This Changes Things

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. >> All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and this is the weekend's deep dive where we like to come back and reexamine the base case and see if things are largely speaking still going according to plan. And I do this as a sanity check so that I can justify my positioning and posturing in the market, which I'll show you at the end. As always, I never normally say this, but I am a little concerned here because there are rumors circulating that a fund is getting blown out. Now, I haven't seen any hard and fast evidence of this other than the VIX made an intraday high of 22 and change, okay, and then closed just below 20. So, it could easily be that it was just running all the short stops. It could easily be that, you know, there was a bit of volatility and that subsided. But to me, this is a spurious data point that we should be paying attention to in the coming week particularly. Now, the pullback in the stock market is pretty tame at the moment. I think the S&P 500 is still only two and change percent off of the highs. So hardly a dip you could really even call a dip at this point. But if it is this which is suspected or some other entity getting blown out, then things could get a little ugly over the next week or so. So I think we'll need to be on guard for that. But as it stands, the base case for the stocks at the lows was we were too bearish. We'd have a blowoff top and then come tumbling down, have a fouryear cycle low. we would experience a short period of asset price deflation and when it was all said and done the NBER would go back and paint those gray recessionary bars over the pullback. Fast forward to today and whilst it has gone on longer than I thought it would, it's impossible to say this is not a blowoff top, right? This is clearly a huge rally that is getting steeper and steeper at each leg. We made all-time highs just a couple of weekly candles ago. We're still absent of any lower lows as it stands and we're still pushing higher. So, it could top any minute now. In theory, it should have topped a little while ago and started to correct into a 4-year low. But until that happens, then you just have to keep hitting the buy button and assuming it's going to be bullish until it shows you something else. And so far, it hasn't done that. I do note sentiment given that we're not even 3% off the highs here. Is pretty nervous and jittery. As far as I can tell, it looks a lot like this. Okay, now I think we've done enough to say that we could have topped for sure or we could be topping imminently. But we could also be somewhere down here. You just don't know. The only way we can tell is after the thing breaks down. But, you know, when this thing is just a couple% off the highs, like I said already, it looks suspiciously to me like we may still have a little bit more to go, which is kind of crazy because the cycles are already very late to see a top. We should have topped already. But sometimes you can get the cycles extremely right translate. As longtime viewers of the channel will know because we've been talking about it over and again how this current setup is quite eerily similar to the runup here where we went extremely right translated before the C19 plunge. So for now, one day at a time until something goes bang. I'm expecting it to go bang at some point. Okay? It could be this week and it could be a couple of months away or more. We don't know. But for now, it's a case of long and strong and see what the market will give. And it does continue to give at the moment. For Bitcoin from the last four year cycle though, we were trading this thing via the weekly cycles through the bull market. This was the most bullish outcome which never came to fruition. We did however have a plan B as always in the form of this red squiggle. Right now in terms of time, we've kind of done this and we're about here. We did interestingly this time around make a higher high up here which according to my little squiggle schematic I wasn't expecting. And it's because of that higher high that I'm actually now targeting a higher low pullback here. Okay, so low, higher low and then go into a new bull market. If somehow this whole pattern was going to be an expanded flat correction and still make new lower lows, then this should be the top and we should just continue in down in a straight line until that kind of next weekly cycle low window. But as I've been saying over and again, I don't want to have this as my base case anymore because being dogmatic like that after an invalidation is here is a shorefire way to get yourself locked out. Okay? You see something like this instead of buy the higher low, which is a show of strength and a confirmation of a new uptrend beginning. If you just target the low and then this happens, by the time you get up here, you find yourself locked out of the rally. You've missed the whole move. And you know, there's always a few chances to get in. You could have bought here, okay? You could have bought this or worst case scenario, you could have waited until the very last possible minute, which would be this pullback, and then get hold of it and go, but you can't miss this, this, and this, and then get up here and go, okay, time to start recognizing this is a new bull market. So, I think we're going to see a daily cycle low imminently. I kind of expect it to push one final higher high out of this weekly cycle, then turn around and head for the upcoming weekly cycle low, something like this. And it should be this big inverse head and shoulders pattern. That's what I'm thinking. Worst case scenario, the upcoming longs, which I'll show you at the end, should fail, get stopped out, and then we say, "Okay, now we're switching from 80% probability the low is in to 80% probability that we are seeking fourear cycle low like many of the higher beta assets already are. Many of them have elicited weekly cycle failure and are clearly heading for new lows. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin has to. It doesn't mean ETH has to. And as I said, the base case right now is that so long as we can get new highs out of the upcoming daily cycle, then we should get a big ABC correction back into a weekly cycle. And that will confirm that this indeed is the 4year cycle back here at the lowest low. So day by day, solving it, letting the market show us what's up, and then just reacting instead of trying to predict. As I said at the start, I do expect us to slip into a short period of asset price deflation. I also expect us to continue to head lower in the inflation data. And I know this is still a very contested call, but it's simply because anything you do here shows up here with a bit of a lag. This thing I still make the case is going to slip negative. Here's a more up-to-date look at the chart. It does beg a question. Is the bottom end in are we going to trend higher like most people seem to think in the market or are we soon to roll over and continue lower? I think it's the latter. True inflation has been ticking up a bit over the last month or so, but of course nothing moves in straight lines. We did get hotter CPI and PPI data come out this week. With both CPI and PPI being hotter than expected, it's important to look under the hood and see what's happening. If you swap shelter, which is a flawed and lagging metric in the CPI basket, with a real-time metric such as ALRI, what you find is we've been well below target for a long time. Most people don't want to do this kind of thing. They just want to read the headline and be sensationalist. But again, here's CPI year-over-year substituted with ALNRI instead of shelter. Look at the picture it paints. Very different to the narrative they are feeding us. Very different to the narrative they want us to believe. And again, you can see that core CPI inflation, this goes all the way back to August of 22. This is not an inflationary environment. I know a lot of people have been sold on that. I know a lot of media outlets and big chairman and Feds and that kind of thing have been convincing you of that, but that is not what the data actually says. PCE has also ticked up a little bit in the short term. Okay, again nothing moves in straight lines, but the trimmed mean year-over-year clearly still disinflationary. It's not up for debate. Headline PC 3-month average annualized, as you can see, below target. And this is a post from October. A lot of people read these dates down the bottom and say, well, it's not even an up-to-date chart. It is an up-to-date chart. It's a three-month average. And again, PCE inflation in blue, okay, is starting to top and move lower. I make the case, okay, you don't have to agree with it. you can reject it, but I make the case that we have likely seen the top here and it's going to continue to move lower. So, one day at a time as always, but so far I still suggest in a couple of months time inflation will continue to move lower as it has been. Yes, there will be short-term wobbles along the way, but I'm making the case just like I have many times before that those short-term wobbles will resolve to new lows. Again, feel free to reject it if you want to. The next component of this hypothesis is that like I said earlier the NBER who are officially in charge of dating and declaring recessions will go back and paint one of these gray recessionary bars over the data at some point in the not too distant future. They'll come back and say, "Yeah, we were in recession for this type of period." And if you look at the common theme throughout all of these labor market charts, what you'll notice is if you look at the shaded periods that denote recessions, this looks like a recessionary look, at least to my eye. Same deal here. Take a look at what happens during the recessionary periods. And what have we got at the hard right edge? The same thing. It just looks to me like they are going to have to go back and say, "Yeah, do you know what? That was a technical recession." This is quits total non-farm. Same deal, right? It's the same across all of these. All employees temporary health services. The only thing missing from this is a gray recessionary bar over the data. We can observe the same pattern for hiring rate. And keep in mind, all of this is on top of the fact that they've revised over 2 million jobs out of the data over the past 3 years. And they continue to revise the data. So much so that it turns plus 900k jobs added into negative 627K over the entire 12-month period. Right? This is how much revision they're doing. They are initially telling people that the labor market is strong and resilient. And then after they're done revising, they're telling you that no jobs were added whatsoever for the entire year. It's pretty wild, especially if you are a naturally tinfoil hatwearing paranoid person like I am. I appreciate not everyone is. I'm probably a little envious of people that get to walk around feeling like everything is fine and dandy. I can't even walk through the countryside without looking over my shoulder to check to see if something's coming for me. I know that's a me problem, not a you problem. But when you're wired up that way, you see things like this and you go, "Ah, yeah, my Spidey senses are probably right." With that said, what do we have for the unemployment rate? Oh, by the way, if you made it this far, it's probably because you're a proper Camel Crew member and therefore you probably do use this site. the team were asking because we are building our own internal trading view. Which indicators do you guys use apart from ours? Yeah. So, if you want to be able to say, I want the indicator with the breit, let us know. Obviously, I think we've got the breet built in. But if you also use RSI or some moving averages, whatever it is, stick it in the comments and we will add those first to the internal software. For most people, it won't really affect you for a couple of years. It's not going to be ready. But with that said, they are building at an incredibly quick pace. So for whatever style of trading you have, if you use indicators and you use them in combination with ours, then let us know in the comments. And if you want anything added to this macro dashboard as well, let us know about that. And the quant dashboard is coming very soon, thus with all the back tested data and stuff. So that should be a fun time. Anyway, the point is this. I have been repeatedly concerned at this quietly persistent trend in labor market deterioration. This is the unemployment rate, and for a long time now, it's been bouncing around between about four and 4.4. And I've been saying what I wanted to see is a consistent and persistent rollover so that we could potentially swerve a recession. And whether we get a recession or not, I don't mind having a recession if not a lot of people lose their jobs. You can see from the gray shaded bars, recessions are synonymous with large spikes in unemployment. And so what I've been saying is I don't really want to see this, but it's just kind of what I'm expecting to see. Okay? until proven otherwise, until we can get consistent and persistent rollovers, then we can't say that that's not a concern. And I've also been saying, and this is the really important part, what we want to see is lower lows and lower highs, a downtrend here in all of these data sets. What we wanted to avoid was a low followed by a higher high, right? And then that's how you get your uptrends. So, this is to be determined. It hasn't quite made its mind up for what it's going to do. But when we look at the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds, not only has it been consistently deteriorating, okay, we got this first pullback and so far it looks like it's ready to move higher again. Now, I hope that's not the case. Okay, I hope that we can form a lower high here and then soon roll over. That would be great. That would be nice. But we are clearly susceptible to another push higher. When we look at U6, okay, this is okay. This is what I want to see. I want to see this kind of rolling over, this rounding. Okay, but this will need to persist for some months to come. And the look we want to avoid here would be this curling back up again. The SAM recession rule is exactly what we want to see. This thing peaked back in 2024, September 24, and has ever since only made lower highs and lower lows. This is the kind of look I want to be able to apply to these other data sets. But I am a little concerned that instead we're going to get this kind of turning up. Now, the bond market knows what's up. That's why I always say tell that to the bond market. If you believe the headline data, you'd say inflation is sticky, inflation is going high, and the labor market is strong and resilient. Or you can do a little bit of work, put a little bit of effort in, look under the hood, as we've done today, and you can determine that inflation is still in a downtrend, right? We still have disinflation, not inflation. You can also conclude the labor market deterioration is still consistent and persistent. It has not eased up yet. It's showing very early signs of having a potential to turn. But in most of those metrics, it looks like we are not yet through the woods. We can't yet breathe a sigh of relief and say there's not going to be any significant labor market deterioration. And yet, we're not hiking rates anymore. Okay, if inflation was really out of control and the labor market was really strong and resilient, why wouldn't we just hike rates? Especially because the stocks are only a couple percent off the highs. We should be able to easily withstand more rate hikes, right? But the bonds market knows inflation is not as sticky as they're letting on. The labor market is a lot weaker than they're letting on. Especially when you account for the downward revisions they keep doing. And thus this interest rate policy is likely too restrictive. And that is why this week despite getting the data we did, we are still remaining paused. Okay, it's because tell that to the bond market and because the cycles are in control. The last couple of things I want to check in on here are the high yield credit spreads which I used as my alarm signals. You can see we've made it up to the top of this range. Okay, now we've been here before several times. No real problem here. We had a little bit of a pullback in the stock market, but nothing major. And then the moment we got back beneath the breakout level, we went on a big powerful bull run in the market. So, we are clearly at an inflection point here. If we can simply poke above here, turn around, come back down inside the range and do this. There's no real reason to get defensive. There's no real problem here. And we can expect more and more upside in the equity markets. If however this morphs into a look like this, the downside has not even started yet and it's going to get very very bearish very very quickly. So I want to avoid a look like this. We don't want a repeat of this and instead we want to try to find a repeat of this bit. So by next weekend's deep dive I should think we will have our answer. If this is starting to blow out and the stocks have spent the entire week declining then I probably expect to be flat by Wednesday. And of course the inverse is true. If this thing rolls over, if we don't get that blowout of the funds that I was talking about, or if that problem is resolved early week, then I'd kind of expect this to happen. And I'd expect to have nice big green weekly candles for the equity markets. But remember, we use these as alarm signals, and this is about as alarming as it can be without it being a signal that tells you to exit the market. There's plenty of narrative out there and if we are going to get some liquidation cascades or funds blowing out then it won't take much will it to change this into a look like this. So we will need to be extra vigilant going into this week. Same thing applies with the 102 yield curve. When we get these big accelerative sweeps like in the C19, the GFC and the.com bubble, it tends to be synonymous with the stock market topping. But when we hop into this chart and take a quick look, what have we got? Really no reason to be alarmed just yet. Obviously, this is potentially a problem. This, however, doesn't really look like an issue to me. Now, if I sharpen this to the threemonth yield spread, this thing is marching onwards. Okay, I wouldn't say it's got this kind of sweepish n nature. It's not blowing out, okay, like it has done in prior instances of recession, but it is certainly marching higher. So, I do think we should be on guard here. But the key part of all of this is when we go over to the S&P 500, go down to a daily time frame here. It really doesn't look that bad. Like it's hard to be super bearish here. I know there's a lot of nervous people out there at the moment. And there's a lot of people that are 100% convinced that the only possible path from here is this. But as far as I can tell, this is just a daily cycle low with so far a half cycle low pending confirmation. Okay. We were looking to get it hopefully on the 20day window, which would have been Wednesday, but it could be 22. That's fine. It could even go 23 or 24 depending on whether this low is going to be shifted out a few days or not. And in fact, I'm sure we had a 21 or 22 day low half cycle low back here. Was it? That's a 21 right there. There's a 25 one there. You know, the half cycle low could be a few days either side of 20. Just like how a daily cycle low could be, let's say, four days either side of 40 for the S&P. And so far it is just a daily cycle low, a high, okay, a higher low, high, and then another higher low into the half cycle low window. So the only thing that's missing here is another push to new highs, and then the pull back into this. And we get to shove this over. Remember, this was here, and then it was here, and then we could even shove it over and do this. So far, not a great deal of technical damage has occurred despite the bearish rhetoric out there. Like I said, the VIX thing and the funds blowing out. This kind of makes me feel a bit uncomfortable. But for all we know, Monday's candle reverses pretty much all of this move by the end of the week. We get back here and this looks something like this. And then this S&P has confirmed a half cycle low and has done something like this. And then really all of this worry will have been for nothing. But we do have to be open to all possible outcomes so we don't get our pants pulled down by the market. I know some people are going to say, "Well, Cameron, what about the NASDAQ which is down a lot off the highs?" Yeah, it is. But at the moment, that's a daily cycle low. That has not elicited daily cycle failure. It could very easily whips saw its way back up here and then print another daily low. This arrow looks too close. Yeah, let's stick it out a couple more days. There you go. So, I mean, it could still be this, couldn't it? It really could. I saw some of the Elliot wave guys in the camel crew saying that even if it sweeps this low and fails the daily cycle, it could still just be an expanded flat correction before it rips higher again. And at the same time, the Dow Jones, for a while, it was a little concerning that it was bleeding whilst the Nasdaq and the S&P were ripping. But right now, it looks like it's ready to leave behind a brand new weekly cycle low here, doesn't it? It's only got a close about 600 points higher for next week. And that's a confirmed weekly pivot in place. So, looks like it could almost be time to add more equity exposure despite all the panic out there. All of this is of course depending on whether or not things start to go bang this week or not. But so long as no funds get completely blown out and we don't see the VIX close the week somewhere up here, then I would suggest it's a buy the dip opportunity. Here's oil soon to top for its weekly cycle. I imagine I've been saying about this, right? Should spend a couple of weeks moving higher and then roll over to try to catch this yellow squiggle back up. No changes to the precious metals. Gone awfully quiet here since people were clowning for quote missing the low. But here it comes about to sweep that low into the 4 year cycle low, new weekly cycle and off we go. Same for silver. I see a lot of people trying to force a bottom here. But based on the amount of daily cycles that have failed, it only makes sense here for a good few weeks of flush. Let's say down to sub50. Hopefully reset the oscillator down the bottom and then it should be time to get super duper uber bullish on silver. I reckon a 10x from here shouldn't be a problem. I'm not really a target guy and that is essentially a worthless guess. So I'll just say that now. But I would expect roughly 10x over the coming three or four years from silver here if I'm even half right on what's coming. Bitcoin again, look at the weekly chart. It's getting ready to cross bearish and have that weekly cycle correction. Okay, which we know is due in the not too distant future. But first, I do want to get long here because we got a daily cycle low about to confirm. I think it should confirm this week. It should look something like this. Level three members will be notified in real time as always. We've also got a plan for the spot, which again I'll reiterate in today's level three members video on YouTube. But as I've been saying over and again, I just want to assume bullishness here because I don't want to risk getting completely locked out of the move. Okay, so I'm going to add some here. Hopefully this happens. Then a big ABC into the weekly cycle low. The whole thing becomes that inverse head and shoulders in that timing window here. Buy a chunk down here. Get the full allocation and off we go. I want to assume that's coming just in case what comes next is some monster insane move up here. Okay. Okay. And then you get your weekly cycle low as back here. I don't want to have to miss all of that. But I want to stay vigilant because it won't actually take a lot here to say that's not the low. Sentiment didn't match just like gold has just shown us and new lows could be coming. Now that's not my base case at the moment. Let me be clear. But if the following conditions occur, it becomes my base case. If this daily cycle load confirms, left translates, prints a lower high, and then fails, then I would say it's 80% probability the low's not in. And this is just a complete repeat of what we've just seen in the precious metal markets, wherein lots of people fomoed in here. Instead of enjoy their gains, they ran around clowning on people for being sidelined and then just a short few weeks later, they all got their pants pulled down and they're all about to be in a loss as we sweep the lows. I do wonder if that's coming. But like I said, I don't want to approach the market with that attitude because that is how you get locked out. We saw that last cycle. Lots of people were saying one more dip and then I'll buy and it did all of this hovered around 25K and they were all saying yeah one more dip and then I'll buy and then it popped up to like 50k and then they pivoted to 702 retrace selling the whole stack or whatever. I don't know. But the point is I don't want this to happen and then be up here and be like hm never really managed to get any spot. So, like I said, this for me is a buying opportunity. This for me is going to be dipping my toes in the water, getting some allocation, and then, you know, I don't really care if it goes higher, ABC's back into the weekly cycle low. I just get the rest of the allocation there. And if it does this and fails, well, we'll pay a stop and buy the actual low and then also get to look back on this and say, well, yeah, that made a lot of sense. So in either case, just going to try to position myself for all eventualities, try to profit from the market whether it goes up, down, or in circles. But this is in theory pretty close to a daily cycle low now and should yield a new higher high. Remember, if it does yield a higher high, then congratulations to everyone that bought the lows cuz you have an 80% probability of being correct here that the low was early. A bunch of these higher beaters looking like they've also got buy the dip opportunities. So that should be fun. Over the next couple of weeks, 10ear yield looks like it has finally topped, doesn't it? So that's cool. and TLT has been finally trying to force this bottom. So, almost there. Cycles doing cycle things. No changes to the Dixie. Dixie is still pushing higher, following my yellow squiggle roughly speaking. And lots of people are still trying to be bearish here on the Dixie. And whilst anything and everything's on the table all the time, the reality is this 3ear cycle low occurred in around late January 2026. Typically, you would get at least 12 to 18 months of rally here. doesn't have to go this high, but just has to be trending higher for about 12 to 18 months before it will then roll over and head for the next threeear cycle low. And so far, it's really only been about 9 months of rally. Okay? So, we may only be halfway through the amount of time here before we can actually get a top in the Dixie, but I know there's a lot of people out there that are calling for this to happen imminently. And it's just not typical. I mean, it doesn't mean it couldn't happen. And it just means generally speaking, if you go back and look at how long the Dixie rallies for after it leaves behind these threeear cycle lows, you know, pretty much all of the time it does at least a year to 18 months worth of upside before it then heads down for its next threeear cycle low. So, it's just worth being aware of the behavior of the instrument. And the behavior of the instrument says you're kind of swimming against the tide here if you're calling for an imminent collapse of the Dixie. So, that is pretty much it from me. I think in conclusion, things still seem to be roughly speaking going according to plan. My big concern, as I said a million times this week is that something might go bang and kind of spoil the party. But so long as the half cycle lows in the equity markets can continue to bounce in the following few days, then really there's nothing wrong with the charts despite how bearish it might feel out there, regardless of what happens to the equity markets. Cycles are cycles and thus they are tradable for me in the likes of Bitcoin. So if you're a level three member, look out for that. the precious metals. I think I'm just waiting to sweep the lows and then we can start setting up some trades from there. And then the bond market in theory, the rate should have topped, the bond should have bottomed, and it should be time for a new bond ball. So, all in good time, one day at a time as always. Have a fantastic weekend. All the best from me. Cheers. Bye. >> No fear, no shame. sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the market key on a bumpy rideot.