We're So Back !!

So better catch them today than tomorrow. So in that way we're making progress. Actual real value that's pushing humanity forward is being >> sort of a let's just call it what it is. It was sort of a fear reaction. We were having sort of a fear reaction um that caused us to suddenly our entire lives became >> and I see that peg start to go to the 98 cent bound um or whatever it may be. And that was like the point where once it reach 98 cents they start to liquidate the bitcoin. It's been a little minute, but we're back. Back. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creators only do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you're prepared to lose it all. >> All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and it would seem that we are back. It has been a while, but it seems like it's finally time. Bitcoin has triggered the invalidation level on continued downside. This does introduce a little bit more complexity in the market than I would have liked, but we can scratch off that bearish count now and we can start to look for the upcoming weekly cycle low to be a higher low pullback. Now, with that said, the annoying thing about this is there is also this possible expanded flat correction, okay, which would still get us down into the 4-year lows. And if we were to do this, we would actually have to put this squiggle back on the table. But I don't really want to entertain that for now because we got a breakout. We got invalidation here. And so, I want to instead be looking to buy any higher low pullback. And this is the same for altcoins if you're that way inclined. is the same for the likes of Micro Strategy and these other kind of higher beta assets. Of course, you can FOMO in here, okay? But nothing moves in straight lines. There will be a weekly cycle low to buy. And we're now in that environment I've been mentioning for a little while now, which is if we get that invalidation triggered, then it's a I'm buying every dip going forward environment. The major pivot lows from here on out should resolve to higher lows and that's how we get the uptrend. So, I'm looking forward to getting some positions on. I've already got more than I've had in a while on which I'll show you at the end as always. But I'm going to go with this now as the base case until proven otherwise. And then of course the question will be how low does this pullback come? It's also true that this pullback should be primary two meaning the rally that follows this pullback should be the biggest, the most powerful, the strongest and I would argue taking us well and comfortably into the six figure neighborhood. So for me this is a buy the dip opportunity. I'm getting ready to get an allocation here. And as I was just about to mention a minute ago, it's really a case now of figuring out how low this pullback will come. I'm seeing all sorts of ideas here. It could be that we're in the process of forming this new higher high and then we get a shakeout to sweep these lows. I think if we get something approximating this, it would still be close enough to the lows to call it the lows. And what's interesting is a lot of people in this community have been talking about this as well. there's lots and lots of confluence around the kind of 88 to 89K level before then we get a bigger shakeout and correction. Now, if this is an expanded flat pattern, that means we could come up as high as 89ishk and then come down and sweep the lows. Now, let me be clear. I don't really want to have this as my base case yet. If we do, I think it's nice and easy to deal with. I think if we start to see this play out, okay, the tell will be the lower high and then the failed cycle here. Okay. So, instead of getting that kind of ABC back and then pushing up to higher highs, we would get this kind of ABC back left translate and fail the daily cycle and then that would be the trigger to say, "Okay, we're putting this yellow squiggle back on the table." Okay? But I don't want to do that because I'm inherently bullish all of the time, right? I would much rather be attacking this current market from a bullish bias perspective until proven otherwise. So unless we get those failed cycles show up, I don't really want to have to entertain putting this squiggle back on the table. So it is nice and simple, right? We get that left translation and failure in the daily cycle and it has to be this. Okay. And I think there would be a lot of confluence around other asset classes cycle lows for this neighborhood too. But for now, like I said, I am going to operate from a position and a posture of expecting a higher low followed by higher highs here. So, in either case, we expect to move up towards kind of 90-ishk, let's say, over the coming week or two, and then we're going to get a pullback again is another idea here that would get us back down towards 70K. And again, if we can get back down here, then I think that's still close enough to the lows to call it the lows. I mean, if you think about it, if you were a range break buyer here, I think most people would say, "Yeah, that's close enough to the bottom to call it the bottom." So, if we can come back ever so slightly above that and then go, not really much different if you ask me. And this is why I'm so happy to exercise patience rather than FOMO in here because I know that nothing moves in straight lines and pullbacks will arrive. And the only real thing for me to focus on here is trading the system, waiting for the pullbacks to show up and then getting my allocation whilst having a high probability setup and a low on the chart to manage the risk around. So it's the same stuff as always. I know people see this and they go, "Oh no, I've ruined it. We're never going to get an entry and the market's going to go up in a straight line, never come back." But typically speaking, that's not how markets work. Here's another idea, right? We may well be just putting in this fifth wave up, okay, before then having a nasty correction to sweep all these lows, come back down somewhere in this kind of neighborhood, which for Bitcoin would be somewhere between 70 and 65K perhaps. And then that again, notice just like in this prior cycle here, because this is back in 2023, once that low is in, we never came close to it, right? So, as long as we can get an entry around this low, manage the risk around that low, that low should remain intact and we should be up only from there on out. And then again, we can just use the weekly cycle pivots again to stack more positions and get more exposure. And before too much longer, everyone will forget what's going on here. The people that FOMO in and most probably get their pants pulled down on the first good pullback and shakeout. And as we know from Bitcoin's behavior, it loves to have these violent shakeouts. And we typically would expect the first pullback, if this is primary one into primary two, to elicit severely negative sentiment. Often times the wave 2 pullback elicits worse sentiment than at the lows. And then again the key thing to watch for, okay, is once we get this pullback allocate in here, use the low to manage risk around. And so long as we don't see left trans and failure, then we can tick this off and say there we go in close enough to the bottom to call at the bottom. Ready for a buy every dip environment. Ready for a new bull market. And pretty soon we should hopefully all be jumping up and down and celebrating and having a party. So we're nearly there. Very nearly there. Again, I can say all of these same things about altcoins or Ethereum or Micro Strategy or any of those higher beta assets. Our only job right now, okay, is to look for that first good pullback. Whether it forms just as shallow as this, okay, and then pushes or whether it comes much lower or even lower still is kind of irrelevant, right? We just got to use the cycles to get us in. And then once we've got that low in, like I've said a million times, I will use that low to manage the risk around and be ready for a new bull run. Just before we get into the TA trades, live positions, all of that good stuff, I found this and I just wanted to give the camel crew OGs that have been here a long time a little nod because it may finally be time if we're going to get this blowoff top fractal play out in the stock market, which I'll show you in a moment. And during the live stream yesterday, which if you haven't seen, feel free to go back and catch up on, there was a brief mention about somebody switching from day trading to swing trading after watching this channel and having significantly better performance. And it reminded me of this chart. It's probably one of my favorite charts in all of existence. Okay, this really shows you the edge of swing trading versus day trading. At the top, these are the gains made in the spy ETF outside of regular hours, okay? versus what's made inside of regular hours. So, this is day traders, right? Playing in the middle for a market that doesn't really move. And if you can swing trade, hold the overnight positions, this is where all of the gains are made because we tend to see the market move up overnight. And this is why swing trading is so much more powerful than intraday. So, where are we on the charts? Right at the moment, the Dixie squiggle looks pretty much like it's still in play to me. I don't really see any problem with this at the moment. The indicator found the daily and weekly cycle low in real time and it will soon be seeking another one. No problem there. The yields are about to top for a weekly cycle and then we get to find out whether or not we are going to actually have a good and significant correction here. Marking this as a quick liquidity sweep and a top signal into that one and done rate hike situation or whether we're just going to get a kind of weekly cycle low pullback here and then continue higher. If we do this one then we have to invalidate my call on this idea. But either way, we do know a weekly cycle top is imminent as denoted by the breer and the weekly count. For the inverse of this trade, which is the TLT long, it looks a lot to me, doesn't it? If I grab a magnifying glass and put it down here, you can see this is starting to turn up. Okay, this is imminently about to cross for a new weekly cycle with the trap, with the sweep of the lows as expected. So, so long as we can get back inside of this box and start to push higher, I think we've not only got a weekly cycle low in here, but we're about to have a bullish divergence on the monthly time frame, signaling the bottom is in for the 7 and 1/2 year cycle. And then it should be a case to see the most contrarian trade out there at the moment, which is bullish bonds start to come to fruition. Of course, once that low is in and confirmed, we can set that low as invalidation because any cycle failure thereafter would be invalidation on the bull setup. The semiconductor trades continue to push, right? Starting to challenge towards the highs here and SEC a clear leader already through the highs. We've got SMH pushing up as well. So things are looking good there. And speaking of the ability to drag these indices higher, we also have MAGs breaking out of a base here. Okay, this is the Mag 7, remember? Looking like they want higher. And so if we're going to have continued leadership, semis, mags, etc. moving higher then the idea that this insano berserko S&P 500 fractal could come to fruition I think is still very much on the table right so I still think this is what is in play until proven otherwise unless we see failed cycles or severe trend line breakdowns I'm going to stand with this and continue to expect this market to steepen into a top by the time we get up here we will be severely right translated in the stock market cycle and thus we'd expect a hard and fast correction but for now it seems to me like this is what we are doing. If I remove this fractal really quickly, so you can see we're within pips of the highs here. So, we've been saying sentiment doesn't match for a top here and there was a lot of nervousness in the market. So, to see this come to fruition, I think would make a lot of sense. In the level three member section, we've been layering some positions on out of the daily cycle lows here. So, hopefully we can continue to get some pushes and then we'll see if we can get up into this kind of 40k neighborhood. Sounds insane, but I don't think it's super insane given that it would really just kind of be this. I think maybe slightly higher. I think we can do this. As crazy as it might sound, I really think we can. And if we can, it does of course bring us back to the VIX. Can the VIX finally make it down into that pocket where hedges become mandatory? Meanwhile, oil continues to stage that fake breakout at the top. Okay, it loves to do this. It loves to get people to FOMO in and chase this move and have absurdly high targets based on what the news is telling them to think before ultimately resuming downwards, which I still believe is going to do that. Maybe this fractal ends up kind of not being that close and get more of this kind of situation unfold, but I'm still very confident in this call. There could be many paths it takes in the meantime, but I don't think oil is going to clear these highs and continue to move up. I still think it's seeking a low later in the year or even Q1 of next year. Again, that would bring it in line with that stock market fractal, wouldn't it? It would also bring it in line with a major pivot for Bitcoin down towards here. Whether it's a higher low like I'm sort of expecting at this point or a lower low remains to be seen, but we kind of already covered what we got to do with Bitcoin, right? Buy any pullback and then watch for left translation and failure in the daily cycle. So long as we don't get that, it's a new bull market. All dips of a buy and happy days, we're all going to have a party. And then, as I said before, all of this can be copy and pasted onto Micro Strategy and Ethereum and everything else. It's the same setup. So first good pullback is really the last opportunity to get in anywhere towards the lows before then we get a big aggressive bull market. And of course if that allocation resolves to left transm failure then it brings back into play this. But as I said a million times already I don't want to have this as the base case because if you're not flexible enough to say well there's my invalidation here time to get bullish. That is how you can find yourself in a situation where you're fighting a trend and constantly sidelined and never able to get in and permanently rage shorting and revenge shorting the market. You don't want to be like that in my experience. Okay? Once the invalidation hits, you just say, "Well, there it is. Invalidations exist for a reason and now it's time to flip bullish." So, like I said, this is the count now. This is what I'm operating under the assumption will happen. And of course, this has an invalidation to, as I said before, left trans and failure brings us down to the ultimate low. In either case, I expect sentiment to be bad on this first good correction. I expect a lot of people to get sour and to give up on stuff because most people FOMO in in this neighborhood and then they get their pants pulled down. Particularly if they are to be trading this current breakout, you'd think it's only reasonable for these breakout traders here to be getting long on the breakout with a stop below these lows. Okay? So, for them to start to push into profit only to come down and be stopped out as we sweep these lows, something approximating this, you can see how that would really cause a lot of people pain, right? They're in pain because they missed the move off the lows and they don't have any confidence in their ability to find a better entry. They FOMO in at the top only to watch the market come down and sweep to a new lower low, running all their stops. They then have to conclude that was all a bull trap and that new lows are imminent. And then of course they have to suffer even more pain as that next leg up ensues. So remember FOMO or feeling sidelined or whatever is really a reflection on your lack of confidence in your ability to find another setup. The people that care the least are the people that know there'll be another dip and they can capitalize on that secondary dip. So wild times are upon us. I am now bullish until something fails. If you want to get started with all things cycles, you want to grab an indicator to help you find the high probability swings, then click here in about 10 seconds. And other than that, I will see you guys tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the market key ride.