annette, SanDisk was up, uh semic some semiconductor. Let me see here. This specific uh industry is a semiconductor equipment and materials. Okay, some of the big names there. They were up today. We'll look at um look at looking at the consumer defenses. They were down a little bit. Utilities were down. Um industrials were mixed. financials took a little bit of a hit today. All right, so let's go ahead and get into the charts and let's let's figure out exactly what's transpiring because we want to have a a heads up for next week for Monday, right? And so what we can do is assess what's going on here. Now, looking at the weekly chart, let's start off with the weekly. I like to start off with the weekly and I like to start off here with the S&P 500 today so we can get an overall view of the market. Okay, this ETF will address that. And what we've see here is was up.32%. But looking at that weekly chart, we can see four weeks now in a row where we've been dropping. Okay, we've been dropping. And guess what? We also broke through this consolidation box and closed under it this week on Friday. Okay, so that's not a good sign for the S&P 500. It's not a good sign necessarily. And so we might see a short-term potential pullback, maybe even down to the 69784 level. which is a prior level of you can see here it used to be resistance back here now it's going to act as a support level we also have are still currently above the Ichimoku cloud so we have that support level as well and it actually reaches it's right above that same level so that's kind of interesting the momentum is increasing to the downside notice the directional movement index um the positive DI9 is dropping the negative DI9 is moving up and the ADX is moving moving up the ADX represents momentum. So momentum is increasing to the downside on the weekly chart. However, since we are using this indicator and the whole purpose of this indicator is for us to um understand exactly what what state is this market in and ideally you always want to start off with that weekly chart to get a a sense, right? Because it's telling you the long-term um effects of what's happening. And we are still folks, we are still in a uptrend. Okay, it's very easy to see um the the actual uh we is it a strong uptrend? Well, not recently. Okay, it's pulled back a little bit. So, I'd call it a weaker type of uptrend, but it's still an uptrend because we are holding above this Ichimoku cloud. Now, I've talked about this uh indicator a lot as you know and if you're curious to know a little bit more about it, definitely check out yesterday uh not yesterday, the day before video. I went a little bit more into detail about it. But essentially, all we want is price to be above that green line, the nine period, the red line is the 26, the Ichimoku cloud, which is consists of the Senku span A and the Senu span B, which is also projected in the future by the way. And then we've got the Chico span or lagging line which is the current price rejected 26 periods ago. We want that white line above the candle 26 periods ago. Right now it's not. It actually entered the candle. Let me zoom in so you can see that. Okay. Do you see how the white line just dropped into the candle? [snorts] Before that we were looking pretty bullish. Right now it's, you know, this is a sign of weakness. It could be temporary like it was over here when we had this pullback and then we can recover. But right now, we are still in this state of decline, at least on the weekly chart. And if we look at the daily chart, yesterday's candle, look at that big red candle. I didn't do a video yesterday. Check out the size of that candle. It dropped significantly. But one important thing to note about this candle on the daily chart is the fact that it came very close to this dotted yellow line, the 200 day simple moving average, which also is a very strong support level. All right. Historically, that's a level that a lot of traders are looking at and looking for it for support and hopefully it will turn around. Today, we can see how it stalled. It was up.32% today, the S&P 500, right? In fact, this morning, the SPY gapped up. It moved up significantly, but then dropped, but still closed above the prior I'm sorry, above the opening price. It created what's called a inverse hammer. Okay. Now, this same candlestick, if you see something like that at the top of a move, they can call that a gravestone dogee. Okay. Right here, it's an inverse hammer. I'll just show you guys that candle pattern. You got this cheat sheet that I'm going to use on my X page under at BlueCloud Trader. You can find me there. You can also check out this candle pattern reference sheet. Click on it. It's at the top. And then take a look at and try to memorize these. These are important. So, we're going to look under bullish and we're going to look under single patterns. And what we're looking for is this right here, this pattern right here, the inverted hammer. So, you can see price dropping here. And this is the candle that's formed, that little body with a longer wick. Now, what does this mean? It just means there's a higher probability that on Monday, the spy will be moving up, at least on the daily chart. Okay? So, it might be a short-term move up. um it does not guarantee it. And so what I'd be watching very closely is the high of this candle to see if it can make it above that level. If it drops under that level, it's probably going to be a continuation and it's going to basically discard and it's not going to be relevant at that point. Okay. So, but it is showing us a bullish pattern right now. So, that's what I'm saying. We could see a move up on Monday, maybe Tuesday as well. Now, one more thing I want to mention is there are some important days uh on the economic calendar next week. Okay, so Monday, November 9th, not a whole lot going on here. Okay, the impact of these events here are not going to really have significant impact on the market, but on Tuesday, November 10th around 8:30 a.m. here, the core inflation rate month overmonth and the corn inflation rate year-over-year, those will have a higher impact on the market. and the inflation rate year-over-year and inflation rate here. Um I'm sorry. Yeah, this these two as well. The inflation rate month over month. Okay, so they have the core inflation rate month over month and then inflation rate month over month. Let's keep going down. Let's see what else. Wednesday is going to be a relatively easy day. Thursday, however, at 10:00 a.m. the existing home sales come out. All right, so that's going to have an impact on the market, too. and it could impact the real estate stocks most likely going going to Friday, November 13th, we've got at 8:30 a.m. the PPI month over month. You can see here three red dots that could be impactful on the markets. So, we'll see what happens on those days and how they affect the charts. But right now, like I said, this is what it it's looking relatively bullish um for next week, even though we are technically still under this cloud just based on this candlestick pattern. Okay. Uh let's take a look at the QQQ ETF. Did something very similar. Jumped 1.4% gapped back up. Okay. And by the way, this this other pattern that we're looking at here, it also there's a second pattern. It's a double candle pattern called the bullish harami. large red candle followed by a small little candle that's within the body of the prior candle. So, it's also a bullish harami pattern and that my folks you can find here under bullish double candle patterns. Let me go ahead and there it is. Okay, large rate candle followed by a small bullish candle. It doesn't really matter what type of candle it is as long as it's bullish and small. Okay. All right. Let's go back to the charts. So, let's go look at the QQQ ETF, which was up 1.4%. It jumped up, you know, would I be adding positions in either the SPY or the Q's um next week? No. Because as long as price is under the Ichimoku cloud, it's really negative territory. You don't want to be adding. Okay? You want to be you wouldn't want to be shorting here either, though. That's the point. Okay? We want to have a better assessment of what's probably going to happen. Um, looking at the weekly chart for the QQQ ETF, that's been pulling back. This one here actually closed under this prior low right here. All right, that's important. Um, it it dropped right under the low of this candle, which was 66114 and it's at 65610. So, but it we've got support and it's only 2% away. 2.4% away from where we currently are. The cloud itself. How about the Dow Jones on the weekly chart? Also dropped today. Was down4%. You can see here it's still above the prior low. All right. So, it's just holding on pretty nicely actually above this 50470 level. I wouldn't be adding positions based on the weekly the daily chart. You can see here we've also pulled back and today we had a nice uh we first the Dow gap down but then it spent the rest of the day moving up the majority of the day. Right? So, and we're close to that 200 day. We're close to this prior low here of 50470. Okay. Right there from this goes back to October 1st. So, we might see a bounce next week. The Russell 2000, same situation. Look at this. It's Isn't it interesting how all the indices are are stalling at specific levels? All right. Look at this 270 36 level. Look how many times it found support right here. Three, four, and then it bounced one, two, touched it. Literally touched it and and moved off. This is a bullish harami pattern as well. Again, we're under this cloud. We're still in bearish territory, you know. So, I I would not be jumping into this. If you look at the weekly chart on the Russell, it's uh you can see here, we're still under these two moving averages as well, right? But we're still technically in a in a weak uptrend, the VIX. Okay, let's look at the daily chart on this one. It it spiked yesterday. You can see the big move. It moved up to level of 28, right? It went from literally from back here from 1663 to that high of 2842 a 71% jump yesterday and today it dropped 9.3%. Okay, and that's good. We want to see volatility coming out of this market. Uh fe the euro stocks well they dropped 1.34%. So here it was starting to look a little bit bullish, but as I mentioned before, when price is under the Ichimoku cloud, you don't want to be adding positions. Even if you start seeing some bullishness because it can be very short-lived, okay, there's no it's not a um reliable, okay, pattern here to get in under the cloud. All right, and here's So I'd stay out of FEZ for now. Gold did something similar where it jumped up yesterday and then you can see this reversal candlestick, a red spinning top and then pulled back down 77%. Silver on the daily chart also uh under the cloud. I'd stay out of that one of course and uh Bitcoin IBIT is inside the cloud which means it's in a neutral state right now. It doesn't seem to be a whole lot happening here with Bitcoin on the daily chart. [snorts] Looking at the weekly chart, we're under the cloud. That's bearish. One positive thing that's happened is we we took out this prior high. We have a higher high. Okay. But um this could potentially continue dropping. Ethereum on the weekly chart is under the cloud. On the daily chart, it's under the cloud as well. But we've got that support. The 200 day moving average potentially here. Oil K, the ProShares K1 free crude oil strategy ETF. All right. As you can see, it is bouncing. It's bouncing. Let me just double check something. Okay, that's interesting. So, this prior low here, there's a couple of lows actually. Okay, this might be more significant because of the fact that it stalled right at that level. So, this low here, let me go ahead and throw a actual line here. Let's find out the exact dollar amount, which is 5124. All right, let's see. 5124. Okay. And that is a daily level. Let me go back a little bit in time. Interesting. I want you guys to check out something. So, I mean, I didn't know this, right? I'm just looking at this right now. You can see I found support there. Bounced off of that level there and there. Stayed above that level here. Okay. Over here. Um, once price got under that level from the from being above it, it dropped once uh once it it retested here. And then once it got above it, went to the next level up. So, it's interesting how it's been finding support at that 51.24 level on the daily chart and it did not close on Wednesday under that level, Thursday or Friday. So, oil seems to be stalling right now and we might get a reversal here. Okay, notice these higher lows on the daily chart. If I [snorts] switch it to a 4 hour, we can see a little bit more clearly. If I switch it to a 2 hour, even more, maybe 30 minute gives you more insight as well. Okay, go to a 10-minute chart and we're above the Ichimoku cloud right now. So, it's interesting what's happening now. Let's keep going. Let's go to the next uh segment here. We're going to start off with let's start off with Applied Materials. I mean, it's in a you know, it was up 4.22%. It it jumped here, but it's it's in still in a decline. Now we hold off on on applied materials. Amazon is above the cloud. But look at this cloud. It's a pretty weak future cloud. The single span A is still under the SPAN B. Let's pull back a little here. It's a pretty messy looking chart. We want to see that cloud, you know, um it should be thicker. It should be moving up. And we don't have that right here. Here's a weekly chart. Weekly chart looks a little better, but faster moving averages instead of the slower ones. I would I would hold off on Amazon for now. Sienna Corporation is still in a decline. I mean, it's down. It was up 5.3. You can see the the gap up here, but look at the type of candle that formed at the by the end of the day. It was a red candle. So, I'm not as interested in this one here. Uh CLX, that's Clorox. It's in the consumer defensive sector which has been stronger these uh last this week specifically um has moved up nicely here since the beginning of October Clorox has moved up 25.89% 89% or so. A nice move. Now it's stalling at the 200. So just as 200 the 200 can act as a support level. Once it breaks under it can drop. Once it breaks above it can continue to the upside. And right now we did close above here today on Friday. That's good. Um it was only up 21%. The cloud is still um bearish but price is above it. weekly chart under the cloud. So, it's not something I'd be adding to my portfolio. CRWV Core Weave is still dropping here in the weekly. And here's a daily chart, up 6.28%. Don't get don't get um too excited by all these percentage moves that you're seeing here today. Don't forget what happened yesterday. Um look at the trend. What is the trend telling us? It's still an established downtrend. Okay? Okay, there's no reversal happening here, but potentially there is, but it's impossible to to to know until we can get above prior highs and create new higher lows. Um, Dr. AM round memory ETF is still in a decline even though it was up 6.16% today. DTCR is still in under the cloud and under the 200. No. Iron Yen Limited financial services sector, it moved up, listen to this, 20.02%. you would think, wow, that's a fantastic stock to get into. No. Um, even with that 20.02% move, everything is still looking very negative here on this chart on the daily. If we look at the weekly chart, the good news is, okay, we seem to be have bounced off this 200. And yes, there's potential that this is the bottom, right? Because we have a hammer candle this week. And next week if we can get above the high of that candle there of uh 2467 it could continue moving up but it's a it's a higher risk move to add positions when you're under the cloud. KAC has entered the cloud is in neutral territory on the weekly and it's in a decline on the daily. So no on that one. LRCX was up 8.23% but as you can see it's still in a embedded decline. What is the embedded decline? It's one where price is under the cloud. We got a series of again lower highs. Okay, so this high is lower than the prior one. This low here is lower than the prior one over here. And then we've got another low down here. So that's not good. Um they also call that a downward channel. Those of you who are new to technical analysis, okay, it's not a good idea. Imagine you're trying to get somewhere, right? Right? If you have a destination that you're trying to get to and it's up here, these these levels so you can make some money. Okay? You're going to take the train up, not the train down. Think of it. It's as simple as that. Uh MAGs, the Round Magnificent 7 ETF. Here's a weekly chart pulling back four weeks in a row. Um it even closed under the 26th period, but we're still in a weak uptrend. And on the daily chart, we are under the cloud. We might bounce here potentially, but again, it's not something I would be getting into. Uh, MCHP, Microchip Technologies, still in a decline, down 10.02% today. It's a big drop. Here's a weekly chart. No thanks on that one. Marvel also dropped. In fact, it dropped under the 16290, this prior low here. That's not good. Let's take a look at that daily chart. Okay, you can see even more clearly that you shouldn't be adding positions here right now. Um, now, okay, there are some um traders out there that like this kind of this type of trade. Why? Because price is so far away from the moving averages from a standard deviation that it's, you know, it still has a good probability of of um pulling back up here and coming back at least to retest these prior resistance levels. But again, you're taking a chance there. Uh Nvidia, let's look at the weekly chart. Has entered the cloud. It's in neutral territory. They come out with earnings on November 17th. That's going to be the make or break, I think, for the semiconductors. If Nvidia does well, so does the the group itself. We'll probably see them jump in price as well. If Nvidia drops significantly, we're going to see a big drop in the majority of those as well. Um, let's keep going. And that's the weekly chart and here's the daily chart. You can see Nvidia has pulled back significantly. But just keep in mind that the semiconductors, guys, is uh just looking at the big picture here on the weekly chart is still all right. Uh it's it's it's neutral currently. It's just indecision going on right now because prices inside the cloud. PWR quant services uh dropped closed under the weekly chart here. That's not good. Uh the future cloud is still bullish, meaning the single span is above the single span B, but everything else looks pretty negative. Chico span the lagging line is under price. Looking at the daily chart, it's even more clear. You can see that downward channel. Uh QCOM, it was up 5.52%, but you can see where it stalled right at the nine period. So that's a imag imagine you're you're getting in that would be the target and that's when people started to sell it off creating this spinning top type pattern. It's right at the 200 the 26 and the 93 double resistance lines right there. Of course it's probably going to like stall. Um let's keep going. SMH still under the cloud. Still in this downward channel right now. Here's a weekly chart. You can see it pulling back more. SNDK and let me just go back to SMH for a moment. Just one more important thing to note is that um we stopped at least on this weekly chart right at the top of the cloud and again this can act as a very strong support level. So to next week will be interesting to see uh SNDK Sandis Corporation pulled back and stopped right inside the cloud. So it's in neutral territory on the on the weekly chica span here. The lagging line dropped under the candle this week. And if you look at the daily chart, it's looking pretty bearish here as well from the highs back here. Um, once it broke under the 9 period, which was back here on September 28th, it's dropped 51%. It's a big drop in just a such a short period of time. Uh, TER, but remember, these stocks also move when they start moving up, they move up very quickly as well. So, it's they're very volatile. If you can't stomach these types of percentage drops in these semiconductor type stocks, you shouldn't be adding semiconductor stocks into your portfolios, right? You have to be able to weather the storms, too, um until it's completely, you know, out of control and you know that you shouldn't be in that stock or ETF. Here's TER, Terterodine, Inc., here's the weekly chart pulling back here. It's under the cloud right now. And here's a daily chart. Okay, it's it's really far away from these moving averages, which leads me to believe that we're going to see a reversion back, but I just can't tell when that's going to happen, but it's it's gotten it's dropped significantly. Again, this is going to be impacted by Nvidia's earnings when they come out. Uh TTWO take software entered the cloud. It's in neutral territory on the daily. It's right under that 200 on the weekly chart. It's also under the cloud. a no on TTWO. VRT Verdive Holdings has pulled back under the cloud on the weekly chart where you can see the bearishness here. The cloud turning bearish where the single span A crossing under the SU band B. The Chica band the lagging line is under price. The faster moving average is under this lower one. A lot of negativity here on the weekly chart. You look at the daily, same thing. Okay. um XLK technology as a as a sector XLK ETF. Um you can see that it you know last week I'm sorry not last week this just yesterday Thursday November 5th this was the big gap down dropped under that 200 now that today was it jumped a little bit. All right so we had the little gap up but we still have a reg a negative candle. You know, it's going to be interesting to see what happens next week. Um, all right, let's keep going. We're going to Now, we went through 22 stocks. You saw how quickly we did that. That's the beauty of this indicator. Can you can quickly assess the markets with this. Let's look at PRF. It's an ETF. I brought this up actually in a membersonly video not long ago. Let's see when was I. That was B July 11th. Okay. So July 11th of this year, I brought I basically shared this with members. The Invesco Rafi US 1000 ETF PRF tracks the 10,00 largest US companies, but instead of weighing them by market cap, it selects them based on fundamental metrics like sales, cash flow, and dividends. The smart beta approach allows the fund to dynamically sell overvalued stocks and buy undervalued ones, offering a built-in value tilt compared to a traditional S&P 500 index. How has this performed this year, 2026? Well, let's take a look. We're looking at a weekly chart. Here's 2026, and let's get into January 2nd right here. If I select that right there and we look on on the right hand side, we can see that PRF is up 16.91%. How is that done compared to the SPY? So, this is this would be the same spot right here. SPY is only up 7.38%. So, significantly better. And here's a spy dropping under the moving averages. How's PRF handling the Ichimoku right now? still holding up above that 26th period on the weekly chart. Looking at the daily chart, we it also got hit yesterday on Thursday, but then today it also, you know, even though it was down 27%, it's like right close, very close to the cloud. And it's very interesting to see this one how it's performing. Um, so yeah, that's my uh, you know, right now it's not something I would be adding here because of the daily chart and the weekly chart has shown weakness this week with price getting into the the 9 period. But if it can reverse course and bounce back back up again, get above that 9 period on the weekly and on the daily chart, [snorts] that's going to be important because you can see here the daily chart is still we have a future bullish cloud right on the daily and on the weekly. And look at that. This is the type of cloud that I was talking about earlier that you're looking for. It it it's so clear you can't mistake it. Um price is also significantly above the cloud. Okay. It's just a really nice uptrend. You know where you go back in time a little bit. I mean this is this has done pretty well actually. Stayed above the cloud here. It looks like the last time it was under the cloud PRF was back here in 2023. October 27th of 2023 and since then it's up let's see hold on one second guys. So from from when it broke back above here let's we'll just say once it broke back above we we'll put this we'll make that the point right there back on January I'm sorry November 17th 2023 it's moved up 66.82% pay 2%. So pretty well. Okay, so guys, that's going to do it for this video. Now, if you guys want to get access to the member only videos, uh, go to my YouTube channel, BlueCloud Trading. Scroll down a little bit. This is where you'll find them. And you just basically to access those, the only way to access them is by becoming a member by hitting the join button, which is right next to the subscribe button. It's free to subscribe, free to put the notification bell so you know when my these types of videos come out. But if you want to get access to member only videos, click the join button. All right, there's three levels. You do need to select BlueCloud Trader to get access to those or BlueCloud Legend. All right, the difference between these two is the fact that under BlueCloud Legend, you'll also get access to the daily stock and ETF trade updates that I share in a post each day. So, I also share new stock ideas from the proprietary scanner that I use and give an assessment of the market before the market closes. Uh, generally between 12 and like 2 p.m. Um, so yeah, guys, consider that and check out some of the other links here. If you want 10 more links, if you maybe you like the charting software that I'm using, you can get a $25 coupon with uh with this link for TC2000. Check out the Finn Viz Elite link. Um if you want to if you've been thinking about getting Starlink or Starlink Mini so you can have internet no matter where you are. Uh this is you can get a $100 credit after two months with this link. And let's see what else. This is a trading view charting software link my Twitter page. If you're a property manager, landlord, consider this right here. Free property management software. It's a free property management platform portal. It's great. I use it. TC200 I'm a landlord. So TC2000 chart layout automatic. Okay, here we got TC2000 um.com this little these letters here. What that will do is if you do end up using the charting software, if you use this link, it will make it will automatically set it up so that it looks like mine with the Ichimoku indicator, the directional movement index. Okay, it will just make the set that up automatically for you so you don't have to go in there and do it all yourself. It's not going to look like that right off the bat. Okay, so just that's why I created that link for you guys. That's going to do it. Thanks again. Have a great rest of the weekend and look out for that members only video that will be coming out either tomorrow or on Sunday. [music] The ichimoku [singing] guiding light [music] blue cloud traing [singing] through the night. Heat. Heat.