We're So Back

Yeah. [music] [music] Heat. [music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared TO LOSE IT ALL. ALL RIGHT. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and this week is shaping up to be, dare I say, uneventful. [laughter] That is until Friday when we've got the CPI data and something tells me this is going to be the catalyst that ignites the repricing in either direction for this. So, I'm guessing if it's hot, we're going to see this creep higher and if it's cold, we're going to see this ultimately go this way. I think something about what I'm calling for is wrong somewhere. And I'll tell you why. The call is that they're actually not going to hike rates and this is going to repric this way. Okay. And if that's true, fine. This part's correct. And that would fit with the stocks rallying. That would fit with gold rallying. But it wouldn't really fit with Bitcoin continuing this fouryear cycle. So I probably, you know, I kind of have to be wrong about Bitcoin in this scenario. The rate hikes would make sense from a weekly cycle top approaching in the yields. That would make sense. Okay. This would essentially be the bond market forcing the Fed to hike anyway. That's what was going on here. And then maybe after we get that hike out the way, we can finally see this pattern roll over and then that's conducive to a bond ball and you know everything apart from Bitcoin in this scenario would have been right and I would have been wrong about Bitcoin or we get the hotter CPI print. Okay, we end up actually seeing a hike which you hear my tone of voice there. It's like I almost can't believe this is even a conversation we're having. But if this is what we were to see a repric in this direction above 85% pretty much cementing that this is what we'll be getting then you know rate hike environment would be okay yeah cycles in control bitcoin's going to do this gold would probably get a much lower low set again that would be expected before then we can turn around the stocks will probably get shaken out decline into their daily cycle low around that mid to late September time frame and then be ready to go and then that makes me kind of wrong on this right wrong on bond market, but that doesn't make sense either because this is topping for a weekly cycle when the seven and a half year cycle is bottoming for TLT. So, I guess I would just be wrong about the rates. But do you see what I mean? Something is not right here. Okay. And I understand that something like one of these components at least has to be wrong. So, it's going to be interesting to see how we get that unless unless and this is crazy, right? But what if we get the coldest CPI print, this reprices this way, all the other calls play out, including Bitcoin, right? So then we just get Bitcoin moving lower whilst the bonds, the stocks, and the metals rally. It would be the ultimate FU trade to the cryptocurrency kiddies, wouldn't it? And Wall Street would be once again back in the driver's seat. You would have to think sentiment in that scenario is completely destroyed because for a lot of this time in here, the crypto guys were like, "Oh, this is so unfair. This is supposed to be the best performing asset class. Where's my alt season? Where's my 100x gains? Why is gold and gold miners outperforming most of my altcoins? How come the stocks just keep going up every single day with very minimal pullbacks?" This is not what people signed up for crypto for, right? And now finally, you can see it in the sentiment. They're like, "Ha, told you so. I told you so, bro. Here we go. We're so back, baby." Okay. And they might be right if we break out. But if we don't, you got to think many of them are going to quit. Okay? They didn't quit yet because they haven't really seen anything nasty to deal with, right? This is the shortest bare market in both duration and draw down Bitcoin's ever experienced. But can you imagine what will happen here if this actually continues to play whilst the stocks and gold keep ripping higher? Because remember, most people like the camel crew don't care cuz we trade all of this stuff, right? If two out of three are going to run, then it's fine. We'll profit from the two out of three that are running. But most people don't do that. They just choose one altcoin and make it their entire personality. And so, you've got to think those people are going to be extremely close to quitting if we get a rollover from here. So, super interesting times. I'm kind of leaning on the idea at the moment that one of these components at least is wrong. I've misread one of these. And so, the good news is we'll get to understand which one that is. we'll get to figure out where I've gone wrong and which one of these components is wrong within the next how many days is it until the 16th. So about a week or so and we'll be there. So once again I do actually expect this but I'm open to everything as always. If the inflation print can't get the rates to repric in that direction then the Treasury is going to do it themselves with a bigger buyback perhaps five to six billion putting long-term bonds in focus. A bigger buyback could reduce net longdated debt supply and help contain elevated yields. Okay, so if the yields do not do what they're supposed to do and move lower, signaling a bottom in the bond market, then the Treasury is going to force the bottom in the bond market. I still maintain cycles doing cycled things. It's interesting that they've started to do this into a seven and a half year cycle for the long end. Okay, just saying. Bitcoin, however, is still the complete opposite of interesting, isn't it? It's still just absolutely driving everyone insane. It's boring people to death. It still hasn't done anything. The bulls are making the case this is a high and tight flag ready to bust higher. The bears are saying it's still a lower high and it's probably going to b its way back down. And at the moment, no one knows. We need the direction to be revealed by the market, but I think it soon will. Okay, I think we soon going to even know, aren't we, if we're above the red or if we've started to pull down away from it. So hopefully not a great deal longer to wait there. I have woken up this morning to a lot of misinformation online. Okay, people are saying things like the golden cross formation has previously led to an all-time high. Okay, but if you've been in Bitcoin any more than two weeks, you should know, bro. [laughter] This what the Oh, the simulation will do everything in its power to try to get you to give it your energy, won't it? I was so distracted. So, golden crosses historically on traditional finance and traditional TA are bullish, okay? But not in Bitcoin. Bitcoin tends to dump into golden crosses and pump into bearish crosses, right? Or death crosses, as they're often called. So, this is way out of context. This this is nonsense, frankly. Okay, he's picked the one time that we went on to new highs. But notice first we even did this. Okay, so are we going to do this first? Probably. And Ben's got the actual data here, right? Bitcoin usually dumps at golden crosses. But what's more telling is the bounce after the golden cross dump is over. In 19 and 23, Bitcoin dumped into a golden cross and then put in a higher high, thus confirming the end of the bare market. But in 1415, Bitcoin dumped into a golden cross and then put in a lower high and continued a bare trend. So if we achieve a higher high, it would likely correspond with a weekly close over the 50we SMA, which is a good predictor of bare market being over. But a lower high here and rejection at the 50we would be a sign that Q4 lows are right on schedule. And we're also seeing this again. Markets have short memories. Camels do not. Okay, and this isn't even that long ago. This is April we're talking about, right? Who remembers the posts where people were saying, "This is not a bare market rally. It's pumped too hard." And we've got it again. Bitcoin recovering 35% from the lows signals the end of the bare market. Does it? Haven't we heard this before back in April? Do you see what I mean about markets having short memories? I bet there's a lot of people going, "Oh yeah, I remember this. 31% isn't a bare market rally." Okay, but it is. And it was and it still might be. Jan to March 22, Bitcoin did a 46% bare market rally. 46% here to here, okay? Only to then dump. And then we got 26ish% only to dump again. And then we got 42% only to come down another 40% into the lows. This is a very volatile asset. Just saying my opinion is 30% off the lows doesn't signal a bare market continuation. It's just plucking data out of thin air, right? It's just it's just waffle. It doesn't mean anything. And once again, I'm going to let Ben do the work for me here because he's already said it. So, why don't I just let him say it? Okay, I'll play you a clip of a clip for about a minute or so in here. Check this out. The final low historically is the low that occurs in the fourth quarter of the year. So, after you set the February low, you get your counter trend rally. Then you set the summer low and you get your counter trend rally. But they tend to stall out and then we go back down one more time. and and really if you look at at sort of the nature of the recent rally that we had, you know, it was about a 40% move, right? So, it's not like it's nothing to scoff at. It it was a strong move. There's always a chance the low is in and we can probably I'll assign a probability of that in a second, but what what I'm seeing right now is a 40% rally from the summer low. And so, I have to ask myself, is that out of the ordinary? And I go back to 2022 and I say, "All right, well, in 2022, we had a 40% rally off the summer low." In fact, in 2022, Bitcoin rallied more than it just did. Uh, and then we still went down into the FTX low that occurred in the fourth quarter. And then in 2018 from the summer low, we also rallied over 40% more than we rallied so far from this summer low. And yet, we still went lower in Q4. So, I think the difficult part about this is that like obviously >> everyone would prefer the low to be in. Um, so then everyone can just get bullish and we can go back to like the good times and whatnot. >> It it's hard. I mean, after going through three midterm years >> uh in Bitcoin, it's difficult to just want to boldly declare that the low is in when I know that had you done that in the prior midterm years at this time, you would have been wrong. Um, >> so I think that's kind of what's holding you back. In terms of probabilities, though, it's not like it's clear-cut. I would I would say it's probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it's behind us. >> So, there you have it. Right, it makes me wonder where people are getting their ideas, right? Where are people pulling these numbers from? Okay, because certainly not from price history, certainly not from prior behavior. I don't really think they're founded in data. I think there seems to be something weird going on in which due to a big green candle a lot of people I think have perhaps lost their ability to think as critically as they normally would. Okay, I'm just saying that's just my read. I could be wrong. It could be me that has lost my ability to think critically. We'll find out soon enough. I woke up this morning. I was looking through the timeline and I was like, "What is going on here? What is going on?" Kind of like how this keeps catching my eye. Like what is [laughter] what is going on here? Oh dear. Not today, Satan. All right, so let's try to be a bit more serious. The reality is so far Bitcoin hasn't really done anything to confirm the low is in. It's a good start for sure, but the truth is it's absent of a higher high and there's probably going to be at least some degree of pullback here, if not soon after. So stay vigilant, stay open to everything, and let's just keep taking this thing one day at a time. I also found this. We are 60% of the way through this current h havinging. Time flies because it seems like only yesterday we were celebrating the hing and the fact we made an all-time high pre-h havinging which was a call that people thought was insane but that one actually came to fruition. But take a look what happens. 60% completes and soon after price takes a significant decrease. We get 60% through here. Okay. And soon after we hot knife that 6k level that had been previously thought of as an impenetrable floor price for Bitcoin. 60% complete here and we pop up a little bit and then dump and at the hard right edge. Okay, we're about to waddle into the white space which historically means some kind of decline to new lows is just around the corner. So either that's true and fine, Yellow Google remains firmly in control, or this time is different, and I'm not one of these people that says nothing can ever be different because sometimes things are different. In fact, as we just kind of touched on, the all-time high pre-h havinging was different. Okay? And a lot of people use the, "Oh, you're saying this time is different," as an attack vector or as an argument against what I was suggesting about getting the all-time high pre-harving because they said it's never done that before. But just because something's not happened before doesn't mean it could never happen in the future. Okay, this was different. It was the first time we'd ever seen an all-time high pre-H having. And it is emphatic evidence that occasionally things can be different. So maybe this time is different, too. And maybe this time we don't need new lows as we cross that 60% threshold for the half in completion. But typically speaking, betting on this time it being different is not usually the highest probability in markets. Okay, so just another point of interest for people that like to do the mental gymnastics and think about every possible outcome. I think the bull case is extremely clear and obvious. We break through this red line, which I've termed the most important level in finance, and it's time to get pretty bullish pretty quickly, isn't it? Yes, there will be pullbacks along the way. Markets don't move in straight lines, but bust through here, pretty much every dip is for buying, okay? Whether it's a daily cycle low or weekly cycle low, every dip is for buying. And we're in a new bull market, and it's time to scramble to acquire a bunch of higher beaters before this market goes to, frankly, what I think will be unfathomable numbers. I've been in this space for a long, long time. remember I bought my first bitcoins back here. And so the idea that seemingly overnight we could be 100x from the first prices I ever traded. You know that is wild to me. That is absolutely wild. So don't get it twisted. Like I want this a lot. Okay. This is just good for the channel. It's good for the community. This is good for me and my ability to profit from cycles because believe it or not cycles resolve to profit more often than not in a bull market. And in a bare market, the cycles are expected to fail, which is where my stop losses go. So, in a bare market, I'm going to pay a lot more stops than usual. I'm going to really suffer to outperform the indexes. It's going to be really hard for me to do that. It's I'm going to have to work hard for it. And if we're about to enter a new bull market and we're about to do something like this, okay, remember most people, they're not very good at trading, but in an environment like that, I do extremely well. So, don't get it twisted, right? I am not a bear here. I am not like, ah, I just I'm not buying this dip, right? I don't believe it. I'm going to stay bearish. I'm going to be angry and short the market the whole way. I'm not like that at all. Right? I'm a huge bull. I'm often accused of being a permable during bull market conditions. And I'm often bullish for too long after the top. So, I want this more than anyone. Believe me. Okay? Like things are just going to get extremely good for me and for the rest of the camel crew during something like this. But at the same time, opinions don't really mean anything, right? Feelings don't really mean anything and they're certainly not going to help you be a good trader. What you need is an edge and you stick to the edge and you keep your risk managed. Okay, that's the only way you're going to survive. A lot of people do really well for a while during bull market conditions, but because they don't have risk management, because they don't know about sector risk or progressive exposure and earning the right to trade bigger and this kind because they don't know this stuff, right? They just make a bunch of money, they conclude they're untouchable and then the first big pullback takes them out, you know, and it's a horrible game. It's a horrible, horrible game. Most people are zoomed in slave to one minute candles and I don't want any of that for any of us. But all I am saying is that is absolutely a lower high. That means the yellow squiggles in play for now. Okay? If it changes, it changes. And believe me, daytime drinking's coming back. [laughter] Popping champagne's coming back, right? Bull market camera will be back. And you know, we're getting there, but we're just not there yet. The stocks, I am noticing bearish sentiment and a big wall of worry here, right? I'm even having people start to do that caps locks thing like you're an idiot calling for higher highs in the stocks or whatever. I can see people kind of irritated about this. But the reality is again, look at this. It's just doing that, you know, unless it starts to make significant lower lows, then tell me why this couldn't be a thing. And I think the sentiment matches for this nicely. Yes, we might have to grind out until about the 21st of September. Okay, that's normal and to be expected. Same for the metals. Okay, they're in the middle of their two drives pattern. Okay, a lot of people got annoyed about this. A lot of people were like, "Oh, you missed the lows." Well, it doesn't really look like it, does it? At the moment, once this two drives pattern completes somewhere to either a retest or to back down here, you know, anywhere in this neighborhood, then ultimately I would have had a plan, stuck to it, okay, and proven beyond any reasonable doubt that you can stick to an edge and a system and ignore the noise and ignore the FOMO and ignore the people that are trolling over being sidelined, okay, and all of this stuff. And I can just gradually build my exposure back, okay? And then in a blink of an eye, because time flies, we'll be up here somewhere and everyone will be like, "Oh, camel, it's it's lucky for you. You bought the lows, right? It's not luck. It's hard. It's hard work. This is not easy." Okay? It's hard for me. And I've been doing this forever. I've been doing this my whole adult life. This is all I know. It's all I do. And it's still really difficult. Okay? It still sucks all the time. But that's what makes it worthwhile. If it were easy, everyone would do it. And there would be no value there. Bitcoin, wake me up when we cross the red line. Okay. And ETH. Oh yeah, Camelowitz made a higher low. I don't care, bro. Okay. It's a higher high. Yes, but it's also a higher beta, which means it's going to move in the same direction as Bitcoin, but to higher degrees. So, this doesn't mean anything without Bitcoin breaking its higher high. Okay? All it means is that if Bitcoin is about to do the bar, then this is about to come down even harder and probably fail its fouryear cycle low. And if of course this is leading, then it will continue to lead and Bitcoin will soon be busting out through that red line. But at the moment, as we've said, every day for weeks, it still has yet to do that. Yields should be topping for the weekly cycle within the next I think we're on about two weeks now. If we go to a weekly time frame, once this trend line breaks, that's it. Okay, tops in for the weekly cycle and the multi-year cycle. And we could do the same on the inverse for TLT, right? Once this one here breaks, then it will be time to do something like this, won't it? Okay, multi-year cycle in Treasury about to do yield curve control. Perfect narrative alignment right in time for the cycle bottom. You know, things are looking good, right? Things are looking good. Semiconductors, they're pushing, aren't they? That members setup that I gave the members, seam tech, that's looking pretty good, too. This is a weekly time frame, but here's a daily. Like semis are getting ready to bust. Same with this. So, yes, there might be a bit of chop. We might have to get to the 19th or the 21st, 22nd of September. But this consolidation period in the stocks, the semis, the leaders, the AI is nearly over. Okay? And that means that yellow squiggle for the stocks is coming. The only real question is, like I said right at the start, am I wrong about this or am I wrong about Bitcoin? I've got to think I'm wrong about one of them. So, one day at a time, open to everything as always. Look, if you want to take trading more seriously, then click here in about 10 seconds. At least have a look around the free trial, okay? is totally free for 2 weeks. You can actually leave with some free stuff to keep forever and it won't cost you anything. Read the reviews. See what other people are saying and do it by clicking here in 10 seconds. Otherwise, I'll see you tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. [singing] [music] >> Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking [music] to his guns in [singing] this money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. 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